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 2006 NFL Draft order 
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m2karateman wrote:
bigscottyz wrote:
because there is nothign else to root for this year for the lions BUT that!

We may not get as much value, but we have a better chance of getting something other than a bust.


you couldn't have it more backwards, its far more likely that a player will bust at a lower pick than a higher one.


December 18th, 2005, 10:45 pm
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bigscottyz wrote:
m2karateman wrote:
bigscottyz wrote:
because there is nothign else to root for this year for the lions BUT that!

We may not get as much value, but we have a better chance of getting something other than a bust.


you couldn't have it more backwards, its far more likely that a player will bust at a lower pick than a higher one.


Maybe true, clearly you have a lesser chance of a bust with a higher pick, although busts from higher picks cost you far more in cap space then a lower pick does, especially when you start dealing with top 10 picks.

Its really a balance, sure you have the pick of the litter with a higher pick and logically the chance of a bust should be lower, but you have to balance that with the fact a top 10 bust will cost alot more in cap space.

I for one would noramlly like to have a #20 overall and a extra 3rd, then a #3 overall pick.


December 18th, 2005, 11:03 pm
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HunterMSU wrote:
bigscottyz wrote:
m2karateman wrote:
bigscottyz wrote:
because there is nothign else to root for this year for the lions BUT that!

We may not get as much value, but we have a better chance of getting something other than a bust.


you couldn't have it more backwards, its far more likely that a player will bust at a lower pick than a higher one.




I for one would noramlly like to have a #20 overall and a extra 3rd, then a #3 overall pick.


thats insane. if you had a number 3 overall pick, you could trade it for a number 20, and extra 3, and MORE. so if approaching the time of the draft, if you are in a cap situation that has concerns, naturally you can trade down, but MOST teams arent in a screwed up cap position to afford a #3 pick, but either way, having ownership of that high profile pick is a bigger benefit becaues you have options no matter where you want to pick.

also, sure there is a more high profile to the bust if he's higher rated, but bigger risks come with bigger rewards in anything in life, and when you're a struggling team, the last thing you need is to be conservative. we need a BIG payoff and we are MORE likely to get that with a PREMIUM player than a crop of 2nd rounderes that may or may not develop in time.


December 18th, 2005, 11:07 pm
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bigscottyz wrote:
m2karateman wrote:
bigscottyz wrote:
because there is nothign else to root for this year for the lions BUT that!

We may not get as much value, but we have a better chance of getting something other than a bust.


you couldn't have it more backwards, its far more likely that a player will bust at a lower pick than a higher one.


Typically the label "bust" is reserved for players taken in the top 10 of the draft, not below that. At least, not on a national level. AND, in moving down, we would get extra picks, likely first day picks, that would add for our chance of success in getting a contributor if not a star.

While the Pro Bowl may be filled with first and second rounders, we all know most of those players really don't deserve to be there, but are selected to go there as the result of a popularity contest rather than having had a true Pro Bowl year.
bigscottyz wrote:
thats insane. if you had a number 3 overall pick, you could trade it for a number 20, and extra 3, and MORE. so if approaching the time of the draft, if you are in a cap situation that has concerns, naturally you can trade down, but MOST teams arent in a screwed up cap position to afford a #3 pick, but either way, having ownership of that high profile pick is a bigger benefit becaues you have options no matter where you want to pick.

also, sure there is a more high profile to the bust if he's higher rated, but bigger risks come with bigger rewards in anything in life, and when you're a struggling team, the last thing you need is to be conservative. we need a BIG payoff and we are MORE likely to get that with a PREMIUM player than a crop of 2nd rounderes that may or may not develop in time.


Trade values of a pick are not an absolute. While I agree that typically trading down from number three to number 20 overall will garner you much more than just a third round selection, there is no guarantee of that.

When the Lions made the trade with Cleveland in 2004, they were able to wrest the second rounder from Butch because of several factors. Butch wanted Winslow because of their Miami U. connection. Also, Millen had Jacksonville on the other line wanting to give up a third rounder to move up from the ninth spot to get Roy. Matt was able to use that leverage, because there was no guarantee that Jax was going to take Roy, they could have taken KW2. Butch wanted to ensure he was getting his guy, and gave up more than he should have. In order to get the greatest value out of a first round trade, a player has to be there that multiple teams are seeking in a big way. I have no doubt that Millen could have traded down every year in the past four years, but chose not to three times. Perhaps the other teams weren't willing to meet his price. Perhaps his price was too steep. Who knows? But teams don't trade up for picks, they trade up for players. There are only two players this year that have separated themselves from the pack, Bush and Leinhart. There really aren't any other 'sure fire' players. As a result, the teams with the top two picks will see a great deal of interest, and the price will be high. Look what the Giants gave up just to get Eli.

The Lions have taken their shots at getting the PREMIUM players, and have failed thus far. Roy is the only one starting. However, we have plenty of second and third rounders playing and performing well. Kalimba, Big Baby, Cory Redding, Shaun Cody, Boss Bailey (until his injury) were all second or third round players that contribute. We even have undrafted players (Drummond, Fitzsimmons, Hall) that are doing better than most of our first round talent.

It is my understanding that in last years draft, the teams in the top of the draft order got very little 'real' interest in their picks. I would have thought differently with all the teams having two first round selections. But no trade was made until pick 13. Although that is not a typical scenario in the draft, perhaps GMs are becoming more weary of dumping over half of their rookie cap allocation onto a single high profile player that has proven nothing.

As I said, teams trade up to get players, not picks.

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December 18th, 2005, 11:58 pm
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Week 16

#1 Detroit at New Orleans
#2 Tennessee at Miami
#3 Philly at Arizona
#4 San Fran at St. Louis
#5 Jacksonville at Houston

really long shots.........
#6 Buffalo at Cinci
#7 Chicago at Green Bay
#8 New England at NY Jets

Week 17

#1 Houston at San Fran .......winner would have to also have to win in week 16 to matter
#2 Baltimore at Cleveland ........meaningless? both have 5 wins now + SOS higher
#3 Buffalo at New York Jets.........if Lions lose out, winner definitely drops behind us in draft order.
#4 Tennessee at Jacksonville

longer shots......
#5 Seattle at Green Bay
#6 Arizona at Indy
#7 New Orleans at Tampa Bay (no real implications since Lions' game against N.O. will determine IF we are before or after them)


The bottom line:

If we lose our last 2 games, we have the #7 pick or higher.

Also.......SOS will be HUGE.
There are currently 4 teams separated by 0.05%.........which can be changd over the last 2 weeks.

Arizona 0.504
Buffalo 0.504
Tennessee 0.509
Detroit 0.509


December 20th, 2005, 10:08 am
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phunnypharm wrote:
Week 16

#1 Detroit at New Orleans
#2 Tennessee at Miami
#3 Philly at Arizona
#4 San Fran at St. Louis
#5 Jacksonville at Houston

really long shots.........
#6 Buffalo at Cinci
#7 Chicago at Green Bay
#8 New England at NY Jets

Week 17

#1 Houston at San Fran .......winner would have to also have to win in week 16 to matter
#2 Baltimore at Cleveland ........meaningless? both have 5 wins now + SOS higher
#3 Buffalo at New York Jets.........if Lions lose out, winner definitely drops behind us in draft order.
#4 Tennessee at Jacksonville

longer shots......
#5 Seattle at Green Bay
#6 Arizona at Indy
#7 New Orleans at Tampa Bay (no real implications since Lions' game against N.O. will determine IF we are before or after them)


The bottom line:

If we lose our last 2 games, we have the #7 pick or higher.

Also.......SOS will be HUGE.
There are currently 4 teams separated by 0.05%.........which can be changd over the last 2 weeks.

Arizona 0.504
Buffalo 0.504
Tennessee 0.509
Detroit 0.509


actually it's possible for us to have the 9th pick even if we lose two games, the SOS can work against us possibly.

If we lose both we will most likely be around 6-7 i think. but it is possible to be anywhere from 2-9.

if we win the saints game...we would likely be around 12.


December 20th, 2005, 10:44 am
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Quote:
actually it's possible for us to have the 9th pick even if we lose two games, the SOS can work against us possibly.

If we lose both we will most likely be around 6-7 i think. but it is possible to be anywhere from 2-9.



I am basing my #7 at lowest (with 2 losses) on the following.

Currently.......we are either #8 or #9 selection (coin flip would be needed if season ended to day).

#1.......New Orleans beating us gives them 4 wins (same as Lions). Their SOS is currently .522 and the Lions is .509............which means it is EXTREMELY unlikely that the Saints SOS will be lower than the Lions.

The Saints and Lions have 6 common opponents.......which are the teams in the NFC South and NFC north. Chi plays Minny, ATL plays Tampa + Carolina, and N.O. plays Tampa.........so they really aren't going to gain any ground on the SOS unless something really bizarre happens.


Therefore, the Saints would be 1 team that moves behind us.




#2.......Buffalo plays the Jets.

If Buffalo wins, they would have 5 wins........and move behind the Lions.
If NY Jets win, they have 4 wins and a SOS of .522 also.........making it very unlikely for them to pick ahead of Detroit also.

Jets and Lions also have 5 common opponents on their schedules......which also reduces the chance that the SOS will vary significantly.


^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Tht means that there are at least 2 teams currently picking before the Lions who will ultimately end up picking later than the Lions.......practically guaranteed.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^


December 20th, 2005, 7:10 pm
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phunnypharm wrote:
Quote:
actually it's possible for us to have the 9th pick even if we lose two games, the SOS can work against us possibly.

If we lose both we will most likely be around 6-7 i think. but it is possible to be anywhere from 2-9.



I am basing my #7 at lowest (with 2 losses) on the following.

Currently.......we are either #8 or #9 selection (coin flip would be needed if season ended to day).

#1.......New Orleans beating us gives them 4 wins (same as Lions). Their SOS is currently .522 and the Lions is .509............which means it is EXTREMELY unlikely that the Saints SOS will be lower than the Lions.

The Saints and Lions have 6 common opponents.......which are the teams in the NFC South and NFC north. Chi plays Minny, ATL plays Tampa + Carolina, and N.O. plays Tampa.........so they really aren't going to gain any ground on the SOS unless something really bizarre happens.


Therefore, the Saints would be 1 team that moves behind us.




#2.......Buffalo plays the Jets.

If Buffalo wins, they would have 5 wins........and move behind the Lions.
If NY Jets win, they have 4 wins and a SOS of .522 also.........making it very unlikely for them to pick ahead of Detroit also.

Jets and Lions also have 5 common opponents on their schedules......which also reduces the chance that the SOS will vary significantly.


^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Tht means that there are at least 2 teams currently picking before the Lions who will ultimately end up picking later than the Lions.......practically guaranteed.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^


you are correct sir, good job, i havent gotten that far ahead, agreed 7 sounds like the lowest if we lose both.


December 20th, 2005, 10:32 pm
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