View unanswered posts | View active topics It is currently October 21st, 2014, 1:36 am



Reply to topic  [ 18 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next
 Realistic trade out of #1 
Author Message
Player of the Year - Defense

Joined: September 13th, 2007, 12:43 pm
Posts: 2692
Post Realistic trade out of #1
Philadelphia Eagles give:
Two first rounders (21rst + 28th overall pick)

Detroit Lions give:
First overall pick

Reasons why the Eagles would do this:

1. Following Jimmy Johnson's trade value chart, the Eagles are ripping the Lions off--big time.

2. The Eagles are at a bump in the road. They've done consistently well the last few years, but just can't get it done (win the SB). McNabb, Westbrook, Dawkins--all aging. They either need to get it done now, or give up and rebuild. McNabb was at his best when he had TO. Trading up to this spot would give him a new elite weapon in the form of Crabtree--who a lot of mock drafts now consider the greatest player in the draft. Pair Crabtree with Jackson and Westbrook, and now McNabb has a great slew of weapons with which to make one final run at the SB.

Reasons why the Lions would do this:

1. The Lions need players. Not one guy, many. This would give them another pick in the first round, and if you include #33 (which is practically a first rounder) they would have four first rounders.

2. Stafford is questionable at #1. Even mock drafters that project him at #1 acknowledge that.

3. Can't draft Crabtree. Can't do it.

4. To quote Walterfootball,

There is no consensus No. 1 tackle. A few months ago, Michael Oher was the guy. Questions arose about his consistency in pass blocking, and he fell off. Next, Andre Smith was the top tackle. When concerns about his weight and pass blocking came to light, his stock dropped as well. Now, despite not doing anything and sitting out the Senior Bowl, Monroe has somehow elevated up to No. 2 overall status? Sounds a bit fishy to me. For all we know, people might starting finding things wrong with him pretty soon. Jason Smith, Mike Mayock's top-rated tackle, could then move into this slot.

5. Can't give a linebacker or a CB top pick money. Could give it to a defensive tackle or end, but so far none has risen up to this spot in terms of projected greatness.

6. Even if you want a LT or a defensive player consider this:

With 20, 21, 28, and 33 the Lions can take:

Duke Robinson OG
Max Unger (Who can play G or C--Lions could start him at G and switch him to C when Raiola's contract expires)
Vontae Davis CB
Peria Jerry DT

Two new guards upgrades the offensive line much more than one new LT, while leaving two picks to acquire a talented CB and a DT or a LB.

Thoughts?


January 29th, 2009, 2:30 pm
Profile
Play by Play Announcer - Al Michaels

Joined: October 15th, 2005, 9:00 am
Posts: 1839
Location: Greensboro, NC
Post 
If the Eagles really want a WR, and I'm not sure they do, why pay #1 overall money to Crabtree when they could draft Jeremy Maclin OR Percy Harvin (or both) with the picks they already have?


January 29th, 2009, 4:50 pm
Profile
NFL Veteran
User avatar

Joined: September 15th, 2004, 6:02 am
Posts: 1355
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Post 
I've been thinking of trade down scenarios, and I can only think of a couple scenarios where any team would be crazy enough to ask for the first pick.

1) A team needs the Franchise QB and Stafford is the guy. We can make this happen, if the Lions show heavy interest in him.

2) One player away strategy. We seem to be able to have the good fortune of a perfect storm here. The league is a copycat league and they will be looking at the most recent success. This is what I call the "Larry Fitzgerald" effect. Especially if Larry plays well in the actual Superbowl, teams like Philly, and the Seahawks will be lining up to get that final piece to the puzzle. They saw what a unbelievable prospect Calvin Johnson was, and now they have their chance again with Michael Crabtree.

The Philadelphia trade is one of them. The nice thing about it, is we get an extra 2nd tier player. The way I've slotted it, is the first tier will be players had in the top 10. The 2nd tier is from there to the bottom of the 2nd round. These two tiers are where bonafide starters can be found. The only problem is we trade ourselves out from getting a first tier player. The Lions need a difference maker as much as they need depth. And I think we need to get one of these top 10 guys on my board.

1. BJ Raji DT Boston College
2. Brian Orakpo DE Texas
3. Aaron Curry LB Wake Forrest
4. Andre Smith LT Alabama
5. Eugene Monroe LT Virginia
6. Malcolm Jenkins CB Ohio State
7. Rey Maualuga LB USC
8. Jason Smith LT Baylor
9. Everette Brown DE Florida State
10. Michael Oher LT Ole Miss

This is why I would rather target teams in the top 5 and maybe 10. A trade down in the top 5 would require swapping firsts, and I would try to fleece them with a 2nd. If not settle for a 3rd rounder. If it's outside the top 5 and within the top 10, then they absolutely have to throw in a second rounder and maybe more. Who are 'realistic' teams to do this with? Let's start at the top.

2. Sant Louis - They will get their choice of left tackle. Too much supply, not enough demand.
3. Kansas City - There's a possiblity that they look for the franchise signal-caller. However, Pioli has had success finding late round QB gems.
4. Seattle - If they feel threatened by other teams possessed by the "Larry Fitzgerald" effect, then they could be the perfect partner.
5. Cleveland - I think they are assured of their choice of Malcolm Jenkins and Aaron Curry. Detroit won't get to fleece them this time.
6. Cincinatti - They've got their franchise QB, and unless Ocho-Cinco is dumped, they're not a likely partner. Unless they don't re-sign TJ and want to replace him in a big way.
7. Oakland - No one is more susceptible to the "Larry Fitzgerald" effect than Al Davis. Prime opportunity to raid the Raiders for maybe their first, second and a fourth (maybe third).
8. Jacksonville - No QB needed, and no reason to chase Fitz. I think they'd rather settle for Maclin if he's available and keep their picks. Or use their pick on a LT if they let Barnes go. Not a likely trade partner.
9. Green Bay - Their change of defensive scheme allows them to target players that aren't high in demand. Like Maybin.
10. San Francisco - They do need a quarterback, but they might be content to go with Sanchez and keep him in state. So unless they see a guy like Stafford as the answer, I think they might be too prudent of an organization to give up picks.

So it seems like the only realistic partners are Oakland, Seattle and maybe Kansas City. If any of them offered I would seriously consider anything they offer because we would still land a top 3 defender or a premier left tackle, and we wouldn't have to pay them as much.

The Philly trade is kind really lopsided in the Eagles favor. Maybe if they offerered a 2010 first rounder then I'd feel more comfortable.

_________________
Image
Lion http://www.suh93.com


January 29th, 2009, 5:28 pm
Profile WWW
#1 Overall Pick

Joined: October 13th, 2005, 10:34 am
Posts: 1427
Post 
mwill2 wrote:
If the Eagles really want a WR, and I'm not sure they do, why pay #1 overall money to Crabtree when they could draft Jeremy Maclin OR Percy Harvin (or both) with the picks they already have?


Maclin and Harvin are more like what they already have at WR....... and although they are INDEED faster and more explosive than DeSean Jackson...... those 2 guys do NOT have the SIZE that the Eagles need to become a more POTENT RED ZONE OFFENSE.

Philly has always downplayed WRs in the draft.

Andy Reid has been a little too arrogant about getting WRs..... despite having seen what a big downfield threat like T.O. could do for his offense.

The Eagles have seemed to avoid drafting WRs early in the draft...... but I think that may change this year. If they don't trade up.... they will still likely have a shot a getting Kenny Britt or Hakeem Nicks with their own picks.

Quote:
7. Oakland - No one is more susceptible to the "Larry Fitzgerald" effect than Al Davis. Prime opportunity to raid the Raiders for maybe their first, second and a fourth (maybe third).


Al Davis like the glam of taking high profile position players with SPEED.... and he also probably wants to give his high priced QB a target to throw deep balls. JaMarcus is a great player..... GET OVER IT!

On the other hand......

Al is CHEAP and may be satisified to draft Maclin or Harvin to get his fix of SPEED..... without having to pay huge bonus money again.


January 29th, 2009, 6:27 pm
Profile
Player of the Year - Defense

Joined: September 13th, 2007, 12:43 pm
Posts: 2692
Post 
Quote:
This is why I would rather target teams in the top 5 and maybe 10. A trade down in the top 5 would require swapping firsts, and I would try to fleece them with a 2nd. If not settle for a 3rd rounder.


Ideally the Lions would swap picks with Seattle and acquire their second rounder in the process. They could then draft Curry at a reasonable price and pick up Unger with Seattle's second rounder.

But this isn't likely to happen. Trading within the top 10 isn't likely to happen at all.

Why? Well if you go back and look at the years where teams traded up from within the top ten to the number one slot, all of those drafts had consensus number one overall picks.

Crabtree is a great prospect, and Stafford has a powerful arm, but neither of them are consensus top picks*. Yes, Seattle would probably love to have Crabtree and San Fran Stafford, but these teams have too many other needs to justify giving up the picks. If Crabtree is gone before #4, the hawks could just as easily take an OT or defensive help. San Fran is the same situation. The same team goes for nearly every team in the top ten--they are more than one player away by virtue of where they are drafting--so they can't afford to blow their picks just to get that one player.

That's why I say it is much more realistic to trade the pick to someone outside the top 10. These teams are better, and can afford to give away the draft picks. Philly fits better than any other team into this category.

*=assuming this doesn't change after the combine


January 29th, 2009, 7:01 pm
Profile
NFL Veteran
User avatar

Joined: September 15th, 2004, 6:02 am
Posts: 1355
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Post 
This is why I preface everything I say a team would be "crazy enough to ask for the first pick."

This is the year where it is least likely a trade can happen for the Lions. I only offer scenarios where it can happen in the top 10. And if the Lions are not willing to sell themselves short, they should not leave the top 10. It's not worth it. Philly's picks won't be worth it unless they throw in a future first rounder. So while I agree the Lions need more players, they still need premier difference makers... especially so if they don't plan on getting a big name FA.

_________________
Image
Lion http://www.suh93.com


January 29th, 2009, 7:09 pm
Profile WWW
Color Commentator - John Madden
User avatar

Joined: February 12th, 2006, 4:20 pm
Posts: 1861
Location: Des Moines, IA
Post 
mwill2 wrote:
If the Eagles really want a WR, and I'm not sure they do, why pay #1 overall money to Crabtree when they could draft Jeremy Maclin OR Percy Harvin (or both) with the picks they already have?


Or try to trade with the Cards for Boldin. Or try to pick up TJ Howsyourmama in FA. I would be willing to bet if the Cards don't try to sign Boldin long term the Eagles could get him for one of their first rounders and a third.

_________________
Image


January 29th, 2009, 10:07 pm
Profile
Heisman Winner

Joined: December 8th, 2008, 3:16 pm
Posts: 785
Post 
I like it kinda, I'd rather have a top 10 pick still though.

Eagles are just a physical receiver away from being an actual problem, so it would make sence for both teams.


January 29th, 2009, 10:16 pm
Profile
National Champion
User avatar

Joined: April 12th, 2005, 12:35 am
Posts: 881
Location: Boston, MA
Post 
I am not sure that I am crazy about this scenario. You would trade a shot at a potential franchise QB, the best linebacker prospect in years, or a bookend left tackle for a bunch of so-so prospects with pretty big question marks. Plus, I don't think that Philadelphia would go for this--they have a lot of depth at wide receiver and trading up that far is not their style--especially for a skill position player.

_________________
Alphonso Smith for Dan Gronkowski? Epic fail, McDaniels.


January 31st, 2009, 1:09 pm
Profile
Millen Draft Pick - Epic Bust

Joined: December 27th, 2006, 4:53 pm
Posts: 693
Post 
I would do it. The Lions could potentially take 4 players that could start for this team. At 20, the Lions could take a QB every bit as good as Stafford in Josh Freeman if they were so inclined, a tackle at 21, and defenders at 28 and 33. The options would vary greatly. It would be a strong move for a team that needs help at every position. It is the best trade dow idea ive heard.


February 2nd, 2009, 1:03 pm
Profile
Online
QB Coach

Joined: January 13th, 2006, 4:18 am
Posts: 3215
Location: Maryland
Post 
As soon as we locked up the #1 pick I was looking for trade down options and made some jokes to friends about getting both of the Eagles first rounders. That said, it will never happen. The Eagles organization doesn't make moves like that and I really don't see that changing. If they offered I would probably take the deal.


February 2nd, 2009, 7:15 pm
Profile
Hall of Fame Player
User avatar

Joined: May 7th, 2005, 3:25 pm
Posts: 7430
Location: Earth/Sagittarius Dwarf Galaxy
Post 
I still like my Jets trade down idea. I think we can benefit far greater than just this years draft by trading with a desperate Jets team. ( No starting QB if Favre retires and no good options in Free Agentcy, If Cassell don't get franchised too many teams, the Lions included, would push his price out of the Jets ability to pay).


February 4th, 2009, 6:37 pm
Profile
Millen Draft Pick - Epic Bust

Joined: December 27th, 2006, 4:53 pm
Posts: 693
Post 
Who the hell would Philly take at #1 anyway? Both starting tackles are old and free agents, but I dont see them trading up for a LT at all. A QB is out of the question as well. Trading up a few spots to get Moreno or a LT in the middle first is possible though.


February 4th, 2009, 7:24 pm
Profile
Rookie Player of the Year

Joined: October 13th, 2005, 9:03 am
Posts: 2308
Post 
Philly is going to hold onto at least one of those picks if Boldin is put up on the trading block. Even at the most minimal compensation for the #1 pick I can't see too many teams wanting to trade up for that pick. I think the best thing they can hope for is that Crabtree runs better than expected and some of the teams eyeing him don't want to miss out and lose him by being leapfrogged.


February 4th, 2009, 9:02 pm
Profile
RIP Killer
User avatar

Joined: October 20th, 2004, 4:16 pm
Posts: 9888
Location: Where ever I'm at now
Post 
Give it up. The Lions won't trade out of the number one simply because no one else will be interested in taking on that contract. It's just the way it is. If Matt Stafford was the consensus top player in football, I could see other teams being interested. But without a clear cut number one, it just won't happen.


February 4th, 2009, 10:01 pm
Profile
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic   [ 18 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group.
Designed by STSoftware.