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 Why is it.....? 
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Post Why is it.....?
Why is it that our biggest need and the value for where we are drafting NEVER are perfectly aligned? Yet, about half of the other teams needs and value picks align perfectly year in and year out? We always get stuck taking the value guy for the pick whether it's the right player for us or not. They always get the right player at the right value.

The Arizona Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings rosters are loaded with players that we needed, we wanted, but, weren't of the right value for our pick.

What gives? And how do we change it?


February 7th, 2009, 1:46 pm
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Post Re: Why is it.....?
BillySims wrote:
The Arizona Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings rosters are loaded with players that we needed, we wanted, but, weren't of the right value for our pick.


I think this is a really interesting observation. I am sure there is a somewhat circular reason underlying this phenomenon. I will simply add that the Skins seem to have drafted many players that we could have used as well. Usually, I think it comes down to the willingness to buck the conventional wisdom to take the player that your team needs worst at the time, regardless of the perceived popular value of the pick.

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February 7th, 2009, 1:57 pm
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The Packers are notorious for taking BPA regardless of need, and they seem to have good results with that.


February 7th, 2009, 6:05 pm
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I believe part of it is who is looking at it. I bet allot of fans from other teams say the same thing we are.


February 8th, 2009, 12:30 am
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well this year..if the lions can give up the hype that go's with the #1
i would just pull a minny, and let the clock go and take Curry at #2 or #3
so value matches the need..Ta da..done.. :lol:


February 8th, 2009, 12:32 pm
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I agree this is a perception item.

Can you give a specific instance of this. Last year in the first round we wanted a defensive lineman, Linebacker, running back, or offensive lineman.
We did a great job to trade down, get something extra and still fill one of those positions with the player we targeted.

The only other comment I have is this is a team who has had the worst 9 year stretch in NFL history and most recently 0-16. Every position is a NEED position so I am all for taking the best players available.


February 8th, 2009, 1:43 pm
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If the players we drafted we any good, we'd perceive their selections as good values. The problem is we've drafted lots of busts.


February 9th, 2009, 12:43 pm
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mwill2 wrote:
If the players we drafted we any good, we'd perceive their selections as good values. The problem is we've drafted lots of busts.


And we drafted those busts in lieu of the players we all wanted, but, weren't of the "PROPER VALUE for the pick".


February 9th, 2009, 1:59 pm
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BillySims wrote:
mwill2 wrote:
If the players we drafted we any good, we'd perceive their selections as good values. The problem is we've drafted lots of busts.


And we drafted those busts in lieu of the players we all wanted, but, weren't of the "PROPER VALUE for the pick".

I think it's mostly a perception thing. There are only a couple teams in the league who have regular success. The rest are up and down, and if you asked their fans during a down season, they'd say the team drafts poorly. Arizona is a great example. For years they've been a doormat, and if you had asked their fans about them last year, or even earlier this year, they'd probably say that the team did the same things you're saying about the Lions. It's rare that a player matches perfectly with a team from a draft position & availability standpoint. As mwill said, if the players turn out to be good, nobody cares where they were drafted. The "value" of a draft is largely the perception on draft day, and as we have all seen so many times, that has very little bearing on how the players actually turn out.

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February 9th, 2009, 2:10 pm
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Quote:
Why is it that our biggest need and the value for where we are drafting NEVER are perfectly aligned? Yet, about half of the other teams needs and value picks align perfectly year in and year out? We always get stuck taking the value guy for the pick whether it's the right player for us or not. They always get the right player at the right value.


Not only that.... but it seemed like the Lions ALWAYS missed out on a prospect I wanted them to get by 1 spot!!! Warning......this list contains graphic content that may cause NAUSEA, SICKNESS, or leave a BAD TASTE IN YOUR MOUTH.

1998 - Vonnie Holliday goes #19, the Lions draft Terry Fair #20
1999 - Champ Bailey goes #7, while the Lions get Claiborne at #9
2000 - Shaun Alexander goes #19, 1 pick before Stockar McDougle!
2001 - Steve Hutchinson gets picked 1 slot before the Lions get Backus.
2002 - Julius Peppers goes #2 overall... 1 pick ahead of Joey!
2003 - Carson Palmer goes #1 overall... 1 pick ahead of Crystal Rogers
2003 - Eric Steinbach goes #33, we get Boss Bailey at #34

2004 - Dansby and Snee are picked #33 and #34.... Lehman goes #37 (this one REALLY burned me)


2005 - Carlos Rogers (who Lions supposedly wanted) is picked #9, and we get fat BMW at #10 (of course, many of us would have been happy to take Shawn Merriman or Derrick Johnson instead!)

The Lions also took Stanley Wilson at #72... while Justin Tuck went #74. I had hoped after passing on Merriman that Millen would draft Tuck... who I saw terrorize U of M and thought... looks good to me! But I'm off topic.

2007 - Tony Ugoh goes #42, Drew Stanton #43
2007 - Victor Abiamiri goes #57... Alama-Francis goes #58



The WORST thing is that the players we DID get sometimes seemed to keep us from "NEEDING" good players at those positions in the future.

'97 and '98 drafts....Lions get Westbrook and Fair. In 1999, they PASS on CB Chris McAlister to draft LB Chris Claiborne.

In 2000... they PASS on LB Keith Bullock to draft McDougle.

In 2001... they drafted another OT (Backus), and they then PASSED on McKinnie in 2002 to draft their "franchise QB" in Joey.

In 2004... the Lions were still "developing" their franchise QB... so they couldn't take another QB that was available (Roethlisberger).

In 2006... the Lions had given up on Joey and decided to go with veterans at QB... bypassing Jay Cutler and Matt Leinart in the process.

In 2009... we NEED a QB, but this is... by most accounts... a WEAK class of QBs. This could set the Lions up for failure once again. IF the Lions draft Stafford at #1, then they will not be in a position to draft a QB next year, which is considered a far stronger group of QBs.

I can see it now.......... the Lions pick Stafford in 2009.... and then end up with a pick in the #5 to #10 range in 2010. There could be 1 or 2 QBs just as good as Stafford there to choose from.....but they would not be able to draft one.

Or worse yet....the Lions could end up with a top 3 pick in 2010.

The next 2 teams will need QBs.... but no other team choosing soon behind them will need a QB.... so the Lions will have ZERO leverage to make a trade, and get stuck paying TOP CA$H to a player that does not represent good value. :(


The Lions definitely seem to have bad luck.... and somehow found a way to make it worse all by themselves.


February 9th, 2009, 10:36 pm
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Excellent research Phunny,

Those examples are exactly the type of schleprock luck I was talking about.


February 10th, 2009, 10:00 am
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phunnypharm wrote:
Quote:
Why is it that our biggest need and the value for where we are drafting NEVER are perfectly aligned? Yet, about half of the other teams needs and value picks align perfectly year in and year out? We always get stuck taking the value guy for the pick whether it's the right player for us or not. They always get the right player at the right value.


Not only that.... but it seemed like the Lions ALWAYS missed out on a prospect I wanted them to get by 1 spot!!! Warning......this list contains graphic content that may cause NAUSEA, SICKNESS, or leave a BAD TASTE IN YOUR MOUTH.

1998 - Vonnie Holliday goes #19, the Lions draft Terry Fair #20
1999 - Champ Bailey goes #7, while the Lions get Claiborne at #9
2000 - Shaun Alexander goes #19, 1 pick before Stockar McDougle!
2001 - Steve Hutchinson gets picked 1 slot before the Lions get Backus.
2002 - Julius Peppers goes #2 overall... 1 pick ahead of Joey!
2003 - Carson Palmer goes #1 overall... 1 pick ahead of Crystal Rogers
2003 - Eric Steinbach goes #33, we get Boss Bailey at #34

2004 - Dansby and Snee are picked #33 and #34.... Lehman goes #37 (this one REALLY burned me)


2005 - Carlos Rogers (who Lions supposedly wanted) is picked #9, and we get fat BMW at #10 (of course, many of us would have been happy to take Shawn Merriman or Derrick Johnson instead!)

The Lions also took Stanley Wilson at #72... while Justin Tuck went #74. I had hoped after passing on Merriman that Millen would draft Tuck... who I saw terrorize U of M and thought... looks good to me! But I'm off topic.

2007 - Tony Ugoh goes #42, Drew Stanton #43
2007 - Victor Abiamiri goes #57... Alama-Francis goes #58



The WORST thing is that the players we DID get sometimes seemed to keep us from "NEEDING" good players at those positions in the future.

'97 and '98 drafts....Lions get Westbrook and Fair. In 1999, they PASS on CB Chris McAlister to draft LB Chris Claiborne.

In 2000... they PASS on LB Keith Bullock to draft McDougle.

In 2001... they drafted another OT (Backus), and they then PASSED on McKinnie in 2002 to draft their "franchise QB" in Joey.

In 2004... the Lions were still "developing" their franchise QB... so they couldn't take another QB that was available (Roethlisberger).

In 2006... the Lions had given up on Joey and decided to go with veterans at QB... bypassing Jay Cutler and Matt Leinart in the process.

In 2009... we NEED a QB, but this is... by most accounts... a WEAK class of QBs. This could set the Lions up for failure once again. IF the Lions draft Stafford at #1, then they will not be in a position to draft a QB next year, which is considered a far stronger group of QBs.

I can see it now.......... the Lions pick Stafford in 2009.... and then end up with a pick in the #5 to #10 range in 2010. There could be 1 or 2 QBs just as good as Stafford there to choose from.....but they would not be able to draft one.

Or worse yet....the Lions could end up with a top 3 pick in 2010.

The next 2 teams will need QBs.... but no other team choosing soon behind them will need a QB.... so the Lions will have ZERO leverage to make a trade, and get stuck paying TOP CA$H to a player that does not represent good value. :(


The Lions definitely seem to have bad luck.... and somehow found a way to make it worse all by themselves.


I can definitely imagine the Lions reaching to take Stafford this year and ,the next two years, continue to pick in the top 10 but being forced to pass on superior prospects like Bradford,Clausen and Snead. Then they'd have to reach again because they are already developing Stafford. That is why you can never reach when you are talking about the #1 pick in a draft. Quarterback or not. There are quarterbacks in every draft. Take the best player for 2009 and beyond. Dont take players for 2011 and beyond in 2009. Stafford is not a top 10 prospect in this draft. Neither QB is. Say the Lions took Andre this year at #1, and took Jimmy next year at #7 or so? Whats the difference?


February 10th, 2009, 1:46 pm
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Quote:
2005 - Carlos Rogers (who Lions supposedly wanted) is picked #9, and we get fat BMW at #10 (of course, many of us would have been happy to take Shawn Merriman or Derrick Johnson instead!)


This is kind of off topic, but has anyone ever looked at how terrible the 2005 first round turned out to be? Probably the worst ever:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_NFL_Draft


February 10th, 2009, 2:43 pm
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Blueskies wrote:
Quote:
2005 - Carlos Rogers (who Lions supposedly wanted) is picked #9, and we get fat BMW at #10 (of course, many of us would have been happy to take Shawn Merriman or Derrick Johnson instead!)


This is kind of off topic, but has anyone ever looked at how terrible the 2005 first round turned out to be? Probably the worst ever:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_NFL_Draft


Interesting "off topic" about the 05 draft! It had a lot of busts, thats for sure. I found it interesting that in Round 4 there are quite a few quality starters in the league from that round, as well as a few pro-bowlers. What's the common thread? Outside of round 7 the Lions had a pick or picks in each round except for round 4!

This year is an example of the Bobby Layne curse. The Lions have SOOOOOO many holes all over the field that are more pressing then QB and LT. Granted we need players in those two positions, but LB and CB and G and DE and... I mean we have to fill those positions at some point, but we'll end up taking a QB and a LT which they won't play much for the first year as we coddle them and hope they develop and the other rooks at the positions mentioned above will probably get tossed into the fray and we'll be even worse off. Yikes, we've got ISSUES!

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February 11th, 2009, 6:57 pm
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Why is it everyone thinks we need anouther LT? This debate seems pointless with backus and his big contract and scott linehan already saying Raiola and Backus and Cherilus are his foundation for the offence. I am not a Backus appologist or supporter I will be glad when we can upgrade. The point is we need guards. We need two starting guards and we can get them through FA/draft and have a decent line.

With LT out of the running for us I think its obvious we are either going to reach on a late riser from the DE/DT or are stuck drafting a QB. I really think the Lions brass is praying for Stafford to light it up for the prodays/combine and have some team fall in love with him to give us the moon in a trade. I personelly don't see it. I think we are stuck at 1 and have no other choice but to draft QB.

Our needs this draft/FA are...
QB
Two guards
DT
LB
CB
TE
WR/KR

I think when it comes to the QB position we can get by without drafting one if we can get a trade. If we can't we are stuck like it or not.


February 12th, 2009, 8:44 am
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