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 Tracking the Lion's Selection Order 
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Blueskies wrote:
Okay so this list adds a very interesting dimensions to the whole QB/LT debate and the odds of trading down.

Neither the Bengals nor the Chiefs would dare take a left tackle. The Sea hawks could, but I doubt it. Walter Jones is under a $50mln contract until 2012.

Orlando Pace could play out for a few more years, but he has been injured the last few seasons. The Rams could easily grab Oher or Smith.

Then the Raiders pick. The smart thing would be to take one of the two tackles. But it's Al Davis.

Assuming STL takes one and Oakland passes, the Jags are the next likely candidate to take a tackle.

Now for the QB analysis:

Bengals won't. Chiefs definitely, definitely will. Seahawks, maybe. Rams, Raiders--no. 49ers yes. Chargers, Jags, Browns--no.

Trading down:

Pretty much two options. If the Lions say they'll take Oher--STL will not trade up, they'll just wait and take Smith (who some say is a better prospect). So there exists two scenarios. In either the case the Lions need to say that they're going to draft Stafford.

Scenario 1: Swap picks with the Chiefs. Ask for their 2nd as compensation. At #3, Oher will still be available. Draft him.

Scenario 2: Swap picks with the 49ers. Pick up a 2nd, 3rd, next year's first. Would lose out on the top two QBs. Definitely one of the top two tackles, possibly both. But pick up a ton of picks. I don't know if the 49ers would make this trade.

If I had my way, I'd try for the first trade down scenario. You'd still get an elite tackle, then have another first, two seconds, and two thirds. The Lions could grab a project QB with the Dallas pick and four talented defensive rookies.



Good post with interesting options. I believe the only way KC trades up is if Bradford comes out, from what I have been reading about Stafford he is not worth the reach at #1 and KC could get him by staying at 3. I don't believe the Lions would take him at 1. But I could see them taking Bradford at 1. If they were to trade down to SF, and pick up an extra 2nd and 4th or the equivelent, that would be great. We need the extra picks and at 7 we could possibly get the top MLB or SLB, both are huge needs and we could stock the O-line with the late 1st, early 2nd.


December 9th, 2008, 1:33 pm
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Okay so some alterations to my previous post:

After doing some further research, this unknown named Tyler Thigpen has emerged as a legitimate QB. It's unlikely the Chiefs would take a QB, or consequently trade up to get one with all the other problems they have. Since they took Brandon Albert last year to be their LT, I have to believe they go defense.


December 9th, 2008, 7:16 pm
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I'm not so sure they'd pass on Stafford of Bradford if they come out this year, but I doubt they move up to get them. Thigpen has been serviceable but he's only completing around 55% of his passes. Shaun Hill has a better chance of holding his starting spot in SF than Thigpen in KC next season.

It's just not a good year for Detroit to move down even if they were willing to trade the pick at a bargain price. Unless just Stafford or Bradford come out and there is only one QB to choose from in the top five there likely won't be much desire for that #1 spot. With the depth at LT in this year's draft you won't see teams trying to leapfrog to the #1 spot to get their guy. If anything this is the year to have the second or third pick. One of those teams will likely get multiple offers especially based on what Detroit does with the #1 pick. Detroit's only real opportunity to move back is if both those QBs declare.


December 9th, 2008, 7:51 pm
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Can Bradford leave after only his sophomore season?

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December 9th, 2008, 8:54 pm
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markdh92 wrote:
Can Bradford leave after only his sophomore season?


Yeah I'm 99% sure he can. He redshirted I think.


December 9th, 2008, 8:59 pm
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Oh, ok. And is Stafford really expected to be that high a draft pick? He didn't seem very impressive this year. What about QBs like Harrell and Daniel?

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December 9th, 2008, 9:03 pm
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markdh92 wrote:
Oh, ok. And is Stafford really expected to be that high a draft pick? He didn't seem very impressive this year. What about QBs like Harrell and Daniel?


Lol, there 'system qbs'

The biggest BS I hear. I don't understand how the system your in changes your arm strength and accuracy when you join the NFL. It's more of them not getting a chance to prove themselves in the NFL and not the fact that they suck.

If I owned an NFL team my QB ranks would probably be along the lines: Sam Bradford, Graham Harrell, Nate Davis, Chase Daniel, Matt Stafford.

Stafford is like Jay Cutler, but I don't think a Jay Cutler type is really fit for the Lions right now or next season no matter who they get. Cutler makes alot of mistakes, just like Stafford does in college. They have very good arms but decision making is iffy.


December 9th, 2008, 9:35 pm
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Quote:
I don't understand how the system your in changes your arm strength and accuracy when you join the NFL.


It doesn't. However, there is much much more to being a QB than arm strength and accuracy. NFL QBs are called signal callers for a reason. They have to be able to asses defenses, make reads, and even change the play call in certain instances.

They have to have the intelligence and quick thinking skills to be able to do that. System QBs aren't given the opportunity to prove whether or not they can do those things.

I'd be like saying a basketball player would make a good PG because he can pass and shoot well. It isn't that easy.


December 9th, 2008, 10:07 pm
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I understand that, but if you got a guy that can make all the throws you should be able to develope him into a top notch QB. I know Bradford does alot at the line, whether he is assisted in it or not I'm not sure.


December 9th, 2008, 10:12 pm
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hamma77 wrote:
markdh92 wrote:
Can Bradford leave after only his sophomore season?


Yeah I'm 99% sure he can. He redshirted I think.


Yea Bradford is a redshirt sophomore so after this season he will meet the "3 years removed from high school" rule to enter the NFL draft.

I think he is going to be the best QB of the bunch but would benefit from another year in school.

Anyway back on topic. Cowboys need to keep up the losing so that pick gets into the teens.


December 9th, 2008, 11:16 pm
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hamma77 wrote:
markdh92 wrote:
Oh, ok. And is Stafford really expected to be that high a draft pick? He didn't seem very impressive this year. What about QBs like Harrell and Daniel?


Lol, there 'system qbs'

The biggest BS I hear. I don't understand how the system your in changes your arm strength and accuracy when you join the NFL. It's more of them not getting a chance to prove themselves in the NFL and not the fact that they suck.

If I owned an NFL team my QB ranks would probably be along the lines: Sam Bradford, Graham Harrell, Nate Davis, Chase Daniel, Matt Stafford.

Stafford is like Jay Cutler, but I don't think a Jay Cutler type is really fit for the Lions right now or next season no matter who they get. Cutler makes alot of mistakes, just like Stafford does in college. They have very good arms but decision making is iffy.



Andre Ware, Ty Detmer, and David Klingler all had adequate "chances" to play in the NFL and prove themselves, but they were "system" guys in college who couldn't adapt to the NFL game.

It is tough to evaluate "system" QBs because of many factors.

The "system" creates favorable conditions for putting up huge stats....and here are some reasons WHY.

#1.....

All of these spread offenses like Missouri, Oklahoma, Hawaii, and others take advantage of the fact that there aren't enough good DBs on each team to cover 4 or 5 WRs.

There are over 100 college teams in the "FBS" division alone, and they only have kids age 18-22 years old to fill their rsoters. That means there are over 400-500 CBs that could be asked to cover these WRs.

Considering that there are only 32 NFL teams, there are only the best 120-150 CBs covering WRs at the NFL level. NFL teams get to pick those CBs from a talent pool of players ranging roughly from 22-31 year olds. These players are the fastest of the college players, and also have more experience and better technique than the average college player.

And that doesn't even account for NFL linebackers being better much better in coverage than college linebackers.

This obviously would indicate that the coverage in the NFL is much tighter, and the "window" for a QB to fit a ball through is much smaller.


#2......

College defenses don't have complex blitz packages like those seen by good NFL defenses. Occasionally, some college teams do run a zone blitz, but they don't have the variety seen by NFL QBs. College defenses certainly aren't allowed to spend as much time on the field to install the types of schemes that the Steelers, Ravens, Patriots, Eagles, or Giants bring at QBs.

The fact that the spread offense makes it more difficult for college defenses to disguise their blitzing only makes it easier on the QB. These players may only have 1 read to make on a given play. It could be as simple as throw to "Z" if they show man coverage, or throw to "X" if they are in zone coverage. A good offensive coordinator will even use motion to tell the QB pre-snap what the coverage will be. Being able to recognize the blitz early makes it easier for the QB to hit the "hot" route.

The point here is that decision-making becomes much more difficult at the NFL level due to complexity of the defenses, as well as the increase in speed of the defensive players.

#3......

The spread offense also reduces the NEED to throw outside the numbers (like a 20 yard comeback route) for many "system" QBs in college.

The spread offense uses more underneath crossing routes, inside hook route by slot WRs, bubble screens, and other shorter routes..... that result in those video-game-like completion percentages that Colt Brennan, Colt McCoy, Chase Daniel, and Sam Bradford achieve.

Many of the "downfield" routes in a spread offense are seam routes or post-routes that are in the middle of the field, which keeps the actual distance the ball travels in the air to a minimum. The longer throws to the outside are often "corner routes" against single coverage, which allows the QB to loft the ball as a touch pass towards the WR. Since the offense has spread the defense so much horizontally, these QBs often face only a single deep safety, and that makes arm strength much less important.

You mentioned that the offense doesn't change the player's arm strength, but the spread offense does hide the fact that Brennan, Bradford, McCoy, and Daniel do not have as strong of an arm as they might appear. They simply aren't asked to make the tough throws that separate the Tom Brady type of QB from a Jeff Garcia. Stafford is receiving more attention because he does have a big-time NFL arm.

While a big-time arm is not always necessary to be a quality NFL QB, the advantage of stretching the field vertically AND from sideline-to-sideline with a strong arm forces the defense to cover more field. When a defense has to be concerned with covering the ENTIRE field, there are more holes in the coverage, and more room to run the ball.



THE BOTTOM LINE:

The fear of "system" QBs is not complete B.S. The majority of QBs who have put up huge stats in college in these favorable systems do not make good transitions to the NFL. It isn't because NFL teams are unwilling to "give them a chance".......otherwise players like Jake Delhomme and Kurt Warner surely wouldn't have been given a chance either.

Most of the "system" QBs simply don't end up having enough arm strength to make it in the NFL (see Detmer, Wuerffel). Others don't seem to be able to read the coverages well in the NFL (see Ware and Klingler).

Like I mentioned, there are NUMEROUS reasons why a high percentage of these players have failed in the NFL, and that is why the NFL scouts are always uneasy with "system" QBs.


December 25th, 2008, 10:47 am
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phunnypharm wrote:
hamma77 wrote:
markdh92 wrote:
Oh, ok. And is Stafford really expected to be that high a draft pick? He didn't seem very impressive this year. What about QBs like Harrell and Daniel?


Lol, there 'system qbs'

The biggest BS I hear. I don't understand how the system your in changes your arm strength and accuracy when you join the NFL. It's more of them not getting a chance to prove themselves in the NFL and not the fact that they suck.

If I owned an NFL team my QB ranks would probably be along the lines: Sam Bradford, Graham Harrell, Nate Davis, Chase Daniel, Matt Stafford.

Stafford is like Jay Cutler, but I don't think a Jay Cutler type is really fit for the Lions right now or next season no matter who they get. Cutler makes alot of mistakes, just like Stafford does in college. They have very good arms but decision making is iffy.



Andre Ware, Ty Detmer, and David Klingler all had adequate "chances" to play in the NFL and prove themselves, but they were "system" guys in college who couldn't adapt to the NFL game.

It is tough to evaluate "system" QBs because of many factors.

The "system" creates favorable conditions for putting up huge stats....and here are some reasons WHY.

#1.....

All of these spread offenses like Missouri, Oklahoma, Hawaii, and others take advantage of the fact that there aren't enough good DBs on each team to cover 4 or 5 WRs.

There are over 100 college teams in the "FBS" division alone, and they only have kids age 18-22 years old to fill their rsoters. That means there are over 400-500 CBs that could be asked to cover these WRs.

Considering that there are only 32 NFL teams, there are only the best 120-150 CBs covering WRs at the NFL level. NFL teams get to pick those CBs from a talent pool of players ranging roughly from 22-31 year olds. These players are the fastest of the college players, and also have more experience and better technique than the average college player.

And that doesn't even account for NFL linebackers being better much better in coverage than college linebackers.

This obviously would indicate that the coverage in the NFL is much tighter, and the "window" for a QB to fit a ball through is much smaller.


#2......

College defenses don't have complex blitz packages like those seen by good NFL defenses. Occasionally, some college teams do run a zone blitz, but they don't have the variety seen by NFL QBs. College defenses certainly aren't allowed to spend as much time on the field to install the types of schemes that the Steelers, Ravens, Patriots, Eagles, or Giants bring at QBs.

The fact that the spread offense makes it more difficult for college defenses to disguise their blitzing only makes it easier on the QB. These players may only have 1 read to make on a given play. It could be as simple as throw to "Z" if they show man coverage, or throw to "X" if they are in zone coverage. A good offensive coordinator will even use motion to tell the QB pre-snap what the coverage will be. Being able to recognize the blitz early makes it easier for the QB to hit the "hot" route.

The point here is that decision-making becomes much more difficult at the NFL level due to complexity of the defenses, as well as the increase in speed of the defensive players.

#3......

The spread offense also reduces the NEED to throw outside the numbers (like a 20 yard comeback route) for many "system" QBs in college.

The spread offense uses more underneath crossing routes, inside hook route by slot WRs, bubble screens, and other shorter routes..... that result in those video-game-like completion percentages that Colt Brennan, Colt McCoy, Chase Daniel, and Sam Bradford achieve.

Many of the "downfield" routes in a spread offense are seam routes or post-routes that are in the middle of the field, which keeps the actual distance the ball travels in the air to a minimum. The longer throws to the outside are often "corner routes" against single coverage, which allows the QB to loft the ball as a touch pass towards the WR. Since the offense has spread the defense so much horizontally, these QBs often face only a single deep safety, and that makes arm strength much less important.

You mentioned that the offense doesn't change the player's arm strength, but the spread offense does hide the fact that Brennan, Bradford, McCoy, and Daniel do not have as strong of an arm as they might appear. They simply aren't asked to make the tough throws that separate the Tom Brady type of QB from a Jeff Garcia. Stafford is receiving more attention because he does have a big-time NFL arm.

While a big-time arm is not always necessary to be a quality NFL QB, the advantage of stretching the field vertically AND from sideline-to-sideline with a strong arm forces the defense to cover more field. When a defense has to be concerned with covering the ENTIRE field, there are more holes in the coverage, and more room to run the ball.



THE BOTTOM LINE:

The fear of "system" QBs is not complete B.S. The majority of QBs who have put up huge stats in college in these favorable systems do not make good transitions to the NFL. It isn't because NFL teams are unwilling to "give them a chance".......otherwise players like Jake Delhomme and Kurt Warner surely wouldn't have been given a chance either.

Most of the "system" QBs simply don't end up having enough arm strength to make it in the NFL (see Detmer, Wuerffel). Others don't seem to be able to read the coverages well in the NFL (see Ware and Klingler).

Like I mentioned, there are NUMEROUS reasons why a high percentage of these players have failed in the NFL, and that is why the NFL scouts are always uneasy with "system" QBs.


Jim McMahon and Steve Young played in the exact same Norm Chow offense that Ty Detmer did at BYU. The same offense that Phillip Rivers,Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart later came from with varying results. It depends on scouting the individual quarterback and their skills. Matt Stafford routinely uses his arm to force the football into tough spots which, I would think, an inability to read defenses. Instead of taking whats given to him on the field. I mean, why would Sam Bradford not get the ball to his playmakers where the play is there? Hes thrown perfect downfield passes when necesary. Sam Bradford has every attribute you would want in a quarterback. I am very much reminded of Joe Montana watching him. Criticizing QBs for playing in spread offenses is getting more and more outdated by the year as more teams in the NFL use the very same offense. Whats the difference between the offense Brees played at Purdue and todays Saints offense? You can say the spread is a pro style offense.


December 25th, 2008, 8:39 pm
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Has anybody figured out what position our #1 from Dallas will be?

With my limited knowledge of these things, I figure #18 at the very least.


December 29th, 2008, 7:17 am
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If the Chargers make the Super Bowl, we can get as low as 18. I'm pretty sure that's the way it stands as of now.


December 29th, 2008, 7:24 am
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jomo269 wrote:
Has anybody figured out what position our #1 from Dallas will be?

With my limited knowledge of these things, I figure #18 at the very least.


When i went to NFL.com this morning it appeared that the pick would be #20. But there might tie breakers involved that could impact this.


December 29th, 2008, 1:24 pm
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