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 Last offseason, why didn't the Lions do this? 
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Post Re: Last offseason, why didn't the Lions do this?
m2karateman wrote:
BillySims wrote:
I can think of 1 really good reason to give Avril a long term deal right now. If he has another 10+ sack season, his price will shoot much higher than if we signed him this off season. And you simply won't be able to justify trading him.


So for one good season in the past you want to pay him big money for the next four to five years in fear that he may repeat what he did in 2011?

And if he doesn't?

Big contracts should be given to proven high level producers on the field. One season, at least to me, isn't proof that he's worth that much of an investment. If he repeats in 2012, the cost per season won't be that much greater next off-season. But if he fails to meet the expectations, the Lions have just thrown away millions.

In four seasons he's racked up 30 sacks in 57 games played. That's just over half a sack per game. He has gotten progressively better, so I will give him that much credit. But I just don't see the outstanding production from him that would be worth a contract that meets or exceeds $45M or more.

If Cliff thinks he's that great, he should sign the tender and play for the $10.6M and hope for the big payday next year. If the Lions think he's worth it, they'd have paid him already. Obviously neither party really believes he's an elite level talent, and as such he should not be paid at that level.


You summed it up great. At this point I doubt they'll offer him a long-term deal, and if he doesn't want to be tagged, trade him for a 1st round pick or a cornerback who could start immediately and nothing less.

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July 16th, 2012, 4:15 pm
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Post Re: Last offseason, why didn't the Lions do this?
mwill2 wrote:
Lions' cap space isn't too bad this year--it's 2013 that looks dicey. That probably has a lot to do with Avril's situation--the Lions are going to have to make some tough decisions in 2013 so they need to be thinking NOW about which players really need to be on the 2013 roster. This is why I doubt a long-term deal is reached today. They'll force Avril to prove in 2012 that he's an integral part of the 2013 team.

There are some major risks to this strategy--without a long-term deal for Avril today, the Lions will be in this exact same situation next year. And for those who think that Avril's production can be easily replaced by Willie Young or LoJack, what do you think will happen with those contracts a year from now? If they do indeed produce, neither Young nor Jackson is under contract for 2013, so those guys will be asking for the same kind of money Avril is asking for. The Lions might have to use the franchise tag on a DE yet again!



MWill - if we pay Avril under the franchise tag we will get to see what Willie has to offer, but keep him buried down the depth chart, hamper his production, keep him to a manageable 6.5 sacks, and sign him long-term (3-5 years, relatively cheap $2.5-4.5 per). I'm not worried about figuring out how to pay Willie Young.

Billy, I couldn't disagree with you more. Avril wants 10 sack per year money now. If he gets his 10 sacks I think his price remains relatively unchanged.


July 16th, 2012, 4:16 pm
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Post Re: Last offseason, why didn't the Lions do this?
UPDATE: The Lions' final offer to Avril was $30 million over three years, including $20 million guaranteed, two sources with knowledge of the situation told Breer.

If he doesn't agree to that, he's gone. I'm sure Schwartz won't have him holding out.

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July 16th, 2012, 4:57 pm
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Post Re: Last offseason, why didn't the Lions do this?
Shotty wrote:
UPDATE: The Lions' final offer to Avril was $30 million over three years, including $20 million guaranteed, two sources with knowledge of the situation told Breer.

If he doesn't agree to that, he's gone. I'm sure Schwartz won't have him holding out.


That's ridiculous, and over-priced.


July 16th, 2012, 5:04 pm
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Post Re: Last offseason, why didn't the Lions do this?
wjb21ndtown wrote:
Shotty wrote:
UPDATE: The Lions' final offer to Avril was $30 million over three years, including $20 million guaranteed, two sources with knowledge of the situation told Breer.

If he doesn't agree to that, he's gone. I'm sure Schwartz won't have him holding out.


That's ridiculous, and over-priced.


And on top of those two, he's probably not going to agree to it. I saw this coming. As I've been saying, let him go. We could use that money on much more important things, and there MUST be at least one team willing to give up much more than he's worth for him.

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July 16th, 2012, 5:06 pm
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Post Re: Last offseason, why didn't the Lions do this?
Shotty wrote:
wjb21ndtown wrote:
Shotty wrote:
UPDATE: The Lions' final offer to Avril was $30 million over three years, including $20 million guaranteed, two sources with knowledge of the situation told Breer.

If he doesn't agree to that, he's gone. I'm sure Schwartz won't have him holding out.


That's ridiculous, and over-priced.


And on top of those two, he's probably not going to agree to it. I saw this coming.



As did I, which is why I wanted him gone before the draft.

I like Avril, we just can't afford him. We could have signed Tracy Porter, Michael Bush, and the 1st or 2nd round player player that we would have drafted after trading him for what he's going to cost.

Porter, Bush, + 2nd round pick > than Avril

And that's the bottom line.


July 16th, 2012, 5:08 pm
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Post Re: Last offseason, why didn't the Lions do this?
wjb21ndtown wrote:
Shotty wrote:
wjb21ndtown wrote:
Shotty wrote:
UPDATE: The Lions' final offer to Avril was $30 million over three years, including $20 million guaranteed, two sources with knowledge of the situation told Breer.

If he doesn't agree to that, he's gone. I'm sure Schwartz won't have him holding out.


That's ridiculous, and over-priced.


And on top of those two, he's probably not going to agree to it. I saw this coming.



As did I, which is why I wanted him gone before the draft.

I like Avril, we just can't afford him. We could have signed Tracy Porter, Michael Bush, and the 1st or 2nd round player player that we would have drafted after trading him for what he's going to cost.

Porter, Bush, + 2nd round pick > than Avril

And that's the bottom line.


Exactly. I'm sure SOMEONE could step in and take his spot and the D-line would still look great with Fairley, Suh, and KVB. Getting those two and a early pick would've been great, but the Lions probably didn't know he would take this long and still ask for ridiculous money. The Patriots are the team most likely still wanting a DE, and they don't value draft picks much, so I wouldn't be surprised if they offered a 1st round pick for him, or even more.

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July 16th, 2012, 5:12 pm
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Post Re: Last offseason, why didn't the Lions do this?
Regarding Willie Young specifically, he'll be easy because he's an RFA next year. He'll likely get a 1-yr RFA deal. However, if one reads this entire thread (and the other threads regarding Avril), it's been repeatedly stated that Avril's production can be "easily replaced." I'm simply stating that if another player steps in and performs like Avril did last year (doesn't matter who it is), the Lions will be facing another contract situation. When players perform, they cash in.

Ultimately, we should want someone (Avril or whomever) to have a great season in 2012 but we should also fully expect that player to demand big bucks in 2013 and beyond.

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July 16th, 2012, 5:22 pm
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Post Re: Last offseason, why didn't the Lions do this?
mwill2 wrote:
Regarding Willie Young specifically, he'll be easy because he's an RFA next year. He'll likely get a 1-yr RFA deal. However, if one reads this entire thread (and the other threads regarding Avril), it's been repeatedly stated that Avril's production can be "easily replaced." I'm simply stating that if another player steps in and performs like Avril did last year (doesn't matter who it is), the Lions will be facing another contract situation. When players perform, they cash in.

Ultimately, we should want someone (Avril or whomever) to have a great season in 2012 but we should also fully expect that player to demand big bucks in 2013 and beyond.



If I were the Lions I would try to extend Willie to a three to five year deal now. We don't have to worry about him "breaking out" if he's stuck behind Avril on the depth chart, but if he does start I bet he gets at least 8 sacks and then demands bigger money. If we sign him to a three to five now for $2.5-4.5 per, I think we'd be looking good for a few years on our DL.


July 16th, 2012, 5:29 pm
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Post Re: Last offseason, why didn't the Lions do this?
are we still talking about the willie young that had 7 tackles and 1 sack in his final 9 games of last season? the guy that had less solo tackles (9) all season than avril had sacks (11)? such a no brainer, maybe mayhew should go get his head examined. why woud mayhew want the younger player with 10x more career sacks? in fact why not trade avril for turk mcbride, and dang it he could ve had jason hunter signed for 700k. if they both hit there career highs of 5 sacks then thats pretty darn close isnt it? wouldnt we all love to be 6-10 again?


July 17th, 2012, 3:20 am
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Post Re: Last offseason, why didn't the Lions do this?
The Legend wrote:
are we still talking about the willie young that had 7 tackles and 1 sack in his final 9 games of last season? the guy that had less solo tackles (9) all season than avril had sacks (11)? such a no brainer, maybe mayhew should go get his head examined. why woud mayhew want the younger player with 10x more career sacks? in fact why not trade avril for turk mcbride, and dang it he could ve had jason hunter signed for 700k. if they both hit there career highs of 5 sacks then thats pretty darn close isnt it? wouldnt we all love to be 6-10 again?


Snap out of it Legend. Avril isn't the reason we went 10-6, and you damn well know it. Willie Young has shown the ability to get to the quarterback. He may not be Cliff Avril, but at the same time he didn't snub the Lions on a $10M per year deal either. Avril has over-valued himself, plain and simple. Avril got the bulk of the playing time, and Young was used in certain packages on a limited basis. That $10.6M the Lions will end up paying Avril could have been better used on other players, as wjb has pointed out.

I was in favor of the Lions trading Avril as well. Not because I didn't think he had talent, but because his market value could have brought us a pretty good pick (second rounder, at the worst) and the money he is getting is more than he's worth to this team.

So if you're such a huge Avril fan, you better watch him this season closely. Because it's the last time you'll see him in Honolulu Blue and Silver. He's as good as gone in 2013. And the sad part is, the Lions won't get anything in return. I don't even think they'll franchise him next year. He's just not worth that much money.

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July 17th, 2012, 8:16 am
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Post Re: Last offseason, why didn't the Lions do this?
It seems true that Avril might be overpricing himself (especially if the reported contract offer is true) but these contract demands actually make it impossible to trade him. Avril received the non-exclusive tag, which means he had the right to negotiate a deal with another team and nothing happened. We can talk all we want about how trading him would have been a good idea but it was never an option. The Lions had only two choices: using the franchise tag or letting Avril walk as an UFA.

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July 17th, 2012, 9:26 am
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Post Re: Last offseason, why didn't the Lions do this?
wjb21ndtown wrote:
And that's the bottom line.




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July 17th, 2012, 9:54 am
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Post Re: Last offseason, why didn't the Lions do this?
m2k - this is not a black and white situation. i totally understand why the long term contract did not happen. mayhew probably offerred about as much as he could and probably felt uncomfortable with how little flexibility that left him with going into next season. still from avril's perspective it wasnt a strong offer, it was a very lukewarm one. yes the 10mill/year is fair but its less than what avril would get per year on the franchise tag and its extremely unlikely whoever signs him next year wont give him at least 9.4 million guaranteed bc the Lions only offerred 20 mill guaranteed but probably the biggest problem was that 3 years no matter how you look at it was way too short compared to what comparable ends get as far as length of the deal. i wouldnt consider rejecting this offer a snub by avril - mayhew knows he cant pay avril his market value right now and as you said maybe will not ever be able to pay it. how avril and others perform this year will ultimately make that decision for mayhew easier. if the cheaper DEs like Young/Jackson/Lewis get an opportunity and make the most of it but the young LBs and corners fall on there faces then I think Avril walks and Mayhew spends to patch the other positions. If the reserve DEs show more durability issues but lets say Greenwood and Whitehead look like starters at CB and LB then maybe Mayhew can make Avril a better offer.

as for the rise from 0-16 to 2-14 to 6-10 to 10-6 I dont give Avril full credit but there is a growing sentiment on this site that these wins are just magically falling from the skies and have nothing to do with the players. Nate Burleson stabilized the receiving corps and is a team leader offers a consistent performance and effort but nope 4 mill is too much, cut him. Corey Williams had an outstanding 2010 and good 2011 but 5 mill is too much, cut him use Sammie Hill, use the potsmoking drunk driver 320lb er who has a broken lead foot. Kyle VandenBosch has been nothing short of exceptional with tenacity and is productive, changed the entire personality of the defense and had his best season since 2007 but well he gets burned on reverses and draws and lawrence jackson is a lil younger, maybe we should tell him to take less or else. stephen tulloch was the best middle linebacker we ve had since stephen boyd or maybe one of chris claiborne's years but well he s 5'9 and got beat up the two best guards in the NFL in the playoffs, why are we paying him? next season we re going to see the same bs but its going to be about delmas, chris houston, durant, levy, sammie hill, lo jack, etc. cmon if you re going to look at the negatives look at the positives too

You cant just let everyone go unless you have replacements that are proven to be ready otherwise its a roll of the dice. personally Ill be ecstatic if Avril signs his tender because we get him for that one more season and at this point is there a better way to spend the 10.6 million? As KVB or Corey Williams age and Fairley/Suh mature, Avril is the one starter on that DL that is hitting his prime. the philosophy of this defense is beat the pass with passrush and dont worry about the run until its a shortyardage situation. avril is more than a luxury.

finally does anyone really believe wjb would be happy with anything? is michael bush any less injury prone than jahvid best or is he just protected as a backup? he ll also be 32 when his bears deal expires. tracy porter ill give you was one of the better deals of the offseason but would he hold up without a passrush in front of him? remember that saints pass defense didnt hold up in the playoffs vs the 49ers offensive personnel or really at any time all last season. is porter really the answer? id love a 2nd round pick but would we have gotten an immediate 10 sack/yr guy in that round? would any team have even given up a 2nd rder knowing that they d also have to pay 10+ mill for 5 years or so? its easy to write some of these things but its not as much of a slam dunk as it seems on paper. what mayhew has done is keep his starters except for eric wright and has added depth throughout. im happy


July 17th, 2012, 10:10 am
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Post Re: Last offseason, why didn't the Lions do this?
Legend, I understand what you are saying. However, I think the three year offer was something that Avril agreed to. He just wanted more guaranteed money. I'm sorry, but how many players do you know that get a three year deal with the bulk of it guaranteed? Even Brees only got 60% of the face value of his deal guaranteed. Avril got a higher guarantee percentage than Brees.

A three year deal for him is actually a benefit, because when his deal ends he would be considered in his prime, and with some luck and good production could really cash in at that time.

Let's look at things this way. Other teams could have made an offer for Avril, but wouldn't want to give up the two first round picks. Those teams knew that the Lions simply could not match a high offer...anything in excess of $11M per year would have forced the Lions to let him go. But the fact is that other teams, it seems, didn't even try to get the Lions to swing a sign and trade deal. I think if there were other teams seriously interested in Avril, they would have pursued something like that.

While the deal the Lions offered certainly wasn't tremendous, it's what they could do. Avril turning it down shows me one thing. His talk of wanting to stay in Detroit above all other things, and it not being about the money is absolute BS. The Lions offered what they could within the limits of their comfort. This deal not getting done falls ENTIRELY on his shoulders.

Avril is taking a big risk by turning down that offer. An off year, and his market value slides and he's widely viewed as either a one year wonder, inconsistent, or a product of the system. A serious injury and he may not get any contract offer next season. The old saying "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" comes to mind. He had $20M guaranteed, in his hands. He could have likely helped the team to lower their cap number this season and given them one less headache for next season.

He chose to ignore all of that in the hopes that he builds on his 2011 season and increases his market value. It showns extreme confidence in himself, which is a good thing. But it will be interesting to see just how much money he gets offered next season. I doubt the Lions tag him, since it will cost them over $12M for the season if they can't do a deal in 2013. It certainly wouldn't be the first time a player has rolled the dice, and sometimes those players lose.

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Last edited by m2karateman on July 17th, 2012, 2:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.



July 17th, 2012, 1:48 pm
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