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 Lion's Draft Status and SOS breakdown 
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Post Lion's Draft Status and SOS breakdown
http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/featur ... order.html

currently we are in the 10th spot, here is a list of all the games this weekend and how the Lions want them to go down for best results:

(1st group - teams that we need to get more wins to go behind us)



SF over JAX
NYJ over MIA
NO over CAR
ARZ over HOU
BUF over DEN
TEN over SEA
CLE over OAK
GB over BAL

(2nd group - lowers our SOS by having division opponents lose)
PIT over MIN
ATL over CHI

(3rd group - lowers our SOS by having our other opponents lose)
NE over TB
WAS over DAL

(4th group - raises SOS of the top teams we are in competiton with)
IND over SD
STL over PHI
KC ovr NYG


December 14th, 2005, 9:49 pm
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Scott Wright's order is incorrect, with just about everything that comes out of his mouth that is his actual opinion, not what he copies from Mel Kiper. He doesn't have the correct strength of schedule.


December 14th, 2005, 10:54 pm
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Brian wrote:
Scott Wright's order is incorrect, with just about everything that comes out of his mouth that is his actual opinion, not what he copies from Mel Kiper. He doesn't have the correct strength of schedule.


i have double checked his order, and it is correct, i wouldnt post it if i didnt know it to be true, why would you say such a thing, and what is it you have against him that you are calling his ranking incorrect? just because you don't personally care for the guy doesn't mean he doesnt know how to calculate a very simple thing. let me break it down very clearly for you cause maybe you dont understand how the SOS works.

It goes by the sum of ALL opponents records that a team has played, and division games are DOUBLE counted since they play twice per year.

for example, notice on his sheet that TEN has a .500 score. If you add up all 16 opponents and their win/loss column you will see that those teams total 104/104 for a .500 score.


December 14th, 2005, 11:39 pm
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bigscottyz wrote:
i have double checked his order, and it is correct, i wouldnt post it if i didnt know it to be true, why would you say such a thing, and what is it you have against him that you are calling his ranking incorrect? just because you don't personally care for the guy doesn't mean he doesnt know how to calculate a very simple thing. let me break it down very clearly for you cause maybe you dont understand how the SOS works.

It goes by the sum of ALL opponents records that a team has played, and division games are DOUBLE counted since they play twice per year.

for example, notice on his sheet that TEN has a .500 score. If you add up all 16 opponents and their win/loss column you will see that those teams total 104/104 for a .500 score.


It's different than what a computer calculated order is, which I trust computers when it comes to math compared to someone who can't do their own work.

If he can't calculate his own player rankings, how am I supposed to believe he can calculate draft order correctly?

I don't have the time to do the calculations, but i'm trusting the computers. CBS Sportline's order has been correct for years.


December 15th, 2005, 3:36 pm
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Brian wrote:
bigscottyz wrote:
i have double checked his order, and it is correct, i wouldnt post it if i didnt know it to be true, why would you say such a thing, and what is it you have against him that you are calling his ranking incorrect? just because you don't personally care for the guy doesn't mean he doesnt know how to calculate a very simple thing. let me break it down very clearly for you cause maybe you dont understand how the SOS works.

It goes by the sum of ALL opponents records that a team has played, and division games are DOUBLE counted since they play twice per year.

for example, notice on his sheet that TEN has a .500 score. If you add up all 16 opponents and their win/loss column you will see that those teams total 104/104 for a .500 score.


It's different than what a computer calculated order is, which I trust computers when it comes to math compared to someone who can't do their own work.

If he can't calculate his own player rankings, how am I supposed to believe he can calculate draft order correctly?

I don't have the time to do the calculations, but i'm trusting the computers. CBS Sportline's order has been correct for years.


ok here's where the problem is, computers are correct in calculating in both his ranking and their ranking, hte problem is the formula that sportsline is using is incorrect. they are only calculated the SOS on the teams that have played, wheres Scott Wright does it the correct way and calculates games played of all teams on schedule. for example, the score of SOS for DET on sportsline is not counting the records of 3 teams, the CIN, PIT and NO, cause the games havent happened yet, which is the WRONG way to get an accurate read on the score. the people at sportsline are incredibly friggin stupid and i have seen it time and tiem again on their website, they cant even update and maintain teams' rosters correctly!! lol


December 15th, 2005, 3:51 pm
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bigscottyz wrote:
they are only calculated the SOS on the teams that have played, wheres Scott Wright does it the correct way and calculates games played of all teams on schedule. for example, the score of SOS for DET on sportsline is not counting the records of 3 teams, the CIN, PIT and NO, cause the games havent happened yet, which is the WRONG way to get an accurate read on the score.


How is that the wrong way? They haven't played the games, so don't count them.


December 15th, 2005, 3:53 pm
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Brian wrote:
bigscottyz wrote:
they are only calculated the SOS on the teams that have played, wheres Scott Wright does it the correct way and calculates games played of all teams on schedule. for example, the score of SOS for DET on sportsline is not counting the records of 3 teams, the CIN, PIT and NO, cause the games havent happened yet, which is the WRONG way to get an accurate read on the score.


How is that the wrong way? They haven't played the games, so don't count them.


because the games being played are INEVITABLE. too not count them, does not give anywhere near a correct answer. and its not a MAYBE that they will play the teams, it is automatic. since the draft order will be determined by SOS of all 16 teams all 16 games each, there is no reason to not include all 16 teams in the rankings to get closest to what the actual number CURRENTLY is, because over the last 3 games, it cant change that much except on what all the teams do, but to add them in as a surprise once per week completely generates a retarded random number every time that has no truth or value in being correct.


December 15th, 2005, 4:11 pm
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Joined: October 13th, 2005, 10:34 am
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Quote:
ok here's where the problem is, computers are correct in calculating in both his ranking and their ranking, hte problem is the formula that sportsline is using is incorrect. they are only calculated the SOS on the teams that have played, wheres Scott Wright does it the correct way and calculates games played of all teams on schedule. for example, the score of SOS for DET on sportsline is not counting the records of 3 teams, the CIN, PIT and NO, cause the games havent happened yet, which is the WRONG way to get an accurate read on the score.



I agree that it is much more accurate to count the records of ALL 16 teams on the schedule

The SOS may change a decent amount in the last 3 weeks even using all 16 games........but it can change GREATLY if only the first 13 opponents are considered.


December 16th, 2005, 10:12 am
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Quote:
(2nd group - lowers our SOS by having division opponents lose)
PIT over MIN
ATL over CHI


I agree......these COULD be very important games for the draft order.

Ravens, Jets, Browns, and Cardinals are all pretty close in SOS % to the Lions with a difference of 0.09% or less.


December 16th, 2005, 10:31 am
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phunnypharm wrote:
Quote:
ok here's where the problem is, computers are correct in calculating in both his ranking and their ranking, hte problem is the formula that sportsline is using is incorrect. they are only calculated the SOS on the teams that have played, wheres Scott Wright does it the correct way and calculates games played of all teams on schedule. for example, the score of SOS for DET on sportsline is not counting the records of 3 teams, the CIN, PIT and NO, cause the games havent happened yet, which is the WRONG way to get an accurate read on the score.



I agree that it is much more accurate to count the records of ALL 16 teams on the schedule

The SOS may change a decent amount in the last 3 weeks even using all 16 games........but it can change GREATLY if only the first 13 opponents are considered.


here's one of my favorite draft sites, they do a REALLY good job here, because make note of the caption under the title, now that's class and precision, A+ job by them getting it exactly right and making it clear!

bookmark this site for draft time:

http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.htm


December 16th, 2005, 11:13 am
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bigscottyz wrote:
because the games being played are INEVITABLE. too not count them, does not give anywhere near a correct answer. and its not a MAYBE that they will play the teams, it is automatic. since the draft order will be determined by SOS of all 16 teams all 16 games each, there is no reason to not include all 16 teams in the rankings to get closest to what the actual number CURRENTLY is, because over the last 3 games, it cant change that much except on what all the teams do, but to add them in as a surprise once per week completely generates a retarded random number every time that has no truth or value in being correct.


But in essence, aren't all the numbers incorrect at this point in time?

Therefore, why complain on 3 separate threads about the draft order, if it's obsolete?


December 16th, 2005, 8:42 pm
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Brian wrote:
bigscottyz wrote:
because the games being played are INEVITABLE. too not count them, does not give anywhere near a correct answer. and its not a MAYBE that they will play the teams, it is automatic. since the draft order will be determined by SOS of all 16 teams all 16 games each, there is no reason to not include all 16 teams in the rankings to get closest to what the actual number CURRENTLY is, because over the last 3 games, it cant change that much except on what all the teams do, but to add them in as a surprise once per week completely generates a retarded random number every time that has no truth or value in being correct.


But in essence, aren't all the numbers incorrect at this point in time?

Therefore, why complain on 3 separate threads about the draft order, if it's obsolete?


no they are all currently correct in the draft countdown website. because the only thing that matters is ALL games by ALL teams on schedule which is measurable. the only thing that isnt determined is 3 out of 16 games for each team on the schedule which is a total of 48 games.

the sportsline sample now, they are off by the same 48 games but they are also off by an additional 3 teams times 13 games for 39 more. so all that has happened this year is 16 times 13 games for a total of 208 games, that go towards the final total, but sportsline foolishly only recognizes 169 games for some bizarre stupid reason. since those other 39 games are part of the final formula, and those answers and verdicts are already in, there's NO reason not to i nclude it to get the MOST accurate number of what the SOS looks liek that is currently available.


December 17th, 2005, 2:39 am
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Joined: October 13th, 2005, 10:34 am
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Quote:
Therefore, why complain on 3 separate threads about the draft order, if it's obsolete?


Why continue to put up a fight about it when he has proven that the Sportsline order has a much larger margin of error?

He may be looking for you to say......"oh, I was mistaken.......the order you posted is the correct one."




Quote:
Well, there was a game played before Pablo posted last night, and that did change the percentages. It was right before the game was played, so it was never really "wrong".


Quote:
How is that the wrong way? They haven't played the games, so don't count them.


Quote:
I don't have the time to do the calculations, but i'm trusting the computers. CBS Sportline's order has been correct for years.



You have admitted that you haven't taken the time to do the calculations yourself. Bigscottyz actually tested the calculations himself.....and used to the MORE ACCURATE (less variance will occur over the last 3 weeks) way of doing that...........but you still have told him you don't believe he has it right.


Just own up and apoolgize.........and I'm sure he'll take a different angle of approach as well.


December 17th, 2005, 10:55 am
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Joined: October 13th, 2005, 10:34 am
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Quote:
the sportsline sample now, they are off by the same 48 games but they are also off by an additional 3 teams times 13 games for 39 more. so all that has happened this year is 16 times 13 games for a total of 208 games, that go towards the final total, but sportsline foolishly only recognizes 169 games for some bizarre stupid reason. since those other 39 games are part of the final formula, and those answers and verdicts are already in, there's NO reason not to i nclude it to get the MOST accurate number of what the SOS looks liek that is currently available.


In simplified mathematical terms............that means............


CBS has only counted about 66% (169/256) of the games on the NFL season.

The "other" way has calculated 81% (208/256) of the NFL schedule.



Also.............21 out of 48 remaining NFL games match divisional opponents.

As Bigscottyz has already pointed out........those games count DOUBLE to that PARTICULAR TEAM's S.O.S. rating because they play each other twice each year.


The Bottom Line:

The SOS may change between now and the end of the year. But the calculations that already include the records of the last 3 opponents are much less likely to change SIGNIFICANTLY.


December 17th, 2005, 11:05 am
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phunnypharm wrote:
Quote:
the sportsline sample now, they are off by the same 48 games but they are also off by an additional 3 teams times 13 games for 39 more. so all that has happened this year is 16 times 13 games for a total of 208 games, that go towards the final total, but sportsline foolishly only recognizes 169 games for some bizarre stupid reason. since those other 39 games are part of the final formula, and those answers and verdicts are already in, there's NO reason not to i nclude it to get the MOST accurate number of what the SOS looks liek that is currently available.


In simplified mathematical terms............that means............


CBS has only counted about 66% (169/256) of the games on the NFL season.

well said, not bad for a "red shirt freshman", you are more than meets the eye, hmm, where do i know that slogan from?? ahh yes, Transformers! lol

The "other" way has calculated 81% (208/256) of the NFL schedule.



Also.............21 out of 48 remaining NFL games match divisional opponents.

As Bigscottyz has already pointed out........those games count DOUBLE to that PARTICULAR TEAM's S.O.S. rating because they play each other twice each year.


The Bottom Line:

The SOS may change between now and the end of the year. But the calculations that already include the records of the last 3 opponents are much less likely to change SIGNIFICANTLY.


December 17th, 2005, 12:05 pm
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