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 Wild Card Permutations 
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3rd Round Selection

Joined: October 19th, 2005, 1:24 pm
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Location: Nottingham, England
Post Wild Card Permutations
Ok so I just spent ages looking at tie breaks, schedules and the like only to hit post and have it all disappear. So here's the abridged version from memory with plenty of the detail missing. I'll update this next Monday. All thoughts/corrections welcome.

In the hunt (brackets gives best possible finish for second or third place in division)

North - Lions (11-5), Bears (10-6)
South - Falcons (11-5)*
East - Giants or Cowboys (both 9-7)
West - Seahawks or Cardinals (both 9-7)

*Technically, an 11-5 Falcons could finish ahead of a 10-6 Saints if the Falcons win their remaining 3 and the Saints lose theirs. This makes no difference to what happens with the Lions, so I've ignored it for the below.

Lions go 11-5

We make the playoffs as the 5th or 6th seed (only a second placed team from the NFC South can match us),

Lions go 10-6

We make the playoffs if:

1. Atlanta lose 2 or more out of 3;

2. the Bears lose 1 or more out of 3; or

3. the Bears win all 3 but one of our wins is against the Packers (we win the tie break with a 10-6 Bears if we beat the Packers, we lose it if we lose to the Packers).

Lions go 9-7

If the Bears win their next 3, they finish ahead of us. If they only win 1, we finish ahead.

The tie break with the Bears comes down to:

1. if the Bears' 2 wins are against MIN and GB, they win the tie break (their divisional record is better); or

2. if the Bears win 1 against GB or MIN and we beat GB, we win the tie break (divisional record is tied, our common opponent record is better).

If we finish ahead of the Bears (either on games or tie breaks) we make the playoffs if:

1. we don't tie with Seatle (we always lose a tiebreak with Seatle);

2. we don't tie with Arizona unless we beat the Packers (we always lose a tie with Arizona unless we beat the Packers, which ties us up on conference opponents and gives us the edge on common opponents); and

3. we don't tie with the Giants unless we beat the Packers (we always lose a tie with Giants unless we beat the Packers, for the same reasons as with Arizona).

(NB: Dallas are not a factor because: (i) if its just them, we win on head to head; (ii) if it is them plus Seatle, we lose anyway (we always lose if Seatle are involved); (iii) if it is them plus Arizona, they drop out because they have lost to both us and Arizona and then it comes down to whether we have beaten the Packers; (iv) them plus the Giants is impossible (divisional ties are settled first, with the winner "advancing" to the wild card tie break))

If we finish behind the Bears we make the playoffs if the above happens and Atlanta lose their remaining 3 games.

Lions finish 8-8

We are almost certainly not in the playoffs. I can't be bothered to work this one out, though.

Random thoughts on the above

The Green Bay game is crucial. If we beat them, we've got a great shot of the play offs almost regardless of what happens in the other 2 games. Winning that game gives us a great chance of winning tie breaks against Chicago, Arizona and the Giants. In order of preference for how we finish:

11-5 - playoffs baby;
10-6 (W vs GB) - playoffs baby;
10-6 (L vs GB) - hope the Bears lose 1 against anyone or Atlanta loses 2 - likely that one of these happens
9-7 (W vs GB) - hope the Bears lose one against GB or MIN and that Seatle doesn't go on a miracle run - good chance this happens
9-7 (L vs GB) - hope the Bears lose two, Seatle and Arizona don't go on a miracle run and that Dallas are the second placed team in the East or the Giants have a disaster end of season run - unlikely to happen but still a chance


December 12th, 2011, 10:35 am
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QB Coach

Joined: January 13th, 2006, 4:18 am
Posts: 3219
Location: Maryland
Post Re: Wild Card Permutations
Atlanta coming back against Carolina hurt us a bit. I think they'll go 2-1 in games against Jax, NO and Tampa and finish 10-6. I had them at 9-7 but that was with a predicted loss to Carolina. Chicago could go anywhere from 2-1 to 0-3. I think they beat Minny and lose to GB. The Seattle game is a toss up. I think both NY and Dallas will end up 9-7 so it depends on tie break who wins the division. I guess I'm rooting for NY since we hold the Wild Card edge over Dallas.

If we just handle our business we won't have to worry about all this, but it's not an easy road. Traveling to the West Coast to face Oakland and then everyone having a short week getting SD in here will be tough. If we find a way to go 2-1 we get in. At 1-2 it'll come down to a lot of other factors.

I think we have a decent shot at unseating anybody in the wild card round. Going to GB in the second round would suck. Lets hope somehow we get the 5 seed and we win out and the 6th seed wins out so we get a home Championship game!! (and yes I know I'm talking crazy)


December 12th, 2011, 10:52 am
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Joined: May 7th, 2005, 3:25 pm
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Post Re: Wild Card Permutations
inheritedlionsfan wrote:
(and yes I know I'm talking crazy)


And crazier things have happened before.


December 12th, 2011, 12:31 pm
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Fired Head Coach (0-16 record)
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Joined: April 5th, 2007, 5:51 pm
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Post Re: Wild Card Permutations
BillySims wrote:
inheritedlionsfan wrote:
(and yes I know I'm talking crazy)


And crazier things have happened before.


See Marion Barber handing the Victory to Tebow and CO last night when the game was over. Romos bad hold, etc.


December 12th, 2011, 1:25 pm
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3rd Round Selection

Joined: October 19th, 2005, 1:24 pm
Posts: 1169
Location: Nottingham, England
Post Re: Wild Card Permutations
Well this got simple quick!

Great results for the Lions this past weekend leaves them needing:

1. to win one (or more) of their next two; or

2. if they lose both, for each of Chicago, Arizona and Seatle to lose one of their next two (one of Arizona and Seatle are guaranteed to do this, as they meet each other).

The GB loss and SF win was also great news - GB go into the Chicago game with something to still play for, so will play them hard and hopefully knock the Bears out of the wild card hunt. They'll then go into the game against the Lions with nothing to play for (home field locked up, no chance of the perfect season) and a banged up team.

First winning season in my entire history as a Lions fan - awesome! :arrow:


December 20th, 2011, 9:56 am
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Post Re: Wild Card Permutations
UK Lion wrote:
Well this got simple quick!

Great results for the Lions this past weekend leaves them needing:

1. to win one (or more) of their next two; or

2. if they lose both, for each of Chicago, Arizona and Seatle to lose one of their next two (one of Arizona and Seatle are guaranteed to do this, as they meet each other).

The GB loss and SF win was also great news - GB go into the Chicago game with something to still play for, so will play them hard and hopefully knock the Bears out of the wild card hunt. They'll then go into the game against the Lions with nothing to play for (home field locked up, no chance of the perfect season) and a banged up team.

First winning season in my entire history as a Lions fan - awesome! :arrow:


Act like you have been there before. LOL.

I have seen several winning seasons. All I want for Christmas is 4 post season wins. That's all I want. Santa should have no problem delivering that request. Right?


December 20th, 2011, 9:39 pm
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Play by Play Announcer - Al Michaels

Joined: October 15th, 2005, 9:00 am
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Location: Greensboro, NC
Post Re: Wild Card Permutations
AZ is the team to watch this week. Chicago and Seattle should both lose (to GB and SF), while AZ has Cincy. Go Lions, go Bengals!

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December 20th, 2011, 10:57 pm
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