View unanswered posts | View active topics It is currently October 23rd, 2014, 12:34 pm



Reply to topic  [ 30 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next
 Beyond 8 million: Obamacare math 
Author Message
Modmin Dude
User avatar

Joined: December 31st, 2004, 9:55 am
Posts: 12141
Post Beyond 8 million: Obamacare math
Politico wrote:
Beyond 8 million: Obamacare math
By BRETT NORMAN, JENNIFER HABERKORN and KYLE CHENEY | 4/19/14 7:04 AM EDT Updated: 4/20/14 8:48 PM EDT

Eight million may be the Obamacare magic number, but it’s not the only one that counts.

It’s not that 8 million isn’t a significant number. It is. The surge of people who signed up in the new health insurance exchanges surpassed both White House targets and expectations. It seemed unimaginable six months ago.

But the exchanges aren’t the only way people can get covered under the Affordable Care Act. And it’s by no means the only number people will keep fighting about. For the White House, the enrollment numbers are a political and psychological win. For the law’s critics, 8 million is a dubious statistic that doesn’t tell the whole story about people who lost insurance or have to pay more because of President Barack Obama’s law.

Now that the 2014 sign-up season has ended, here’s a look at several aspects of health law coverage and the brewing disputes about how to measure them.

The exchanges
The story of the Obamacare exchanges is really 51 stories — one for each state and D.C. No matter how many millions of people have signed up across the country, the law will succeed or fail separately in each individual exchange.

California’s exchange, for example, enrolled 1.4 million people — just shy of one-fifth of the entire U.S. total. Few other states have released final numbers through April 15, the last day most states allowed people to apply for 2014 coverage.

The national total means less than the health status of an individual exchange’s customers. If a state drew a lot of younger, healthier people, it will be able to offset the cost of older, sicker people and keep premiums in check next year.

The White House released the 8 million update but not new state-by-state breakdowns Thursday. Nor were any details on how many people have paid their first premiums. Insurers indicated recently that about 15 percent to 20 percent of their customers had yet to send in a payment. Many have until May 1.

And it will be months or years before it’s clear how many of the 8 million had insurance before and how many gained it under Obamacare.

The tallies will keep fluctuating, too. People will go in and out of the exchange as job changes, marriage and other family circumstances affect their health insurance status.

Medicaid
About 3 million more people were enrolled in Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program at the end of February than on Oct. 1. That number has surely grown by now, and it’s likely to go higher, perhaps dramatically so, by the end of 2014. Unlike with private insurance, people can get Medicaid coverage at any point during the year. There’s no open enrollment season, no deadline.

Another 8.7 million were deemed eligible for the program during that five-month period but did not enroll for various reasons. Some of them may still finalize their coverage.

The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that 8 million people would enroll in Medicaid this year because of the health care law. The increase is being driven overwhelmingly by the 26 states that have expanded Medicaid under Obamacare. Roughly another 5 million would be eligible if all states expanded Medicaid.

Other ways of getting covered
People aren’t just getting new insurance through the exchanges and Medicaid.

Millions are buying plans directly from insurers outside of the Obamacare marketplaces. Insurers say these individuals generally have incomes too high to qualify for premium subsidies, which are available only in the exchanges. Many people in this market already had insurance but are now buying plans that meet Obamacare requirements.

The Obama administration says it hasn’t been tracking this off-exchange enrollment number, but the CBO estimated that 5 million Americans would buy plans outside of the exchanges this year. A Rand Corp. survey released this month estimated that number at 7.8 million as of early 2014. All but about a half million had insurance last year.

From September to mid-March, the number of people covered by employer plans increased by 8.2 million, according to RAND. The role of Obamacare in boosting employer insurance is less clear. It could be driven, in part, by the individual mandate requirement to get insurance or pay a fine. The improving economy also probably helped.

In one final category, the White House does take credit for as many as 3.1 million young adults, up to age 26, who now are covered under their parents’ plans thanks to a provision in Obamacare that required that option. Not all would have been uninsured without this measure.

What will we know and when will we know it?
It will be months at least, and more likely years, before we know how many people gained coverage because of the ACA. There are a variety of different surveys and analyses — some plodding but robust by the Census Bureau, others smaller snapshots by think tanks, pollsters and consulting companies that are more timely but less definitive. Each has its own way of posing questions, slicing answers and sample size.

The early answers provide a wide range of estimates. For instance, outside groups’ early assessments of the law’s success so far in reducing the uninsured rate range from 5.4 million newly covered Americans (the quarterly Urban Institute’s Health Reform Monitoring Survey, funded in part by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation) to 9.3 million (the RAND survey).
The nonpartisan CBO’s most recent projection, released this week, estimates that 12 million Americans would get coverage in 2014 thanks to Obamacare. It’s a figure bolstered by the release Wednesday of a Gallup survey, which found that 4 percent of Americans are newly insured in 2014 — about half of them through the exchanges.

The evidence to come
The White House has said it won’t be able to determine precisely how many people have paid their premiums until at least this summer, when an automatic accounting system, the so-called back end of HealthCare.gov, is supposed to be completed.

The Current Population Survey, due out in September, will provide a Census Bureau estimate of the uninsured rate. Changes in the questions the survey uses to gauge that rate are at the center of accusations by some Republicans that the Obama administration is trying to manipulate the numbers. But the survey asks about the prior year — before most of the 2014 Obamacare coverage kicked in — so the data out in December will provide a 2013 baseline that can be used to measure Obamacare gains. The 2014 report, covering this first year of the ACA, won’t be ready until September 2015. That’s a long time to wait for clarity on ahot-burning political controversy.

The American Community Survey, another Census project, samples an even larger number of people, and that too will help measure the law’s impact. Its first release is also scheduled for September and will provide a look back at 2013. And the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also periodically conducts the National Health Insurance Survey, which was used to estimate the number of young adults who had coverage under their parents’ plans.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2014/04/o ... z2zX2k3gmP

_________________
Quote:
Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right....


April 21st, 2014, 11:16 am
Profile
RIP Killer
User avatar

Joined: August 6th, 2004, 9:21 am
Posts: 9494
Location: Dallas
Post Re: Beyond 8 million: Obamacare math
Man I have a hard time believing numbers the gov't reports these days - everything is twisted for various agendas depending on who is spinning them.

Some things in this article cause me to pause, "About 3 million more people were enrolled in Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program at the end of February than on Oct. 1. That number has surely grown by now, and it’s likely to go higher, perhaps dramatically so, by the end of 2014." - I don't get why they would include these numbers in Obamacare and they skew the figures dramatically. But it is probably by now well over half of those they considered to have "enrolled" in the program.

We don't know how many have paid a premium yet (kind of important to know) and how many already had insurance (or lost it like my wife even though we were told if we liked it we could keep it, maybe another reason I'm skeptical with anything the WH says/reports). The 8 million is a hollow number to me until we know what it means.

That said, at least the website seems to be working now! =D>

_________________
Image
LB Tweet


April 21st, 2014, 1:13 pm
Profile WWW
Modmin Dude
User avatar

Joined: December 31st, 2004, 9:55 am
Posts: 12141
Post Re: Beyond 8 million: Obamacare math
Pablo wrote:
Man I have a hard time believing numbers the gov't reports these days - everything is twisted for various agendas depending on who is spinning them.
Agreed, much like polls and stats they can be massaged to tell whichever story the author wants.
Pablo wrote:
Some things in this article cause me to pause, "About 3 million more people were enrolled in Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program at the end of February than on Oct. 1. That number has surely grown by now, and it’s likely to go higher, perhaps dramatically so, by the end of 2014." - I don't get why they would include these numbers in Obamacare and they skew the figures dramatically. But it is probably by now well over half of those they considered to have "enrolled" in the program.
Its likely they included it as an attempt to show a 'bigger' picture' if you will. I'm sure there are several peeps that didn't know/realize that each exchange is individual to the respective state or DC. Or that there were other ways to get HI, which these numbers seem to try to show.
Pablo wrote:
We don't know how many have paid a premium yet (kind of important to know) and how many already had insurance (or lost it like my wife even though we were told if we liked it we could keep it, maybe another reason I'm skeptical with anything the WH says/reports). The 8 million is a hollow number to me until we know what it means.
Agreed. There's lots of stuff we don't know yet and apparently may not know for some time; even then the numbers/stats/results will be used as a political ping-pong for decades to come.

_________________
Quote:
Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right....


April 21st, 2014, 2:01 pm
Profile
Online
Player of the Year - Defense

Joined: September 13th, 2007, 12:43 pm
Posts: 2700
Post Re: Beyond 8 million: Obamacare math
There's only two numbers that really matter:

1) How many people are still uninsured in this country
2) The dollar figure Americans spend on health care


April 21st, 2014, 2:13 pm
Profile
Modmin Dude
User avatar

Joined: December 31st, 2004, 9:55 am
Posts: 12141
Post Re: Beyond 8 million: Obamacare math
Blueskies wrote:
There's only two numbers that really matter:

1) How many people are still uninsured in this country
2) The dollar figure Americans spend on health care
Care to expand on this?
For #1, unless the US goes to a single-payer type system I don't see how we could insure 100% of Americans. Also keep in mind that the current number of uninsured would be considerably lower if all states had chosen to expand Medicaid.

_________________
Quote:
Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right....


April 21st, 2014, 2:56 pm
Profile
Online
Player of the Year - Defense

Joined: September 13th, 2007, 12:43 pm
Posts: 2700
Post Re: Beyond 8 million: Obamacare math
The overarching goal of Obamacare wasn't to get people to use the exchanges -- the exchanges are merely a mechanism. The end game is to get most, if not all, Americans covered by insurance. If the law is working, the percentage of Americans without insurance should decline (significantly) over time.

The second, and ultimately more important goal, is to lower the cost of health care in this country. Health care is simply too expensive, we spend too much money and don't get enough to show for it.

I think this second goal could be accomplished much more effectively by getting the government out of healthcare. But Obamacare is intended to lower health care cost by using a system of cost-pooling, more preventive care measures, etc.


April 21st, 2014, 3:08 pm
Profile
Modmin Dude
User avatar

Joined: December 31st, 2004, 9:55 am
Posts: 12141
Post Re: Beyond 8 million: Obamacare math
Blueskies wrote:
The overarching goal of Obamacare wasn't to get people to use the exchanges -- the exchanges are merely a mechanism. The end game is to get most, if not all, Americans covered by insurance. If the law is working, the percentage of Americans without insurance should decline (significantly) over time.

The second, and ultimately more important goal, is to lower the cost of health care in this country. Health care is simply too expensive, we spend too much money and don't get enough to show for it.

I think this second goal could be accomplished much more effectively by getting the government out of healthcare. But Obamacare is intended to lower health care cost by using a system of cost-pooling, more preventive care measures, etc.
Got it, thx for explaining further and I agree those are the important numbers, but question tho could be how long do we wait for them and are they trustworthy?

_________________
Quote:
Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right....


April 21st, 2014, 3:32 pm
Profile
QB Coach
User avatar

Joined: October 26th, 2005, 11:48 pm
Posts: 3039
Location: Elkhart, In.
Post Re: Beyond 8 million: Obamacare math
What I don't understand is why is this a celebration? It's not as if we had a choice in the matter and 8 million people CHOSE Obamacare. This destructive legislation was forced upon the American public, and the results of it aren't fully known by those who supported it, including Congress. Not to mention that it changes according to the whims of the President, even though there are guidelines that MUST be followed according to the Constitution, not Executive Order.

In fact, why isn't the media calling the government out on both of these? Loudly I might add?

_________________
2 Chronicles 10:14, "if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land."


April 22nd, 2014, 9:12 am
Profile
Modmin Dude
User avatar

Joined: December 31st, 2004, 9:55 am
Posts: 12141
Post Re: Beyond 8 million: Obamacare math
WarEr4Christ wrote:
What I don't understand is why is this a celebration?
Who said its a celebration? I certainly didn't get that impression from the article. If you're referring to the Dems, then of course they're gong to celebrate; is ti really any different than Bush and the Repubs 'celebrating' Mission Accomplished or an unpaid for Medicare Part D or tax cuts during a time of war?

Politicians can't seem to help themselves when it comes to 'spiking the football'; one would think they would learn at some point lol

_________________
Quote:
Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right....


April 22nd, 2014, 10:00 am
Profile
QB Coach
User avatar

Joined: October 26th, 2005, 11:48 pm
Posts: 3039
Location: Elkhart, In.
Post Re: Beyond 8 million: Obamacare math
Yeah, I wasn't pulling the celebration from the article, more along the lines of the dictator in chief. I still don't understand why the "media" won't call him out on it, or why the public is not allowed to hold them (the media) accountable for their propaganda pushing....

_________________
2 Chronicles 10:14, "if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land."


April 22nd, 2014, 10:50 am
Profile
Modmin Dude
User avatar

Joined: December 31st, 2004, 9:55 am
Posts: 12141
Post Re: Beyond 8 million: Obamacare math
WarEr4Christ wrote:
Yeah, I wasn't pulling the celebration from the article, more along the lines of the dictator in chief
Stay classy
WarEr4Christ wrote:
or why the public is not allowed to hold them (the media) accountable for their propaganda pushing...
Citation/examples please.

_________________
Quote:
Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right....


April 22nd, 2014, 11:26 am
Profile
QB Coach
User avatar

Joined: October 26th, 2005, 11:48 pm
Posts: 3039
Location: Elkhart, In.
Post Re: Beyond 8 million: Obamacare math
Come on Wags, do you mean to tell me that a President that is circumventing the Constitutional process, especially in regards to a law that is set in "stone" by changing the law via Executive Order, which can not be done, is not being a dictator? According to the rules of the Constitution, only Congress can change a law that has been signed into law by the President.

As for staying classy, I'm following the lead of many others, so say what you will.


As for the media, the only evidence you need to see is the lack of interest, or information given by any main stream media. They will report the spiking of the football for the 8 million, but will not follow it up with the fact that no one has a choice in the matter. There's no digging needed, just that one would pay attention to what's not being said.

_________________
2 Chronicles 10:14, "if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land."


April 22nd, 2014, 12:36 pm
Profile
Modmin Dude
User avatar

Joined: December 31st, 2004, 9:55 am
Posts: 12141
Post Re: Beyond 8 million: Obamacare math
WarEr4Christ wrote:
Come on Wags, do you mean to tell me that a President that is circumventing the Constitutional process, especially in regards to a law that is set in "stone" by changing the law via Executive Order, which can not be done, is not being a dictator? According to the rules of the Constitution, only Congress can change a law that has been signed into law by the President.
If this were in fact true, then one would think that the opposing party would be starting Impeachment proceedings against the President for breaking the law, AFAIK this is not happening. Think about it, if the GOP couldn't wait to impeach Clinton because he lied under oath, what is to stop them from impeaching Obama for doing more heinous crimes?
WarEr4Christ wrote:
As for the media, the only evidence you need to see is the lack of interest, or information given by any main stream media. They will report the spiking of the football for the 8 million, but will not follow it up with the fact that no one has a choice in the matter. There's no digging needed, just that one would pay attention to what's not being said.
With respect, that is completely different than:
Quote:
public is not allowed to hold them (the media) accountable for their propaganda pushing.
The public is certainly allowed, heck the Tea Party has been doing it since its passage.

_________________
Quote:
Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right....


April 22nd, 2014, 1:03 pm
Profile
QB Coach
User avatar

Joined: October 26th, 2005, 11:48 pm
Posts: 3039
Location: Elkhart, In.
Post Re: Beyond 8 million: Obamacare math
But Wags, you have a Republican establishment that is in cohoots with the administration. I can not remember where I saw the report, and I've tried to find it since, but a former Congressional lawyer actually read the ACA and released detailed information showing that the ACA was an actual transfer of power. The Congress gave their power to the President, therefore violating the checks and balances. IF this report are true, and I'm sorry I can't produce it, then we no longer have a democracy, we have a king portraying that we have a democracy.

No one is taking the Tea Party seriously because of the repeated defamation attacks. The Main Stream media hasn't really done much other than tow the company line, and that's sad. At the time of the GOP with Clinton, you had a completely different society, culture, and mentality. The Reps we have now in the Pepsi party are not interested in giving up power any more than the current people in the Coke Party are willing to give it up.

To Pablo's argument, I would support a Libertarian Candidate, IF the Libertarian party was more socially conservative in their stance. Freedom comes with price, and yet absolute freedom can result in anarchy, because there are no uniform guidelines for all. That's what the Bill of Rights, and Constitution were supposed to do, but now even those are being called "old and outdated" in order to change the thinking of the culture to promote a doing away of these foundational documents.

_________________
2 Chronicles 10:14, "if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land."


April 22nd, 2014, 1:20 pm
Profile
QB Coach
User avatar

Joined: October 26th, 2005, 11:48 pm
Posts: 3039
Location: Elkhart, In.
Post Re: Beyond 8 million: Obamacare math
I pulled up transfer of power and this is what I got...

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/sus ... ive-branch

http://www.dailypaul.com/300335/obamaca ... r-occurred

FOUND IT: http://12160.info/page/obamacare-is-the ... executive-

_________________
2 Chronicles 10:14, "if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land."


April 22nd, 2014, 1:26 pm
Profile
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic   [ 30 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group.
Designed by STSoftware.