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 Watkins scenario Pros/Cons 
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Post Re: Watkins scenario Pros/Cons
chilledmonkeybrains wrote:
I don't get the infatuation with picking CB in the first round. Results are somewhat mixed but usually there is around a 50/50 shot that they can become a pro-bowler and with a couple exceptions not many do that in year 1. So it would be the Lions that would take a 50/50 shot over a much more sure thing. Here is an interesting article on rookie CBs

http://sethbeccard.wordpress.com/2011/0 ... nfl-draft/


I think the same could said about every position. They all crash and burn as first round picks but some do become the real deal and that's the risk I feel you have to take at times. CBs are more important than they used to be in today's game. Our division has some of the finest receiving talent in the NFL. Why is this fact not important to some? It is one of our weaknesses and a no brainer to me to try and fix it.


April 11th, 2014, 12:45 pm
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Post Re: Watkins scenario Pros/Cons
njroar wrote:
Mack and Barr are good LB prospects, but people keep mentioning 3rd LB when the 3rd LB has become a 1-2 down player because of pass heavy offenses. You don't draft a 1-2 down player that high in the first round. Are you going to make Tully or Levy a 1-2 down player if you draft one of them? I think one of the corners would be a better pick if they stay put at #10 even though both big name prospects there scare me. Same with safety. neither is worth that high a pick.

The way I see it, if they trade up, it's not going to hurt us. Will we get more picks if we stay put? of course, but there's no guarantee that those picks pan out. It's always a guessing game either way.



I agree. I personally dont think Palmer played all that bad, its just in nickel situations he was the odd man out. Now, if Mack fell to the Lions (which wont happen i guarantee you), I would NOT pass on him.

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April 11th, 2014, 1:19 pm
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Post Re: Watkins scenario Pros/Cons
yostevo wrote:
chilledmonkeybrains wrote:
I don't get the infatuation with picking CB in the first round. Results are somewhat mixed but usually there is around a 50/50 shot that they can become a pro-bowler and with a couple exceptions not many do that in year 1. So it would be the Lions that would take a 50/50 shot over a much more sure thing. Here is an interesting article on rookie CBs

http://sethbeccard.wordpress.com/2011/0 ... nfl-draft/


I think the same could said about every position. They all crash and burn as first round picks but some do become the real deal and that's the risk I feel you have to take at times. CBs are more important than they used to be in today's game. Our division has some of the finest receiving talent in the NFL. Why is this fact not important to some? It is one of our weaknesses and a no brainer to me to try and fix it.


One facet explained in the article is that the CB position is way different than other positions specifically because CBs are evaluated mostly on their combine performance. They almost never face the same receivers that go as high as they do in the draft and the learning curve is steep. Take a look at the article and I think you will agree that CB is unique in that aspect.

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April 11th, 2014, 2:37 pm
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Post Re: Watkins scenario Pros/Cons
Good article by Chris McCosky of the Detroit News.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chris McCosky
Pros outweigh the cons in Lions' pursuit of Sammy Watkins



Allen Park — Two questions I’ve been getting a lot lately: Is the Lions’ interest in Clemson receiver Sammy Watkins a smokescreen and why are the Lions being so transparent about their interest in him?

Take the second one first. Why not be transparent about it? Who would they be trying to fool? He is going to be a top five pick, by all accounts. With the Lions owning the 10th pick, the last thing they have to worry about is hiding their interest. It’s not like they are giving away leverage — everybody knows Watkins’ value.

As for it being a smokescreen, put it this way — it would be one the most elaborate and time-consuming smokescreens ever. You don’t put as much time and effort as the Lions have put into vetting Watkins just for kicks and giggles.

General manager Martin Mayhew and coach Jim Caldwell had dinner with Watkins and his family prior to his pro day. They watched his pro day. They brought him back to the practice facility in Allen Park earlier this week for an official pre-draft visit. They worked out and interviewed his teammate, receiver Martavis Bryant. They had a private meeting and workout with his brother, cornerback Jaylen Watkins, who played at Florida.

Smokescreen? No.

The better question is why the Lions are so interested in Watkins given how expensive it will be to move up to get the second or third pick and how expensive their receiver corps already is with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate.

Personally, I am all for Mayhew going all out to add an immediate impact player in the first round. I love the aggressiveness. I love that he’s putting his team on notice that the window to win is now, that there is no five-year building plan, that he is willing to sacrifice a couple of potential future pieces in order to make the 2014 team as good as it can be.

Mayhew believes there are seven elite players at the top end of this draft and he’s got the 10th pick. Instead of waiting around to see what falls, he’s exploring all options to move up and get what he wants.

That’s what good general managers do.

Now what can certainly be debated is the prudence of trading away all the resources it will take to move up in the draft for a receiver when there are more glaring weaknesses on the defensive side of the ball.
Let's play pro and con

Pro: Draft experts like Mike Mayock and Mel Kiper, Jr., consider Watkins one of the best receiver prospects to come out in years. He’s big, strong, fast, can play outside and in the slot and has great hands. He’s as close to a can’t-miss game-changer as there is.

Con: The Lions already have Johnson and Tate and a receiver group that will cost them $22.5 million to put on the field next season. Why give up so many resources for another receiver, especially since the draft pool is deep in receivers. They could very likely get Texas A&M’s Mike Evans if they keep their pick at 10.

Pro: With Watkins, the Lions would be getting their eventual replacement for Johnson. Studies have shown that receivers’ production, particularly bigger-bodied ones like Johnson, begin to decline rapidly after they turn 30. Johnson is 29 and has battled through an assortment of injuries the last two years. The Lions are banking that he has at least three more highly productive years left, but adding Watkins along with Tate would certainly ease the pressure.

Con: The cost will be too high. It will probably cost them a couple of picks this year and maybe a first or a second next year. With all the holes that need to be filled, it’s counterproductive to bolster a position of strength (the offense) at the expense of fixing some of the weaknesses (the defense).

Pro: Unless the Lions can trade all the way up to the top to get Jadeveon Clowney (unlikely) or get up to the fourth or fifth pick to take Khalil Mack, there aren’t any other instant impact defensive players in the top 10. Most draft experts have the top cornerbacks — Darqueze Dennard (Michigan State) and Justin Gilbert (Oklahoma State) — going later in the first round. The highest-ranked defensive player after Clowney and Mack is Alabama safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. Would you really feel excited if the Lions stood pat with the 10th pick and took a safety? Would you feel good about using the 10th pick on a questionable pass-rush specialist like Anthony Barr?

The Lions, in all likelihood, aren’t going to fix their defensive issues with the 10th pick. They aren’t likely to get an immediate-impact offensive player there either, unless it’s an offensive tackle like Taylor Lewan, which they don’t really need.

So, good on Martin Mayhew for being proactive, for not settling, for working all the angles and exploring ways to get one of the seven players he and his staff have identified as elite prospects. Who knows if it will work out but you have to applaud the mindset and the ambition.

From The Detroit News: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/2014 ... z2yi9UvImg


April 12th, 2014, 6:05 pm
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Post Re: Watkins scenario Pros/Cons
Good article, Liontrax.

When the first rumor of the Lions really showing interest in Sammy Watkins came out, I was all about them not doing it. I thought it wasa no brainer horrible decision if they were to trade up. But ever since then I've done a TON of thinking about it, and thinking about their current roster and their situation currently and in the future, and now...I think it really would be a good move to get him. I really do. I dont like what players might be at #10 and whichever player it is, I dont think they would have the same impact on this team as Watkins would.

IF we gave up next years first, its not like we would be giving up a top-10 pick (or at least we shouldnt be). If we can hit 10 wins, we're talking giving away a pick around where we picked Reiff in 2012 (#23). Would I give that up to secure the talents of Watkins and have our future #1 WR? Absolutely.

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April 13th, 2014, 12:08 am
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Post Re: Watkins scenario Pros/Cons
kdsberman wrote:
Good article, Liontrax.

When the first rumor of the Lions really showing interest in Sammy Watkins came out, I was all about them not doing it. I thought it wasa no brainer horrible decision if they were to trade up. But ever since then I've done a TON of thinking about it, and thinking about their current roster and their situation currently and in the future, and now...I think it really would be a good move to get him. I really do. I dont like what players might be at #10 and whichever player it is, I dont think they would have the same impact on this team as Watkins would.

IF we gave up next years first, its not like we would be giving up a top-10 pick (or at least we shouldnt be). If we can hit 10 wins, we're talking giving away a pick around where we picked Reiff in 2012 (#23). Would I give that up to secure the talents of Watkins and have our future #1 WR? Absolutely.



Agree. I'd be more inclined to give next years 1st instead of this years 2nd. If this deal never comes to fruition, it was fun to think about anyway. Lions can still get a solid receiver prospect in the first 3 rounds. IMO, this years draft depth offers an opportunity to improve the depth chart with quality talent to develop into future starters. It's why I'm reluctant to part with any of the early round picks. To me it's not so much about what you do with the 1st pick, as what you do with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc.


April 13th, 2014, 9:02 am
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Post Re: Watkins scenario Pros/Cons
liontrax wrote:
kdsberman wrote:
Good article, Liontrax.

When the first rumor of the Lions really showing interest in Sammy Watkins came out, I was all about them not doing it. I thought it wasa no brainer horrible decision if they were to trade up. But ever since then I've done a TON of thinking about it, and thinking about their current roster and their situation currently and in the future, and now...I think it really would be a good move to get him. I really do. I dont like what players might be at #10 and whichever player it is, I dont think they would have the same impact on this team as Watkins would.

IF we gave up next years first, its not like we would be giving up a top-10 pick (or at least we shouldnt be). If we can hit 10 wins, we're talking giving away a pick around where we picked Reiff in 2012 (#23). Would I give that up to secure the talents of Watkins and have our future #1 WR? Absolutely.



Agree. I'd be more inclined to give next years 1st instead of this years 2nd. If this deal never comes to fruition, it was fun to think about anyway. Lions can still get a solid receiver prospect in the first 3 rounds. IMO, this years draft depth offers an opportunity to improve the depth chart with quality talent to develop into future starters. It's why I'm reluctant to part with any of the early round picks. To me it's not so much about what you do with the 1st pick, as what you do with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc.


No matter what they do this year they will have 2 4th round picks, so that's one reason I wouldn't mind them trading up. IMO best case scenario would be them getting away with just trading their 3rd and 4th this year along with their 1st next year. Then they can trade down a bit in the second to get a another 3rd or 4th back. St' Louis already has 2 first rounders this year so they may be very receptive to more future picks than extras this year.


April 13th, 2014, 10:14 am
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Post Re: Watkins scenario Pros/Cons
It will be most interesting to see what Lions do if there are no takers at the top when Watson is still on the board. If the price is prohibitive, or the team in question wants to keep him for themselves. Say this happens, and at 7 Tampa Bay takes Evans. We're picking at 10 and supposedly our guys of interest are gone. What is the feeling out there for Odell Beckham? I've noticed he's climbing some of the big boards. Could there be an interest by the Lions? Not to sure if I believe the Lions were at LSU to look at a QB. We still get a top receiver and don't have to give up any of our picks. Any opinions?


April 13th, 2014, 8:16 pm
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Post Re: Watkins scenario Pros/Cons
IMHO I don't see a significant difference in talent from Watkins to Evans to Beckham to Lee. Watkins is just the most pro ready. But, Evans and Beckham are right there about a half step behind Watkins. Lee was considered the premier WR going into this season. Butt, I think he played cautiously to avoid injury like Clowney, and it has hurt Lee in the ratings.


April 13th, 2014, 11:37 pm
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Post Re: Watkins scenario Pros/Cons
BillySims wrote:
IMHO I don't see a significant difference in talent from Watkins to Evans to Beckham to Lee. Watkins is just the most pro ready. But, Evans and Beckham are right there about a half step behind Watkins. Lee was considered the premier WR going into this season. Butt, I think he played cautiously to avoid injury like Clowney, and it has hurt Lee in the ratings.


Lee was hurt all the time with nagging issues and had a bad knee injury. He also had a crazy coaching situation to make things worse. Those are the reasons he's dropped so much, but mostly it's because of his long-term durability concerns. He could easily be the next Broyles.

The big difference between Watkins and all the other WRs is he's a complete package. He's got speed to take the top off defenses, dependable hands, outstanding leaping ability, and great physicality. None of the other WRs have all that. Beckham is your standard smaller deep threat/slot receiver, Lee has durability issues, and Evans won't be able to separate at the NFL level and has maturity issues.


April 14th, 2014, 1:05 am
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Post Re: Watkins scenario Pros/Cons
rao wrote:
BillySims wrote:
IMHO I don't see a significant difference in talent from Watkins to Evans to Beckham to Lee. Watkins is just the most pro ready. But, Evans and Beckham are right there about a half step behind Watkins. Lee was considered the premier WR going into this season. Butt, I think he played cautiously to avoid injury like Clowney, and it has hurt Lee in the ratings.


Lee was hurt all the time with nagging issues and had a bad knee injury. He also had a crazy coaching situation to make things worse. Those are the reasons he's dropped so much, but mostly it's because of his long-term durability concerns. He could easily be the next Broyles.

The big difference between Watkins and all the other WRs is he's a complete package. He's got speed to take the top off defenses, dependable hands, outstanding leaping ability, and great physicality. None of the other WRs have all that. Beckham is your standard smaller deep threat/slot receiver, Lee has durability issues, and Evans won't be able to separate at the NFL level and has maturity issues.

rao, I agree word for word. especially about Evans. As far as WRs go, I think it is a group that is deep enough to wait for rd 2 if we don't trade up for Watkins. I think that players like Cody Latimer, Devonte Adams, Jordan Matthews, Allan Robinson could become very good wideouts to be had in the 2nd round. Moncrief is climbing boards fast enough to maybe put himself in the first round and Kelvin Benjamin is falling fast enough to perhaps fall into the middle of round 2. But I am still in favor of pursuing Sammy Watkins who I see as a guy who can play every WR position, demands attention on screens and reverses, and blocks. Plus I think that learning from Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson could bring out Watkin's full potential at the next level.

On a side note, for all CJ's work catching the ball, he has always blocked well.

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April 14th, 2014, 3:22 am
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Post Re: Watkins scenario Pros/Cons
kdsberman wrote:
My thoughts as well. Though Calvin is still the best WR in the game, he isnt going to last forever. And I think M2K said this before and I agree, I only see a couple more years left before hes not the same player. Watkins isnt just "this years best WR". Hes in the tier of AJ Green and Julio Jones. I think moving up (as long as we dont give up the farm) is a move with both the present and future in mind. The guy has a great worth ethic, great character, he is a complete WR with good size, great speed, great hands and route running. Durability isnt an issue neither. This guy is the complete package.


This is how I feel about it. I don't think we should mortgage the farm, but if this guy is the real thing, we should try to get him. This team just looked dead without CJ on the field and it wouldn't be any different without CJ but with Tate. It would be good to have another first-rate wide receiver. Also, CJ isn't getting any older and already has knee problems. What happens if he simply can't play for several games? We would need to get his replacement eventually and now seems like as good a time as ever.


April 14th, 2014, 5:11 am
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Post Re: Watkins scenario Pros/Cons
I agree they shouldn't sell the farm for Watkins and like I've said before I see no reason to think Mayhew would do that. Mayhew has shown he has self control when trying to get his guy. If they can't get Watkins I would really like to see them maneuver themselves to get Moncrief. IMO Moncrief looks the part of a Josh Gordon type without the baggage.


April 14th, 2014, 10:37 am
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Post Re: Watkins scenario Pros/Cons
This is such a bad idea the lions are sure to do it. It excites the fans it imagine the matchup nightmares that the wr corps would create. It's stupid to draft a wr at 2. Even dumber to give up multiple picks in the deepest draft in memory to do so.

Can anyone name for me the 'can't miss WR' drafted in the top 6 picks say who has carried his team to a Super Bowl title?

Crickets??

You can't build your team around wideouts. They are ancillary players. If you give up 3 picks to get this guy you torpedo your depth going forward and you don't get LBs OGs and the other foundational players that make up the core of your team.

If you want to go up to get Clowney, I can relate. For a WR no way.

If Patrick Peterson was there, ok again. Not like that this year.

There is another Titus Young out there who will not flake out. Find him later and you are all set.

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April 20th, 2014, 8:25 am
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Post Re: Watkins scenario Pros/Cons
jrd66 wrote:
This is such a bad idea the lions are sure to do it. It excites the fans it imagine the matchup nightmares that the wr corps would create. It's stupid to draft a wr at 2. Even dumber to give up multiple picks in the deepest draft in memory to do so.

Can anyone name for me the 'can't miss WR' drafted in the top 6 picks say who has carried his team to a Super Bowl title?

Crickets??

You can't build your team around wideouts. They are ancillary players. If you give up 3 picks to get this guy you torpedo your depth going forward and you don't get LBs OGs and the other foundational players that make up the core of your team.

If you want to go up to get Clowney, I can relate. For a WR no way.

If Patrick Peterson was there, ok again. Not like that this year.

There is another Titus Young out there who will not flake out. Find him later and you are all set.


You can't name any player other than QB that has carried their team to a Super Bowl and I'd even argue that too. No LB or DE carried their team to a Super Bowl either. It's a team game that requires a balance of talent and role players across all positions. Even if the Lions give up a few picks to get Watkins they can later trade back into round 2 or 3 using picks for next year which is supposed to be incredibly thin. The Lions aren't building for the future with this draft, they aren't looking for prospects they want as close to sure thing impact guys right now and there is only 5 of them in the draft. Watkins happens to be one of them and he also fills a need for them on the team. The Lions also brought in Mack and Clowney, so it seems like they are aimed to trade up for one of the elite guys if possible, not just Watkins.


April 20th, 2014, 9:46 am
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