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 2007 draft 
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Brian wrote:
m2karateman wrote:
The Lions have had top ten picks for the last six years. Has it helped them? Trading down and getting additional picks would help this team more. Just because Mooch and company blew the picks, doesn't mean that it must ALWAYS be that way, no matter who the team is. Why is it that a team like New England can have a low first rounder every year and STILL manage to come away with some of the best talent?

Because New England has a successful scouting staff, something the Lions have yet to find.


Right you are, Boy Wonder!! And that's exactly why the Lions trading down and getting more picks makes more sense. They've proven they can't hit the obvious targets, so let's give them more ammo and hope to God they make a lucky shot.

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February 2nd, 2007, 8:16 pm
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I'd really like them to trade back just to get a couple extra picks and put themselves in position in the 2nd and 3rd rounds to at least look at a few "football players" in guys like Weddle, Bazuin, Siler, Beekman, and Ramirez. I'm also interested in seeing them workout Edwards as a non 1st round option at QB. Tanard Jackson is another guy that loves the game and fits the role of a Cover 2 CB and depending on his workouts should be a late 3rd rounder at worse.


February 2nd, 2007, 8:28 pm
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m2karateman wrote:
And that's exactly why the Lions trading down and getting more picks makes more sense. They've proven they can't hit the obvious targets, so let's give them more ammo and hope to God they make a lucky shot.
There's less talent available in the later rounds then the first. I'd rather take my chance on one of the top prospects than expect this staff to find the diamonds in the rough.


February 2nd, 2007, 11:44 pm
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Quote:
There's less talent available in the later rounds then the first. I'd rather take my chance on one of the top prospects than expect this staff to find the diamonds in the rough.


This team has AT LEAST 10-15 roster spots that need to be filled or UPGRADED right now............and that doesn't even take Redding into consideration.

So how exactly would the Lions be able to fill these voids any time on the next 2 or 3 years..........especially when you consider that the free agent pool is practically DRY with the higher salary cap allowing most teams to keep their own players???


I certainly don't expect to fill EVERY need in 1 offseason............but they have more needs to fill than just about every other NFL team. And considering that there are many teams with just as much (or MORE) cap space available for free agents..........we have to bring in a greater quantity of players through the DRAFT to improve the depth on this team.........or we will continue to be cellar dwellers.


So how is that going to be accomplished..............especially when the #2 pick and his $25 million signing bonus will only make our cap situation tighter for the next 5 years???


The talent available at #15-#20 of this draft is not that far behind the top 5 picks in this draft. In fact......most "draft gurus" can't even agree on who the top 5 players even are at this point. Not only that......but MOST of the top 10 players on the lists I've seen don't even FIT our schemes well.......which means the Lions are better off moving down just to save money. The extra picks are just icing on the cake.


February 3rd, 2007, 3:18 pm
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phunnypharm wrote:
The talent available at #15-#20 of this draft is not that far behind the top 5 picks in this draft. In fact......most "draft gurus" can't even agree on who the top 5 players even are at this point.

I completely disagree, and talk to an NFL scout and he will disagree as well.

At 2, you get Calvin Johnson. At 15-20, you end up with Robert Meachem or Dwayne Jarrett.

Different position? At 2, you get Joe Thomas. At 15-20, you may get Levi Brown.

This isn't like 2006 where there are numerous talented players at one position, such as LB, and you can trade down. Or 2004 where you could trade down to and grab a WR. There are maybe 10-12 starters in this draft, that's it.

Hold on, Charlie Sanders made the hall, i'll be back.


February 3rd, 2007, 3:41 pm
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Okay,

As I was saying, maybe 12 kids in this draft that are starters. Not blue chip players, starters. There are 2 blue chip players in this draft, arguably 3. You can't trade down and acquire 2 players in this draft that are going to start. This is a very weak draft. The talent is gone after the start of the 3rd round.

You trade down to the 15-20, and you miss out on the impact players in this draft, and the compensation you get is a bunch of backups. Look at the players in the middle of the 2nd round. You're hearing about a potential fullback and kicker as 2nd round picks. This isn't a good draft.

I said in another thread, i'm not moving from #2 unless i'm getting a future #1. I don't believe you can justify passing on Calvin Johnson or JaMarcus Russell with a 2nd round pick, which i've seen some throw out as an idea.


February 3rd, 2007, 4:08 pm
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#1..........

Quote:
talk to an NFL scout and he will disagree as well


Would that be the NFL scouts that liked.......

Eddie Kennison ........over............ Marvin Harrison?
Bryan Still ...............over............Muhsin Muhammad?
David Terrell............over............Reggie Wayne?
Rod Gardner.............over............Reggie Wayne?
Freddie Mitchell..........over............Reggie Wayne?
Quincy Morgan...........over............Chad Johnson?
JaJuan Dawson...........over...........Darrell Jackson?
Ashlie Lelie................over............Javon Walker?
Spergon Wynn...........over............Tom Brady?
Akili Smith.................over............Daunte Culpepper?
Dave Ragone.............over............Chris Simms?
Andre Wadsworth.......over............Grant Wistrom?
Courtney Brown.........over............Shaun Ellis?
Lawrence Phillips........over............Eddie George?
Curtis Enis.................over............Fred Taylor?
Ron Dayne................over.............Shaun Alexander?
William Green............over.............Clinton Portis?
Chris Claiborne..........over.............Al Wilson?

Scouts are wrong about a lot of players!!!

That is YET ANOTHER reason that I believe in trading down. Many scouts rave about guys that turn out to be terds.........while other players are passed over because the scouts don't think they can play in the NFL.

Zach Thomas...........5th round..........too small, too slow.
Ray Lewis................late 1st..............too small
Anquan Boldin..........2nd round..........too slow
Marvin Harrison.........late 1st.............too skinny
Steve Smith..............3rd round..........too short
Drew Brees...............2nd round.........too short, arm strength?
Nathan Vasher...........4th round..........too small
Antoine Winfield.........late 1st..............too small
Brian Kelly................2nd round...........too slow
Ronde Barber............3rd round...........too slow, too small

About 50-60% of the players taken in the top 10 actually make big impacts for their original team. That leaves a lot of guys that are considered busts. In fact.........10 of the 20 guys picked either #1 or #2 overall in the 1990s failed to make any considerable impact for their team at all.

Even though the 2nd and 3rd rounds may produce an even lower percentage of successes........it isn't by that much.

So I guess you could say that I don't take a scout's opinion to be truth. They are wrong a good percentage of the time...........so I rather give myself more ammo to fire to hit those elusive talents.


#2...........

Quote:
At 2, you get Calvin Johnson. At 15-20, you end up with Robert Meachem or Dwayne Jarrett


I wouldn't get any of them for the Lions because they really don't FIT Martz' offense. As good as Calvin Johnson may be in the NFL for the right team........we already have Roy Williams as the Big WR, so now we need some of the shorter WRs that rely on quickness and agility to make this offense work. I don't care how good Calvin Johnson could be for another team.......he isn't going to make this offense considerably better until the O-line problems are fixed.


#3...........

Quote:
Different position? At 2, you get Joe Thomas. At 15-20, you may get Levi Brown


I wouldn't want Joe Thomas anywhere in the top 10.........amybe not in the 1st round. I consider him a project who needs to get much stronger before he has any kind of impact..........which may never happen.

Quote:
I don't believe you can justify passing on Calvin Johnson or JaMarcus Russell


I see JaMarcus Russell as a guy who doesn't FIT Martz' offense well at all. I also see him as a potential BUST because I don't believe he has the brains to be a GREAT QB. I saw LSU try to simplify all of his reads as much as possible.........throwing many WR bubble screens, hitches, and screens to the RB as well.

I can't justify gambling the next 5 years on a guy who isn't knocking you......or any other teams over. If the Lions don't get an offer of more than a 2nd rounder from Cleveland or Tampa for Russell..........perhaps that should tell them that he isn't a great prospect?


#4...........


Quote:
You trade down to the 15-20, and you miss out on the impact players in this draft, and the compensation you get is a bunch of backups


I COMPLETELY disagree.

I think at #15 to #20...........The Lions would be looking at the top OGs in the draft (esp. Blalock), possibly the top MLB (Willis), a safety who could cover (Nelson, Landry), or a cover 2 CB (Revis, maybe even Hall?).

All of those are positions of NEED..........and many of them likely can help this team more right away than Thomas or Russell could in their wildest dreams.


#5...........

Quote:
As I was saying, maybe 12 kids in this draft that are starters


WOW.........I think that MIGHT be stretching it a bit.

But even IF that were correct..........the Lions should look to trade down and get extra picks for NEXT YEAR.

Let's face it.........this team is not going to be a contender next year no matter how hard they try this offseason. Between a thin Free Agent class and a draft that is apparently terrible..........the talent level is not going to catch up to the Bears, Eagles, or Seahawks next year.

THEREFORE............it would be wise of the Lions to acquire as many picks in the 2008 draft as possible. Luckily.......many teams are incredibly inpatient and are willing to ditch future picks to get who they want right now!!!

I wouldn't be surprised if the Lions could get two 2nd rounders in 2008 plus additional picks if they moved down to #15 to #25. Then......if they don't like the guys available in round 3.......they could offer their pick for a 3rd in 2008 + a lower round pick.

The key is to be flexible........and give themselves a chance have a great opportunity handed to them.

At the VERY worst...........the Lions end up with more picks, which gives them a better chance to land that "diamond in the rough"..........and they pay less money to a potential BUST at #2..........which may also save them enough money to get a proven player in free agency.

ALSO...........perhaps most importantly............they don't have player that is EXPECTED to play because of his draft position. If the Lions stay at the #2 pick..........Marinelli can talk all he wants about playing the guys who earn it......but the Lions will be stuck with the expectations to play that guy sooner rather than later. This could be the key to turning the culture around in the locker room for the long haul.


February 3rd, 2007, 6:28 pm
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I can Guarantee that more than 12 players drafted his year will start. Heck I will say that least 30 will start. Every year it is the same thing. This draft is weak and every year teams get starters in the latter round.


February 4th, 2007, 1:58 pm
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jrlax wrote:
I can Guarantee that more than 12 players drafted his year will start. Heck I will say that least 30 will start. Every year it is the same thing. This draft is weak and every year teams get starters in the latter round.


This year, the draft IS WEAK !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Any starters in the later rounds will be few and VERY FAR between.


February 4th, 2007, 9:54 pm
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the difference tonight has definitely been QB play....QBs that turn the ball over do not win....so why arent we looking at QB again??? whoever says Quarterback is not the most important position on a football field is full of poop...Lions really need to forget the Joey fiasco and get on the ball and find someone that can replace Kitna either in 07 or that will step in in 2008


February 4th, 2007, 11:36 pm
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Quote:
the difference tonight has definitely been QB play


This is hardly the whole story.

As I pointed out in another thread................

Thomas Jones..........not including his long run.........ran the ball 11 times for 32 yards before the Colts went up by 12 points in the 4th quarter.

The Colts faced 3rd-and-long (8 yards or more) only 8 times for the entire game.........and Manning only converted 2 of them.

The Colts rushed for about 130 yards in the first 3 quarters.

The Colts held the ball for 31:00 minutes of the first 3 quarters (45:00).



Quote:
QBs that turn the ball over do not win....so why arent we looking at QB again???


Manning threw 7 INTs in the playoffs....even with his team averaging 151 yards rushing per game.

QBs that don't have a good rushing attack will turn the ball over even if their name is Manning.

QBs that don't get good protection will also turn the ball (Kitna was sacked a NFL leading 63 times).............while Manning was sacked only 6 times in 4 playoff games (against 3 of the TOP defenses in hte NFL).



Quote:
whoever says Quarterback is not the most important position on a football field is full of poop...


I don't think anybody has made that assertion............but many do believe that the O-line situation and a good running game need to fixed before any QB can succeed here.

PLUS..........history has shown once again that YOUNG QBs with less than 4 or 5 years experience don't do well in the playoffs.


Just because good QB play is important.........doesn't mean that you can turn a terd into a diamond.

I don't think you'll find many scouts that can honestly say they think either Russell or Quinn are going to be the next Carson Palmer or Peyton Manning.......and certainly not Tom Brady.

Russell may have all the physical tools in the world.......but he has yet to show much against top defenses despite having plenty of talent around him at LSU. Nobody thought he would be a top pick until he beat up on a BAD Notre Dame defense. Even then.........at least 50% of his pass completions were hitches, WR bubble screens, or passes to RBs. His downfield throws were simplified reads......not the typical pro-style offense.

And Quinn?

Well..........we've all been over this before, but this guy hasn't played all that well against any of the top teams Notre Dame plays. In his junior year......he had 15 TDs against MSU, BYU, and Air Force. He totaled 16 TDs for the rest of the year. Take a look at his games against USC, UofM, Ohio State, and LSU over the last 2 years.

The one thing I will say in Quinn's defense is that I don't he had a great O-line in front of him. BUT..........I did see him miss many of his downfield throws against good coverage..... even when he had time to throw. It sure did seem that many of his longer completions came when he threw jump balls to Samardzja.


Both of these QBs scream average to me..........at best.


I just can't see that gambling with a $25 million SB and cap-killing salary on an average player makes any sense at all.


February 6th, 2007, 11:47 am
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Looking at both sides of this discussion,

the value of High round talent VS trade down and filling needs

Right now with the state the lions are in I'm more swayed to the
trade down and need filling..

there is no question that a High talent top five pick can impact a team
but the key here is the word team... and unless you have a surrounding cast your big name high dollar player might not do mutch to change your
up coming seasons fortunes.

the idea that all your going to get is backups in the lower rounds and diamonds in the rough is just dumb luck is ok with me.

as alot of the starters we have now are at best backups by other teams standards...so the guys we have as backups to them are really, really sub par..
and this team needs some depth very badly.

we need a solid TEAM even if it is just average level players who can play there position well, and true back up guys who can step in and fill
a position when needed and perform at the same level.

last year was a disaster due to injuries becuase we have no depth to deal with it.

i think you can do more with a deep team of solid work horse "average" players who know, and can do their job

than a couple of superstars and a bunch of scrubs...

and listening to Marinelli and Martz talk about their coaching philosiphy(sic)
I believe thats what they want too.


February 6th, 2007, 12:52 pm
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phunnypharm wrote:
Quote:
the difference tonight has definitely been QB play


This is hardly the whole story.

As I pointed out in another thread................

Thomas Jones..........not including his long run.........ran the ball 11 times for 32 yards before the Colts went up by 12 points in the 4th quarter.

The Colts faced 3rd-and-long (8 yards or more) only 8 times for the entire game.........and Manning only converted 2 of them.

The Colts rushed for about 130 yards in the first 3 quarters.

The Colts held the ball for 31:00 minutes of the first 3 quarters (45:00).



Quote:
QBs that turn the ball over do not win....so why arent we looking at QB again???


Manning threw 7 INTs in the playoffs....even with his team averaging 151 yards rushing per game.

QBs that don't have a good rushing attack will turn the ball over even if their name is Manning.

QBs that don't get good protection will also turn the ball (Kitna was sacked a NFL leading 63 times).............while Manning was sacked only 6 times in 4 playoff games (against 3 of the TOP defenses in hte NFL).



Quote:
whoever says Quarterback is not the most important position on a football field is full of poop...


I don't think anybody has made that assertion............but many do believe that the O-line situation and a good running game need to fixed before any QB can succeed here.

PLUS..........history has shown once again that YOUNG QBs with less than 4 or 5 years experience don't do well in the playoffs.


Just because good QB play is important.........doesn't mean that you can turn a terd into a diamond.

I don't think you'll find many scouts that can honestly say they think either Russell or Quinn are going to be the next Carson Palmer or Peyton Manning.......and certainly not Tom Brady.

Russell may have all the physical tools in the world.......but he has yet to show much against top defenses despite having plenty of talent around him at LSU. Nobody thought he would be a top pick until he beat up on a BAD Notre Dame defense. Even then.........at least 50% of his pass completions were hitches, WR bubble screens, or passes to RBs. His downfield throws were simplified reads......not the typical pro-style offense.

And Quinn?

Well..........we've all been over this before, but this guy hasn't played all that well against any of the top teams Notre Dame plays. In his junior year......he had 15 TDs against MSU, BYU, and Air Force. He totaled 16 TDs for the rest of the year. Take a look at his games against USC, UofM, Ohio State, and LSU over the last 2 years.

The one thing I will say in Quinn's defense is that I don't he had a great O-line in front of him. BUT..........I did see him miss many of his downfield throws against good coverage..... even when he had time to throw. It sure did seem that many of his longer completions came when he threw jump balls to Samardzja.


Both of these QBs scream average to me..........at best.


I just can't see that gambling with a $25 million SB and cap-killing salary on an average player makes any sense at all.


I agree. I think we need to trade our 5th-7th round picks this year for 1 round improvements of each pick next year, so we will have the ammo to move up, ( if neccessary) to get our QB next year.


February 6th, 2007, 12:54 pm
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phunnypharm wrote:
Quote:
the difference tonight has definitely been QB play


This is hardly the whole story.

As I pointed out in another thread................

Thomas Jones..........not including his long run.........ran the ball 11 times for 32 yards before the Colts went up by 12 points in the 4th quarter.

The Colts faced 3rd-and-long (8 yards or more) only 8 times for the entire game.........and Manning only converted 2 of them.

The Colts rushed for about 130 yards in the first 3 quarters.

The Colts held the ball for 31:00 minutes of the first 3 quarters (45:00).



Quote:
QBs that turn the ball over do not win....so why arent we looking at QB again???


Manning threw 7 INTs in the playoffs....even with his team averaging 151 yards rushing per game.

QBs that don't have a good rushing attack will turn the ball over even if their name is Manning.

QBs that don't get good protection will also turn the ball (Kitna was sacked a NFL leading 63 times).............while Manning was sacked only 6 times in 4 playoff games (against 3 of the TOP defenses in hte NFL).



Quote:
whoever says Quarterback is not the most important position on a football field is full of poop...


I don't think anybody has made that assertion............but many do believe that the O-line situation and a good running game need to fixed before any QB can succeed here.

PLUS..........history has shown once again that YOUNG QBs with less than 4 or 5 years experience don't do well in the playoffs.


Just because good QB play is important.........doesn't mean that you can turn a terd into a diamond.

I don't think you'll find many scouts that can honestly say they think either Russell or Quinn are going to be the next Carson Palmer or Peyton Manning.......and certainly not Tom Brady.

Russell may have all the physical tools in the world.......but he has yet to show much against top defenses despite having plenty of talent around him at LSU. Nobody thought he would be a top pick until he beat up on a BAD Notre Dame defense. Even then.........at least 50% of his pass completions were hitches, WR bubble screens, or passes to RBs. His downfield throws were simplified reads......not the typical pro-style offense.

And Quinn?

Well..........we've all been over this before, but this guy hasn't played all that well against any of the top teams Notre Dame plays. In his junior year......he had 15 TDs against MSU, BYU, and Air Force. He totaled 16 TDs for the rest of the year. Take a look at his games against USC, UofM, Ohio State, and LSU over the last 2 years.

The one thing I will say in Quinn's defense is that I don't he had a great O-line in front of him. BUT..........I did see him miss many of his downfield throws against good coverage..... even when he had time to throw. It sure did seem that many of his longer completions came when he threw jump balls to Samardzja.


Both of these QBs scream average to me..........at best.


I just can't see that gambling with a $25 million SB and cap-killing salary on an average player makes any sense at all.


you made great points pertaining to the super bowl but you made reference to the 25 million dollar signing bonus. When you make such a large investment in a player that will make an impact on an entire team. Yes ,an offensive line is important, but drafting 1 lineman does not make a good line. Building a line takes philosophy and putting together the right parts through various avenues. Lions have already made Backus among the highest paid linemen in the NFL and gave a substantial amount of money to Woody and Raiola. if the Lions took Joe...would he be drafted number 2 only to switch positions to RT? will the Lions move their best lineman in Backus to RT? Joe Thomas has been a great pass blocker in the Big 10 but look at their running game against good teams. there are some good DEs in this draft but I really am apprehensive about reaching for a D lineman. Kinda like last year with Ernie Sims. He had a pretty good season but what kind of impact did he really give our defense? If Millen got a good offer...im sure he would trade down but assuming we stay at number 2.....id rather take the chance at a quarterback


February 10th, 2007, 8:25 pm
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Quote:
if the Lions took Joe...


I never meant to imply that Joe Thomas would be a good pick at #2 overall.................since I don't like Thomas as a prospect much at all.

Take a look at the thread titled "Joe Thomas Discussion" for my thoughtrs on him.


I'm saying that there IS NOT ANY PLAYER in this draft that I would risk a $25 million signing bonus on.

They need to take the best offer they can get to move down...........even if it doesn't match the so-called "value" of the #2 pick.

I don't see ANY "value" in paying HUGE money to any player in this draft.


February 11th, 2007, 8:25 am
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