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 Reason to trade down 
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Millen Draft Pick - Epic Bust

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Blueskies wrote:
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The Lions cant afford a high level bust, yet you are for taking a quarterback?


Contrary to popular belief, QBs aren't anymore likely to bust than any other posistion. For every Joey Harrington you have a Robert Gallery (LT) or a Cedric Benson (RB) or a Pacman Jones (CB) or a...(etc.)

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Just take your chances with the #1 pick.

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Who's to say those extra picks are going to pan out either? I know it won't cost as much if they don't but it will still create problems.


Let's say every player has a 50% chance to bust. If you draft one player, you have a 50% chance of landing yourself a bust.

But if you draft three players in place of that one, you have

(1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2)*100 = 12.5% of all them being busts.

So, statistically speaking, you're better off taking your chances on more players than you are a few. Plus, if the player you take at 15 is a bust, his cap hit is much smaller than the player taken at 1.

If the Lions draft a single guy, they have a 1 in 2 chance of landing nothing, but if they draft 3 guys, two of them will probably be good football players.

Also, stop referencing Matt Millen's past mistakes. They're irrelevant. He's gone. We're assuming that all future Lions drafts will be better. (If not, why be a Lion's fan?)

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Unless a worthwhile trade offer comes. The teams with multiple second rounders in this draft are the Patriots,Giants Dolphins and likely Jets. Dont think they would trade up for Stafford. Maybe you think so. Only other team with multiple first rounders are the Eagles. Dont think they'd trade up for Stafford.


Let's say the 49ers want Stafford. They trade Vernon Davis to a team for a third rounder. Then they package their third rounder with the one they acquired in the trade and trade those two third rounders for a second rounder. Then they offer the Lions the two second rounders and their first.

They are innumerable ways that GMs can wheel and deal to make trades work.


Robert Gallery,Cedric Benson and Pacman Jones all are NFL starters- this season. Joey Harrington has been cut twice as the 3rd QB with the Saints. Over 80% of first round tackles this decade currently start in the NFL. Sure Gallery is a disappointment just like Joey, but can you come up with more tackles to match with David Carr,Patrick Ramsey,Alex Smith,JP Losman,Rex Grossman,Kyle Boller? Hell no. QBs have the highest bust rate of any position.


December 3rd, 2008, 7:32 pm
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Post Re: Reason to trade down
wjb21ndtown wrote:
Pablo wrote:
wjb21ndtown wrote:
Pablo wrote:
Bclion wrote:
By making the right moves in the draft, the Lions could get well in a hurry just like the Atlanta Falcons did this season.


Atlanta also went our and drafted a franchise QB early in the draft, something difficult to do if you trade down and something most members here are too afraid to pull the trigger on.


They also signed a FA back that is carrying their team. I don't think Matt Ryan is doing all that much for them...


Oh I don't know, he has played very well at home with a 107 QB rating (5 TDs to just 1 INT) completing 66.7% of his passes. I'd take that in a heartbeat. He also only has one bad game, in Indy, where he threw no TD and 2 picks. Not bad for a rookie QB if you ask me.


What has allowed him to play like that? Their OL and running game. When their running game isn't working their whole team falls apart. If you put Matt Ryan on the Detroit Lions you get Dan Orlovsky.

Matt Ryan had ONE good game when their running game didn't gain near 100 yards, and that was the Chicago game.


wjb, You could say that about half the QB's in the NFL. Of course the O-line & running game support the QB. But it works the other way around too.

I'd say Atlanta has done an exceptional job bouncing back from their QB chaos. They got the runner they wanted and got what looks to be the best QB in the draft. The net effect is they are 8-4 and looking good with a bright future in the QB.

Do you think Harrington would have looked as good with that team?

Do you really think Dan Orlovsky could have gone to Atlanta and ended up with a 107 QB rating so far this year?

Puh-leaze!

If Atlanta thought so they would have never cut Joey or they would have traded us to get Orlovsky and used the Ryan pick on something else.

I don't think you're giving Ryan near the credit he deserves. I certainly would have rather drafted Ryan than Cherilus (or have Cullpeper or Orlovsky) at this point.

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December 3rd, 2008, 10:01 pm
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How do you know Orlovsky cant go and have a 107 rating? We dont know. Why? Because our offensive line is hiding whatever potential this offense has. How good is Kevin Smith really? What about Orlovsky or even Kitna?

So we draft a QB and he plays behind this horrible O-line. Now THIS quarterback's potential is cut short because of our o-line.

As you can see, it does not matter until we have a good o-line.

So YES, it is very possible that drafting a QB would result in a bust. If we trade down, I wont be happy. If we trade down and somehow get a quarterback, Ill be puking. If we stay and take Oher (as of now) or trade down and get a good LT and somehow manage to get a good linebacker or something, that might be alright.

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December 4th, 2008, 12:07 am
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Millen Draft Pick - Epic Bust

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Marc Bulger went from entering the league as a pro bowl level QB to 6 years later being the worst starter in the league along with Anderson this year. They went from being tops in the league in offense to the bottom of the league with the same QB. Did Marc Bulger mysteriously lose his talent during that time period? Ryan and Flacco are on the 2nd and 3rd best rushing teams in the NFL. Having a great rushing team automatically means you have a good offensive line. That means teams cant stack the box on the rookie QB. Having reliable recievers also further helps the rookie QB. Roethlisberger had even more success as a rookie in 04 going 15-1 as starter in the same situation.


December 4th, 2008, 12:50 am
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dh86 wrote:
Marc Bulger went from entering the league as a pro bowl level QB to 6 years later being the worst starter in the league along with Anderson this year. They went from being tops in the league in offense to the bottom of the league with the same QB. Did Marc Bulger mysteriously lose his talent during that time period? Ryan and Flacco are on the 2nd and 3rd best rushing teams in the NFL. Having a great rushing team automatically means you have a good offensive line. That means teams cant stack the box on the rookie QB. Having reliable recievers also further helps the rookie QB. Roethlisberger had even more success as a rookie in 04 going 15-1 as starter in the same situation.



Yup.

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December 4th, 2008, 12:59 am
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OK we strayed off track a little bit but...

kdsberman wrote:
How do you know Orlovsky cant go and have a 107 rating? We dont know. Why? Because our offensive line is hiding whatever potential this offense has. How good is Kevin Smith really? What about Orlovsky or even Kitna?


Because right now Orlovsky's rating is 76.7 and I'm not convinced an O-line and running game are the only things holding him back from having a 107 rating given that he's a 5th round pick. I could be wrong but I suspect there's more.

Furthermore, I'm not alone. I guess I missed the masses of other NFL teams (such as Atlanta) that thought Orlovsky was a hidden gem and offered us 2nd, 3rd or 4th round picks so they could invest their 1st round picks in players other than Ryan and Flacco.

kdsberman wrote:
So we draft a QB and he plays behind this horrible O-line. Now THIS quarterback's potential is cut short because of our o-line.

As you can see, it does not matter until we have a good o-line.


I do agree our O-line is the worst in the NFL and have stated it in countless posts. I further agree that you can't really judge a QB nor develop one effectively until he has some protection and I've stated that many times too. So I'm an advocate of building the O-line as the Lions first and foremost offensive priority.

kdsberman wrote:
So YES, it is very possible that drafting a QB would result in a bust. If we trade down, I wont be happy. If we trade down and somehow get a quarterback, Ill be puking. If we stay and take Oher (as of now) or trade down and get a good LT and somehow manage to get a good linebacker or something, that might be alright.


So yes I agree QB's can be a bust and no one has proven that better than the Lions. I'm fine going into next season with the QB's that we have because A) we just invested a 2nd rd pick in a QB and still don't know what he can do, and, B) I'd rather shore up the O-line before we bail on Stanton and destroy some new unsuspecting poor guys career.

As for the draft I never get to concerned about who we pick until after we see what happens in free agency. However, I'm an advocate of a trading down strategy this year.


My earlier comments were directed at the assertion that Ryan "hasn't done much for [Atlanta]" and that, (paraphrasing) 'Ryan is just Orlovsky with a better O-line & and running game'.

Forget the O-line and running game for a moment... Am I the only person who would rather have Ryan or Flacco over any QB on our roster?

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December 4th, 2008, 5:55 am
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LionFan57 wrote:
OK we strayed off track a little bit but...

kdsberman wrote:
How do you know Orlovsky cant go and have a 107 rating? We dont know. Why? Because our offensive line is hiding whatever potential this offense has. How good is Kevin Smith really? What about Orlovsky or even Kitna?


Because right now Orlovsky's rating is 76.7 and I'm not convinced an O-line and running game are the only things holding him back from having a 107 rating given that he's a 5th round pick. I could be wrong but I suspect there's more.

Furthermore, I'm not alone. I guess I missed the masses of other NFL teams (such as Atlanta) that thought Orlovsky was a hidden gem and offered us 2nd, 3rd or 4th round picks so they could invest their 1st round picks in players other than Ryan and Flacco.

kdsberman wrote:
So we draft a QB and he plays behind this horrible O-line. Now THIS quarterback's potential is cut short because of our o-line.

As you can see, it does not matter until we have a good o-line.


I do agree our O-line is the worst in the NFL and have stated it in countless posts. I further agree that you can't really judge a QB nor develop one effectively until he has some protection and I've stated that many times too. So I'm an advocate of building the O-line as the Lions first and foremost offensive priority.

kdsberman wrote:
So YES, it is very possible that drafting a QB would result in a bust. If we trade down, I wont be happy. If we trade down and somehow get a quarterback, Ill be puking. If we stay and take Oher (as of now) or trade down and get a good LT and somehow manage to get a good linebacker or something, that might be alright.


So yes I agree QB's can be a bust and no one has proven that better than the Lions. I'm fine going into next season with the QB's that we have because A) we just invested a 2nd rd pick in a QB and still don't know what he can do, and, B) I'd rather shore up the O-line before we bail on Stanton and destroy some new unsuspecting poor guys career.

As for the draft I never get to concerned about who we pick until after we see what happens in free agency. However, I'm an advocate of a trading down strategy this year.


My earlier comments were directed at the assertion that Ryan "hasn't done much for [Atlanta]" and that, (paraphrasing) 'Ryan is just Orlovsky with a better O-line & and running game'.

Forget the O-line and running game for a moment... Am I the only person who would rather have Ryan or Flacco over any QB on our roster?


Say we drafted Flacco instead of Cherilus this year. Are we really any better this season?


December 4th, 2008, 12:02 pm
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LionFan57 wrote:
Forget the O-line and running game for a moment... Am I the only person who would rather have Ryan or Flacco over any QB on our roster?


Id rather have one of them over our guys any day. Im one who likes Kitna though, but other than that I definetly would.

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December 4th, 2008, 1:20 pm
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Quote:
can you come up with more tackles to match with David Carr,Patrick Ramsey,Alex Smith,JP Losman,Rex Grossman,Kyle Boller? Hell no. QBs have the highest bust rate of any position.


QB examples you gave:

Carr - 1rst overall, now backup
Ramsey - Last pick of the first round, now backup
Smith - 1rst overall, now backup
Losman - 22nd overall, now backup
Grossman -22nd overall, now backup
Boller - 19th overall, now backup

Tackle Examples:

Alex Barron - 19th overall
Vernon Carrey -19th overall
George Foster - 20th overall
Kwame Harris - 26th overall
Mike Williams -4th overall
Kenyatta Walker - 14th overall
Jeff Backus -18th overall


December 4th, 2008, 2:50 pm
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No matter what guys, we need EVERY position we've mentioned.

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April 22nd, 2010 @ 7:44p.m. "The Detroit Lions select...Ndamukong Suh". Those are some beautiful words.


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December 4th, 2008, 2:54 pm
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dh86 wrote:
Say we drafted Flacco instead of Cherilus this year. Are we really any better this season?


No but we are better next season and the nine seasons after that and that is the point. We would also have something to build around, can you imagine building a team around Cherilus?

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December 4th, 2008, 3:30 pm
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Pablo wrote:
dh86 wrote:
Say we drafted Flacco instead of Cherilus this year. Are we really any better this season?


No but we are better next season and the nine seasons after that and that is the point. We would also have something to build around, can you imagine building a team around Cherilus?


Really, IMO Flacco isn't all that great of a Qb.

IMO Flacco is a lot like J.P. Losman... How much better are the Bills for burning a pick on him???


December 4th, 2008, 5:06 pm
Millen Draft Pick - Epic Bust

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Blueskies wrote:
Quote:
can you come up with more tackles to match with David Carr,Patrick Ramsey,Alex Smith,JP Losman,Rex Grossman,Kyle Boller? Hell no. QBs have the highest bust rate of any position.


QB examples you gave:

Carr - 1rst overall, now backup
Ramsey - Last pick of the first round, now backup
Smith - 1rst overall, now backup
Losman - 22nd overall, now backup
Grossman -22nd overall, now backup
Boller - 19th overall, now backup

Tackle Examples:

Alex Barron - 19th overall
Vernon Carrey -19th overall
George Foster - 20th overall
Kwame Harris - 26th overall
Mike Williams -4th overall
Kenyatta Walker - 14th overall
Jeff Backus -18th overall


Barron,Carey,Harris and Backus are all starters in the NFL today. The guys you named at QB will never be regular starters again. There are so called "franchise QBs" at the top of every draft, every year. Build the team conducive for a young QB to come in and have instant success first. Then get the young QB. Exactly the way Baltimore did it. In the 2009 draft, I want the Lions to draft for the 2009 season.


December 4th, 2008, 6:11 pm
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Quote:
Barron,Carey,Harris and Backus are all starters in the NFL today.


Still busts. Boller started several games last season. He's still a bust.

My point is simply that every position has roughly an equal amount of busts. However, people mistakenly believe that QBs tend to bust more often. Why? It's a QB driven league. Ask your average NFL fan to name as many starting offensive tackles they can. How many do you think they can name? 2 maybe 3? The same fan could probably name more than half of the current starting QBs. When QBs bust you just hear more about it, but its not more likely to happen.

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Build the team conducive for a young QB to come in and have instant success first. Then get the young QB. Exactly the way Baltimore did it. In the 2009 draft, I want the Lions to draft for the 2009 season.


Why draft for the short term? The Lions--any way you cut it--will take at least 2 drafts/FA to be competitive and 3 or 4 good/great drafts to become a playoff caliber team.

And yes, there are many great QBs who were drafted with competent teams already around them. However, there are just as many QBs who were drafted into bad situations.

The whole "get the Oline or get the QB first?" debate is pointless. For every Big Ben theres a Troy Aikman. For every Peyton Manning there's a Dan Marino.

Football is such a team game. You CANT have a great QB without a great offensive line. And you can't have a great offensive line without a great QB. If you put a bad QB behind a great offensive line, people will underrate the offensive line. (For an example of this, look at Dallas with and without Tony Romo)

The Lions need many great players to turn this thing around. Taking a QB before a LT or the other way around won't really matter as long as both the QB and the LT turn out to be great.


December 4th, 2008, 7:14 pm
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dh86 wrote:
I want the Lions to draft for the 2009 season.
The lions don't have the talent to turn thing around in 2009. The GM needs a 3 year plan and follow it. Drafting for the 2009 is a Millen move.

Quote:
Barron,Carey,Harris and Backus are all starters in the NFL today

Travis Fisher has started for us this year so that makes him good?

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December 4th, 2008, 7:24 pm
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