View unanswered posts | View active topics It is currently November 27th, 2014, 4:29 am



Reply to topic  [ 12 posts ] 
 Can you predict a YEAR in advance the strength of a class? 
Author Message
Pop Warner Vet
User avatar

Joined: November 11th, 2008, 12:28 pm
Posts: 111
Location: Grand Rapids
Post Can you predict a YEAR in advance the strength of a class?
Listening to both the pro-Stafford and anti-Stafford arguments, I hear a lot of people making strong, definitive statements about next year's QB class, either that "there are a lot of talented QB's next year (Bradford, McCoy, Tebow, etc) who we should wait for" (usually from the anti-Stafford group), or that "they're all system QB's who wouldn't succeed in the NFL" (typically from the pro-Stafford group).

I remember hearing during the whole Michael Vick drama over the summer of 2007 a number of predictions that the Falcons would pick Brian Brohm #1 overall in 2008. Of course, Brohm was not selected in the first round at all, and is now a backup in Green Bay. I recall some predictions of Heisman winner QB Troy Smith being a borderline first-round pick. He went in round 5 and is a backup. Aaron Curry was once believed to be maybe a middle-round pick, and now he's almost a lock to be the top defender a the draft that looks very strong at linebacker.

2000 didn't look like a good year for QB's, with only one QB selected in the first two rounds (Chad Pennington at #18 ), but two sixth-round QB's (Bulger and Brady) would go on to multiple pro bowls each, and Brady would be a HoFer.

2006 looked like a great QB class with three QB's going in the top 11 picks. Now, Young is on the bench, Leinhart is on the bench, and Cutler played really well but threw a hissy fit and got traded to another team, we'll see how that goes...

I'll stop rattling off examples, I know there are more. My point is, a year in advance, long before the college season has even started, how accurately can teams predict whether a particular class will be strong or weak at one position--and are these predictions accurate enough to make real draft decisions for this year?

Do you know of examples (I'd like to see them--I know I don't pay as much attention to college football as many on this board) where NFL teams intentionally make draft choices based on assumptions that there will be or won't be a guy available next year?

I guess my line of thinking (though I could be wrong) is that you never know who is going to stand out and really shine their senior year and who is going to drop like a brick.

It's hard enough to pick a QB in the draft with his entire college career on film and scrutinized for months--every year there's a high-profile bust. Isn't it even more difficult to predict a year ahead of time whether or not there will be a worthy NFL-quality QB to draft?


April 13th, 2009, 10:41 am
Profile
National Champion
User avatar

Joined: September 8th, 2006, 2:56 pm
Posts: 905
Location: lansing MI
Post 
i for one do not think you can predict.. that far out..

its all based on opinion..

i still don't really know about this years draft with 100% conviction.

I want the best player for this team.
my opinion is heavily wieghted based on the lions past faliures
at certain positions.
and the realitive condition of the team the player will be comming to
and the chances of success..

i think you have to factor in the team the draftee end up playing for.
as well to judge the potential for sucess..

no matter how you slice it its a crap shoot gamble.


April 13th, 2009, 11:58 am
Profile
Player of the Year - Defense

Joined: September 25th, 2007, 3:20 am
Posts: 2815
Post 
Troy Smith went late because of his size, but he would have been the starter in 08, if he didn't have a freak illness that caused him to lose 30lbs 2 weeks before the season opened. He might just win the job back before this 09 season is done.


April 13th, 2009, 1:02 pm
Profile
Team MVP
User avatar

Joined: February 20th, 2007, 10:51 pm
Posts: 3378
Location: Saginaw, MI
Post 
Its funny because some guys on this board THINK they can..

I dont think you can really, especially because a lot can happen in one year to affect how a guys draft status will go.

_________________
April 22nd, 2010 @ 7:44p.m. "The Detroit Lions select...Ndamukong Suh". Those are some beautiful words.


Lionbacker2 Fantasy Champion 2011


April 13th, 2009, 1:07 pm
Profile
RIP Killer
User avatar

Joined: June 26th, 2006, 1:03 pm
Posts: 13429
Post 
Smith deserves a second chance. He has the tools to be pretty decent.

_________________
regularjoe12 - "You are crackin me up! really! HILARIOUS um let me quote some intellgent people in this coneversation: Steensn:"


April 13th, 2009, 1:47 pm
Profile
NFL Veteran
User avatar

Joined: September 15th, 2004, 6:02 am
Posts: 1355
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Post 
I have one simple premise for the QB's.

Next year we will have seniors/RS JR's with multi-year starts.

Early-entry QB's have a shockingly high failure rate. Which is why I'm surprised that no one really makes a big deal out of it.

_________________
Image
Lion http://www.suh93.com


April 13th, 2009, 4:24 pm
Profile WWW
National Champion
User avatar

Joined: December 16th, 2008, 8:44 am
Posts: 843
Post 
Honolulu_Blue wrote:
I have one simple premise for the QB's.

Next year we will have seniors/RS JR's with multi-year starts.

Early-entry QB's have a shockingly high failure rate. Which is why I'm surprised that no one really makes a big deal out of it.


Stafford and Freeman have more starts as juniors than Ryan did last year as a senior. I'm not sold on Stafford, but you can't knock him for lack of starts. You could argue that any player could get better their senior year, and of course that is true, but he could also have an injury or have a down year. You can't knock them for coming out now. Sanchez on the other hand; he should have stayed and your argument is valid there.


April 13th, 2009, 4:42 pm
Profile
RIP Killer
User avatar

Joined: June 26th, 2006, 1:03 pm
Posts: 13429
Post 
It's hard, because we are drafting #1 overall. I think that is the biggest and hardest thing about this whole deal. Everyone knows just how important it is that we get this right. There is a sure deal pick if we have ever seen one in Curry. By all rights he is will be no less than a Pro Bowl caliber LB. (obviously anyone can bust, but he just seems like a no brainer). If we were drafting 5-10th, I am sure less people would have a problem drafting Stafford. heck, if we were sitting at # 9-15 and Sanchez was there I wouldn't have a problem snagging him and letting him sit a year.

We just need this to work out because the finances of getting this wrong are disastrous and will kill our team, see Harrington, Rogers, Williams, etc. We have been strapped down for so long with high draft picks that the potential of snagging a QB with the number one overall pick and the cap hit potential scares everyone to death. I personally am not against Stafford, but at number one he scares the crap outta me.

And what makes it even harder is that we don't have to pick first. It isn't a requirement so much as a right. We don't have to be strapped down and we could get an incredible can't miss player for half the cost by simply waiting.

_________________
regularjoe12 - "You are crackin me up! really! HILARIOUS um let me quote some intellgent people in this coneversation: Steensn:"


April 13th, 2009, 4:53 pm
Profile
National Champion
User avatar

Joined: April 12th, 2005, 12:35 am
Posts: 881
Location: Boston, MA
Post 
Honolulu_Blue wrote:
I have one simple premise for the QB's.

Next year we will have seniors/RS JR's with multi-year starts.

Early-entry QB's have a shockingly high failure rate. Which is why I'm surprised that no one really makes a big deal out of it.


Great point, HB. I agree 100%. I was on the Stafford train for awhile, but I have since changed my mind after investigating QB's further.

By the way, here (http://thegoodbyeladiesdraftreport.blogspot.com/2009/04/2010-quarterback-class-will-be-totally.html) is my take on next year's QB class, if you're interested. I basically make the argument that of all the guys in the "running" whoever makes it to the first round will probably be good.

I also agree that you can never say definitively whether a specific player will be a first round pick, but if there are a lot of guys "in the running" it is usually a safe assumption that the class as a whole will be good. This reminds me of the 2005 QB class. I remember there being considerable debate as to whether the Lions should pass on trading down and grabbing Stephen Jackson because the 2005 looked like a great running back class, and it turned out to be very, very deep at running back: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_query.cgi?pos=RB&round_1=1&round_2=30&tm=all&year_1=2005&year_2=2005&conference=any&type=.

_________________
Alphonso Smith for Dan Gronkowski? Epic fail, McDaniels.


April 13th, 2009, 9:54 pm
Profile
RIP Killer
User avatar

Joined: October 20th, 2004, 4:16 pm
Posts: 9954
Location: Where ever I'm at now
Post 
I can predict anything....it doesn't mean I'm gonna be correct. But I can offer any prediction.

Now, that said, can you accurately predict how good a draft class will be, or even an individual player? No. You can develop a hypothesis based on several factors: their strength of schedule, what position they play, their rate of ascension statistically from year to year, what kind of supporting talent they have around them, the idea that the player will be injury free, what underclassmen at that position may declare, and how well the player in question performs under pressure. Any player projected to be a "marquis" player is going to feel some heat, even at the college level.

All that being said, I simply don't have time to do all that research. Most people are basing their assumptions simply on what the player did this past season, and the likelihood of their improving some in the next season. As we well know, that isn't always the case....and that doesn't mean that they will maintain their high draft status projection.


April 13th, 2009, 10:10 pm
Profile
Play by Play Announcer - Al Michaels
User avatar

Joined: October 15th, 2005, 12:45 pm
Posts: 1834
Post 
IT can be difficult to predict where a players value may be a year prior. Somethings do not change however. I doubt that McCoy, Tebow, and Bradford change schemes for their senior year. I felt that the best QB's from available in this class declared early.


April 13th, 2009, 11:37 pm
Profile
Player of the Year - Defense

Joined: September 25th, 2007, 3:20 am
Posts: 2815
Post 
As far as predicting, you can predict who to watch based on this past year, but there will always be people that work hard in the off-season and surprise everyone. Mendenhall last year, Smith this year, and i'm sure others will emerge next year. Brohm was a sure fire first rounder prior to the 08 season, but change of coach, and scheme, and a bad w/l record, and he plummetted. The same could happen for Mccoy, Bradford, Tebow, or someone else could emerge.

So really, you can only predict who to watch out for, you can't guarantee where they'll go. Hell, we still don't know where people will go for sure next saturday. There might be alot of surprises on day 1, which makes it all worth watching.


April 14th, 2009, 12:00 am
Profile
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic   [ 12 posts ] 

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group.
Designed by STSoftware.