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Right, but couldn't we get an average quarterback in free agency or in the second round? Carson Palmer is mediocre, or he'd carry the Bengals on his back.


January 12th, 2009, 10:21 pm
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faulkn22 wrote:
Right, but couldn't we get an average quarterback in free agency or in the second round? Carson Palmer is mediocre, or he'd carry the Bengals on his back.


Nme me a Qb who has carried a BAd team on his back.

Not a Hall of Fame QB with an average team.

A Good QB who carried a team as bad as the bengals.

The closest season they got , Carson was dominating, until the steelers injured him in the playoffs and the bengals were listless without him.

If you think we can Draft an Allstar QB.. and he can Carry our team on his back , its time to put down the pipe.

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January 12th, 2009, 10:38 pm
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Id take a future 2 time Probowl QB (MVP of the Probowl one year) anytime. They had their worst year in the time he has been there this year while he was out with injury. When he plays they have a winning record, when he doesn't they have a losing record. That is good enough for me to determine whether he makes a team better.

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January 12th, 2009, 10:42 pm
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http://www.helium.com/items/347137-how- ... irst-round

Read this and tell me how many first round quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl since 1982. I'll give you a hint... You can almost count them on one hand.


January 12th, 2009, 10:49 pm
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faulkn22 wrote:
http://www.helium.com/items/347137-how-critical-is-selecting-the-right-quarterback-in-the-first-round

Read this and tell me how many first round quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl since 1982. I'll give you a hint... You can almost count them on one hand.


To quote that article,


Since 1982 there have been 54 quarterbacks selected in the first round. Some names you remember while others were forgotten a long time ago. Busts are a common phrase when some of the names are mentioned and for good reason. Of the 54 quarterbacks selected in the first round, only 14 ever made it to the Super Bowl. Of the 14 which made it, only six won the game.


So 14/54= ~26%. Just one in four.

Now, how many QBs have been drafted in rounds 2-7 since 1982? 10-15 a year roughly so about 340. How many of these guys have been in a super bowl? There have been 26 super bowls since, so 52 starting QBs. You eliminate the 14 first rounders. You have to eliminate QBs with multiple SB appearances like Tom Brady and Jim Kelly. Then you eliminate QBs that weren't drafted at all like Jake Delholme. So lets say roughly 23 QBs have been drafted in rounds 2-7 and started in a SB.

Thats 23/340= ~7%. Less than one in ten.

Still like that article?


January 13th, 2009, 1:34 pm
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Blueskies wrote:
faulkn22 wrote:
http://www.helium.com/items/347137-how-critical-is-selecting-the-right-quarterback-in-the-first-round

Read this and tell me how many first round quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl since 1982. I'll give you a hint... You can almost count them on one hand.


To quote that article,


Since 1982 there have been 54 quarterbacks selected in the first round. Some names you remember while others were forgotten a long time ago. Busts are a common phrase when some of the names are mentioned and for good reason. Of the 54 quarterbacks selected in the first round, only 14 ever made it to the Super Bowl. Of the 14 which made it, only six won the game.


So 14/54= ~26%. Just one in four.

Now, how many QBs have been drafted in rounds 2-7 since 1982? 10-15 a year roughly so about 340. How many of these guys have been in a super bowl? There have been 26 super bowls since, so 52 starting QBs. You eliminate the 14 first rounders. You have to eliminate QBs with multiple SB appearances like Tom Brady and Jim Kelly. Then you eliminate QBs that weren't drafted at all like Jake Delholme. So lets say roughly 23 QBs have been drafted in rounds 2-7 and started in a SB.

Thats 23/340= ~7%. Less than one in ten.

Still like that article?


I do, it signifies that the chances of actually finding a good QB by selecting isn't very good. You need to compare other positions to that number to get an idea of how the QB positions stacks up against other positions. This will give you an idea of what is the best chances to get a "stud" with our first rounds picks. QB doesn't stack up very well...

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January 13th, 2009, 3:30 pm
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This is a unique year for QB's.

It's vogue again to bring in franchise rookie QB's. Look at the success that Baltimore has had with Flacco and the falcons with Matt Ryan. Part of that is scouts and teams have a better idea of what translates to a more successful NFL QB.

Generally Accuracy is the greatest statistical indicator. Experience in a Pro Style offense helps. And continuity and reps is a big deal in how fast that turn around happens. One-hit-wonders never play well as rookies. Usually seniors who've started at least a couple of years and produced or shown steady progress, do better as first year QB's.

That said, there's no senior QB's worth taking in the first round. This is causing an unusual demand for underclassmen QB's. Their could be a serious over-rating of QB's. If the market recognizes that taking QB's early would be foolishness then we could have something like when Brady Quinn free fell to the latter half of the First round. If they do indeed over-rate them, we could have something like when SF drafted Alex Smith, or when a few years ago their was a fire sale of QB's in the second round.

If the Lions are smart they ought to pick them where they're worth. I advocate waiting to see if Stafford or Bradford fall to the 20th pick. If neither is available, I'd say screw drafting a franchise QB this year. If both are available, I'd wait to see if one fell to the us in the second round. If only one is available, I'd take him with the 20th pick.


January 13th, 2009, 4:01 pm
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Honolulu_Blue wrote:
This is a unique year for QB's.

It's vogue again to bring in franchise rookie QB's. Look at the success that Baltimore has had with Flacco and the falcons with Matt Ryan. Part of that is scouts and teams have a better idea of what translates to a more successful NFL QB.

Generally Accuracy is the greatest statistical indicator. Experience in a Pro Style offense helps. And continuity and reps is a big deal in how fast that turn around happens. One-hit-wonders never play well as rookies. Usually seniors who've started at least a couple of years and produced or shown steady progress, do better as first year QB's.

That said, there's no senior QB's worth taking in the first round. This is causing an unusual demand for underclassmen QB's. Their could be a serious over-rating of QB's. If the market recognizes that taking QB's early would be foolishness then we could have something like when Brady Quinn free fell to the latter half of the First round. If they do indeed over-rate them, we could have something like when SF drafted Alex Smith, or when a few years ago their was a fire sale of QB's in the second round.

If the Lions are smart they ought to pick them where they're worth. I advocate waiting to see if Stafford or Bradford fall to the 20th pick. If neither is available, I'd say screw drafting a franchise QB this year. If both are available, I'd wait to see if one fell to the us in the second round. If only one is available, I'd take him with the 20th pick.



While I agree Matt Ryan is the main reason the falcons turned things around. Joe Flacco has aurguably the 1st or 2nd best defense in the league. Not saying he's had nothing to do with the success.

Plus both the Falcons and Ravens have superior rushing teams to aleviate the pass rush. I really like Kevin Smith but who do we have that backs him up? Sure isnt a Jerius Norwood or Laroy McClain.

Anyway I really agree with blue in saying we should wait to see if one of the QB's fall to 20. It's happened before. The Sooner would look better in blue and silver than the Bulldog in my eyes. :wink:

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January 14th, 2009, 12:34 am
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I think, in fact I know that using Superbowls as a gauge for quarterback competency is a waste of time. Dan Marino was far better than half of the hacks who got a shot at the big game.

Superbowls are only indicators of team competence.

Show me Pro-Bowlers by draft position. That might have a little bit of relevance.

-ILMP


January 14th, 2009, 12:44 am
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you cant measure things like accuracy just by stats........Bradford has a higher completion percentage but he is playing in many spread formations and relying on timing his routes more than anything...Many many more short passes in OU offense then in Georgias(taking away the screen pass that georgia runs ALOT)

Now stafford might have a lower completion percentage than bradford but his accuracy is WAY BETTER than bradfords. especially on the deep routes. The ONLY and i mean ONLY thing Bradford has on Stafford is he dont throw as many interceptions......But he wont throw as many TDs and for the Yardage in the pros either



Bradford would be good in a west coast offense maybe.He isnt experienced in 3 5 and 7 step drops from under center and is not as athletic on the run as Stafford( Watch some of Staffords freshman year....Boy can he run)Stafford is ready to take the reigns of an NFL offense.

I could see an average year looking like this if they were in Lions Offense

Stafford 64% 4.400 yds 28 TD 16 INT

Bradford 66% 3,800 yds 22 TD 14 INT


January 14th, 2009, 2:07 am
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I love how blueskies spouts out some meaningless info... lol. How about taking winning super bowl qb's like I said originally. My text is right there if you would actually read it. How about not trying to twist facts to try and make a point that you clearly are losing with. The fact of the matter is you can get a franchise qb out of the top 5, GET OVER IT!!! My fact still stands, you should probably quit trying :p


January 14th, 2009, 7:35 am
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Quote:
I love how blueskies spouts out some meaningless info... lol.


I love how you attack my information in the "Lions season in review" topic as "wrong". Then when I ask you to prove me wrong, you ignore it and stop posting. LOL

Quote:
How about not trying to twist facts to try and make a point that you clearly are losing with.


Well thank you for telling me that I am "clearly losing". I wasn't aware.

Quote:
The fact of the matter is you can get a franchise qb out of the top 5, GET OVER IT!!!


Hey guess what? You can find a franchise RB out of the top five. You can find a franchise LT out of the top five. You can find a franchise WR out of the top five. A franchise DE, G, TE...

You get my point?

I'm not for taking a QB at #1 at all costs. I'm against people who want to follow stupid mantras like "LT at all costs". Or "a QB can't succeed until he gets a good offensive line so you shouldn't draft one until then..."

There are no hard and fast rules in the NFL draft. You have to go on a case by case basis, play with the hand your dealt and take all the other teams' moves into account.


January 14th, 2009, 3:33 pm
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faulkn22 wrote:
Right, but couldn't we get an average quarterback in free agency or in the second round? Carson Palmer is mediocre, or he'd carry the Bengals on his back.


Absolutely, positively a TERRIBLE statement. Peyton Manning didn't 'carry the Colts on his back' until he got talent around him. You think he'd be the same without Harrison, Clark, Wayne, Edge, Addai, etc.? You think he would have been that good? You're fooling yourself if you think otherwise. You think he'd be the same without Tony Dungy coaching up that defense?

Cinci has had some decent offensive players. Johnson is a good receiver, when he wants to be. TJ is as well. Their offensive line is decent. But like was said, the defense SUCKS. And THAT is the reason Cinci isn't succeeding. It has nothing to do with Carson Palmer.

I guess since Miami never won the SB, that Marino was a mediocre QB. Funny, didn't we have a QB here in Detroit that DID win a SB? What happened with him? I don't recall his ability to 'carry' us?

And in truth, I don't believe Eli Manning 'carried' the Giants to last years SB. He happened to have hit a hot streak, and got really lucky when Tyree made a remarkable catch. If that doesn't happen, Eli is an also ran.


January 14th, 2009, 4:39 pm
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Blueskies wrote:
Quote:
I love how blueskies spouts out some meaningless info... lol.


I love how you attack my information in the "Lions season in review" topic as "wrong". Then when I ask you to prove me wrong, you ignore it and stop posting. LOL

Quote:
How about not trying to twist facts to try and make a point that you clearly are losing with.


Well thank you for telling me that I am "clearly losing". I wasn't aware.

Quote:
The fact of the matter is you can get a franchise qb out of the top 5, GET OVER IT!!!


Hey guess what? You can find a franchise RB out of the top five. You can find a franchise LT out of the top five. You can find a franchise WR out of the top five. A franchise DE, G, TE...

You get my point?

I'm not for taking a QB at #1 at all costs. I'm against people who want to follow stupid mantras like "LT at all costs". Or "a QB can't succeed until he gets a good offensive line so you shouldn't draft one until then..."

There are no hard and fast rules in the NFL draft. You have to go on a case by case basis, play with the hand your dealt and take all the other teams' moves into account.


LT at all costs isnt a mantra. "Pound the Rock" is a mantra. LT at all costs is a fact based analysis of the Lions football team as currently built and the talent available in the 2009 NFL Draft. I dont post theory, I dont post hypotheticals. I post things that have actually happened. For instance, 2005. The 49ers had the #1 pick in the NFL draft. There were 2 QBs considered first round worthy in Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers. Neither were really considered top level prospects. The only thing really keeping them high on draft boards were the fact that they were Quarterbacks. San Francisco tried valiantly to trade down to take Alex at a more reasonable draft position. No one bit. The 49ers panicked and bought into the "franchise QB" bs and took Alex. 19 TDs and 31 ints later, hes hanging on by a thread in the NFL. I dont believe Matt Stafford is a top 20 draft prospect. My views on young QBs aside. Mark Sanchez is barely a top 10 prospect who needs another year of school badly as he has only been a starter 1 season. Taking a quarterback at #1 in this draft is not an option. Take a player at #1 with a chance to be tops at their position in the NFL.


January 14th, 2009, 4:45 pm
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m2karateman wrote:
faulkn22 wrote:
Right, but couldn't we get an average quarterback in free agency or in the second round? Carson Palmer is mediocre, or he'd carry the Bengals on his back.


Absolutely, positively a TERRIBLE statement. Peyton Manning didn't 'carry the Colts on his back' until he got talent around him. You think he'd be the same without Harrison, Clark, Wayne, Edge, Addai, etc.? You think he would have been that good? You're fooling yourself if you think otherwise. You think he'd be the same without Tony Dungy coaching up that defense?

Cinci has had some decent offensive players. Johnson is a good receiver, when he wants to be. TJ is as well. Their offensive line is decent. But like was said, the defense SUCKS. And THAT is the reason Cinci isn't succeeding. It has nothing to do with Carson Palmer.

I guess since Miami never won the SB, that Marino was a mediocre QB. Funny, didn't we have a QB here in Detroit that DID win a SB? What happened with him? I don't recall his ability to 'carry' us?

And in truth, I don't believe Eli Manning 'carried' the Giants to last years SB. He happened to have hit a hot streak, and got really lucky when Tyree made a remarkable catch. If that doesn't happen, Eli is an also ran.


Carson Palmer is in the same boat as Daunte Culpepper at this point. Shown tons of promise a few years ago, but regressed into a turnover prone gunslinger after the knee injuries.


January 14th, 2009, 4:49 pm
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