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 Trade Down possibilities? 
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Post Trade Down possibilities?
EVERYBODY has probably figured out that I'll take a trade down JUST about every year.........and this year is NO DIFFERENT.

I always maintain that this is THE GREATEST TEAM GAME of all.

Therefore........it is my belief that building the best 53 man roster is better than trying to build the best core of 5 superstars (and then worrying about the other 48 guys later).

I also believe that trading down doesn't mean that a team CAN'T land premier players. Many of the game's superstars are drafted in the mid-to-late 1st round (and 2nd round as well).

I know many people are resigned that "we can't always trade down b/c you have to have someone willing to pay the price." BUT I disagree.

WHY?

Because I firmly believe that just about every team asks for too much in return. They usually go by that "Jimmy Johnson value chart".........which I don't agree with. I would take less than a 3rd rounder to move down 3 or 4 spots from where we are right now, but I WOULD try to get that team to throw in a 2007 pick because teams always seem more willing to give up a future pick.

The more picks that are accumulated........the easier it is to trade up or down in the future as well.........and it is easier to maintain qulaity depth. It also protects the team against the "BUST" factor. If a team picks a high 1st rounder.......they are financially committed to that player for 4-5 years. But if the team has a bunch of draft picks.......it is easier to cut ties and move on because they likely have another recently drafted player waiting in the wings to take over.

So here goes a long wait.......and lots of speculation........on how to build a winner.



HITORICALLY........the most likely trade down possibility is with a team picking 2 to 5 spots down from us that wants to make sure they get "THEIR GUY" before another team picks him. This deal happens fairly regularly and usually costs the team a 3rd rounder to move up (but like I said, I'd be flexible).

The teams in this category are St. Louis, Cleveland, Baltimore, Philly, Atlanta, and Miami (picks 11-16).

One good thing that favors the Lions being able to make a trade down......is that Arizona picks right behind them

WHY?

At first look.......you say......Arizona will draft a RB or an OT because their running game was terrible.

BUT......Dennis Green is known to be one of the most Unpredictable drafters in the last 2 decades. That means the teams lower than Arizona targeting a specific player won't believe they "KNOW" what Dennis Green will do.......and may be more likely to get ahead of him.
Also.....Dennis Green doesn't trade down in the 1st round typically, so a team wanting to move ahead of St. Louis likely has to trade with the Lions.


Arizona needs RB, OT, DT
St. Louis needs DBs, DBs, LB and maybe DE.

Therefore.............

#12.......Cleveland wants defense.
..............trade up for Ngata? NG is most difficult to fill on 3-4
.............I don't see Cleveland trading up......they have many needs and playing the 3-4 means they can get front 7 guys lower (Chad Greenway + Bobby Carpenter are great 3-4 fits)

#13........Baltimore
...............depends on the contract of Jamal Lewis!
...............also need CB, DL
...............Ozzie is notorious for taking BPA.

#14..........Philly
.................trade around a lot in the draft!
.................NEED a DE to replace D. Burgess. (Kiwanuka or Hali at #9?)
.................Need a WR to replace T.O. (trade up not likely)
.................Need a OT b/c Tra Thomas is a ? in the future

#15 ..........Atlanta
................NEED a DE!...........BADLY!
................also need FS + LB help.


January 6th, 2006, 11:24 am
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Lions 2006 First Round Trade Down Scenarios

#10 Arizona Cardinals
Needs: OT, DE, LB, RB
To trade 1st rounders: Cards give up 5th rnd pick, swap 3rd rnd picks with the Lions
For who?: Arizona may be interested in getting Williams or Kiwanuka if they feel the Lions will get one of them. Also, the Cards could be interested in one of the tackles behind D. Ferguson.

#11 St. Louis Rams
Needs: LB, DB, TE, DL
To trade 1st rounders: Rams give up 4th & 5th rnd pick
For who?: The Rams will only trade with the Lions if they feel someone else is negotiating with Millen for a player they have targeted.

#12 Cleveland Browns
Needs: OT, DT, LB, QB
To trade 1st rounders: Browns give up 3rd rnd pick, swap 2nd rnd picks with the Lions
For who?: If Ngata falls past Buffalo (unlikely), the Browns may want him enough to move ahead of the Rams and Cards to get him. Desire in one of the stud linebackers could motivate a trade as well.

#13 Baltimore Ravens
Needs: RB, OG, DT, S
To trade 1st rounders: Ravens give up 2nd rnd pick, get 3rd & 5th rnd picks from the Lions
For who?: The Ravens may need to replace two running backs. Lendale White may be intriguing to the Cards, so the Ravens may want to trade up to get him.

#14 Philadelphia Eagles
Needs: RB, LB, WR, DT
To trade 1st rounders: Eagles give up 3rd & 4th rnd picks
For who?: Yet another team who may have strong interest in Lendale or perhaps one of the linebackers.

#15 Atlanta Falcons
Needs: S, DE, LB, RB
To trade 1st rounders: Falcons give up 3rd rnd pick & 3rd rnd pick in '07
For who?: Do the Falcons want Kiwi or Mario? You bet they do. Or perhaps they want to guarantee getting Michael Huff ahead of the Rams.

#16 Miami Dolphins
Needs: QB, OT, LB, S
To trade 1st rounders: Dolphins give up 2nd rnd pick, swap 3rd rnd picks
For who?: Miami wants a quarterback or an offensive tackle badly. Nick Saban will likely offer Ricky Williams as trade bait to another team, but maybe not.

LONGSHOT TRADE:
#22 Denver Broncos
Needs: TE, WR, OT, DT
To trade: Broncos give up #22 & #30(projected), swap 3rd rnd picks
For who?: I highly doubt Denver will give up two first round picks to move up, as their needs aren't pressing. But it's fun to dream....

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January 6th, 2006, 2:45 pm
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#1 Overall Pick

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Quote:
#14 Philadelphia Eagles
Needs: RB, LB, WR, DT
To trade 1st rounders: Eagles give up 3rd & 4th rnd picks
For who?: Yet another team who may have strong interest in Lendale or perhaps one of the linebackers.

#15 Atlanta Falcons
Needs: S, DE, LB, RB
To trade 1st rounders: Falcons give up 3rd rnd pick & 3rd rnd pick in '07
For who?: Do the Falcons want Kiwi or Mario? You bet they do. Or perhaps they want to guarantee getting Michael Huff ahead of the Rams.


These are the 2 teams I think are the BEST possibilities to trade with the Lions.

I think Kiwanuka MAY be the key to a trade down.......because he fits the "scheme" for both Atlanta and Philly........and they both need a DE. The draft stock of Tamba Hali may have an effect on the demand of Kiwanuka though.........since I've been seeing a few "draft gurus" saying he has really helped himself this year.


Also..........

#17 Minnesota Vikings
needs: RB, LB, OT or OG, SS

Minny needs a RB who can carry the load (LenDale White?).

It would be a high price to pay to move up 8 spots to #9..........but the Vikings really don't have a ton of holes on the roster.............and they have cap room to sign FAs to fit minor holes.

Anything is possible, right?


January 7th, 2006, 10:51 am
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The key is Arizona. Since they have a variety of needs, Detroit should be in good shape to move down. Teams will be looking to move ahead of the Cards if they feel an elite prospect is available. Of course, I was certain the Lions would trade down last year. I've heard the Cards are looking hard at either Williams or Kiwanuka. Brian would know more than I, since he is a Cards fan.

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January 7th, 2006, 11:56 am
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#1 Overall Pick

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Quote:
The key is Arizona. Since they have a variety of needs, Detroit should be in good shape to move down


I agree......and I'll again add that Dennis Green's unpredictability in the DRAFT will further help our chances. Other teams just won't be able to get a read on what Dennis Green is leaning towards.


January 7th, 2006, 4:44 pm
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ST Coordinator – Danny Crossman

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It is not looking good for getting a stud at #9, but it is not easy to trade down in that situation. If you know how to set your board trading down maximizes your value, unless the talent strata is such that the guys in position you need are around your slots.

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January 7th, 2006, 5:39 pm
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m2karateman wrote:
The key is Arizona. Since they have a variety of needs, Detroit should be in good shape to move down. Teams will be looking to move ahead of the Cards if they feel an elite prospect is available. Of course, I was certain the Lions would trade down last year. I've heard the Cards are looking hard at either Williams or Kiwanuka. Brian would know more than I, since he is a Cards fan.


No way Arizona needs an end. Not with Bertrand Berry and Chike Okeafor on board. Okeafor was a great signing and Berry is a Pro Bowl player who was maintaining that status until an injury.

But they aren't using a top 10 pick on an end when they have two of the NFL's top 10 DEs, and are paying big bucks for them.

Rushing offense is the KEY. That's what they need the most, offensive line help and a running back. Everything else was great this year, but you can't go anywhere without a rushing attack. They were dead last in rushing. 8th in total offense, 8th in total defense. 1st in passing offense. 10th in rushing defense. 12th in passing defense.

OL, RB, QB, DT are where they are going.

But then again, Denny takes the best talent, and if Williams uncharacteristically were to fall to #10, they may take him. But the same can be said for any top talent.


January 7th, 2006, 6:38 pm
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The cards were pitiful at running the ball. Heck even Mooch and KJ did better.

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January 9th, 2006, 2:08 pm
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Brian wrote:
But then again, Denny takes the best talent, and if Williams uncharacteristically were to fall to #10, they may take him. But the same can be said for any top talent.


It does seem like there is more "obvious talent" this year than there was last year.

I'd hate to see the Lions trade down and take a second rate player. I'd much rather see them stay were they are or even trade up to get a franchise type player

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January 9th, 2006, 2:10 pm
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Brian - what's your thoughts on the Cards taking DeAngelo Williams at #10? I know the Cards need help at RB and I think Williams will be a very good RB in the NFL. Where's he rated on your board?

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January 9th, 2006, 3:29 pm
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I don't think Williams will necesarily be there at #10. There are teams desperate for a RB. Bush, Williams, and White (when he declares) may all be gone in the top 10. White may be a top 5 pick when all is said and done. Williams is probably in the 8-15 range as for talent, there's a bunch of people besides 6 people I identify as blue chippers at this point who are first rounders. I like the 3 heismans, M. Williams, Hawk, Ferguson as the 6 blue chip prospects, the can't miss guys. Then you have second tier guys like Cutler, D. Williams, White, Maroney, Holmes, Davis, Justice, Hali, Kiwanuka, Ngata (almost blue-chip), Greenway, Ryans, J. Williams, Hill, Cromartie, Huff. All guys you could make top 10 arguments for, but the draft is so deep this year.


January 9th, 2006, 4:12 pm
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Reason I ask, is that I was doing a mock and had the Cards taking Williams at 10.

Edit - ugh, so does Scott Wright...

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January 9th, 2006, 4:18 pm
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If we can get Kiwi I don't know if I would want to trade down. Just take him... He seems as if he's going to be a dominating DE, and IMO that would help our team more than anything. A better pass rush will help our Cb's, and more pressure with rushing 4 would help our Lbs. I know we have a lot of holes to fill, and the idea of trading down and getting Huff and perhaps helping the OL or MLB spot with w/e pick we get to trade up would surely be nice, but I think if Kiwi or Mario Williams are there you just take 'em.


January 9th, 2006, 5:08 pm
#1 Overall Pick

Joined: October 13th, 2005, 10:34 am
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Quote:
It does seem like there is more "obvious talent" this year than there was last year.

I'd hate to see the Lions trade down and take a second rate player. I'd much rather see them stay were they are or even trade up to get a franchise type player



You don't have to pick in the top 5 to get a very good player.

The Patriots are having sustained success because they get value with their picks. Their picks are team players who can contribute.......and aren't expected to be a "savior"


There are VERY FEW players in the last 15-20 years who have been worth trading up for in the top 10 picks. It has happened many times.......and the team that trades up almost always gets the worst end of the deal.

Even if the player they trade up to get is a good player.......the financial ramifications of paying a top 5 pick are huge with the salary cap.

If the player targeted isn't a Peyton Manning-type player........it usually isn't worth the cost.


Just look back at previous drafts.......and many Pro-bowlers can be had from #10 to #30 just about every year.


January 9th, 2006, 7:37 pm
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The Lions would serve themselves well in my opinion to take full advantage of this deep draft and try to make a move completely out of the 1st round or at least to the later 1st to get as many picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I think a team that they could make that move with could be the Falcons that are only a couple of players from taking that next step. I think the Lions could get the Falcons 2nd rounder and 4th rounder this year as well as next years 1st in exchange for the #9 pick this year. This would put Atlanta in a position to land two top tier defensive players. The Falcons could be in position for any combination of players that can take a good team and lift them to the true contender ranking.

The Lions just like any other team always has that ability to turn it around quickly but I don't see them as real contenders for the Super Bowl anytime before 2008. So the Lions would be putting themselves in position with a solid draft this year and another next year to build a team that could make real noise in 2008.

On top of what they get from Atlanta they can also look to get a 2nd rounder from a team that is a CB short from being a better team for Dre. I'm not looking to move Bly because of what he said but because he is gone afer 2007 and when that happens they get nothing in return. As I said earlier they are a few years away from even being considered a Super Bowl contender. So why hold on to a guy that won't be here when it's really important. Yeah it's nice to have him here and watch and wait for his big play but it's time to start building a winner and that takes a "team" of quality playmakers not one or two.

If they could get these things to fly and end up with three 2nd rounders they would be in a position to go after defensive players and O-linemen that would normally be 1st rounders. This draft is so deep that guys that would normally be mid 1st rounders are going to fall to the mid- later 2nd round because of depth and team needs. If the Lions could come away with a 2nd round of Ahmad Brooks, Abdul Hodge, or Kai Parham at MLB along with any of the CB's that should now be available. My favorite but he could be gone earlier than some think is Richard Marshall maybe the best healthy CB. Cromarttie might be the best and might be available because of his injury but he could also go first off the board of pure CB's if he shows he's recovered.

I'd think about O-line but the more I look at it they can get just as good value in the 3rd as they can in the 2nd. Especially and I can't believe I'm saying it they bring back Backus for this year. Especially if they have two 1st rounders next year in which they can then bring in a premier LT. I'm torn on DE here as well if guys like Tapp or Hali are available simply because there are going to be some really good DE's in the 3rd and 4th round. I guess the other position would be a best available type of pick. If they get to their first pick in the 2nd and a TE like Davis, Pope, or Lewis slips because of team needs (Pope and Davis are probably gone in the 1st) I think any one of them would be great replacements for Pollard in a year or two. Those are just a few names at positions of need that are flying around in my head and they might fall even farther down. This draft just has so many guys with potential to be NFL stars it's crazy.

So pretty much they put themselves in a position to bring in at least three maybe more players that can come in and contribute right away from this draft. On top of that they are looking at two 1st rounders next year to grab a best player available and maybe a QB if this upcoming season doesn't answer the QB question. The options for them if they make a big trade to get an additional 2nd rounder even if it doesn't cost them a 1st rounder this year are so big I don't see how they can pass any opportunity to do so. They just have so many holes and or upgrades taht need to be made that they need to do so and at the most fiscal way possible.


January 10th, 2006, 5:28 pm
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