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 Mid Round Value 
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RIP Killer
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Post Mid Round Value
I was thinking about this last week, and today someone on the radio confirmed exactly what I was thinking. It seems to me that the quality at the top of this draft is, well, uninspiring. While I am completely confident that Aaron Curry IS the best prospect, and I believe he will be in impact player for a long time, I am not 'feeling the love' about the others available in the first 20 or so picks.

Even beyond those top 20, the difference in the quality you will get from the #21 guy to the #50 guy is barely noticeable. Likewise from #51 to #100.

All that being said, depending on which players are available, the Lions should strongly consider moving down at #20 and #33, to get more 3rd or 4th round picks.

I see some mocks showing Duke Robinson falling to the third round. I've even seen some which have Andy Levitre falling to the fourth round. I firmly believe that to meet the "Two Year Plan" of taking this team from 0-16 in 2008 to the playoffs in 2010 or 2011. we have to get outstanding value in those mid rounds.

Depending on what position you look at, the dropoff in talent just isn't that noticeable. For instance, if we don't get Patrick Chung because Dallas or the Giants take him in round two, or we really doing that badly if we "settle" for David Bruton or Michael Hamlin later on? Instead of getting Alphonso Smith or Darius Butler at #33, wouldn't a Keenan Lewis or Mike Mickens be a damn close substitute?

The difference in some of these players are their measureables But if I've learned nothing else, sometimes that has to be thrown out the window and look at how the kid plays. How well does he use those skills, those measureables, to be a better football player.

If the Lions want to field a damn good football team, they need to take football players, not just good athletes who play football. Chris Spielman wasn't a great athletic guy. Neither was Lomas Brown. But there were awesome football players.

I am not against taking the speed, height, weight, jump, etc. into consideration. But it's tough to measure heart and instincts. It seems, particularly in this draft, that's all that is separating mid first round to late third round players is the slimmest of margins.


April 22nd, 2009, 5:58 pm
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Trading down is a good idea in general, but you can't approach the draft and determine that you'll trade down at #20 and #33 from the outset.

There are too many variables. For instance if Jenkins or Maualuga fall and are available at #20, you don't want to trade that pick away.


April 22nd, 2009, 6:07 pm
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RIP Killer
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I'm always scared of the mid-round picks. There seems to be a significant drop off from rounds 2-3 and even bigger from 3-4. You can never count on them to bring good players, just backups and possibly special teamers. Yes, there are gems every once and a while, but it isn't often. Rounds 1-2 done right give you the most value for your picks and I would hate to move into the later part of round two for a few more later round picks. I think I disagree with:

Quote:
Even beyond those top 20, the difference in the quality you will get from the #21 guy to the #50 guy is barely noticeable. Likewise from #51 to #100.

All that being said, depending on which players are available, the Lions should strongly consider moving down at #20 and #33, to get more 3rd or 4th round picks.


I just don't buy it...

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April 22nd, 2009, 6:14 pm
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Blueskies wrote:
Trading down is a good idea in general, but you can't approach the draft and determine that you'll trade down at #20 and #33 from the outset.

There are too many variables. For instance if Jenkins or Maualuga fall and are available at #20, you don't want to trade that pick away.



m2karateman wrote:
All that being said, depending on which players are available, the Lions should strongly consider moving down at #20 and #33, to get more 3rd or 4th round picks.


Isn't that EXACTLY what I said right there?


April 22nd, 2009, 6:16 pm
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steensn wrote:
I'm always scared of the mid-round picks. There seems to be a significant drop off from rounds 2-3 and even bigger from 3-4. You can never count on them to bring good players, just backups and possibly special teamers. Yes, there are gems every once and a while, but it isn't often. Rounds 1-2 done right give you the most value for your picks and I would hate to move into the later part of round two for a few more later round picks. I think I disagree with:

Quote:
Even beyond those top 20, the difference in the quality you will get from the #21 guy to the #50 guy is barely noticeable. Likewise from #51 to #100.

All that being said, depending on which players are available, the Lions should strongly consider moving down at #20 and #33, to get more 3rd or 4th round picks.


I just don't buy it...


Normally I would agree with you, but even in this draft the analysts predictions are far more widespread than in previous draft years that I can recall. For instance, I've seen Duke Robinson projected high in round two, and low in round four......that's quite a spread. And that isn't typical in the first three to four rounds. Usually the top 100-120 players are pretty well agreed upon. I've seen Mike Mickens projected as a sixth rounder. And I'm not talking about some wannabe draft analyst on a "post your own" website. I'm talking about the guys writing for ESPN, Sportsline, or the various scouting websites. They do this for a living.

Even in the first round...Rey Maualuga projected by someone as a possible top ten, another projecting him to fall to number 30.

That is NOT a typical mock variation, particularly this close to the draft, for a legitimate first round pick. Even the top five remains highly unsettled. It's an odd draft year. Little top end quality, but pretty good talent in the middle that has minimal drop off from late first round to mid to late third round.


April 22nd, 2009, 6:23 pm
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I agree this is not a typical draft, certainly. But IMO that means talent you didn't expect to be there will be and that means possibilities of hitting it big with 20 and 33.

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April 22nd, 2009, 6:41 pm
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I've been all for trading that #20 pick to gain an extra 1st next year where the 1st round talent looks a little stronger at this point, especially on defense. I like the #33 but I'd be contact with teams like the Eagles and Giants to see what they'd give up for that pick in order to use it in a trade for Edwards or Boldin. Neither wants to give up their first for those guys but that first pick in the second round might get a deal done with the Cardinals or Browns.

I'd like to see them pick up another 2nd rounder, 3rd or early 4th rounder, and a 5th rounder this season. I'd really like that extra 1st rounder again next year to give them more fire power in what I think is going to be loaded with potential defensive studs.

If they take Stafford this season he's likely to sit anyways so they can get their LT in next year's draft with a class just as strong if not stronger instead of the 4th or 5th best LT this year. If they take Smith they'd be better suited to trade back and get as many defensive players as they can to build up some depth and hopefully find a starter or two. Then next year get a stud DE, DT, LB, or S with one of that extra 1st round pick. If Curry is the pick they again use those extra picks to spice up the defense. They can even get a guy like Brace if they get a mid 2nd rounder to help keep blockers off of Curry. Then use the two 1st round picks next year on LT, DE, DT, S, or even QB if they don't find a guy late this year.


April 22nd, 2009, 6:41 pm
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m2karateman wrote:
steensn wrote:
I'm always scared of the mid-round picks. There seems to be a significant drop off from rounds 2-3 and even bigger from 3-4. You can never count on them to bring good players, just backups and possibly special teamers. Yes, there are gems every once and a while, but it isn't often. Rounds 1-2 done right give you the most value for your picks and I would hate to move into the later part of round two for a few more later round picks. I think I disagree with:

Quote:
Even beyond those top 20, the difference in the quality you will get from the #21 guy to the #50 guy is barely noticeable. Likewise from #51 to #100.

All that being said, depending on which players are available, the Lions should strongly consider moving down at #20 and #33, to get more 3rd or 4th round picks.




I just don't buy it...


Normally I would agree with you, but even in this draft the analysts predictions are far more widespread than in previous draft years that I can recall. For instance, I've seen Duke Robinson projected high in round two, and low in round four......that's quite a spread. And that isn't typical in the first three to four rounds. Usually the top 100-120 players are pretty well agreed upon. I've seen Mike Mickens projected as a sixth rounder. And I'm not talking about some wannabe draft analyst on a "post your own" website. I'm talking about the guys writing for ESPN, Sportsline, or the various scouting websites. They do this for a living.

Even in the first round...Rey Maualuga projected by someone as a possible top ten, another projecting him to fall to number 30.

That is NOT a typical mock variation, particularly this close to the draft, for a legitimate first round pick. Even the top five remains highly unsettled. It's an odd draft year. Little top end quality, but pretty good talent in the middle that has minimal drop off from late first round to mid to late third round.



I have read and heard this years draft referred to as middle heavy. This goes along with what you are saying. I agree that if opportunity presents itself to trade back from 33 to get a later 2nd and maybe a 3 and a 5 thrown in. There are alot of quality players that get taken in the middle rounds. I'm hoping that Maualuga might still be there at 20. So, I wouldn't want to deal that pick unless the offer was rediculous.


April 22nd, 2009, 10:48 pm
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