View unanswered posts | View active topics It is currently April 19th, 2014, 8:54 pm



Reply to topic  [ 58 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4  Next
 Reason to trade down 
Author Message
Pop Warner Allstar

Joined: April 28th, 2006, 7:18 am
Posts: 146
Post Reason to trade down
One, it's going to be the first major influx of talent for the new regime (and it still will be a new regime even if Mayhew gets the job). Two, the Lions likely will have the top pick in the draft and a total of four choices in the top 65. Third, this is expected to be one of the deepest and most talent-laden drafts, possibly ever.

The reason for the high volume of talent is because of the NFL's labor situation. Agents and representatives are getting the word out to underclassmen that they'd better declare for the draft now because if there's a new collective bargaining agreement in 2010, there is likely to be a severe rookie cap.

It's also possible that free agency, whether there's a new agreement or not, will be extended beyond the current four years. The sooner a player comes out, the quicker he'll reach unrestricted free agency and have a better opportunity to cash in.

So this could basically be a double-draft class at all positions while the 2010 draft could be extremely thin -- another reason why the Lions must strike it rich now.

The Lions already have eight picks this year and they're hoping to get another one: a possible mid-round compensatory pick for losing free agents, most notably tackle Damien Woody to the New York Jets.

One of Detroit's picks is a third-rounder they got from the Dallas Cowboys for receiver Roy Williams. If the Cowboys fail to make the playoffs, the Lions will have five picks in the top 85.

By making the right moves in the draft, the Lions could get well in a hurry just like the Atlanta Falcons did this season.

http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/20 ... n_lio.html


This year above all others we need to gather as many picks as we can. We also need to be open to less then stellar trade value. This draft is going to see so many underclassmen that we need to scout potential UDFA now and later round picks. What should be 1st round picks are going to be had in the second and third round this year.

This is the year to clean house on our roster and get young and talented. Purge the deadweight and go through the growing pains with talanted rookies learing the ropes next year.

TRADE DOWN TRADE DOWN


December 3rd, 2008, 9:50 am
Profile
RIP Killer
User avatar

Joined: August 6th, 2004, 9:21 am
Posts: 9252
Location: Dallas
Post Re: Reason to trade down
Bclion wrote:
By making the right moves in the draft, the Lions could get well in a hurry just like the Atlanta Falcons did this season.


Atlanta also went our and drafted a franchise QB early in the draft, something difficult to do if you trade down and something most members here are too afraid to pull the trigger on.

_________________
Image
LB Tweet


December 3rd, 2008, 11:52 am
Profile WWW
Post Re: Reason to trade down
Pablo wrote:
Bclion wrote:
By making the right moves in the draft, the Lions could get well in a hurry just like the Atlanta Falcons did this season.


Atlanta also went our and drafted a franchise QB early in the draft, something difficult to do if you trade down and something most members here are too afraid to pull the trigger on.


They also signed a FA back that is carrying their team. I don't think Matt Ryan is doing all that much for them...


December 3rd, 2008, 12:01 pm
RIP Killer
User avatar

Joined: August 6th, 2004, 9:21 am
Posts: 9252
Location: Dallas
Post 
Oh I don't know, he has played very well at home with a 107 QB rating (5 TDs to just 1 INT) completing 66.7% of his passes. I'd take that in a heartbeat. He also only has one bad game, in Indy, where he threw no TD and 2 picks. Not bad for a rookie QB if you ask me.

_________________
Image
LB Tweet


December 3rd, 2008, 12:15 pm
Profile WWW
Hall of Fame Player
User avatar

Joined: April 5th, 2005, 7:03 am
Posts: 7411
Location: Ford Field - 35 yard line / Row 32
Post 
Pablo wrote:
Oh I don't know, he has played very well at home with a 107 QB rating (5 TDs to just 1 INT) completing 66.7% of his passes. I'd take that in a heartbeat. He also only has one bad game, in Indy, where he threw no TD and 2 picks. Not bad for a rookie QB if you ask me.


Agreed!! He's far superior to any 1st rd QB we've taken in the modern era.


As for trading down - I'm all for it. At the rate we're going we'll have 3 picks in the first 33. (5 in the first 85). A good GM should be able to leverage that into 4 picks between 6 & 45ish for the same price as the 3! (Plus possibly 6 in the first 90).

That would be an exciting days worth of work!



BTW, We should have a LionBacker Draft Party. We'll need it!

_________________
Image


Last edited by LionFan57 on December 3rd, 2008, 12:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.



December 3rd, 2008, 12:34 pm
Profile WWW
Team MVP
User avatar

Joined: February 20th, 2007, 10:51 pm
Posts: 3257
Location: Saginaw, MI
Post 
Im still not buying it. For one big reason, you cant get Oher or Andre Smith by trading down. I too believe that the bigger reason for Atlanta's success is because of Michael Turner. If he didnt run the way he did Matt Ryan wouldnt have half the numbers he does.

Just curious though, how far would you want to trade down and who would you want to pick with our #1?

_________________
April 22nd, 2010 @ 7:44p.m. "The Detroit Lions select...Ndamukong Suh". Those are some beautiful words.


Lionbacker2 Fantasy Champion 2011


December 3rd, 2008, 12:35 pm
Profile
Fired Head Coach (0-16 record)
User avatar

Joined: October 30th, 2004, 12:30 pm
Posts: 2205
Location: Austin, TX
Post 
Well, I believe we got our back in Kevin Smith, now if we can make the O-line better by drafting Oher or Smith (Me personally, I am for Oher) then all of a sudden we can run the ball and take some pressure off the passing game and wa-la we turned it around like Atlanta did. We have QBs on this roster that can manage a game(ie: DanO) if we help give him what Matt Ryan has in Atlanta.. a strong O-line and a solid RB.

_________________
Image

NEVER GIVE UP!


December 3rd, 2008, 12:55 pm
Profile
Pop Warner Allstar

Joined: April 28th, 2006, 7:18 am
Posts: 146
Post 
kdsberman wrote:
Im still not buying it. For one big reason, you cant get Oher or Andre Smith by trading down. I too believe that the bigger reason for Atlanta's success is because of Michael Turner. If he didnt run the way he did Matt Ryan wouldnt have half the numbers he does.

Just curious though, how far would you want to trade down and who would you want to pick with our #1?


I think its way to early to be deciding who to draft. I want to see who declares and combine etc...

But I am not opposed to drafting anything at this point with our number 1. We have so many holes to fix and the draft should be so deep Im all about garnering as many picks as we can. There should be at least 5 qb's around the same talent level that will be there throughout the second round and same for just about any other position this year.

The kids know the money train ends this year. They will all come out and get paid while they can.

I also think it will be difficult finding a partner to trade with and thats why I say take less value. offer the number 2 pick a chance to move up for a fourth etc etc...


December 3rd, 2008, 4:39 pm
Profile
Pro Bowl Player

Joined: September 13th, 2007, 12:43 pm
Posts: 2564
Post 
First: Matt Ryan is doing great this year. There has even been talk of him being the LEAGUE MVP.

Second: Trade down at all costs.

Think of it this way: Any given prospect, no matter how great you think they're going to be, has a bust chance of say 20-50% (or more).

Whatever player is drafted first overall, is going to command a huge contract. The contract could be worthy of their talent, or they could prove to be a bust.

The Lions simply cannot afford another high level bust. Let's say Stafford declares, and another GM falls in love with him. The Lions get offered a pick in the 10-15 range, and two additional second rounders.

Now the Lions can take a QB of the Bradford/McCoy level, the third LT of the draft, and they'd have 5 2nd and 3rd round picks to spend on DTs, CBs, LBs, etc. to shore up that horrible defense. I would love that scenario.


December 3rd, 2008, 5:44 pm
Profile
Team MVP
User avatar

Joined: February 20th, 2007, 10:51 pm
Posts: 3257
Location: Saginaw, MI
Post 
But how low can we go and still find a left tackle thats a serious upgrade over Backus? Id like for the Lions to get a stud left tackle, not just a minor upgrade.

I guess I wouldnt mind if we traded down and got a James Laurinauitis type player...that guys awesome. Whatever we do, as long as Jeff Backus is replaced by a MUCH better tackle, thats all im asking.

_________________
April 22nd, 2010 @ 7:44p.m. "The Detroit Lions select...Ndamukong Suh". Those are some beautiful words.


Lionbacker2 Fantasy Champion 2011


December 3rd, 2008, 6:00 pm
Profile
Pro Bowl Player

Joined: September 13th, 2007, 12:43 pm
Posts: 2564
Post 
Quote:
But how low can we go and still find a left tackle thats a serious upgrade over Backus? Id like for the Lions to get a stud left tackle, not just a minor upgrade.


Let's say you turn down my theoretical trade of a first and two seconds and decide to take Oher #1 and give him a huge contract.

Then you find out that Oher just can't cut it at the NFL level. Flat out bust. Now you've lost out on those two second round players that could've helped your roster immensely. To top it off, Oher's gigantic wasteful contract puts a strain on your salary cap for years.

Take a look at the 2004 NFL draft. Oakland took Robert Gallery at the #2 position. Philly took Shawn Andrews at #16. Gallery turned out to be a bust. Andrews is a pro bowler.


December 3rd, 2008, 6:17 pm
Profile
Post 
Pablo wrote:
Oh I don't know, he has played very well at home with a 107 QB rating (5 TDs to just 1 INT) completing 66.7% of his passes. I'd take that in a heartbeat. He also only has one bad game, in Indy, where he threw no TD and 2 picks. Not bad for a rookie QB if you ask me.



What has allowed him to play like that? Their OL and running game. When their running game isn't working their whole team falls apart. If you put Matt Ryan on the Detroit Lions you get Dan Orlovsky.


Matt Ryan had ONE good game when their running game didn't gain near 100 yards, and that was the Chicago game.


December 3rd, 2008, 6:27 pm
Millen Draft Pick - Epic Bust

Joined: December 27th, 2006, 4:53 pm
Posts: 693
Post 
Blueskies wrote:
First: Matt Ryan is doing great this year. There has even been talk of him being the LEAGUE MVP.

Second: Trade down at all costs.

Think of it this way: Any given prospect, no matter how great you think they're going to be, has a bust chance of say 20-50% (or more).

Whatever player is drafted first overall, is going to command a huge contract. The contract could be worthy of their talent, or they could prove to be a bust.

The Lions simply cannot afford another high level bust. Let's say Stafford declares, and another GM falls in love with him. The Lions get offered a pick in the 10-15 range, and two additional second rounders.

Now the Lions can take a QB of the Bradford/McCoy level, the third LT of the draft, and they'd have 5 2nd and 3rd round picks to spend on DTs, CBs, LBs, etc. to shore up that horrible defense. I would love that scenario.


The Lions cant afford a high level bust, yet you are for taking a quarterback? My head is spinning.You have the 15th draft pick, you dont know who will be there for you to pick. You may end up in a position,like the Lions last year, where you are assed out and have to take a player who was 3rd or below on your draft board pre draft. It is a large expenditure at the top of the draft, but if your scouting methods arent up to par, the money will be wasted in the 5 wasted 2nd round picks that you are suggesting. Millen had three 2nd rounders in 07 and blew every pick. Top level football players are needed to fix this team. Just take your chances with the #1 pick. Unless a worthwhile trade offer comes. The teams with multiple second rounders in this draft are the Patriots,Giants Dolphins and likely Jets. Dont think they would trade up for Stafford. Maybe you think so. Only other team with multiple first rounders are the Eagles. Dont think they'd trade up for Stafford. So basically we would be picking lower in the draft for a 3rd round pick and cap space. I didnt know Joe Dumars is the Lions new GM.


December 3rd, 2008, 6:32 pm
Profile
QB Coach

Joined: January 13th, 2006, 4:18 am
Posts: 3123
Location: Maryland
Post 
Who's to say those extra picks are going to pan out either? I know it won't cost as much if they don't but it will still create problems.

If the scouts feel that there is not much difference between the top 3 LTs, and they think with a trade down one of them could still be had then go for it. However, I think Oher is going to be an Orlando Pace type of player and I don't know if Smith and Monroe can be like Walter Jones and Tarik Glenn (the other top tackles in the 97 draft picked #6 and #19 respectively)


December 3rd, 2008, 6:36 pm
Profile
Pro Bowl Player

Joined: September 13th, 2007, 12:43 pm
Posts: 2564
Post 
Quote:
The Lions cant afford a high level bust, yet you are for taking a quarterback?


Contrary to popular belief, QBs aren't anymore likely to bust than any other posistion. For every Joey Harrington you have a Robert Gallery (LT) or a Cedric Benson (RB) or a Pacman Jones (CB) or a...(etc.)

Quote:
Just take your chances with the #1 pick.

Quote:
Who's to say those extra picks are going to pan out either? I know it won't cost as much if they don't but it will still create problems.


Let's say every player has a 50% chance to bust. If you draft one player, you have a 50% chance of landing yourself a bust.

But if you draft three players in place of that one, you have

(1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2)*100 = 12.5% of all them being busts.

So, statistically speaking, you're better off taking your chances on more players than you are a few. Plus, if the player you take at 15 is a bust, his cap hit is much smaller than the player taken at 1.

If the Lions draft a single guy, they have a 1 in 2 chance of landing nothing, but if they draft 3 guys, two of them will probably be good football players.

Also, stop referencing Matt Millen's past mistakes. They're irrelevant. He's gone. We're assuming that all future Lions drafts will be better. (If not, why be a Lion's fan?)

Quote:
Unless a worthwhile trade offer comes. The teams with multiple second rounders in this draft are the Patriots,Giants Dolphins and likely Jets. Dont think they would trade up for Stafford. Maybe you think so. Only other team with multiple first rounders are the Eagles. Dont think they'd trade up for Stafford.


Let's say the 49ers want Stafford. They trade Vernon Davis to a team for a third rounder. Then they package their third rounder with the one they acquired in the trade and trade those two third rounders for a second rounder. Then they offer the Lions the two second rounders and their first.

They are innumerable ways that GMs can wheel and deal to make trades work.


December 3rd, 2008, 6:46 pm
Profile
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic   [ 58 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4  Next

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group.
Designed by STSoftware.