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Millen Draft Pick - Epic Bust

Joined: December 27th, 2006, 4:53 pm
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jrd66 wrote:
The Lionbacker scouts who now say Stafford is not a franchise QB were saying last year that Mayo would be a reach at pick 15 and the Lions could trade down to 23 and get him at his proper value.

http://onlineathens.com/stories/121408/ ... 2650.shtml


I wanted the Lions to get Aquib Talib and thought he was a top 5 draft talent. My point is that people should watch and study players independently. Take out the combine what you want to take out the combine. Pre draft hype is agent driven BS. Secondly, needs trump all else draft day. Patriots had an aging LB corps and felt a guy at their biggest need position could fill the hole and took him.


January 16th, 2009, 11:50 pm
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Quote:
Your QB sits behind Culpepper for a season and by the time he starts playing next season you could have drafted another guard or center. You have it all.


I have read this kind of stuff way, way, way too much and I just completely cannot fathom it. Daunte Culpepper was without debate the worst quarterback that the Lions played in 2008. That means worse than Kitna, worse than Orlovsky, worse than Stanton in his minimal time, and worse than Henson. I include Henson because his contribution was nill and neutral, whereas Culpepper's was negative.

Both Kitna and Orlovsky rated an average over 70. Daunte was just over 50. He was the only one to throw more picks than TDs. His completion percentage is garbage and he stands to make 5 million dollars next year that he has not earned. He has been an INT machine for years. These are the facts.

I attended or watched all but one of his performances (that one wasn't any better statistically) and can find virtually nothing to praise except for his arm strength.

If Culpepper is even on the roster for '09, it will be a HUGE blunder of the new front office. He is the last QB (besides Henson) who deserves a shot.

How am I to take your opinion seriously, when it includes playing the worst quarterback on our roster?

Quote:
f the Lions think Stafford or Sanchez is the best QB who will be available the next two years they take him. If you like McCoy, Bradford, or some other QB better that is fine but realize that if you don't have the top pick again in 2010 you likely won't land him (and how many NFL teams have had back-to-back top overall picks)


This is a point that I've brought up as well and agree with. I've really yet to see it addressed. We have a chance at the best available QB this year and he would likely be the best or second best next year. I'd say it is likely that we win at least 3 games next year, despite our 0-16 record. With modest improvement we could win 5 or 6. We could end up with a top five, but we can't count on it. Even so, two QBs may be off the board by then, which could mean Bradford and (if he had stayed in school) Stafford. We'd be picking the third best QB of the bunch.

So consider that if Stafford had stayed in school there is a good chance that we couldn't even get him next year with our first pick. We aren't going to get a better QB by waiting, because the guy everyone is suggesting we pass on would likely be off the table by the time we pick next year. Passing on the best QB in this draft for a likely 3rd best in next year's QB happy class, will result in a lower rated QB because Stafford would have went higher. A franchise QB isn't just going to fall into our lap. We no draft- we no get.

I'm not really high on Stafford, I'm just not deluding myself that we will get a better QB with a lower pick next year. Odds are pesky little buggers, and they are not on our side.

-ILMP


January 17th, 2009, 1:46 am
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Millen Draft Pick - Epic Bust

Joined: December 27th, 2006, 4:53 pm
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InterimLionsMasterPimp wrote:
Quote:
Your QB sits behind Culpepper for a season and by the time he starts playing next season you could have drafted another guard or center. You have it all.


I have read this kind of stuff way, way, way too much and I just completely cannot fathom it. Daunte Culpepper was without debate the worst quarterback that the Lions played in 2008. That means worse than Kitna, worse than Orlovsky, worse than Stanton in his minimal time, and worse than Henson. I include Henson because his contribution was nill and neutral, whereas Culpepper's was negative.

Both Kitna and Orlovsky rated an average over 70. Daunte was just over 50. He was the only one to throw more picks than TDs. His completion percentage is garbage and he stands to make 5 million dollars next year that he has not earned. He has been an INT machine for years. These are the facts.

I attended or watched all but one of his performances (that one wasn't any better statistically) and can find virtually nothing to praise except for his arm strength.

If Culpepper is even on the roster for '09, it will be a HUGE blunder of the new front office. He is the last QB (besides Henson) who deserves a shot.

How am I to take your opinion seriously, when it includes playing the worst quarterback on our roster?

Quote:
f the Lions think Stafford or Sanchez is the best QB who will be available the next two years they take him. If you like McCoy, Bradford, or some other QB better that is fine but realize that if you don't have the top pick again in 2010 you likely won't land him (and how many NFL teams have had back-to-back top overall picks)


This is a point that I've brought up as well and agree with. I've really yet to see it addressed. We have a chance at the best available QB this year and he would likely be the best or second best next year. I'd say it is likely that we win at least 3 games next year, despite our 0-16 record. With modest improvement we could win 5 or 6. We could end up with a top five, but we can't count on it. Even so, two QBs may be off the board by then, which could mean Bradford and (if he had stayed in school) Stafford. We'd be picking the third best QB of the bunch.

So consider that if Stafford had stayed in school there is a good chance that we couldn't even get him next year with our first pick. We aren't going to get a better QB by waiting, because the guy everyone is suggesting we pass on would likely be off the table by the time we pick next year. Passing on the best QB in this draft for a likely 3rd best in next year's QB happy class, will result in a lower rated QB because Stafford would have went higher. A franchise QB isn't just going to fall into our lap. We no draft- we no get.

I'm not really high on Stafford, I'm just not deluding myself that we will get a better QB with a lower pick next year. Odds are pesky little buggers, and they are not on our side.

-ILMP


Whos to say the 3rd best QB next year wont be better than the best QB this year? As long as it is established that QBs are developed, what does it matter? It seems to me that if the Lions pass on Stafford this year, you would rather the Lions tank the season just so we can take a QB high next year. Which would be the worst idea. Jay Cutler,Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco all ended up on regular playoff teams having down seasons. Maybe next year, the top QBs will be one of the top overall prospects in the draft. Unlike this year.


January 17th, 2009, 2:02 am
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Just say no to a QB this year.

Orlovsky is good enough to get us back to mediocrity (ala Garcia, T. Jackson, B. Johnson, K. Orton, R. Grossman, K. Collins, etc). We do NOT need a #1 overall QB. Look at Palmer - what a stud he was before he got hurt this year, not. Eli Manning - mediocre. He's had one good year in 5.

Stafford is NOT Peyton Manning.

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January 17th, 2009, 10:53 am
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conversion02 wrote:
Just say no to a QB this year.

Orlovsky is good enough to get us back to mediocrity (ala Garcia, T. Jackson, B. Johnson, K. Orton, R. Grossman, K. Collins, etc). We do NOT need a #1 overall QB. Look at Palmer - what a stud he was before he got hurt this year, not. Eli Manning - mediocre. He's had one good year in 5.

Stafford is NOT Peyton Manning.


I should put that whole statement as my quote, because it definetly justifies the whole QB/draft situation and it is definetly correct. Well put.

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January 19th, 2009, 1:36 pm
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This is from Walter Football. It's the guys response to many people who've emailed him against the Lions taking a QB:

http://www.walterfootball.com/draftmail ... _lions.php

Quote:
First off, I'd like to say that all three of these e-mailers make great points, and I agree with their basic premise. The Lions desperately need help at the left tackle position before anything else. It's their greatest weakness, and all three e-mailers are right - if you don't have at least a solid left tackle, your offense is going to suck.

But here's the thing. The Lions have two first-round picks, so they can grab someone like Jason Smith, Eben Britton or Ciron Black with Dallas' selection. That's exactly what the Falcons did in April. They chose Matt Ryan No. 3 overall, and they snagged Sam Baker off the board in the middle of the first round. I think that strategy has worked out pretty well for them.

Currently, I have Matt Stafford as the only underclassman quarterback declaring. My predicted strategy for the Lions could change should more signal callers come out early.

Think about it this way. If Detroit goes with Andre Smith with the initial choice in the first round, the next quarterback it could go with, assuming the team doesn't address the need in free agency, is Graham Harrell, Rhett Bomar, Nathan Brown, John Parker Wilson or Hunter Cantwell. I don't know about you, but Stafford sounds pretty good right now.

To Stimpy and Lisa, who mentioned the monetary ramifications, I'll argue that owner William Darth Clay Sidious Ford cares about one thing - money. Not success. Not the fans. He just wants cash in his pocket. He's proven that time and again over the years.

What generates more revenue than a new, hot quarterback? Some fans may be discouraged by the Stafford selection on Draft Day, but by August, those same fans will be lining up to buy a new Stafford jersey. If the Lions don't draft a quarterback, no one is going to go to any games to see a 5-11 squad led by Dan Orlovsky, Daunte Culpepper or Drew Stanton. Not in today's economy. Going with a quarterback No. 1 overall just makes too much sense from a business perspective.

Also to Lisa, about Stafford and Bradford not being "great," there's no way of knowing that. Matt Ryan wasn't known as the next "great" quarterback coming out of school. In fact, almost every Boston College alumnus/fan I talked to didn't like Ryan's pro prospects. There's no way of knowing if a quarterback is going to be "great" at the next level. Also, taking an offensive tackle high is no lock either; just ask the Bills (Mike Williams) and Raiders (Robert Gallery). Even Joe Thomas regressed this year. Every position in the draft is a crap-shoot.

To Fred, trading up for Terrence Cody sounds lucrative, but I think you would agree that the Lions have way too many needs to be giving up draft picks. If anything, they should try and trade down to fill more of the holes on their roster.


January 19th, 2009, 4:45 pm
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Millen Draft Pick - Epic Bust

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Walter football guy showed how little he knows about Detroit and its fans. Drafting Matt Stafford will not bring the fans back to Ford Field. Especially when he will sit the bench. The fans will only return when the team is winning on the field.


January 19th, 2009, 5:25 pm
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Who says Stafford is worth a #1?!? At ESPN's scouts inc., niether Sanchez and Stafford are currently in the top ten grade wise.

Football Outsider's projects QB's based on a system of experience (how many games started in college) and accurracy. They contend that game experience is invaluable to a QB and that a knowledgeable QB will excel in decision making passes, i.e. accurate passes. If a QB not only has to learn their position, but then learn how the NFL is different and what changes they need to make on top of the first process, the learning curve got that much longer. If they are not making (or can not make) good decisions in college, than how will this get better in the pros when the decisions need to be faster.

Here are QBs eleigible for this draft:
PLAYER Games TD/INT
Graham Harrel, Texas Tech 40 Starts 69.8% 134 - 34
Brian Johnson, Utah 38 66.1% 57 - 27
Joe Ganz, Nebraska 20 65.1 44 - 18
Chase Holbrook, New Mexico State 36 69.4 85 - 41
Chase Clement, Rice 34 60.0% 99 - 34
Mark Sanchez, USC 17 64.3% 41 - 16
Pat White, West Virginia 40 64.5% 56 - 23
David Johnson, Tulsa 15 64.5% 48 - 19
Matt Stafford, Georgia 36 57.1% 51 -33


January 19th, 2009, 6:26 pm
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columbuscrowd wrote:
Who says Stafford is worth a #1?!? At ESPN's scouts inc., niether Sanchez and Stafford are currently in the top ten grade wise.

Football Outsider's projects QB's based on a system of experience (how many games started in college) and accurracy. They contend that game experience is invaluable to a QB and that a knowledgeable QB will excel in decision making passes, i.e. accurate passes. If a QB not only has to learn their position, but then learn how the NFL is different and what changes they need to make on top of the first process, the learning curve got that much longer. If they are not making (or can not make) good decisions in college, than how will this get better in the pros when the decisions need to be faster.

Here are QBs eleigible for this draft:
PLAYER Games TD/INT
Graham Harrel, Texas Tech 40 Starts 69.8% 134 - 34
Brian Johnson, Utah 38 66.1% 57 - 27
Joe Ganz, Nebraska 20 65.1 44 - 18
Chase Holbrook, New Mexico State 36 69.4 85 - 41
Chase Clement, Rice 34 60.0% 99 - 34
Mark Sanchez, USC 17 64.3% 41 - 16
Pat White, West Virginia 40 64.5% 56 - 23
David Johnson, Tulsa 15 64.5% 48 - 19
Matt Stafford, Georgia 36 57.1% 51 -33


look up Drew Stanton's numbers from college and put him in that list. I think thta article also said something about progression in the last year as well. Stafford was pretty high in completion % in 2008. Not so much in 2006 when he was a freeshman.

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January 19th, 2009, 6:45 pm
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Not sure what you are getting at with this, but here are the Stanton stats:


PLAYER Games TD/INT
Graham Harrel, Texas Tech 40 Starts 69.8% 134 - 34
Brian Johnson, Utah 38 66.1% 57 - 27
Joe Ganz, Nebraska 20 65.1 44 - 18
Chase Holbrook, New Mexico State 36 69.4 85 - 41
Chase Clement, Rice 34 60.0% 99 - 34
Mark Sanchez, USC 17 64.3% 41 - 16
Pat White, West Virginia 40 64.5% 56 - 23
David Johnson, Tulsa 15 64.5% 48 - 19
Matt Stafford, Georgia 36 57.1% 51 -33
Drew Stanton, MSU 27 64% 43 - 28



He is mid-pack for games started. His completion percentage is mid/high pack and his TD/INT ratio is toward the bottom. In 2003 he played behind Jeff Smoker, who was a pretty successful MSU quarterback himself.

-ILMP


January 19th, 2009, 9:55 pm
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Stats are not an absolute true indicator of the pro potential of the QB. That study was interesting, and part of the reason I really wanted to see Stanton play some to see what he had. I guess in a way I'm saying that if that's what you want, and that's what you think indicates a top QB, he's on the team now. College teams run gimmick offenses that inflate the completion % through schemes that allow recievers to run free and catch short passes without close coverage. That doesn't happen in the NFL. I'd be willing to bet that Chase Daniel has a better completion % than Stafford (I don't know, really) but I'd also hazard to bet that NFL scouts might think Stafford is more accurate based on where he throws the ball in close coverage situations.

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January 19th, 2009, 10:49 pm
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http://www.freep.com/article/20090120/C ... eft+tackle

This is an article from the Freep that dives into this same discussion. I thought there were some interesting statistics about the average draft position of starting LT's and QB's. Here's a few of the main stats.

"Of the 32 starting quarterbacks on NFL depth charts, only 18 are with their original team. The average draft position for a starting quarterback was 99 -- early in the fourth round."

"But of the 32 starting left tackles, 28 are with their original team. That means teams must find their left tackles on their own, through the draft -- the elite ones rarely leave via free agency."

"Thankfully, elite left tackles are relatively easy to find. The average draft position for a starting left tackle was 50 -- somewhere in the middle of the second round. Most of the best tackles in the league (Walter Jones, Joe Thomas, Chris Samuels) were top-10 picks.

Left tackles are blue-chip stocks: you buy one, keep it for several years and enjoy its steady returns. (EDITOR'S NOTE: You used to be able to do this with stocks.)"

So, do we think we have the next Peyton Manning or are we taking our blue-chip LT? Let the discussion continue, gentlemen.


January 20th, 2009, 8:42 am
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Touchdown Jesus wrote:
According to Walterfootball.com, here's the stats for sacks up until the last week of the season:

1. Ryan Clady, Denver, 0.5 sack
2. Michael Roos, Tennessee, 1 sack PRO BOWLER
3-T. Tony Ugoh, Indianapolis, 2 sacks* (Started 11)
3-T. Tra Thomas, Philadelphia, 2 sacks
3-T. Jared Gaither, Baltimore, 2 sacks* (He missed first quarter of Philadelphia game because of a shoulder injury)
7. Jake Long, Miami, 2.5 sacks
8-T. Marcus McNeill, San Diego, 3 sacks* (13 games)
8-T. Chris Samuels, Washington, 3 sacks* (Only appeared in 12 games)
8-T. Jordan Gross, Carolina, 3 sacks* (Missed 1 game) PRO BOWLER
8-T. Jammal Brown, New Orleans, 3 sacks* (Missed 1 game)
8-T. Todd Weiner, Atlanta, 3 sacks* (Started 10 games and appeared in 15)
13-T. Joe Thomas, Cleveland, 3.5 sacks PRO BOWLER
13-T. Walter Jones, Seattle, 3.5 sacks* (12 games) PRO BOWLER
15-T. D'Brickashaw Ferguson, NY Jets, 4 sacks
15-T. Bryant McKinnie, Minnesota, 4 sacks* (11 games)
15-T. Max Starks, Pittsburgh, 4 sacks* (10 starts)
18. Brandon Albert, Kansas City, 4.5 sacks* (Missed 1 game)
19. Levi Jones, Cincinnati, 5.5 sacks* (10 games)
20. Mike Gandy, Arizona, 6.25 sacks
21-T. Chad Clifton, Green Bay, 6.5 sacks* (missed 1 game)
21-T. David Diehl, NY Giants, 6.5 sacks
23. Flozell Adams, Dallas, 7.25 PRO BOWLER
24-T. Khalif Barnes, Jacksonville, 7.5 sacks
24-T. Matt Light, New England, 7.5 sacks
24-T. Kwame Harris, 7.5 sacks* (Started 11, appeared in 13)
27. Donald Penn, Tampa Bay, 8 sacks
28. Joe Staley, San Francisco, 8.5 sacks
29. Jeff Backus, Detroit, 9.25 sacks
30. John St. Clair, Chicago, 9.75 sacks
T-31. Duane Brown, Houston, 11.5 sacks
T-31. Jason Peters, Buffalo, 11.5 sacks* PRO BOWLER (13 games)

So, Backus is 3rd worst in the league. What a stud indeed :roll:



This is a GREAT post!!!

And.....I'll also ask this question.

Of all of those OLTs on that list.....how many of them would you rather have line up in a Lions uniform next year instead of Jeff Backus???


January 20th, 2009, 4:33 pm
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all of them


January 20th, 2009, 5:39 pm
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Here is something else to chew on. I have noted the experience level of all first, second, and third year players. That is 10 of 32. And almost half of the players listed have less than 4 years experience:

Quote:
According to Walterfootball.com, here's the stats for sacks up until the last week of the season:

1. Ryan Clady, Denver, 0.5 sack ROOKIE
2. Michael Roos, Tennessee, 1 sack PRO BOWLER
3-T. Tony Ugoh, Indianapolis, 2 sacks* (Started 11) 2nd Year
3-T. Tra Thomas, Philadelphia, 2 sacks
3-T. Jared Gaither, Baltimore, 2 sacks* (He missed first quarter of Philadelphia game because of a shoulder injury) 2nd Year
7. Jake Long, Miami, 2.5 sacks ROOKIE
8-T. Marcus McNeill, San Diego, 3 sacks* (13 games) 3rd year
8-T. Chris Samuels, Washington, 3 sacks* (Only appeared in 12 games)
8-T. Jordan Gross, Carolina, 3 sacks* (Missed 1 game) PRO BOWLER
8-T. Jammal Brown, New Orleans, 3 sacks* (Missed 1 game)
8-T. Todd Weiner, Atlanta, 3 sacks* (Started 10 games and appeared in 15)
13-T. Joe Thomas, Cleveland, 3.5 sacks PRO BOWLER 2nd Year
13-T. Walter Jones, Seattle, 3.5 sacks* (12 games) PRO BOWLER
15-T. D'Brickashaw Ferguson, NY Jets, 4 sacks 3rd Year
15-T. Bryant McKinnie, Minnesota, 4 sacks* (11 games)
15-T. Max Starks, Pittsburgh, 4 sacks* (10 starts)
18. Brandon Albert, Kansas City, 4.5 sacks* (Missed 1 game) Rookie
19. Levi Jones, Cincinnati, 5.5 sacks* (10 games)
20. Mike Gandy, Arizona, 6.25 sacks
21-T. Chad Clifton, Green Bay, 6.5 sacks* (missed 1 game)
21-T. David Diehl, NY Giants, 6.5 sacks
23. Flozell Adams, Dallas, 7.25 PRO BOWLER
24-T. Khalif Barnes, Jacksonville, 7.5 sacks
24-T. Matt Light, New England, 7.5 sacks
24-T. Kwame Harris, 7.5 sacks* (Started 11, appeared in 13)
27. Donald Penn, Tampa Bay, 8 sacks 3rd Year
28. Joe Staley, San Francisco, 8.5 sacks 2nd Year
29. Jeff Backus, Detroit, 9.25 sacks
30. John St. Clair, Chicago, 9.75 sacks
T-31. Duane Brown, Houston, 11.5 sacks Rookie
T-31. Jason Peters, Buffalo, 11.5 sacks* PRO BOWLER (13 games)


January 20th, 2009, 6:47 pm
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