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 Lion's Draft Status - WEEK 16 
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Post Lion's Draft Status - WEEK 16
1 Houston 2-12 .531
2 San Francisco 2-12 .545
3 New York Jets 3-11 .522
4 New Orleans 3-11 .522
5 Green Bay 3-11 .545
6* Arizona 4-10 .504
*7 Buffalo 4-10 .504
*8 Tennessee 4-10 .509
*9 Detroit 4-10 .509
10 Oakland 4-10 .536
11 St. Louis 5-9 .482
12 Cleveland 5-9 .513
13 Baltimore 5-9 .527

Here is the breakdown of games we need to root for:

(for minor SOS over BUF and chance if HOU beats SF week 17)
HOU over JAX

(for SF to beat HOU week 17 to pass us, but if STL wins, slight SOS advantage gained over ARI)
SF over STL

BUF over CIN (and SOS benefits)
NYJ over NE (Monday night)
GB over CHI
ARI over PHI
TEN over MIA

(SOS benefits over other teams in closest competition)
OAK over DEN
CLE over PIT

(lowers our SOS)
BAL over MIN

SEA over IND (unless ARI wins their game, then we want IND)
DAL over CAR (unless both ARI wins and BUF loses then we want CAR)

(only SOS advantage over 3 win teams)
TB over ATL
NYG over WAS

(not applicable)
KC / SD


December 22nd, 2005, 12:09 am
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Damn, Scotty! You sure put a lot of work into that. Personally, if they can't move up high enough to get Ferguson, I'd rather have them win a game and sit back at 10-12 to get Thomas, McNeill, or Winston.

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December 22nd, 2005, 11:29 pm
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slybri19 wrote:
Damn, Scotty! You sure put a lot of work into that. Personally, if they can't move up high enough to get Ferguson, I'd rather have them win a game and sit back at 10-12 to get Thomas, McNeill, or Winston.


if they lose both, they are virtually guaranteed 2-7, most likely being at number 6.


December 22nd, 2005, 11:46 pm
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My guess is that Ferguson would be gone by #6, so I'd take the lower pick and save $10M or so in the process. Don't get me wrong. I like what you're doing here calculating the draft pick status and all, but I would rather see value instead of excessive contract demands for top ten picks. That's just me.

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December 23rd, 2005, 12:00 am
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That's why part of me wants to take an OT high in the draft...but the money of a #6 or #9 pick on an OT who will be learning on the job makes me lean towards wanting to invest that money in a skill position guy, like a MLB like AJ Hawk or a DE like Mario Williams.

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December 23rd, 2005, 12:10 am
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conversion02 wrote:
That's why part of me wants to take an OT high in the draft...but the money of a #6 or #9 pick on an OT who will be learning on the job makes me lean towards wanting to invest that money in a skill position guy, like a MLB like AJ Hawk or a DE like Mario Williams.



This is the part that drives me crazy too. I hate waiting for linemen to develop - but at the same time it's really a huge need. :?

I also agree AJ Hawk or Mario Williams would be good.

It's tough to go wrong with a top 10 pick.




... Hmmmm .... Did I say that our loud? :shock:

(Charles Rogers... Mike Williams...) :(

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December 23rd, 2005, 5:13 am
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Quote:
It's tough to go wrong with a top 10 pick.


Unless your the Lions.....lol.


Quote:
if they can't move up high enough to get Ferguson, I'd rather have them win a game and sit back at 10-12 to get Thomas, McNeill, or Winston.


I agree Sly! If we cannot move up and get someone like Ferguson or Williams from NC State (if he declares), I would rather have a lower pick that will not demand as much money. Those other three OL prospects are not on Ferguson's level, but the dropoff is not that much. It is such a good draft for OL prospects, I really don't think we could screw that up.

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December 23rd, 2005, 11:22 am
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[quote]That's why part of me wants to take an OT high in the draft...but the money of a #6 or #9 pick on an OT who will be learning on the job makes me lean towards wanting to invest that money in a skill position guy, like a MLB like AJ Hawk or a DE like Mario Williams.[/quote]

i like your thoughts here but MLB and DE are not "skill positions." I would take Mario Williams or a top QB like Vince Young in a heartbeat but if those 2 are not there its gotta be an offensive lineman or a cornerback not AJ Hawk who might be a stretch as an NFL MLB - i think he is a better OLB prospect.


December 23rd, 2005, 2:26 pm
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slybri19 wrote:
Damn, Scotty! You sure put a lot of work into that. Personally, if they can't move up high enough to get Ferguson, I'd rather have them win a game and sit back at 10-12 to get Thomas, McNeill, or Winston.


Screw it... even if we get the high pick we can trade down... I hear that teams won't be as willing this year to trade up, but I'm sure there would be some sort of offer... Allegedly Millen received offers last year, just none that he wanted more than Mike Williams....


December 23rd, 2005, 5:38 pm
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Quote:
Screw it... even if we get the high pick we can trade down... I hear that teams won't be as willing this year to trade up, but I'm sure there would be some sort of offer... Allegedly Millen received offers last year, just none that he wanted more than Mike Williams....


Agreed!

Bush, Leinart, Ferguson, Mario Williams, Kiwanuka, Hawk, and perhaps a CB (Williams or Tye Hill) could get a team to bite if we aren't asking for a ridiculous trade.

If we are in the top 5-7 picks........a trade down is definitely a possibility.......and has been in MOST recent drafts (last 8-9 years).


December 23rd, 2005, 6:02 pm
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I was going through the SOS this morning, and it appears that the Lions will be tied for the 11th pick or have the 12th pick outright following the remaining three games this week. I also took a look at the games next weekend and barring any upsets, the Lions should end up with either the 10th or 11th pick this year.

Like many of you, I would prefer a trade down for additional picks, but Millen has only done that once during his tenure here, so it's not something I hold out much hope for. Now that they will probably drop out of the top ten, that scenario is even less likely and les desirable IMO.

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December 25th, 2005, 11:05 am
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slybri19 wrote:
I was going through the SOS this morning, and it appears that the Lions will be tied for the 11th pick or have the 12th pick outright following the remaining three games this week. I also took a look at the games next weekend and barring any upsets, the Lions should end up with either the 10th or 11th pick this year.

Like many of you, I would prefer a trade down for additional picks, but Millen has only done that once during his tenure here, so it's not something I hold out much hope for. Now that they will probably drop out of the top ten, that scenario is even less likely and les desirable IMO.


yeah, yesterday was a sad day for the lions, but the consolation is at least joey harrington looked impressive on that last drive and drove up his trade stock. the best scenario is for joey to look good next week and lose 488-486, and keep his value high if we decide to move him. i no longer have any clue what position or direction the lions will go with the pick now, so many possibilites now that we aren't looking at the top 6 premium players, and we are in a much larger tier of players at the next level.


December 25th, 2005, 11:50 am
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bigscottyz wrote:
i no longer have any clue what position or direction the lions will go with the pick now, so many possibilites now that we aren't looking at the top 6 premium players, and we are in a much larger tier of players at the next level.


Which sucks...because that means we won't get crap if we trade down :x

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December 25th, 2005, 12:24 pm
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This draft is very deep at OT....so I would love to see us trade down to #20 to get an extra 2nd and get our OT at around #20 and then get need of DE/LB/CB with the next 2 picks in the 2nd round.

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December 27th, 2005, 4:29 pm
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