Investigating the compensatory mystery
March 13, 2009 2:53 PM
Posted by ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert
A tip of the hat to NFC West colleague Mike Sando, who flagged the latest offering from a fellow known as AdamJT13 -- a blogger who has gained some cyber-fame for his ability to predict the NFL's awarding of compensatory draft picks.
The league has never publicized the formula it uses for this program, which gives extra selections to teams that lost more talent than it gained in free agency the previous year. The picks can be as high as the third round and as low as the seventh. I won't overwhelm you with too many details, but in general AdamJT13 -- whose true identity is unknown -- believes it is primarily based on the average annual value of the contracts in question.
Here is AdamJT13's personal blog (http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/
), which lays out his methods.
Now, for the moment you've been waiting for: AdamJT13 predicts two NFC North teams will net extra picks when the NFL announces the results later this month.
Chicago Bears (3)
Players lost that impact formula: Bernard Berrian, John Gilmore, Brendon Ayanbadejo
Players gained that impact formula: None
Rounds: One in 4th (or possibly 3rd) and two 7ths Detroit Lions (2)
Players lost that impact formula: Damien Woody, Boss Bailey, T.J. Duckett
Players gained that impact formula: Brian Kelly, Michael Gaines, Chuck Darby
Rounds: Two in 7th