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 2006 NFL Draft order 
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phunnypharm wrote:
KEY GAMES ahead for the draft order......

Week 15

#1 Arizona at Houston
#2 Green Bay at Baltimore
#3 Cleveland at Oakland

Week 16

#1 Detroit at New Orleans
#2 Tennessee at Miami
#3 Philly at Arizona

Week 17

#1 Houston at San Fran
#2 Baltimore at cleveland
#3 Buffalo at New York Jets


you forgot the game tonite ATL vs. NO, and
next week other key games are:
DEN vs BUF
CAR vs NO
NYJ vs MIA


December 12th, 2005, 12:06 pm
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current order after MNF...

# Team W-L Opponents
W-L %

1 Houston
1-12 .547
2 San Francisco 2-10 .526
3 New York Jets 3-10 .519
4 New Orleans 3-10 .534
5 Green Bay 3-10 543
*6 Tennessee 4-9 .500
*7 Buffalo 4-9 .500
*8 Cleveland 4-9 .505
*9 Arizona 4-9 .505
10 Detroit 4-9 .514
11 Baltimore 4-9 .519
12 Oakland 4-9 .529
13 St. Louis 5-8 .486
14 Philadelphia 5-8 .534
15 Miami 6-7 .466
16 Denver (f/WAS)
7-6
.548
17 Minnesota 8-5 .486
*18 Atlanta 8-5 .495
*19 Pittsburgh 8-5 .495
20 Kansas City 8-5 .505
21 New England 8-5
.510
22 Dallas 8-5 .514
23 San Diego 8-5 .553
*24 Tampa Bay 9-4 452
*25 Chicago 9-4 .452
*26 Jacksonville 9-4 .466
*27 Carolina 9-4 .466
28 New York Giants 9-4 .495
29 Cincinnati 10-3 .457
30 Denver 10-3 .495
31 Seattle 11-2 .428
32 Indianapolis 13-0 .442


December 13th, 2005, 9:25 am
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Quote:
you forgot the game tonite ATL vs. NO, and
next week other key games are:



Didn't forget............I only wanted to include the games featuring 2 teams with poor records that would almost CERTAINLY have an impact on the top 10 draft order.

Atlanta was a must-win situation......didn't figure the Saints had a chance in hell, New Orleans, Baton Rouge, or San Antonio to win that game.

DEN vs. Buff? ditto.

CAR vs. N.O.? I think CAR might want some paybacks.

NYJ vs. MIA ..........could be "KEY"......but the Jets are just terrible and Miami is playing better each week.


December 13th, 2005, 10:53 am
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PERFECT SCENARIO.........or at least feasible......

Quote:
1 Houston 1-12 .547
2 San Francisco 2-10 .526
3 New York Jets 3-10 .519 ..........beat Dolphins week 15
4 New Orleans 3-10 .534 ............beat Lions week 16
5 Green Bay 3-10 543 ..........beat Baltimore week 15 (or Minny week 17!)
*6 Tennessee 4-9 .500 .........beat Miami week 16
*7 Buffalo 4-9 .500 .............beat Jets in week 17
*8 Cleveland 4-9 .505 .........beat Oakland week 15
*9 Arizona 4-9 .505 .............beat Philly or Houston
10 Detroit 4-9 .514 ...........LOSE LAST 3 GAMES
11 Baltimore 4-9 .519 ..........beat Cleveland week 17
12 Oakland 4-9 .529 ......if Lions lose out, doesn't matter



With that scenario.........and assuming the Jets SOS remains higher than the Lions......................................

we have the 3rd overall pick!


December 13th, 2005, 11:31 am
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phunnypharm wrote:
Quote:
you forgot the game tonite ATL vs. NO, and
next week other key games are:



Didn't forget............I only wanted to include the games featuring 2 teams with poor records that would almost CERTAINLY have an impact on the top 10 draft order.

Atlanta was a must-win situation......didn't figure the Saints had a chance in hell, New Orleans, Baton Rouge, or San Antonio to win that game.

DEN vs. Buff? ditto.

CAR vs. N.O.? I think CAR might want some paybacks.

NYJ vs. MIA ..........could be "KEY"......but the Jets are just terrible and Miami is playing better each week.


oh okay, well what i do before the games, is i place all 15 games ranked in order of IMPORTANCE not chance of the team winning, that way i can have a recipe for who i need to root for that will give us the best chances. last week, i was HOPING for 6-8/15 games to go our way, you know how many we actually won? it was either 4 or 5 only out of 15.


December 13th, 2005, 11:46 am
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Quote:
1 Houston 1-12 .547
2 San Francisco 2-10 .526
3 New York Jets 3-10 .519 ..........beat Dolphins week 15
4 New Orleans 3-10 .534 ............beat Lions week 16
5 Green Bay 3-10 543 ..........beat Baltimore week 15 (or Minny week 17!)
*6 Tennessee 4-9 .500 .........beat Miami week 16
*7 Buffalo 4-9 .500 .............beat Jets in week 17
*8 Cleveland 4-9 .505 .........beat Oakland week 15
*9 Arizona 4-9 .505 .............beat Philly or Houston
10 Detroit 4-9 .514 ...........LOSE LAST 3 GAMES
11 Baltimore 4-9 .519 ..........beat Cleveland week 17
12 Oakland 4-9 .529 ......if Lions lose out, doesn't matter




With that scenario.........and assuming the Jets SOS remains higher than the Lions......................................

we have the 3rd overall pick!



I had given up on catching the 49ers...........but if they could somehow surprise the Jags in Jacksonville or the Rams at St. Louis...........they HOST the Texans in the last week.

With 2 more wins..............they have 4 on the season.......and their SOS is HIGHER than the Lions..............

which in this PERFECT scenario could land us as high as #2 overall!


I don't expect it.......but wow would that be a nice Christmas present.


December 16th, 2005, 10:35 am
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phunnypharm wrote:
Quote:
1 Houston 1-12 .547
2 San Francisco 2-10 .526
3 New York Jets 3-10 .519 ..........beat Dolphins week 15
4 New Orleans 3-10 .534 ............beat Lions week 16
5 Green Bay 3-10 543 ..........beat Baltimore week 15 (or Minny week 17!)
*6 Tennessee 4-9 .500 .........beat Miami week 16
*7 Buffalo 4-9 .500 .............beat Jets in week 17
*8 Cleveland 4-9 .505 .........beat Oakland week 15
*9 Arizona 4-9 .505 .............beat Philly or Houston
10 Detroit 4-9 .514 ...........LOSE LAST 3 GAMES
11 Baltimore 4-9 .519 ..........beat Cleveland week 17
12 Oakland 4-9 .529 ......if Lions lose out, doesn't matter

exactly what i was thinking, cause STL and SF, STL has a backup QB, and there is a reasonable chance that SF could pull of a win. HOU should be a VERY good shot too, i almost have that one a guarantee! LOL. So they have 2 SHOTS at an upset, and i like those chances, we just need to hope SF gets a lucky Def TD in one game that gives them a slight edge.

If the Lions lose all 3, they should be guaranteed by my calculations to be 2-8, with most likely being 4-5 in my opinion. THe 1 is about 10,000-1 to happen now, i've calculated it out! lol

if we got the 2, which is very possible, i would pray that HOU takes D'brickashaw as some people are projecting, and then the LIONS could take Bush and trade off Kevin Jones for whatever highest pick they could get. then with our high 2nd round and let's say very low 1st rounder, i would take 2 offensive lineman to build around bush, or possibly take an OL and QB depending who's on the board.




With that scenario.........and assuming the Jets SOS remains higher than the Lions......................................

we have the 3rd overall pick!



I had given up on catching the 49ers...........but if they could somehow surprise the Jags in Jacksonville or the Rams at St. Louis...........they HOST the Texans in the last week.

With 2 more wins..............they have 4 on the season.......and their SOS is HIGHER than the Lions..............

which in this PERFECT scenario could land us as high as #2 overall!


I don't expect it.......but wow would that be a nice Christmas present.


December 16th, 2005, 11:18 am
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phunnypharm wrote:
PERFECT SCENARIO.........or at least feasible......

Quote:
1 Houston 1-12 .547
2 San Francisco 2-10 .526
3 New York Jets 3-10 .519 ..........beat Dolphins week 15
4 New Orleans 3-10 .534 ............beat Lions week 16
5 Green Bay 3-10 543 ..........beat Baltimore week 15 (or Minny week 17!)
*6 Tennessee 4-9 .500 .........beat Miami week 16
*7 Buffalo 4-9 .500 .............beat Jets in week 17
*8 Cleveland 4-9 .505 .........beat Oakland week 15
*9 Arizona 4-9 .505 .............beat Philly or Houston
10 Detroit 4-9 .514 ...........LOSE LAST 3 GAMES
11 Baltimore 4-9 .519 ..........beat Cleveland week 17
12 Oakland 4-9 .529 ......if Lions lose out, doesn't matter



With that scenario.........and assuming the Jets SOS remains higher than the Lions......................................

we have the 3rd overall pick!


another thing that bodes well for us is that the last 2 weeks we were forced to lose to a division team, which means it double counts against our SOS. we dont have any more division games and most of the teams in the cellar with us do have those matchups, so i think ARI is the only 4 win team without a division matchup, so we should have better odds to rise against the other teams SOS. plus we have good teams playing CHI/MIN/GB for the most part, that they will beat on them and give us a wickedly low SOS over the next 3 weeks, is what i think will happen. Either way, those 2 games this week against CHI and MIN are HUGE, trust me we need BOTH of those to happen, it would be a MAJOR Impact!


December 16th, 2005, 11:22 am
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phunnypharm wrote:
Quote:
1 Houston 1-12 .547
2 San Francisco 2-10 .526
3 New York Jets 3-10 .519 ..........beat Dolphins week 15
4 New Orleans 3-10 .534 ............beat Lions week 16
5 Green Bay 3-10 543 ..........beat Baltimore week 15 (or Minny week 17!)
*6 Tennessee 4-9 .500 .........beat Miami week 16
*7 Buffalo 4-9 .500 .............beat Jets in week 17
*8 Cleveland 4-9 .505 .........beat Oakland week 15
*9 Arizona 4-9 .505 .............beat Philly or Houston
10 Detroit 4-9 .514 ...........LOSE LAST 3 GAMES
11 Baltimore 4-9 .519 ..........beat Cleveland week 17
12 Oakland 4-9 .529 ......if Lions lose out, doesn't matter




With that scenario.........and assuming the Jets SOS remains higher than the Lions......................................

we have the 3rd overall pick!



I had given up on catching the 49ers...........but if they could somehow surprise the Jags in Jacksonville or the Rams at St. Louis...........they HOST the Texans in the last week.

With 2 more wins..............they have 4 on the season.......and their SOS is HIGHER than the Lions..............

which in this PERFECT scenario could land us as high as #2 overall!


I don't expect it.......but wow would that be a nice Christmas present.


and lastly, it is a tough call to root for GB over BAL, because it hurts doulbe against our SOS, but to have GB move below us for sure is of slightly more value. to be ahead of them and get 1 pick higher because of it, i think we can take the SOS hit. if we could know 100% for a fact that GB was going to beat MIN, then we would want them to lose, but since we dont know, we have to go with GB now, they must get a 4th win somewhere!


December 16th, 2005, 11:25 am
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Quote:
#2 San Francisco 2-10 .526 ..........beat JAX or St. Louis + Houston
#3 New York Jets 3-10 .519 ..........beat Dolphins week 15
#4 New Orleans 3-10 .534 ............beat Lions week 16
#5 Green Bay 3-10 543 ..........beat Baltimore week 15 (or Minny week 17!)
#6 Tennessee 4-9 .500 .........beat Miami week 16
#7 Buffalo 4-9 .500 .............beat Jets in week 17
#8 Cleveland 4-9 .505 .........beat Oakland week 15
#9 Arizona 4-9 .505 .............beat Philly or Houston


CRAP!

Arizona, Tennessee, NY Jets, and San Fran all lost.

And they were so close!


December 18th, 2005, 6:33 pm
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phunnypharm wrote:
Quote:
#2 San Francisco 2-10 .526 ..........beat JAX or St. Louis + Houston
#3 New York Jets 3-10 .519 ..........beat Dolphins week 15
#4 New Orleans 3-10 .534 ............beat Lions week 16
#5 Green Bay 3-10 543 ..........beat Baltimore week 15 (or Minny week 17!)
#6 Tennessee 4-9 .500 .........beat Miami week 16
#7 Buffalo 4-9 .500 .............beat Jets in week 17
#8 Cleveland 4-9 .505 .........beat Oakland week 15
#9 Arizona 4-9 .505 .............beat Philly or Houston


CRAP!

Arizona, Tennessee, NY Jets, and San Fran all lost.

And they were so close!


we got screwed good today, oh well, maybe the browns can do something for us, and if GB wins thats another spot, we are going to have a hard time winning some of those tiebreakers now, we'll just have to have stronger prayers for next week's games.


December 18th, 2005, 7:05 pm
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Really...the Lions may force the NFL to rethink the way draft order is determined...if it went by win % over the previous years included we would be a lock for 1 and 2 year in and year out :lol: :? :cry:

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December 18th, 2005, 9:30 pm
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Why is everyone so geared at the Lions moving up in the draft order to get a higher pick? We've gotten four in the past four years, and where has it gotten us? Is it the idea of trading the pick and moving down? That would be nice if Millen actually would trade down and get extra picks. He has been negligent in that respect.

So why concern yourself over getting a higher pick in 2006?

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December 18th, 2005, 9:53 pm
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m2karateman wrote:
Why is everyone so geared at the Lions moving up in the draft order to get a higher pick? We've gotten four in the past four years, and where has it gotten us? Is it the idea of trading the pick and moving down? That would be nice if Millen actually would trade down and get extra picks. He has been negligent in that respect.

So why concern yourself over getting a higher pick in 2006?


because there is nothign else to root for this year for the lions BUT that!

also, just because our history has panned out on what we would like the picks to have translated to or how we have used them, the BOTTOM line is that there is a higher value to owning those picks for purposes of selecting a better player as dictated by the mathematical and logical laws of probability or for trading. and just because we havent traded down doest mean that wont this year, it can happen at any time, so if it DOES happen then rather it be a higher pick to get more value and stay as high as possible. if it doesnt hapeen that a trade goes thru then no harm no foul, just a better pick.

besides we traded down 2 years ago when we took Roy W to get an extra pick.


December 18th, 2005, 10:02 pm
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bigscottyz wrote:
because there is nothign else to root for this year for the lions BUT that!

I can certainly agree with this. As one person put it, the draft is the Super Bowl for the Lions.

bigscottyz wrote:
also, just because our history has panned out on what we would like the picks to have translated to or how we have used them, the BOTTOM line is that there is a higher value to owning those picks for purposes of selecting a better player as dictated by the mathematical and logical laws of probability or for trading. and just because we havent traded down doest mean that wont this year, it can happen at any time, so if it DOES happen then rather it be a higher pick to get more value and stay as high as possible. if it doesnt hapeen that a trade goes thru then no harm no foul, just a better pick.

besides we traded down 2 years ago when we took Roy W to get an extra pick.


One trade in four, and it happened only because Butch Davis was a moron. We can all be thankful that he was.

I like the idea of trying to project what will take place in the draft, including trades. But as the Lions have so often proved, a high pick does not ensure success. And having a lower pick will more easily allow for willing trade partners to move down. We may not get as much value, but we have a better chance of getting something other than a bust.

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December 18th, 2005, 10:25 pm
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