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 Why the Lions will probably miss the playoffs 
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Post Why the Lions will probably miss the playoffs
I think the Lions are going to have a tough time making the playoffs and even 11-5 might not cut it. The loss to Atlanta and the loss of the tiebreaker over Atlanta is just a killer. The Lions' biggest problem is that Chicago and Atlanta have creampuffy schedules the rest of the way.

Here's a rough prediction of competing team's remaining schedules. Two will win their division.

Detroit: 10-6
Fudgepackers (L)
New Orleans (L)
Minnesota (W)
Oakland (W)
San Diego (W)
Fudgepackers (L)

If that plays out, they'll finish 10-6, if they can beat San Diego. If they can steal one from Green Bay or New Orleans they could finish 11-5.

Chicago: 12-4
Oakland (W)
Kansas City (W)
Denver (W)
Seattle (W)
Green Bay (L)
Minnesota (W)

Chicago is really starting to look like a good, tough team, and now that they have the hard part of their schedule out of the way, they're poised to go 12-4 or at least 11-5.

Atlanta: 10-6, 11-5, or 12-4
Minnesota (W)
Houston (???)
Carolina (W)
Jacksonville (W)
New Orleans (???)
Tampa Bay (W)

Atlanta has looked like a pretty good team and they should win at least 4 of those games. So, Atlanta should finish at least 10-6, and if Detroit only finishes 10-6, Atlanta would win the wild card tiebreaker.

(What happens exactly if Detroit, Chicago, and Atlanta all finish at 11-5 and Detroit has the tiebreaker over Chicago and Chicago has the tiebreaker over Atlanta and Atlanta has the tiebreaker over Detroit, I don't know. Maybe it would then come down to conference record.)

New Orleans: 11-5 or 12-4
New York Giants (???)
Detroit (W)
Tennessee (W)
Minnesota (W)
Atlanta (???)
Carolina (W)

My guess is that New Orleans will win their division. If not they'll end up at 11-5, replacing Atlanta as a competitor for the wild card.

NY Giants: 9-7 or 10-6
Philly (W)
New Orleans (???)
Green Bay (L)
Dallas (???)
Washington (W)
NY Jets (???)
Dallas (???)

If they don't win their division but finish 9-7 or 10-6.

Dallas: 10-6
Miami (W)
Arizona (W)
NY Giants (???)
Tampa Bay (W)
Philadelphia (???)
NY Giants (???)

If Dallas finishes at 10-6 but loses the division, they should lose the wild card spot to Detroit since we have the tiebreaker.

So, I see it this way. It boils down to a three-way competition between Detroit, Chicago, and the Atlanta/New Orleans division loser. Unfortunately for the Lions, 10-6 probably won't cut it and 11-5 might not be good enough. For the Lions to secure a wild card spot they'll need to go 5-1 over the next 6 games (to finish 12-4) and they'll need to go 4-2 (to finish 11-5) to have a good chance for it. They're going to have to claw, scratch, bite, and fight their way in this year.


Last edited by Growler on November 20th, 2011, 9:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.



November 20th, 2011, 9:50 pm
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Post Re: Why the Lions will probably miss the playoffs
Like the Lions themselves, Im taking this thing one week at a time.

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November 20th, 2011, 9:53 pm
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Post Re: Why the Lions will probably miss the playoffs
Cutler broke the thumb on his throwing hand.

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November 20th, 2011, 11:08 pm
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Post Re: Why the Lions will probably miss the playoffs
With Cutler expected to miss 6-8 weeks, I think it really changes the landscape of what may have been expected from the Bears for the rest of the season; especially against Oakland, and possibly against Seattle and Denver as well.


November 20th, 2011, 11:34 pm
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Post Re: Why the Lions will probably miss the playoffs
The lesson here: things can change on a dime in the NFL. It's foolish to project out several weeks, let alone the rest of the season.

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November 21st, 2011, 12:08 am
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Post Re: Why the Lions will probably miss the playoffs
thelomasbrowns wrote:
The lesson here: things can change on a dime in the NFL. It's foolish to project out several weeks, let alone the rest of the season.

you wouldnt be talking about this foolish thread would you?

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November 21st, 2011, 12:17 am
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Post Re: Why the Lions will probably miss the playoffs
Killwill25 wrote:
thelomasbrowns wrote:
The lesson here: things can change on a dime in the NFL. It's foolish to project out several weeks, let alone the rest of the season.

you wouldnt be talking about this foolish thread would you?


:-"

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November 21st, 2011, 12:36 am
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Post Re: Why the Lions will probably miss the playoffs
thelomasbrowns wrote:
Cutler broke the thumb on his throwing hand.


Oh, wow. I watched the Bears-Chargers game and was unaware of it. That changes things.

Yes, it's a silly thread, but the value is in pointing out the competing teams' remaining schedules. I hope my concern is overblown. I think we'd all feel a whole lot better about their chances if they beat the Packers on Thursday.


November 21st, 2011, 12:47 am
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Post Re: Why the Lions will probably miss the playoffs
Growler wrote:
thelomasbrowns wrote:
Cutler broke the thumb on his throwing hand.


Oh, wow. I watched the Bears-Chargers game and was unaware of it. That changes things.

Yes, it's a silly thread, but the value is in pointing out the competing teams' remaining schedules. I hope my concern is overblown. I think we'd all feel a whole lot better about their chances if they beat the Packers on Thursday.


No worries--I know it's fun to predict this kind of thing and it's easy to expect that our Lions will let us down. Let's hope they prove us cynical old bastards wrong.

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November 21st, 2011, 1:03 am
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Post Re: Why the Lions will probably miss the playoffs
If they finish 10-6 or 11-5 and don 't make the playoffs, they will not have let us down. Not at all. They just will have failed to make the playoffs in a conference with a number of above 10-6 teams.


November 21st, 2011, 2:36 am
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Post Re: Why the Lions will probably miss the playoffs
Growler wrote:
If they finish 10-6 or 11-5 and don 't make the playoffs, they will not have let us down. Not at all. They just will have failed to make the playoffs in a conference with a number of above 10-6 teams.


meanwhile in the AFC West......it's entirely possible they will be sending a 7-9 team to the playoffs...sigh

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November 25th, 2011, 5:27 pm
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Post Re: Why the Lions will probably miss the playoffs
WestCoastLionsFan wrote:
With Cutler expected to miss 6-8 weeks, I think it really changes the landscape of what may have been expected from the Bears for the rest of the season; especially against Oakland, and possibly against Seattle and Denver as well.


The Bears do not need Cutler to beat these weak teams, they have a very good running game and a QB that did not do that bad against the Packers in the playoffs last year when Cutler went out, they have a very good defense also and oh don't forget they have Hester if you need a quick TD, I do not see the Bears missing a beat in the regular season. If they make the playoffs that is a different story, they are a step below the elite teams.


November 26th, 2011, 2:18 am
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Post Re: Why the Lions will probably miss the playoffs
georgechuvalo wrote:
WestCoastLionsFan wrote:
With Cutler expected to miss 6-8 weeks, I think it really changes the landscape of what may have been expected from the Bears for the rest of the season; especially against Oakland, and possibly against Seattle and Denver as well.


The Bears do not need Cutler to beat these weak teams, they have a very good running game and a QB that did not do that bad against the Packers in the playoffs last year when Cutler went out, they have a very good defense also and oh don't forget they have Hester if you need a quick TD, I do not see the Bears missing a beat in the regular season. If they make the playoffs that is a different story, they are a step below the elite teams.


I think you are overstating the ability of Caleb Hanie, and understating the value of Cutler to the offense. Just because the teams the Bears are facing may not be all that great, it doesn't mean that their not going to change their defensive gameplans now. In fact, that's exactly what will happen. They can stack 8 or 9 guys in the box to stop Forte, and force the Bears to try and beat them with Hanie throwing the ball. And the Bears offensive line is just not good, and Hanie isn't used to the pressure. Look for blitzing galore from the opposition, and expect that the Bears are going to be fighting in these games more than you'd expect.

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November 26th, 2011, 10:59 am
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Post Re: Why the Lions will probably miss the playoffs
Dallas will win the East
Green Bay the north
San Fran the West
New Orleans the South

WC

Atlanta
?????????

I hope the ?????? are the Lions.

I'm counting on the bears to slide without their QB
Giants to lose to Dallas 2 times and N.O. Monday night and to GB

Detroit getting to 10 wins is the key 10 will get them in.

Frok

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November 27th, 2011, 6:04 pm
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Post Re: Why the Lions will probably miss the playoffs
ESPN.com wrote:
November, 28, 2011 / 7:20 AM ET

BBAO: Playoff scenarios and draft position

By Kevin Seifert

We're Black and Blue All Over:

Sunday's action brought us two important turns here in the NFC North.

First, the Detroit Lions took a hit in the NFC playoff standings and would not qualify if the season ended today. Second, the Minnesota Vikings "improved" their potential draft position to the No. 2 overall spot with five weeks remaining in the season. Hooray and bully for both!

In all seriousness, here is how it breaks down:

On Monday morning, four NFC teams are tied with 7-4 records. As ESPN.com's NFC playoff standings show, the Dallas Cowboys are the NFC East leaders at the moment. The other three teams -- the Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcons and Lions -- are tied for the two wild-card positions. Based on the NFL's tiebreaker procedure for three or more teams, the Bears would eliminate the Lions based on a better record against common opponents. Further, the Bears would have the No. 5 seed because of their head-to-head Week 1 victory over the Falcons, who would be the No. 6 seed in that scenario.
As the ESPN.com Playoff Machine shows, the status of neither the Lions nor the Bears will be impacted (for now) by the results of Monday night's game between the New York Giants and New Orleans Saints. But because the Giants would be 7-4 with a victory, Bears and Lions fans should probably be rooting for the Saints.

The 2-9 Vikings, meanwhile, hold the No. 2 spot in the draft for the moment over the 2-9 St. Louis Rams because of a weaker strength of schedule. We'll keep you updated weekly on their draft status.

I realize both sets of these projections could change dramatically over the next five weeks. But all we can do now is look at the most updated information we have. With that, let's take a quick spin around the division:

•Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Hanie after throwing three interceptions in his first NFL start, via Melissa Isaacson of ESPNChicago.com: "Hopefully, [I'll be] a lot better [next week]. The guys played great up front; Matt [Forte] and Marion [Barber] ran the ball really well and they fought really hard. I feel a little more comfortable now. It's bad we had to lose because of some turnovers. I'm sure the defensive guys will say, 'We should've stopped them,' but if we don't have the turnovers, we're in great position right there. Hopefully next week it will clean up and I'm sure it will."
•Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz should share in the blame for a 25-20 loss to the Oakland Raiders, writes David Haugh of the Chicago Tribune.
•The Bears had everything but a decent quarterback Sunday, according to the Tribune's Dan Pompei.
•Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher, via Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com: "[Hanie] did a good job. He threw a couple picks, but that's going to happen. The tipped ball was a nice play by them. He'll get better, and I didn't think he did a bad job today. He kept us in the game. If we play better defense we win the game. We were in the game late, but just did not make enough plays on defense."
•Bears receiver Johnny Knox did his best to help out Hanie, writes Mark Potash of the Chicago Sun-Times.
•Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com on the Vikings' ninth loss of the season: "Somebody will have to take the fall for what could end up the worst season in Vikings history, even if plenty of people within the organization saw it coming."
•Coach Leslie Frazier was accurate when he took the blame for the loss, writes Tom Powers of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
•Jim Souhan of the Star Tribune praises receiver/running back/returner Percy Harvin for a great afternoon.
•The Green Bay Packers finished last Thursday's game with two reserve players in at inside linebackers. Kareem Copeland of the Green Bay Press-Gazette reviews the situation.
•Packers cornerback Tramon Williams appears to have made it back to his old style of play after being hampered earlier this season by a shoulder injury, writes Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com.
•Lori Nickel of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel profiles an unknown member of the Packers' championship program.
•You should also check out Nickel's story on how Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers motivates his teammates.
•There has been some fan and media overreaction to the ejection of Detroit Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, according to Philip Zaroo of Mlive.com.
•Lions nickelback Aaron Berry might be pressed into starter's duty this week, notes Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
•Lions players haven't turned on Suh, according to Chris McCosky of the Detroit News.



As of now the Lions are outside looking in. That's going to be tough to overcome unless this team gets back on track right away!

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November 28th, 2011, 10:40 am
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