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 Ironically - Martz/Mooch least winningest preseason coaches 
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Post Ironically - Martz/Mooch least winningest preseason coaches
http://www.crushthebook.com/nfl-coaches-preseason.html

Throw your regular season NFL handicapping angles out the window. The NFL Preseason is acompletely different game to handicap. While the quality of coaching is very important in the regular season, in the pre-season it's more important to know what the game plan is for each coach. Many coaches don't care if they win or lose, using these games only to evaluate talent. Below we have included each NFL team and their coach's record against the spread in the preseason.

Arizona: Coach - Dennis Green
Preseason Record - 26 ? 20 ? 1 = 56.5% ATS.

Atlanta: Coach - Jim Mora Junior
Preseason Record - 2 ? 2 = 50% ATS.

Baltimore: Coach - Brian Billick
Preseason Record - 14 ? 9 = 60.9% ATS.

Buffalo: Coach - Mike Mularky
Preseason Record - 3 ? 1 = 75% ATS.

Carolina: Coach - John Fox
Preseason Record - 9 ? 2 ? 1 = 81.8% ATS.

Chicago: Coach - Lovie Smith
Preseason Record - 2 ? 2 = 50% ATS.

Cincinnati: Coach - Marvin Lewis
Preseason Record - 3 ? 4 ? 1 = 42.9% ATS.

Cleveland: Coach - Rookie coach
Preseason Record - No Previous Record .

Dallas: Coach - Bill Parcells
Preseason Record - 45 ? 22 ? 2 = 67.2% ATS.

Denver: Coach - Mike Shanahan
Preseason Record - 28 ? 22 ? 2 = 56% ATS.

Detroit: Coach - Steve Mariucci
Preseason Record - 14 ? 21 = 40% ATS.


Green Bay: Coach - Mike Sherman
Preseason Record - 10 ? 9 ? 1 = 52.6% ATS.

Houston: Coach - Dom Capers
Preseason Record - 12 ? 17 ? 1 = 41.4% ATS.

Indianapolis: Coach - Tony Dungy
Preseason Record - 19 ? 16 ? 2 = 54.3% ATS.

Jacksonville: Coach - Jack Del Rio
Preseason Record - 5 ? 3 = 62.5% ATS.

Kansas City: Coach - Dick Vermeil
Preseason Record - 15 ? 13 = 53.6% ATS.

Miami: Coach - Nick Saban
Preseason Record - No Previous Record .

Minnesota: Coach - Mike Tice
Preseason Record - 6 ? 6 = 50% ATS.

New England: Coach - Bill Belichick
Preseason Record - 23 ? 16 ? 2 = 59% ATS.

New Orleans: Coach - Jim Haslett
Preseason Record - 8 ? 11 ? 1 = 42.1% ATS.

NY Giants: Coach - Tom Coughlin
Preseason Record - 18 ? 18 ? 1 = 50% ATS.

NY Jets: Coach - Herm Edwards
Preseason Record - 11 ? 6 = 64.7% ATS.

Oakland: Coach - Norv Turner
Preseason Record - 17 ? 14 ? 1 = 54.8% ATS.

Philadelphia: Coach - Andy Reid
Preseason Record - 11 ? 12 = 47.8% ATS.

Pittsburgh: Coach - Bill Cowher
Preseason Record - 28 ? 28 ? 2 = 50% ATS.

St. Louis: Coach - Mike Martz
Preseason Record - 8 ? 13 = 38.1% ATS.


San Diego: Coach - M. Schottenheimer
Preseason Record - 31 ? 42 = 42.5% ATS.

San Francisco: Coach - Rookie coach
Preseason Record - No Previous Record .

Seattle: Coach - Mike Holmgren
Preseason Record - 27 ? 27 ? 1 = 50% ATS.

Tampa Bay: Coach - Jon Gruden
Preseason Record - 16 ? 13 ? 1 = 55.1% ATS.

Tennessee: Coach - Jeff Fisher
Preseason Record - 20 ? 16 ? 1 = 55.5% ATS.

Washington: Coach - Joe Gibbs
Preseason Record - 29 ? 24 ? 2 = 54.7% ATS.


August 31st, 2005, 2:54 am
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Great find Ferris. What I see in that data set is the divide between the Walsh and Parcells coaching lines. They put a completely different onus on the significance of the preseason and that leads to a different training regimen, which combined produce a different result in the preseason win column-especially when they square off against each other.

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August 31st, 2005, 3:33 am
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This is a good find Ferris!


I saw some stats once a long time ago - and forgive me, I can't remember them exactly; But they looked at preseason win percentages Vs. the chances of making it to the Super Bowl.


Suffice it to say - there is a correlation. I don't remember exactly but I don't think anyone ever made the SB after losing 3 preseason games.

If anyone has that study it would be a great time to share it.

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August 31st, 2005, 7:41 am
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LionFan57 wrote:
This is a good find Ferris!


I saw some stats once a long time ago - and forgive me, I can't remember them exactly; But they looked at preseason win percentages Vs. the chances of making it to the Super Bowl.


Suffice it to say - there is a correlation. I don't remember exactly but I don't think anyone ever made the SB after losing 3 preseason games.

If anyone has that study it would be a great time to share it.

Actually, last year both New England and Philly went 1-3 in the preseason. Look at Indy this year. They're 0-4. Preseason records mean NOTHING. People are reading far too much into the game in my opinion. Yes, our starters looked terrible, but it's still a preseason game and doesn't impact our record in any way. I still say we should reserve judgement until the regular season starts.


August 31st, 2005, 9:20 am
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bphelmin wrote:
I still say we should reserve judgement until the regular season starts.


Not much else we can do :?


August 31st, 2005, 11:19 am
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LionFan57 wrote:
This is a good find Ferris!


I saw some stats once a long time ago - and forgive me, I can't remember them exactly; But they looked at preseason win percentages Vs. the chances of making it to the Super Bowl.



I dont know if this is the study.. but close enough

Quote:
Beware the preseason record
Dave McMahn - Scout.com
August 18, 2005 at 10:08am ET
The Falcons are undefeated! They are 2-0! They are going to win the Super Bowl!

Time Out !!!

Give me a T.O.! (Wait, not that T.O.)

Remember, this is the preseason.

Yes, the Falcons are 2-0 and yes they defeated two quality teams like the Colts and Ravens, but a good preseason does not necessarily make for a great regular season.

The Falcons had a good record last season, but how many of you remember their preseason record? Times up! Atlanta was 2-2 last season. They were even shut out twice, by the Ravens and the Redskins.

Another quiz? What was the Falcons preseason record in the season they reached the Super Bowl? Once again, they were 2-2.

In 2002, The Falcons were 4-0 in the preseason and won the NFC South?. That's good, right? Then again, Atlanta was 4-0 in the preseason in 1990 as well, that season they finished 5-11 and had a 7-game losing streak in the middle of the season.

More proof? Last season the New England Patriots won their third Super Bowl in four seasons. In the preseason, the Patriots finished 1-3. In fact, 15 of 39 or 38.5 % of the eventual Super Bowl Champions had a preseason winning percentage of .500 or worse. Nine of them had losing records, and one of the teams, the Washington Redskins of 1982, had a preseason record of 0-4.

So take the preseason for what it's worth. Hopefully the Falcons won't make many mistakes. Hopefully, they will learn a lot. Hopefully, they will have very little injuries.

Remember for the Falcons, their real season begins Monday night on September 12th. That is when Atlanta will have a rematch with the defending NFC Champions, the Philadelphia Eagles .

Who knows if the Eagles will have a T.O. (Yeah, that one)!


August 31st, 2005, 11:29 am
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If I'm not mistaken, both New England and Carolina went unbeaten in the 2003 pre-season before heading to the Super Bowl. But then again Arizona went undefeated in that preseason as well. The Cardinals finished with a 4-12 record in 2003. To reiterate another post, records mean nothing in pre-season. However, a showing like Monday's is definitely disconcerting. Our top players looked confused, scared, out of place, and definitely not ready to contend with an elite team. And I really don't consider St. Louis to be an elite team.

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August 31st, 2005, 11:43 am
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Here is a piece I wrote last year about the preseason:

http://www.lionbacker.com/index.asp?id= ... on_matters

lionbacker wrote:
Teams that win in August also win in January. Thirty of the thirty-eight Super Bowl champions won half their games or more in the preseason that year. The preseason record for the champions stands at 115-65-2, a good barometer of success.


There is also a table that goes over 11 teams that wen't perfect in the preseason and won the championship (including the 52' Lions)

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August 31st, 2005, 11:59 am
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m2karateman wrote:
However, a showing like Monday's is definitely disconcerting. Our top players looked confused, scared, out of place, and definitely not ready to contend with an elite team. And I really don't consider St. Louis to be an elite team.

I agree. The players did not look good. Maybe I'm just being naively optimistic, but I want to wait and see what happens in the regular season. Maybe the players aren't taking the preseason seriously, so they aren't mentally preparing for the games like the will during the regular season. Thus, they are not sharp and make stupid mistakes (like penalties). I still have hope until it goes in the crapper during the regular season.


August 31st, 2005, 11:59 am
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"Teams that win in August also win in January. Thirty of the thirty-eight Super Bowl champions won half their games or more in the preseason that year. The preseason record for the champions stands at 115-65-2, a good barometer of success."

I think that is an unscientific correlation. In general good teams win because they are better, poor teams lose because they are less good, regardless of the month. If you say 30 of 38 teams with a regular season record of 13-3 were even or better that is not a strong indication at all. Ferris' numbers very strongly suggest that the principal determinant in a team's preseason record is the philosophy of the coach. Whether preseason is meaningful or not is an entirely different question. From a Walsh lineage perspective the "meaning" of preseason is to get the team mentally prepared for the nuances of the complex WCO offense and to keep the players fresh for the long season haul. From a Parcells lineage perspective, getting the team physically and psychologically ready is what is important. Those two philsophies approaching winning in the pre-season in a completely different way. What is more, when they face off against each other the numbers would be multi-reinforcing. Of course, there are other variables at play as well.

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August 31st, 2005, 1:02 pm
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bphelmin wrote:
I agree. The players did not look good. Maybe I'm just being naively optimistic, but I want to wait and see what happens in the regular season. Maybe the players aren't taking the preseason seriously, so they aren't mentally preparing for the games like the will during the regular season. Thus, they are not sharp and make stupid mistakes (like penalties). I still have hope until it goes in the crapper during the regular season.


The problem is, the Lions have been making stupid penalties and stupid mistakes for the past four years during the regular season.
Human beings are creatures of habit. The way you practice is the way you play. I find that statement to be very true. So if the players are 'overlooking' the pre-season games, they are making a big mistake. Pre-season is when they are supposed to be sharpening their 'game skills' and developing their timing versus 'live' opponents. Obviously, the soft manner is which these guys are practicing is carrying over onto the playing field. And there's nothing to keep us from assuming that the same won't happen in regards to the way they are playing in pre-season spilling over into the regular season.

I could care less about the fact that the Lions are 0-3 in pre-season. What I don't like is the way our starters have been playing. Monday was definitely a good barometer for the ill conceived manner in which the coaching staff prepares these players.

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August 31st, 2005, 1:08 pm
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This is the study you must have been talking about Yorick


http://www.protrade.com/insight_auth06_article02.html


Personally I want to say winning friday is of MONUMENTAL importance for a good season


August 31st, 2005, 1:18 pm
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http://football.about.com/cs/superbowl/ ... bowl16.htm

A very interesting peice of history about the last time the superbowl was in Detroit

Two previous 6-10 teams.... they say history repeats itself

Quote:
The Bengals and Niners were unlikely participants considering the lack of fortune by both franchises leading up to the 1981 season. Both clubs were coming off lackluster 6-10 records, and neither was considered to be a serious contender. But both teams fooled the experts as San Francisco posted the best record in the NFL at 13-3, thanks to an influx of new talent, while the Bengals registered a convincing 12-4 record, good enough for best in the AFC.


August 31st, 2005, 1:33 pm
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Ferris wrote:
This is the study you must have been talking about Yorick


http://www.protrade.com/insight_auth06_article02.html


Personally I want to say winning friday is of MONUMENTAL importance for a good season

I know that article seems to say otherwise, but I have to disagree. Friday's game is mostly backup players, so whether we win or not really doesn't matter. The last preseason game is usually the most meaningless of all.


August 31st, 2005, 1:40 pm
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bphelmin wrote:
Ferris wrote:
This is the study you must have been talking about Yorick


http://www.protrade.com/insight_auth06_article02.html


Personally I want to say winning friday is of MONUMENTAL importance for a good season

I know that article seems to say otherwise, but I have to disagree. Friday's game is mostly backup players, so whether we win or not really doesn't matter. The last preseason game is usually the most meaningless of all.


Meaningless for what its worth yes - but statistically important according to the chart they have... 12% of teams that dont win have winning records... 32% of teams that win one game have winning records


August 31st, 2005, 1:54 pm
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