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Millen Draft Pick - Epic Bust

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im praying you all are watching the raiders-chargers game


December 4th, 2008, 10:32 pm
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Quote:
im praying you all are watching the raiders-chargers game


What's your point? You didn't really elaborate, but, based on your previous points in this topic, I'm guessing its something along the lines of:

"Look, Oakland took a QB #1 overall and now he, and the team, are doing terribly."

However, you neglected to look at it from the Charger's perspective.

In 2004 the chargers had the #1 overall pick--in 2003 they were the worst team in the league. What did they do? Did they draft a player? Nope. They traded the pick away.

What they'd get in return? Rivers, Kaeding, and Merriman--all pro bowlers.

What else can we learn from tonight's game? Oh yeah, the fact that Rivers was drafted on a team and sat for years while they built up the team for him.

And what about the team who traded up to get the Chargers pick? They traded up from the fourth spot, so you know they weren't in a very good position at the time. Didn't they just win the SB with that QB? Wasn't he the super bowl MVP? Or perhaps I'm mistaken...

Let's go back to Oakland.

C--early in the second round
LG--taken 2nd overall
RT--taken 26th overall
RG--4th round pick
RT--undrafted

And compare that with the Chargers:

LT-2nd round pick
LG-undrafted
C-3rd round pick
RG-3rd round pick
RT-6th round pick

So, as you can see, the raiders have higher picks invested in their offensive line compared to the Chargers. But the chargers line is significantly better.

I don't know what else I can say. It's not when you draft a player or their position; it's who you draft.


December 5th, 2008, 2:04 am
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Millen Draft Pick - Epic Bust

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Blueskies wrote:
Quote:
im praying you all are watching the raiders-chargers game


What's your point? You didn't really elaborate, but, based on your previous points in this topic, I'm guessing its something along the lines of:

"Look, Oakland took a QB #1 overall and now he, and the team, are doing terribly."

However, you neglected to look at it from the Charger's perspective.

In 2004 the chargers had the #1 overall pick--in 2003 they were the worst team in the league. What did they do? Did they draft a player? Nope. They traded the pick away.

What they'd get in return? Rivers, Kaeding, and Merriman--all pro bowlers.

What else can we learn from tonight's game? Oh yeah, the fact that Rivers was drafted on a team and sat for years while they built up the team for him.

And what about the team who traded up to get the Chargers pick? They traded up from the fourth spot, so you know they weren't in a very good position at the time. Didn't they just win the SB with that QB? Wasn't he the super bowl MVP? Or perhaps I'm mistaken...

Let's go back to Oakland.

C--early in the second round
LG--taken 2nd overall
RT--taken 26th overall
RG--4th round pick
RT--undrafted

And compare that with the Chargers:

LT-2nd round pick
LG-undrafted
C-3rd round pick
RG-3rd round pick
RT-6th round pick

So, as you can see, the raiders have higher picks invested in their offensive line compared to the Chargers. But the chargers line is significantly better.

I don't know what else I can say. It's not when you draft a player or their position; it's who you draft.


If the Chiefs offer the 4th pick, a 3rd, a 5th and their 1st next year for the #1 pick, i would definitely listen. Thats the deal SD got for Eli. My point wasnt "Look at Jamarcus, watch him flop", it was look what happens to a young QB that is set up for failure. He has no support system. If Joe Flacco played on this year's Lions, hed look terribly just as much. The Lions are about to go 0-16. It would be the peak of idiocy to take someone in the first round to sit the bench next season. NFL is a year to year proposition. We have to win games in 2009. In an any given sunday game where players are in and out like a turnstile and any play can literally be your last, what the hell is a 5 year plan? You plan for the next two seasons at the most in this league. Comparing what the Lions are about to do with what the Chargers did with Rivers makes no sense as well. The Chargers at least had a superstar RB and a middle of the road offensive line. The Chargers had the best offensive line in the league by the time Rivers took his first snaps. The Giants and Steelers obviously had multiple pro bowlers already on the roster and a strong support system when they took their QBs in 2004.The Lions are practically an expansion team at this point. We are in the exact situation we were in when we took Joey. Too many starters wore down and ready to retire, bad offensive line, impossible situation.


December 5th, 2008, 2:33 am
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Millen Draft Pick - Epic Bust

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Blueskies wrote:
Quote:
Barron,Carey,Harris and Backus are all starters in the NFL today.


Still busts. Boller started several games last season. He's still a bust.

My point is simply that every position has roughly an equal amount of busts. However, people mistakenly believe that QBs tend to bust more often. Why? It's a QB driven league. Ask your average NFL fan to name as many starting offensive tackles they can. How many do you think they can name? 2 maybe 3? The same fan could probably name more than half of the current starting QBs. When QBs bust you just hear more about it, but its not more likely to happen.

Quote:
Build the team conducive for a young QB to come in and have instant success first. Then get the young QB. Exactly the way Baltimore did it. In the 2009 draft, I want the Lions to draft for the 2009 season.


Why draft for the short term? The Lions--any way you cut it--will take at least 2 drafts/FA to be competitive and 3 or 4 good/great drafts to become a playoff caliber team.

And yes, there are many great QBs who were drafted with competent teams already around them. However, there are just as many QBs who were drafted into bad situations.

The whole "get the Oline or get the QB first?" debate is pointless. For every Big Ben theres a Troy Aikman. For every Peyton Manning there's a Dan Marino.

Football is such a team game. You CANT have a great QB without a great offensive line. And you can't have a great offensive line without a great QB. If you put a bad QB behind a great offensive line, people will underrate the offensive line. (For an example of this, look at Dallas with and without Tony Romo)

The Lions need many great players to turn this thing around. Taking a QB before a LT or the other way around won't really matter as long as both the QB and the LT turn out to be great.


http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/st ... ortCat=nfl

Interesting ESPN 2007 article summing up drafts from 1989-2003

First Round Picks, By the Numbers:

Players Picked in First Round
OL -- 70
DE - 55
CB - 52
WR -- 51
LB -- 48
DT - 42
RB -- 41
QB -- 30
S -- 19

Reactions: This makes sense, since there are two tackles, two guards, and a center on the offensive line. It's also clear that LT and DE are the new glamour positions. What's surprising is safeties, the safest, most-productive position in the study, came off the board a study-low 19 times.

First-Round Bust Percentages
QB -- 53 percent
RB -- 49 percent
WR -- 45 percent
DT -- 33 percent
OL -- 31 percent
DE -- 31 percent
CB -- 29 percent
LB -- 16 percent
S -- 11 percent

Reactions: Akili Smith. Cade McNown. Tim Couch. All three were quarterbacks drafted in the first round in 1999, all three are long gone. The other two QBs picked that year -- Daunte Culpepper and Donovan McNabb -- have been Pro Bowlers. History says that either Brady Quinn or JaMarcus Russell will fall flat on his face in the NFL. I came into the study feeling wide receiver, with its legion of head cases, would be the riskiest position, and I was wrong.


December 5th, 2008, 2:41 am
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Quote:
it was look what happens to a young QB that is set up for failure. He has no support system.


I agree. But I'm saying it'd be easier to set-up a support system by trading down. You trade down, you get more picks, you acquire more pieces for the support system. The Lions are, as you said, an expansion team. They don't have that support system in place at all. The best way to get it is through acquiring as many picks as possible.

Quote:
The Lions are about to go 0-16. It would be the peak of idiocy to take someone in the first round to sit the bench next season. NFL is a year to year proposition. We have to win games in 2009. In an any given sunday game where players are in and out like a turnstile and any play can literally be your last, what the hell is a 5 year plan?


I'm not advocating taking Stafford number 1 and sitting him. I'm advocating trading down and acquiring more pieces to build the team with. If one of those pieces is a QB who rides the pine for a while, so be it, as long as we got a few other players to go with him.

And no matter who the Lions draft, they will not win more than 4 games next season. This team is completely talent depleted like none other in the modern era. Most GMs think about three years into the future. That is why the third year is so important for a coach. But these Lions? Exception. The goal is playoffs in three years for most rebuilding teams, but I would pleased with .500. Practically every player on the team needs to be replaced.

As for that study...its biased.

Using "80 games played or one pro bowl appearance" is not an equal playing field across all positions.

I'll give you an example.

QB is drafted middle of the first round. Halfway through his first season he gets the start. He plays poorly that year. Gets the start next year, plays at a mediocre level. Starts his third year, plays mediocre, but the team does poorly. Since the fans always blame the QB first--even if it isn't his fault--the coach is forced to bench him. The situation doesn't improve and the season ends poorly. The head coach gets canned. New coach comes in. Since this is such a QB driven league, the new coach wants to bring in his QB as a way to put his stamp on the team. Our theoretical QB is cut. Gets picked up by another team and serves as a backup. Plays only a handful of games the rest of his career.

Bust? Yes.

But look at from a CB perspective...

CB gets drafted middle of the first round. Halfway through his first year he gets to start at the #2 position. While expected to eventually become the team's #1 corner, he never reaches that level. He plays well enough to keep his job, but never takes the number 1 spot. At the end of his rookie deal, he gets resigned for a modest contract, and plays the rest of his days for that team, or he gets resigned by another team and starts for them at the #2 position. Never gets a pro bowl, but has a long career.

Bust? By the 80 game standard, no. Many other players from OT to S to LB could fit the same mold. Even though their talent is equal to the QB in the example, they aren't considered busts because they are given more of a chance.

When you play QB, you have a microscope shoved up your rectum. If you don't play stellar, you're benched in favor of the next guy. If you're an offensive tackle and you can't cut it, you can be shifted to a different position. If you're drafted to be a #1 WR and instead can only amount to slot receiver--that's fine. QBs don't have that luxury.

The only truly fair way to measure QB busts vs. other positions would be to look at pro bowl selections, or to evaluate strictly on a case-by-case basis with a general history of the player's expectations and career. 80 games played is not fair.


December 5th, 2008, 5:21 am
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Blueskies wrote:
Quote:
im praying you all are watching the raiders-chargers game


What's your point? You didn't really elaborate, but, based on your previous points in this topic, I'm guessing its something along the lines of:

"Look, Oakland took a QB #1 overall and now he, and the team, are doing terribly."

However, you neglected to look at it from the Charger's perspective.

In 2004 the chargers had the #1 overall pick--in 2003 they were the worst team in the league. What did they do? Did they draft a player? Nope. [b]They traded the pick away. [/b]

What they'd get in return? Rivers, Kaeding, and Merriman--all pro bowlers.

What else can we learn from tonight's game? Oh yeah, the fact that Rivers was drafted on a team and sat for years while they built up the team for him.

And what about the team who traded up to get the Chargers pick? They traded up from the fourth spot, so you know they weren't in a very good position at the time. Didn't they just win the SB with that QB? Wasn't he the super bowl MVP? Or perhaps I'm mistaken...

Let's go back to Oakland.

C--early in the second round
LG--taken 2nd overall
RT--taken 26th overall
RG--4th round pick
RT--undrafted

And compare that with the Chargers:

LT-2nd round pick
LG-undrafted
C-3rd round pick
RG-3rd round pick
RT-6th round pick

So, as you can see, the raiders have higher picks invested in their offensive line compared to the Chargers. But the chargers line is significantly better.

I don't know what else I can say. It's not when you draft a player or their position; it's who you draft.


Actually the Chargers DID draft a player named Eli Manning. And the Giants selected Phillip Rivers. Then made the trade for the rights to the players in addition to the extra draft picks.The Giants wanted Eli Manning that's why a trade worked out. If a similar situation presents itself where a team WANTS to move up and the Lions will still be getting a player they want then go for it. The more picks the better. At the top of this draft the talent lies in the LT position. An area of need for the Lions. So if you can work a trade move down a few spots and still get a quality player that you WANTED then go for it. If not stay put and pick the best player in the draft which is looking more and more to be a LT.


December 5th, 2008, 3:52 pm
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Id like to stay and get the top LT and then somehow with our #1(2) pick get James Laurinauitis, if we have to move up or whatever. Other than that, as long as we dont pick a quarterback, I wouldnt mind moving down if we could get a stuf MLB like JL.

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December 5th, 2008, 5:11 pm
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I think it really depends on who comes out and if the Lions can trade down. If Stafford and Bradford come out chances arent that great the Lions can deal. If only Stafford comes out then the Chiefs, 49ers, Rams, all may look to move up.


December 8th, 2008, 1:03 am
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dh86 wrote:
Blueskies wrote:
Quote:
The Lions cant afford a high level bust, yet you are for taking a quarterback?


Contrary to popular belief, QBs aren't anymore likely to bust than any other posistion. For every Joey Harrington you have a Robert Gallery (LT) or a Cedric Benson (RB) or a Pacman Jones (CB) or a...(etc.)

Quote:
Just take your chances with the #1 pick.

Quote:
Who's to say those extra picks are going to pan out either? I know it won't cost as much if they don't but it will still create problems.


Let's say every player has a 50% chance to bust. If you draft one player, you have a 50% chance of landing yourself a bust.

But if you draft three players in place of that one, you have

(1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2)*100 = 12.5% of all them being busts.

So, statistically speaking, you're better off taking your chances on more players than you are a few. Plus, if the player you take at 15 is a bust, his cap hit is much smaller than the player taken at 1.

If the Lions draft a single guy, they have a 1 in 2 chance of landing nothing, but if they draft 3 guys, two of them will probably be good football players.

Also, stop referencing Matt Millen's past mistakes. They're irrelevant. He's gone. We're assuming that all future Lions drafts will be better. (If not, why be a Lion's fan?)

Quote:
Unless a worthwhile trade offer comes. The teams with multiple second rounders in this draft are the Patriots,Giants Dolphins and likely Jets. Dont think they would trade up for Stafford. Maybe you think so. Only other team with multiple first rounders are the Eagles. Dont think they'd trade up for Stafford.


Let's say the 49ers want Stafford. They trade Vernon Davis to a team for a third rounder. Then they package their third rounder with the one they acquired in the trade and trade those two third rounders for a second rounder. Then they offer the Lions the two second rounders and their first.

They are innumerable ways that GMs can wheel and deal to make trades work.


Robert Gallery,Cedric Benson and Pacman Jones all are NFL starters- this season. Joey Harrington has been cut twice as the 3rd QB with the Saints. Over 80% of first round tackles this decade currently start in the NFL. Sure Gallery is a disappointment just like Joey, but can you come up with more tackles to match with David Carr,Patrick Ramsey,Alex Smith,JP Losman,Rex Grossman,Kyle Boller? Hell no. QBs have the highest bust rate of any position.

The only reason Robert Gallery is still in the NFL, let alone being a starter, is because he was switched to Guard. If he wouldn't have switched, the Raiders were going to cut him.


December 8th, 2008, 10:32 am
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Pablo wrote:
dh86 wrote:
Say we drafted Flacco instead of Cherilus this year. Are we really any better this season?


No but we are better next season and the nine seasons after that and that is the point. We would also have something to build around, can you imagine building a team around Cherilus?


Pablo,
You were all over Jamarcus Russell's jock when he was drafted. According to the commentators on Sirius NFL radio, he is basically Ryan Leaf now. Going through the motions and collecting a massive paycheck for as long as he can until the Raiders finally cut him. Heck, you even almost convinced me that the Lions should have traded up for him. At this point, I'm glad we didn't.


December 8th, 2008, 10:42 am
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BillySims wrote:
Pablo wrote:
dh86 wrote:
Say we drafted Flacco instead of Cherilus this year. Are we really any better this season?


No but we are better next season and the nine seasons after that and that is the point. We would also have something to build around, can you imagine building a team around Cherilus?


Pablo,
You were all over Jamarcus Russell's jock when he was drafted. According to the commentators on Sirius NFL radio, he is basically Ryan Leaf now. Going through the motions and collecting a massive paycheck for as long as he can until the Raiders finally cut him. Heck, you even almost convinced me that the Lions should have traded up for him. At this point, I'm glad we didn't.


You are correct, I've been wrong about a # of QB's - and some other positions as well. That said, I'd still rather take a 50/50 shot at a franchise QB than a guy like Cherilus who in the long run won't make much difference.

I just got an email from a buddy in Atlanta this morning, he said he is happy for me that the Lions should about lock in the #1 pick and we can finally get a franchise QB - talking about how great Ryan has been for them and how bright the future is. EVERYONE outside of Detroit understands this team needs a QB.

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December 8th, 2008, 11:05 am
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I am outside of Detroit and still think our O-line needs to get better before getting a QB. ONLY way you draft a QB this year is if the guy is sure fire can't miss type prospect and untill I see stuff from the combine that could change my mind.. I am still with fixing the O-line 1st.

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December 8th, 2008, 12:43 pm
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Pablo, I think everyone here understands we need a QB but tell me which one in the upcoming draft is going to be the Matt Ryan? It's not worth it to just pick a QB because we need one unless he is actually going to be something. We picked Joey Harrington because we NEEDED a QB and look where that got us. I'm all for getting a franchise QB. However, I don't think that franchise guy in the draft. Stafford looks mediocre at best to me. Bradford I think could have "it" but I believe he would benefit from more time in school. I posted in another thread if he comes out this year I wouldn't hate taking him #1 and a LT with our second first round pick, similar to what Atlanta did this year. However, we will need a good coaching staff to get him ready for the NFL.

I think position versatility plays a roll as well. If you bust on a QB then that's it. But if you take a LT and he can't handle the LT position you can at least switch him to guard or RT. Sure Oakland didn't get what they thought they were getting in Gallery, but at least he is contributing in some way to the team.

My thoughts are, would you rather draft who you think is an Orlando Pace and get a guard or take who you hope is a Peyton Manning but is really a Ryan Leaf?

I am not opposed to taking a QB but aside from MAYBE Bradford, I don't think the guys in the upcoming draft are worth it.


December 8th, 2008, 12:43 pm
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Pablo wrote:
BillySims wrote:
Pablo wrote:
dh86 wrote:
Say we drafted Flacco instead of Cherilus this year. Are we really any better this season?


No but we are better next season and the nine seasons after that and that is the point. We would also have something to build around, can you imagine building a team around Cherilus?


Pablo,
You were all over Jamarcus Russell's jock when he was drafted. According to the commentators on Sirius NFL radio, he is basically Ryan Leaf now. Going through the motions and collecting a massive paycheck for as long as he can until the Raiders finally cut him. Heck, you even almost convinced me that the Lions should have traded up for him. At this point, I'm glad we didn't.


You are correct, I've been wrong about a # of QB's - and some other positions as well. That said, I'd still rather take a 50/50 shot at a franchise QB than a guy like Cherilus who in the long run won't make much difference.

I just got an email from a buddy in Atlanta this morning, he said he is happy for me that the Lions should about lock in the #1 pick and we can finally get a franchise QB - talking about how great Ryan has been for them and how bright the future is. EVERYONE outside of Detroit understands this team needs a QB.



Then apparently everyone outside Detroit doesnt have common sense when it comes to football. Your quarterback will NOT succeed without a good O-line!!! Either will your running backs! Get it through your heads. Yes, we need a quarterback, but first things first, improve the O-line! Wow.

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December 8th, 2008, 12:55 pm
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kdsberman wrote:
Pablo wrote:
BillySims wrote:
Pablo wrote:
dh86 wrote:
Say we drafted Flacco instead of Cherilus this year. Are we really any better this season?


No but we are better next season and the nine seasons after that and that is the point. We would also have something to build around, can you imagine building a team around Cherilus?


Pablo,
You were all over Jamarcus Russell's jock when he was drafted. According to the commentators on Sirius NFL radio, he is basically Ryan Leaf now. Going through the motions and collecting a massive paycheck for as long as he can until the Raiders finally cut him. Heck, you even almost convinced me that the Lions should have traded up for him. At this point, I'm glad we didn't.


You are correct, I've been wrong about a # of QB's - and some other positions as well. That said, I'd still rather take a 50/50 shot at a franchise QB than a guy like Cherilus who in the long run won't make much difference.

I just got an email from a buddy in Atlanta this morning, he said he is happy for me that the Lions should about lock in the #1 pick and we can finally get a franchise QB - talking about how great Ryan has been for them and how bright the future is. EVERYONE outside of Detroit understands this team needs a QB.



Then apparently everyone outside Detroit doesnt have common sense when it comes to football. Your quarterback will NOT succeed without a good O-line!!! Either will your running backs! Get it through your heads. Yes, we need a quarterback, but first things first, improve the O-line! Wow.


But what they know is that many times the QB sits the first year. Meaning, we improve the OL both this year and next before he is thrown in there.

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December 8th, 2008, 1:03 pm
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