I see it like a job interview. You can have a good idea of an applicant's 'upside,' but that's no guarantee it will pan out. At the same time, I've seen red flags crop up in the interview process that foreshadowed a person being a bad employee.

You can only hope you ask the right questions, know what you're looking for, and trust your judgment. Some people do that better than others, but I agree there's no secret code to be cracked.

Agreed. And to take your example a bit further, while an applicant may be qualified for the job, if they're not hired by the right company, they may not succeed. Sometimes the company doesn't have a solid enough foundation to all the applicant to grow.

As an example: We all know several of the Lions picks haven't panned out, but how much of that had to do with the organization's lack of a solid foundation? If Charles Rogers or Mike Williams were drafted by say the Patriots, is there any doubt they would've had a more successful career? Not in my mind. Part of the reason why Belichik always seems to find 'draft steals' is because his staff knows how to develop their players.

Belichick isn't the savvy guru when it comes to the draft, he has numerous first and second round whiffs especially at WR and DB. At the end of the day there are guys with unbelievable talent and guys with just enough. The great ones are usually the ones with talent that love and respect the game enough to punt the time in and be great. The guys with marginal talent but with that same drive sometimes reach that same level but even if they don't they are the ones that make names for themselves to at least put them in the conversation. The guys that wash out are one that some times just don't have it, but more often than not the whiffs are guys that don't care about the game and did just enough to get a paycheck. Desire is the unmeasurable trait and in the interview process is probably one of the easiest to fake especially with how well these guys are coached up in the pre draft.

Belickick looks good cuz he always has a vast amount of draft picks. They are great at trading away players and picks for future picks. they almost always have 10 or more picks each draft (at least thats what it seems like ). if Kelly's example of 50/50 is right, that still give the Patriots 5 productive draft picks....almost every year. people dont talk much about the 5(ish) busts, cuz there are so many draftees being productive.

Yeah this is just flat out not true. Belicheck isn't some draft guru. Far from it. Here's a look at his 5 most recent drafts:

Year Rnd Pick
2014 1 29 Dominique Easley DT
2014 2 62 Jimmy Garoppolo QB
2014 4 105 Bryan Stork OL
2014 4 130 James White RB
2014 4 140 Cameron Fleming OL
2014 6 179 Jon Halapio OL
2014 6 198 Zach Moore DE
2014 6 206 Jemea Thomas CB
2014 7 244 Jeremy Gallon WR

2013 2 52 Jamie Collins LB
2013 2 59 Aaron Dobson WR
2013 3 83 Logan Ryan DB
2013 3 91 Duron Harmon DB
2013 4 102 Josh Boyce WR
2013 7 226 Michael Buchanan DE
2013 7 235 Steve Beauharnais LB

2012 1 21 Chandler Jones DE
2012 1 25 Donta Hightower LB
2012 2 48 Tavon Wilson FS
2012 3 90 Jake Bequette DE
2012 6 197 Nate Ebner DB
2012 7 224 Alfonzo Dennard DB
2012 7 235 Jeremy Ebert WR

2011 1 17 Nate Solder OL
2011 2 33 Ras-I Dowling DB
2011 2 56 Shane Vereen RB
2011 3 73 Stevan Ridley RB
2011 3 74 Ryan Mallett QB
2011 5 138 Marcus Cannon OL
2011 5 159 Lee Smith TE
2011 6 194 Markell Carter LB
2011 7 219 Malcolm Williams DB

2010 1 27 Devin McCourty DB
2010 2 42 Rob Gronkowski TE
2010 2 53 Jermaine Cunningham LB
2010 2 62 Brandon Spikes LB
2010 3 90 Taylor Price WR
2010 4 113 Aaron Hernandez TE
2010 5 150 Zoltan Mesko P
2010 6 205 Ted Larsen C
2010 7 208 Thomas Welch T
2010 7 247 Brandon Deaderick DE
2010 7 248 Kade Weston DT
2010 7 250 Zac Robinson QB

From this list, there is only 1 All Pro (Gronkowski), and 2 Pro Bowl players (McCourty and Gronkowski). Both of those two were drafted in 2010. Since then there hasn't been a pro bowler or all pro from any of the Pats draft picks. Going back even further, Belicheck took over back in 2000. Over that time there have been a total of 9 All Pro players, and 13 pro bowlers.

If you drill down further, last year's draft found them 1 starter, 2013 found 2, 2012 found 3 (though I don't think Alfonzo Dennard is anything to write home about), etc. He had 1 big year (2010) where he got Gronkowski, Spikes, McCourty, and Hernandez. Of those, only Gronkowski is still a good player. McCourty has been ok, Spikes is now on buffalo and is average, and Hernandez is in prison.

The reality is Belicheck got really lucky to get Brady, and that combined with him being a great coach means NE is always good. They don't have particularly great players at any position other than QB. That's one of the reasons I think they haven't won a SB in 10 years. They have an elite QB, decent other players, but no other top tier playmakers that you need to win the championship.

I dont recall saying he was a guru...I think what I said was


And considering 3 out of the 5 years you posted he had 9 or more draft picks in the year, i think you backed up my statement perfectly. I also didnt use the term "pro bowl" when refering to his players either. I believe I said

all that being said I do agree fully with your final paragraph.

Gronk wasn't a brilliant move either, it was a gamble that paid off. While Gronk was in college he looked like the most dominant TE to play in quite some time but he had back surgery and that threw up huge medical red flags and questions if he would ever be the same player again.

I think in the case of Charles Rogers, it wouldn't have made a difference. He was bound and determined to puff his life away, regardless of what outside influences there may have been. In the case of Mike Williams, I would agree with you. Part of the issue with Mike Williams as that dumbazz Rod Marinelli wanted him to play at a certain weight, and kept harping on him about it. While I understand that we don't want players to balloon to being non-productive, NOBODY can convince me that BMW playing at 238 lbs. was going to be that significantly worse than if the guy was at 229 lbs. (the weight Rod wanted him at). You draft a guy 10th overall, and then keep him off the field over 9 lbs.? That shows how bad Marinelli was.

If you look at Lions drafts, the real tell tale thing is how many of those higher picked (4th round and above) players not only barely got through their first contracts, but failed to do anything of note in the league once they were released or left in FA. If the players were any damn good, they would have caught on with another team and made something happen. The picks made by Millen just flat out sucked.