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 Time to start Draft talk for 2016 
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Post Re: Time to start Draft talk for 2016
m2karateman wrote:
Here are the Lions choices regarding Reiff;

1. Retain him as a LT, pay him what he is due, and keep the RT situation as is with Ola, Lucas and Robinson. Not very attractive.
2. Move Reiff to RT, pay him what he is due, and look for a FA upgrade at LT, which will cost about $6-8$ in 2016 (at least) against the cap. It would help short term, but expect Reiff to be gone in 2017.
3. Cut Reiff and save the $8M, sign a FA LT, keep the RT situation as is. Still not attractive.
4. Cut Reiff, save the $8M, sign a FA LT, and draft a RT in the early rounds. Could work out, but it depends on who is signed and who is drafted.
5. Extend Reiff to a long term deal, thereby lowering his cap hit in 2016. Use the money saved to sign an offensive tackle, either right or left. Then, move Reiff accordingly to make the line as strong as is possible. Once he's signed to an extension, the Lions can move him where they want.

Personally, I like option number five. Give him an extension, lower his cap number, get another offensive tackle of starting quality, and put the pieces where they are most effective.



Agree. Seems like a no-brainer to me. Besides, I think the coaching staff has more faith in Reiff than the fans do. Solid if unspectacular LT's still comand big $ in free agency, and that's probably what we'd find in a FA. I believe they should continue to ride Reiff for the time being as well as draft 1 or 2 OT's to develop. Might get lucky with a 2nd to 4th rounder. Doubt there will be any franchise LT's at our pick, and the tackles that are available won't be considerably better than what they'll find a round or two later.


January 31st, 2016, 6:45 pm
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Post Re: Time to start Draft talk for 2016
I thought this thread was about the draft, not the life and times of Riley Reiff.


January 31st, 2016, 8:33 pm
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Post Re: Time to start Draft talk for 2016
m2karateman wrote:
Here are the Lions choices regarding Reiff;

1. Retain him as a LT, pay him what he is due, and keep the RT situation as is with Ola, Lucas and Robinson. Not very attractive.
2. Move Reiff to RT, pay him what he is due, and look for a FA upgrade at LT, which will cost about $6-8$ in 2016 (at least) against the cap. It would help short term, but expect Reiff to be gone in 2017.
3. Cut Reiff and save the $8M, sign a FA LT, keep the RT situation as is. Still not attractive.
4. Cut Reiff, save the $8M, sign a FA LT, and draft a RT in the early rounds. Could work out, but it depends on who is signed and who is drafted.
5. Extend Reiff to a long term deal, thereby lowering his cap hit in 2016. Use the money saved to sign an offensive tackle, either right or left. Then, move Reiff accordingly to make the line as strong as is possible. Once he's signed to an extension, the Lions can move him where they want.

Personally, I like option number five. Give him an extension, lower his cap number, get another offensive tackle of starting quality, and put the pieces where they are most effective.


there are other options like leave his current contract as is and do what you can in free agency to woo one of the top LTs available. If that happens, you can then shop reiff knowing that Ola is a decent option at RT and that you re in good draft position to land another starting quality OT. If you hate Ola or the draft prospects you can stick with Reiff. If you cant sign the LT, then you stick with Reiff - I dont see where the risk is? If you sign the LT and cant get a good return for Reiff then try to extend him if he s being reasonable. If he wants LT money to play RT then you have to let him play out his deal. I would strongly oppose extending Reiff prior to Free Agency bc at that point he becomes very difficult to move and you re stuck like Millen and Mayhew's Lions with a subpar player getting big money at a cornerstone position.


February 1st, 2016, 10:04 pm
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Post Re: Time to start Draft talk for 2016
liontrax wrote:
m2karateman wrote:
Here are the Lions choices regarding Reiff;

1. Retain him as a LT, pay him what he is due, and keep the RT situation as is with Ola, Lucas and Robinson. Not very attractive.
2. Move Reiff to RT, pay him what he is due, and look for a FA upgrade at LT, which will cost about $6-8$ in 2016 (at least) against the cap. It would help short term, but expect Reiff to be gone in 2017.
3. Cut Reiff and save the $8M, sign a FA LT, keep the RT situation as is. Still not attractive.
4. Cut Reiff, save the $8M, sign a FA LT, and draft a RT in the early rounds. Could work out, but it depends on who is signed and who is drafted.
5. Extend Reiff to a long term deal, thereby lowering his cap hit in 2016. Use the money saved to sign an offensive tackle, either right or left. Then, move Reiff accordingly to make the line as strong as is possible. Once he's signed to an extension, the Lions can move him where they want.

Personally, I like option number five. Give him an extension, lower his cap number, get another offensive tackle of starting quality, and put the pieces where they are most effective.



Agree. Seems like a no-brainer to me. Besides, I think the coaching staff has more faith in Reiff than the fans do. Solid if unspectacular LT's still comand big $ in free agency, and that's probably what we'd find in a FA. I believe they should continue to ride Reiff for the time being as well as draft 1 or 2 OT's to develop. Might get lucky with a 2nd to 4th rounder. Doubt there will be any franchise LT's at our pick, and the tackles that are available won't be considerably better than what they'll find a round or two later.


Doesnt seem that the offensive coordinator has that much faith in him at LT.

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/l ... /78134942/


February 1st, 2016, 10:08 pm
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Post Re: Time to start Draft talk for 2016
The Legend wrote:
m2karateman wrote:
Here are the Lions choices regarding Reiff;

1. Retain him as a LT, pay him what he is due, and keep the RT situation as is with Ola, Lucas and Robinson. Not very attractive.
2. Move Reiff to RT, pay him what he is due, and look for a FA upgrade at LT, which will cost about $6-8$ in 2016 (at least) against the cap. It would help short term, but expect Reiff to be gone in 2017.
3. Cut Reiff and save the $8M, sign a FA LT, keep the RT situation as is. Still not attractive.
4. Cut Reiff, save the $8M, sign a FA LT, and draft a RT in the early rounds. Could work out, but it depends on who is signed and who is drafted.
5. Extend Reiff to a long term deal, thereby lowering his cap hit in 2016. Use the money saved to sign an offensive tackle, either right or left. Then, move Reiff accordingly to make the line as strong as is possible. Once he's signed to an extension, the Lions can move him where they want.

Personally, I like option number five. Give him an extension, lower his cap number, get another offensive tackle of starting quality, and put the pieces where they are most effective.


there are other options like leave his current contract as is and do what you can in free agency to woo one of the top LTs available. If that happens, you can then shop reiff knowing that Ola is a decent option at RT and that you re in good draft position to land another starting quality OT. If you hate Ola or the draft prospects you can stick with Reiff. If you cant sign the LT, then you stick with Reiff - I dont see where the risk is? If you sign the LT and cant get a good return for Reiff then try to extend him if he s being reasonable. If he wants LT money to play RT then you have to let him play out his deal. I would strongly oppose extending Reiff prior to Free Agency bc at that point he becomes very difficult to move and you re stuck like Millen and Mayhew's Lions with a subpar player getting big money at a cornerstone position.


I would only extend Reiff if he is being reasonable. But you can't expect a guy who has played a premier position for the last three seasons to accept money as if he played a less than premier position. It would be like telling your QB of three seasons you aren't going to pay him typical QB money because you might make him a running back. I don't see Reiff commanding top dollar as a LT. If he does have his agent come in like that, then the Lions can make a simple statement to him by walking away from the bargaining table and setting matters in motion to move on without him. At that point, make every effort to sign a FA LT, and if that happens, just release him. He isn't going to reconsider his demands. He might just want off the team, much like Avril.

Your first proposal isn't one I would even consider. Why? Do you really think any team is going to be willing to pay Reiff $8M for one season, AFTER trading for him? And then risk losing him in FA? I don't. The Lions pulled that stunt with Ngata, and I think it was one of the dumbest moves of Mayhew's tenure....and that's saying something. Not every GM is that freakin' moronic.

Apparently you have more faith in Ola than I do. He was a pretty good stopgap. But I didn't really view him as a future lockdown RT. I'd prefer to see the Lions take a hard look at upgrading that spot.

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February 2nd, 2016, 8:47 pm
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Post Re: Time to start Draft talk for 2016
m2k - i agree with your sentiment. I dont expect Reiff to take a lesser deal which is why I dont see such a great scenario for the Lions keeping him here. They ll either pay him LT money and keep him at LT where they ll kind of get by but have a significant vulnerability or they ll pay him LT money to play RT where they arent getting good value and eating cap space that could go towards having a better player at another position like DT or CB for example.

I understand your Ngata comparison but IMO the situation is different. Ngata is past his prime and has had some nagging health issues - Reiff is still young and approaching his prime without any health issues. I would also say the Ngata thing may have worked out had Ngata been healthy early in the season and Walker also getting hurt didnt help (I would still question giving up 2 picks for Ngate though for only one season). Regardless, any trade w Reiff would hinge around a team willing to give up a draft pick for Reiff then turning around and working out an extension for him - both to lock him for a few years and lower his cap number. If Reiff is adamant he hits free agency then the Lions wont be able to trade him.

As for hypothetical timing of a trade, if the Lions extend Reiff first then the signing bonus money gets accelerated onto the Lions cap if he were to be traded which makes it very difficult to the Lions to be able to afford trade him in such a situation. In other words, if he s traded its this offseason under his current deal not after an extension.


February 2nd, 2016, 10:50 pm
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Post Re: Time to start Draft talk for 2016
Top LT money is $14million. Average LT money is $7. He's not getting top LT money, but he CAN still play LT, so that's why I have zero problems with paying him average LT money per year on an extension even if you play him at RT. If whoever they bring in or draft to play LT gets hurt, Reiff steps in at LT and doesn't feel underpaid. I'll pay $7 mill a year instead of $6 million a year to have that depth at LT just incase. And I have zero faith in Ola since he didn't stay healthy and he didn't play the entire season, so where's the depth after that?

Maybe I'm just looking at it differently because I'm looking at OT top to bottom. Top LT FA or top LT Draft, Reiff, Ola, Lucas, Robinson. That's the depth currently and I'd be less worried about the line with Reiff as the #2 spot on the depth chart as compared to a question mark. Even if it costs $2-3 million more per year. That's $2-3 million is protecting $20 million.

We've had many more holes on the team and had less than $10 million to work with in the past. And that was with Mayhew at the helm. We've got $30 now, mostly likely $40 because of CJ and another $9million with most-likely cuts giving us $50 million prior to resigning our own free agents. There's places to be tight with money, but OL isn't one of them, especially when it's someone that's dependable. He might not be an all-pro, but he's young, healthy and consistent.


February 3rd, 2016, 1:27 am
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Post Re: Time to start Draft talk for 2016
Dont hold me to this but how about this for an offseason? Need to stimulate some kind of conversation on here.

Im going to try to do some heavy lifting with the Lions cap space: Cordy Glenn at LT, Ian Williams at DT, and Marvin Jones at WR, TE MarQueis Gray, TE Dwayne Allen, FS Tony Jefferson, re-sign Whitehead LB, Walker DT. Cap cut Tulloch, Pettigrew, Bell, Mathis. Proceed as if CJ retiring.


1. Emmanuel Ogbah DE OkSt
2. Eli Apple CB, Ohio St
COMP3 Jordan Howard, RB, Indiana
4. Rashard Higgins, WR, Colorado St
5. Jerald Hawkins, OT, LSU
5. Willie Beavers, OG/T, Western Michigan
COMP5. Deon Bush, S, Miami
6. Keyaris Garret, WR, Tulsa
6. Mehdi Abdesmad, DT, Boston College
7. Travis Wilson, QB, Utah

Roster:

qb - stafford/orlovsky/wilson
rb - howard/abdullah/riddick/zenner
fb - burton
te - ebron/allen/gray
wr - m. jones/g. tate/higgins/tj jones/garret
ot - glenn/reiff/ola/hawkins
og - tomlinson/warford/beavers
c - swanson/ramirez

k - prater
p - martin
ls - muhlbach

de - ansah/ogbah/d taylor
dt - williams/walker/reid/wright/abdesmad
olb - levy/bynes/copeland
mlb - whitehead/lewis
cb - slay/apple/lawson/diggs/carter
s - quinn/jefferson/bush/carey


February 8th, 2016, 9:57 pm
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Post Re: Time to start Draft talk for 2016
Prospects the Lions have met with at the NFL combine according to walterfootball (2 days old)

http://imgur.com/YLG8qf3

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February 29th, 2016, 3:35 pm
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Post Re: Time to start Draft talk for 2016
W/o addressing the offensive line in FA, I'm starting to lean toward an OT at 16 or a trade up or down

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March 21st, 2016, 4:16 pm
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Post Re: Time to start Draft talk for 2016
I agree that we should address LT in the 1st round if Decker or Conklin are still there. 2nd round we might want to go back to the OL and try for a center that can anchor the line. 3rd round take a flyer on DE Shawn Oakman-Baylor, he's a lot like Ziggy. He is very raw but he's a beast! 6' 7" and 290something. I watched him jump up (from a standing position) onto a stack of exercise platforms(48" I think) with a 70 lb. weight in each hand. He needs to be coached just like Ziggy. After that they can just go wild.


March 21st, 2016, 6:54 pm
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Post Re: Time to start Draft talk for 2016
If Shaq Lawson is there for us at 16, we would be damn fools to take anyone else.


March 21st, 2016, 6:55 pm
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Post Re: Time to start Draft talk for 2016
Billy, your right but I doubt that he will still be there at 16.


March 21st, 2016, 7:07 pm
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Post Re: Time to start Draft talk for 2016
Food for thought as we approach d-day. I know many of us believe we need to add a DE from this draft.

Football Outsiders

05 Apr 2016
SackSEER 2016

by Nathan Forster

With the 2016 NFL draft quickly approaching, it is time for Football Outsiders' annual SackSEER projections. The SackSEER projections are based on a statistical analysis of the factors that best predict the pass rushing success of "edge rushers": 4-3 defensive ends and 3-4 outside linebackers. The projections are based on the college and professional numbers of the 369 edge rushers taken in the NFL draft from 1998 to 2014.

SackSEER has predicted success for current stars Von Miller, Khalil Mack, and Justin Houston, plus later-round sleepers such as Jared Allen. SackSEER has also identified several high-profile busts, including Dion Jordan, Marcus Smith, and Jarvis Jones. SackSEER has its fair share of misses as well (cough, JPP, cough), but it nevertheless provides a good starting point for discussing the likelihood that an edge-rusher prospect will collect a high number of sacks at the NFL level.

SackSEER expresses its thoughts on each drafted edge rusher through two outputs: SackSEER projection and SackSEER rating. SackSEER projection and SackSEER rating contain the following common elements:

An "explosion index" that measures the prospect's scores in the 40-yard dash, the vertical leap, and the broad jump in pre-draft workouts;
The prospect's score on the 3-cone drill;
A metric called "SRAM" which stands for "sack rate as modified." SRAM measures the prospect's per-game sack productivity, but with adjustments for factors such as early entry into the NFL draft and position switches during college;
The prospect's college passes defensed divided by college games played; and
The number of medical redshirts for which the player either received or was eligible.

SackSEER projection projects the number of regular season sacks that a prospect will record in his first five years in the NFL. Unlike SackSEER rating, SackSEER projection includes the prospect's projected draft round from NFLDraftScout.com.

SackSEER rating provides a historical percentile rating on the player's prospects for success as compared to the other prospects in SackSEER's database, irrespective of projected draft position. For instance, SackSEER currently has 369 edge rushers in its database, so a prospect in this year's draft who is stronger than 240 of those prospects on the historical trends identified by SackSEER would have a SackSEER rating of 65.0 percent (240/369). If you want to see how the prospects stack up based on SackSEER's trends alone, you can look at SackSEER rating. If you want to see how the prospects stack up based on SackSEER's trends when balanced against conventional wisdom -- accounting for the subjective aspects of a player that scouts can account for better than statistics -- you can look at SackSEER projection.

SackSEER rating also includes two additional factors that are not included in SackSEER Projection: weight and quality of competition, with a slight downward adjustment for players who hail from sub-FBS schools.

This year, SackSEER projects the edge rushers at the top of the NFL draft to be mostly mediocre, at least as compared to their highly-drafted brethren in past drafts. However, this draft does include a smattering of underrated edge rushers who will likely be available outside of the first round.

Leonard Floyd, Georgia

SackSEER Projection: 26.9 Sacks through Year 5
SackSEER Rating: 81.0%

Leonard Floyd's explosion numbers were fantastic. He recorded a 4.60-second 40-yard dash, a 39-inch vertical leap, and a broad jump of 10 feet, 7 inches -- numbers that place him among the top 20 most explosive edge-rusher prospects of all time. His college production, however, left something to be desired, as Floyd never had more than 6.5 sacks in a season for the Georgia Bulldogs. Moreover, Floyd had no interceptions and only four pass breakups, which leave him with a below-average passes defensed rate for a drafted edge-rusher prospect.

It would be easy to label Floyd as a "workout warrior," and dismiss his prospects. However, the actual history of such players reveals a more nuanced picture. It is true that many edge-rusher prospects who excelled at the combine after mediocre college production have become busts. Barkevious Mingo is a recent example of a player who looked like Jevon Kearse at the combine, but whose NFL career ultimately lacked sizzle. However, there are also counterexamples of edge rushers with good workouts and thin college resumes who nevertheless found NFL success, such as Trent Cole, Mark Anderson, and Michael Johnson. It all adds up to Floyd being a boom-or-bust prospect who is essentially a coin flip.

Joey Bosa, Ohio State

SackSEER Projection: 26.8 Sacks through Year 5
SackSEER Rating: 87.8%

SackSEER expects Joey Bosa to have a strong NFL career, but the system feels he is somewhat overrated as a possible No. 1 overall selection.

With 26 sacks in three years, Bosa had good production at Ohio State. Although Bosa's sack total dropped off in his junior season, it's not uncommon for a strong edge-rusher prospect to record fewer sacks after a successful year, due to increased double-teams. Bosa also had an impressive 6.89-second 3-cone time, which is the second-best among all of the edge rushers at this year's NFL combine.

However, Bosa's explosion numbers were a little below average: he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.86 seconds, had a vertical leap of 33 inches, and had a 10-foot broad jump. Edge rushers with those types of explosion numbers have certainly been successful before, but none have ever been drafted in the top five. It adds up to Bosa being a below-average "top-five prospect."
Edge Rushers Selected in Top 5 Picks, 1998-2016
Player Year Pick Team College SackSEER
Projection SackSEER
Rating
Khalil Mack 2014 5 OAK Buffalo 36.5 97.8%
Julius Peppers 2002 2 CAR North Carolina 36.2 99.7%
Von Miller 2011 2 DEN Texas A&M 35.2 98.1%
Mario Williams 2006 1 HOU N.C. State 34.1 100.0%
Gaines Adams 2007 4 TB Clemson 32.7 95.1%
Courtney Brown 2000 1 CLE Penn State 31.2 97.3%
Chris Long 2008 2 STL Virginia 30.2 92.9%
Jadeveon Clowney 2014 1 HOU South Carolina 29.1 94.0%
Ezekiel Ansah 2013 5 DET BYU 27.6 84.2%
Joey Bosa 2016 ??? ??? Ohio State 26.8 87.8%
Justin Smith 2001 4 CIN Missouri 25.5 85.1%
Andre Wadsworth 1998 3 ARI Florida State 24.1 88.6%
Dion Jordan 2013 3 MIA Oregon 23.0 32.3%
Dante Fowler 2015 3 JAC Florida 21.7 42.2%

The slowest edge rusher drafted in the top five since 1998 was Chris Long, who ran a 4.75 40-yard dash, which is a tenth of a second faster than Bosa's. Additionally, Bosa's passes defensed rate is firmly average for a drafted edge rusher; he is a far cry from players such as Julius Peppers or Ezekiel Ansah, who were as good at knocking down passes as they were at knocking down quarterbacks. Overall, SackSEER projects Bosa to be a solid, but not spectacular player.

Emmanuel Ogbah, Oklahoma State

SackSEER Projection: 25.6 Sacks through Year 5
SackSEER Rating: 97.3%

Emmanuel Ogbah is a good all-around prospect, and he would be SackSEER's favorite player in this draft if it did not adjust for projected draft position. Ogbah had consistently good production, recording double-digit sacks as both a sophomore and a junior. He also added nine passes defensed in his three-year college career, giving him an above-average passes defensed rate. Ogbah's explosion numbers were also good -- he recorded a 4.63-second 40-yard dash, a 35.5-inch vertical leap, and a 10-foot, 1-inch broad jump. Although not part of the SackSEER projection, Ogbah has nice size at 273 pounds, suggesting that he could be effective against the run and the pass. The only knock on Ogbah is his 3-cone time, which is just a bit slower than average.

Shaq Lawson, Clemson

SackSEER Projection: 22.9 Sacks through Year 5
SackSEER Rating: 72.6%

Shaq Lawson was one of the top defenders on the No. 2 ranked team in the country. However, SackSEER is only lukewarm on his prospects. Lawson is a bit of a one-hit wonder: he had 12.5 sacks in 15 games as a junior, but he had only 7.5 sacks in his first two seasons. Lawson also had only one pass defensed over the course of his career, which is a major red flag. Lawson did have a solid combine workout, however, which included a nice 10-foot broad jump.

Noah Spence, Eastern Kentucky

SackSEER Projection: 20.8 Sacks through Year 5
SackSEER Rating: 64.1%

Even though he hails from a much smaller school, SackSEER sees Noah Spence as a similar prospect to Shaq Lawson. Spence is a bit slower than Lawson and approximately 15 pounds lighter, but he bested Lawson in the vertical leap and the broad jump at the combine. Spence's sack production was also a little better -- Spence and Lawson each finished with 20 career sacks, but Spence collected his 20 sacks in six fewer games.

Shilique Calhoun, Michigan State

SackSEER Projection: 17.5 Sacks through Year 5
SackSEER Rating: 50.8%

Shilique Calhoun is almost a perfectly average prospect. His explosion numbers, sacks per game, and passes defensed rate are all very close to the average for a drafted edge rusher.

Bronson Kaufusi, Brigham Young

SackSEER Projection: 14.9 Sacks through Year 5
SackSEER Rating: 90.8%

SackSEER projects Bronson Kaufusi to out-produce his draft position, but he may not be everyone's cup of tea as a prospect. The primary driver of Kaufusi's relatively high SackSEER projection is his passes defensed total. Kaufusi finished with two interceptions and 14 pass breakups, which translates into a pass defensed every three games -- an impressive rate for a 280-pound defensive lineman. Kaufusi is also quick, demonstrated by his combine 3-cone drill time of 7.03 seconds. SackSEER does have one big knock on Kaufusi: he performed poorly in the explosion metrics. Kufusi's 40-yard dash, vertical leap, and broad jump were all well below average. That said, a team could do a lot worse with a late third-round pick than to pick up a big, productive defensive end with a talent for knocking down passes.

Charles Tapper, Oklahoma

SackSEER Projection: 14.3 Sacks through Year 5
SackSEER Rating: 69.6%

Charles Tapper is a good example of the limitations of SackSEER. SackSEER only measures performance in terms of sacks, and of course, edge rushers can be successful doing other things -- such as stopping the run or dropping into pass coverage. Tapper has good size, speed, and scheme flexibility. Tapper's SackSEER projection, however, is only ho-hum because he recorded only 13.5 sacks in 41 games as a collegian.

Kamalei Correa, Boise State

SackSEER Projection: 14.1 Sacks through Year 5
SackSEER Rating: 31.3%

SackSEER does not like Kamalei Correa. First, Correa had a poor passes defensed rate, recording only two passes defensed in 39 games. Second, Correa's combine was uneven. He recorded a slightly above-average 4.69-second 40-yard dash, but he a below-average 33-inch vertical leap and a fairly poor broad jump of just 9 feet. These numbers are especially concerning because Correa is small for the position at 243 pounds. Correa redeemed himself somewhat during his pro day, running the 3-cone for the first time and recording an impressive 6.96 seconds. Overall, however, Correa does not offer good value at the price of a low first-round or high second-round selection.

James Cowser, Southern Utah

SackSEER Projection: 12.8 Sacks through Year 5
SackSEER Rating: 84.2%

One of SackSEER's lessons is that small-school players are often severely underrated. Players such as Jared Allen and Robert Mathis dropped to the second half of the draft despite dominant college careers, largely due to concerns regarding the strength of their competition. In the 2016 NFL draft, the most likely edge rusher to enter the ranks of small-school prospect-turned-star is James Cowser. Cowser was dominant for Southern Utah. He made an immediate impact for the Thunderbirds, recording 7.5 sacks in 11 games as a freshman, and after that, recorded double-digit sacks in three consecutive years. Cowser's explosion index is on the low side, but he had the quickest 3-cone time of any edge rusher invited to the combine. Projected draft position suggests that it is still unlikely that Cowser will have an impact in the NFL. However, he has considerably more upside than any other edge rusher who is likely to be available after the third round.

What follows is a table that provides the SackSEER projections and ratings for each edge-rusher prospect who received an invitation to the NFL combine. The most notable entry on this list is Dean Lowry, whose SackSEER rating of 90.8% is quite good for a player who could easily go undrafted. Lowry is a similar prospect to Bronson Kaufusi -- he has tremendous size and a ton of passes defensed, but did not have consistent sack production.
Full 2016 SackSEER Projections
Player College Proj.
Round Explosion
Index SRAM PD/Rate 3-Cone SackSEER
Projection SackSEER

Rating

Leonard Floyd Georgia 1 1.74 0.49 0.11 7.18 26.9 81.0%
Joey Bosa Ohio State 1 0.01 0.61 0.17 6.89 26.8 87.8%
Emmanuel Ogbah Oklahoma State 1–2 0.98 0.74 0.23 7.26 25.6 97.3%
Shaq Lawson Clemson 1 0.52 0.54 0.02 7.16 22.9 72.6%
Noah Spence Eastern Kentucky 1–2 0.48 0.64 0.09 7.21 20.8 64.1%
Shilique Calhoun Michigan State 2 0.04 0.49 0.11 6.97 17.5 50.8%
Bronson Kaufusi BYU 3–4 -0.69 0.53 0.33 7.03 14.9 90.8%
Charles Tapper Oklahoma 2–3 0.73 0.26 0.14 7.18e 14.3 69.6%
Kamalei Correa Boise State 2–3 -0.13 0.52 0.05 6.96 14.1 31.3%
James Cowser Southern Utah 5–6 -0.43 0.84 0.20 6.80 12.8 84.2%
Carl Nassib Penn State 2–3 -0.63 0.46 0.12 7.27 12.3 47.0%
Jonathan Bullard Florida 2 -0.46 0.23 0.10 7.31 12.1 34.5%
Kevin Dodd Clemson 1–2 -0.68 0.20 0.00 7.32 11.9 9.0%
Jason Fanaika Utah 3–4 -0.30 0.31 0.21 7.06 11.3 57.1%
Eric Striker Oklahoma 4 -0.23 0.43 0.23 7.30 10.5 11.7%
Jordan Jenkins Georgia 3–4 0.61 0.37 0.10 7.39 10.0 25.8%
Dadi Nicolas Virginia Tech 5–6 0.87 0.35 0.17 7.04 9.4 46.7%
Shawn Oakman Baylor 3 -0.08 0.35 0.07 7.53 8.4 46.2%
Scooby Wright Arizona 4 -0.57 0.62 0.07 7.39e 7.6 9.0%
Matt Judon Grand Valley State 4 0.39 0.71 0.27 7.67 7.5 14.9%
Yannick Ngakoue Maryland 6 0.40 0.62 0.11 7.35 7.0 55.7%
Dean Lowry Northwestern 7–UDFA -0.31 0.26 0.41 7.26 6.6 90.8%
Alex McCalister Florida 7–UDFA 0.78 0.50 0.09 7.01 6.1 53.3%
Victor Ochi Stony Brook 6 -0.04 0.76 0.00 7.24 5.7 38.3%
Ron Thompson Syracuse UDFA -0.96 0.44 0.30 7.46 3.0 22.0%
Romeo Okwara Notre Dame 5 -0.01 0.29 0.02 7.38 3.0 17.7%
Drew Ott Iowa UDFA -0.41 0.52 0.12 7.37e 1.7 48.6%
D.J. Pettway Alabama 5–6 -1.35 0.22 0.14 7.74 0.0 1.6%
Jimmy Bean Oklahoma State UDFA -0.36 0.34 0.03 7.37e 0.0 15.2%
Branden Jackson Texas Tech UDFA -0.95 0.20 0.15 7.40 0.0 10.9%
Ronald Blair Appalachian State 4–5 -1.38 0.38 0.08 7.95 0.0 0.8%
e = estimated numbers (for players who have not recorded workout numbers)

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-a ... kseer-2016


April 11th, 2016, 8:51 pm
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Mr. Irrelevant

Joined: February 10th, 2005, 6:52 pm
Posts: 974
Location: Linden, MI
Post Re: Time to start Draft talk for 2016
Getting closer to the draft, I see things like this if I am choosing the players..

rd 1 in this order.. Elliot, Conklin, Lawson, Decker, Spriggs
rd 2 depends on what you took in 1. I wouldn't double up in back to back rds on an OT or RB or DE

in order. D. Henry, Ogbah, Kelly, Ifedei(sp.) best available DB

rd 3-7 BPA looking for a DT, S and more OT later like Beavers perhaps

Elliot is #1 because the quickest way to upgrade an offense is with a grade A tailback, this is the theme if it isn't obvious. The Lions need to be better at running the ball. Hence the OT and RB I list so early. You can't reach for the position, so if the right guys are gone like I think Conklin will be, you take the BPA at another spot of need like Lawson or Dodd perhaps.

_________________
OK. Schwartz is fired, the fans are happy, now what?


April 16th, 2016, 8:39 am
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