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What happens if Joey is cut, etc...
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Author:  Pablo [ November 17th, 2004, 2:22 pm ]
Post subject:  What happens if Joey is cut, etc...

California Kid wrote:
I was wondering if some of you who know a little more about the team could help me out.Detroit is in a position where it can walk away from Harrington's deal without killing the cap..


First, I've been updating some of the Lions FA information and you can find it by clicking on the Free Agency Button on the home page. I've just started this and its a work in progress, I still need to label the FAs (restricted, unrestricted, etc...) But you can see who is signed for 2005, for how much base salary and for how many more years.

California Kid wrote:
-How big of a cap hit will the Lions take if they cut Harrington in the offseason?


This is a complicated answer but I'll try to keep it simple. Harrington had two bonuses; $10M up front with an additional $3M roster bonus - all of this has been paid.

The $10M is calulated against the cap over 7 years or $1.42M per year. With 4 years left, the cap hit would be $5.7M due to the way the bonus is accelerated when a player is cut.

BUT, if Detroit doesn't cut Joey until after 6/1/05 another year comes off AND the cap hit wouldn't take place until 2006. The cap hit would equal $4.2 for the bonus BUT the Lions would be saving the $4.45 in base salary he is do. So the Lions would save about $250K by my calcs in 2006. That's not to mention the cap space opened up by the removal of Joeys base in the other 2 years when the cap hit doesn't apply - that's how they can go after a FA QB.

In addition, since the league renegotiated contracts with CBS, FOX and ESPN the cap will be going up.

California Kid wrote:
-Isn't McMahon on a one year contract?


Yes, the Lions only signed him to a one-year deal in the offseason.

California Kid wrote:
-Does anyone know the list of QB's who will be FA's next year?


Well two you might not be interested in are Mike McMahon and Rick Mirer.
:lol:

Drew Brees is certainly the hottest name out there right now. He will come at a high price (think about $8M per season) because he is a quality young FA QB which is a rare thing. There will be a bidding war for his services with teams like the Ravens and division rival Packers leading the way.

I haven't dug into the full list of FA QBs for the 2005 season. It hasn't been until recently that I thought it would be something the Lions would have major concerns with given other issues on the team. :wink:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

With everything that I've said and not knowing how the last 7 games will pan out my guess right now is that Harrington will be back, the Lions will look to sign a veteran QB to challenge him for the starting position and the team will use a late round draft pick for the 3rd QB. This speculation can change.

Hope that helps California Kid - glad you joined the LB forum!

Author:  California Kid [ November 17th, 2004, 9:29 pm ]
Post subject: 

Pablo,
Thanks for the post! Great Info there.

Quote:
With everything that I've said and not knowing how the last 7 games will pan out my guess right now is that Harrington will be back, the Lions will look to sign a veteran QB to challenge him for the starting position and the team will use a late round draft pick for the 3rd QB. This speculation can change


That would be my guess as well, and (to play armchair GM for a second) IMO that's the best thing to do as it sits right now. Not that I have anything against McMahon or Mirer. In fact from watching Mirer as a backup for both the 9ers & Raiders (I live in the Bay Area) I would say he's an above average #3 QB that gets slammed more than he deserves. Still I'm guessing that the Lions would like to improve their QB depth next year with a different vet & a different young project.

As far as what FA vet to bring in... I would say that Drew Brees' stock is WAY to high right now. He's definatly picking the right time to go FA when he's finally heating up. I would say (playing armchair GM again) they should pick up a solid backup/journyman FA who may just need a different situation, and would not command such a big price tag.

Anyhow as you pointed out, this is all just speculation until we see how things play out. Thanks again for the info. 8)

Author:  rabbi [ November 17th, 2004, 9:57 pm ]
Post subject: 

Here is a list of all (I think) the FA QBs next year. Sorry about the format, but I haven't mastered copying lists from spreadsheets into the forum. In any case, the first number after their present team is their age and the second is the number of years in the NFL.


Player Team Age Years in NFL
Batch, Charlie Pittsburgh 29 5
Brees, Drew San Diego 25 3
Brunell, Mark Jacksonville 33 10
Chandler, Chris Chicago 38 16
Collins, Kerry New York Giants 31 9
Davey, Rohan New England 25 1
Delhomme, Jake Carolina 29 3
Frerotte, Gus Minnesota 32 10
Griese, Brian Miami 28 5
Hasselbeck, Matt Seattle 28 5
Hutchinson, Chad Dallas 26 2
Jackson, Jarious Denver 26 3
Kitna, Jon Cincinnati 31 7
Pennington, Chad New York Jets 27 3
Stewart, Kordell Chicago 31 9

Author:  California Kid [ November 18th, 2004, 12:13 pm ]
Post subject: 

Thanks rabbi,
I think some of that may be a bit dated, but it's still fun to think about the different names on that list. Actually to be honest I don't know (haven't seen) much about most of those guys.

I'm not one of the people who wants to run Harrington out of town, but I do like the idea of the Lions picking up a FA vet. IMO if Harrington cotinues to strugle someone should be brought in to challange for the starting job. If he's playing well I think the Lions still need to address their depth.

Out of those names Kitna, Collins & Griese look interesting to me. Although Collins and Griese are with different teams now, and I'm betting their FA status has changed. I also don't claim to know what the market value for any of these guys would be.

Author:  sportspig [ November 18th, 2004, 1:16 pm ]
Post subject: 

Great info Pablo and Rabbi. That's why I love this forum!

Author:  Pablo [ November 18th, 2004, 2:05 pm ]
Post subject: 

Rabbi - that looks like the 2004 FA QB list. For 2005 here are some of the FA QBs that should be on the market (I haven't confirmed this yet):

Ty Detmer
Kordell Stewart
Shane Matthews
Kelly Holcomb
Tony Romo
Vinny Testaverde
Mike McMahon
Rick Mirer
Craig Nall
JT Osullivan
Tony Banks
Quinn Gray
Sage Rosenfels
Gus Ferrotte
Shaun Hill
Jim Miller
Jesse Palmer
Quincy Carter
Jeff Blake
Matt Hasselbeck
Jason Garrett
Doug Johnson
Tim Hasselbeck
Drew Brees

There are a lot of names I don't like on this list. Brees will be very expensive but as I pointed out above, there is a possiblity in Detroit. I think Hasselbeck (Matt, not Tim) will resign with the Seahawks so I don't think he is an option. After that, uggh...

Author:  LionsFan4Life [ November 18th, 2004, 2:59 pm ]
Post subject:  IMO

I think we should take a shot at trying to get Kelly Holcomb if he is available. He has played pretty well w/ the Browns. I'd be willing to take a shot on him.

Author:  spiderman [ November 18th, 2004, 3:17 pm ]
Post subject: 

jesse palmer, wasnt he the bachelor? :lol:

tim hasselbeck, didnt he marry one of the survivor girls? :lol:

quincy carter played pretty well last week against the ravens. :roll:

bring back ferrotte, he was on fire when dante went down last year and has played with the lions before. :twisted:

jeff blake has a good arm and can move, i wouldn't mind seeing him be the veteran backup if they want to go with an older guy. :twisted:

kelly holcomb is an interesting choice as LionsFan4Life points out. :wink:

what will happen with the qbs in tampa? it looks like they might be grooming chris simms to be the qb of the future. what is brian griese's status? what will they do with brad johnson?

Author:  rabbi [ November 18th, 2004, 5:40 pm ]
Post subject: 

Pablo wrote:
Rabbi - that looks like the 2004 FA QB list. For 2005 here are some of the FA QBs that should be on the market (I haven't confirmed this yet):

...


Duh!!! My bad!!!

Old timers moment.

What year is this anyhow???

Author:  California Kid [ November 18th, 2004, 10:35 pm ]
Post subject: 

spiderman wrote:
what will happen with the qbs in tampa? it looks like they might be grooming chris simms to be the qb of the future. what is brian griese's status? what will they do with brad johnson?


I hear they're probably going try and restructure Griese, and will most likly have him be their starter. (though that's far from a lock).

Everyone seems to agree that Brad Johnson is as good as gone. I definatly wouldn't mind seeing Johnson come to Detroit at the right price. Let him back up Joey or start, depending on how things pan out, & draft a rookie project (mid/late round of course)...does anyone eles like that senerio? My only problem with it is I'm not sure if it's realistic. Will Johnson still command a high salary? Even if he doesn't, wouldn't he rather go to a team that will start him for sure, or at least one that looks ready to win right away?

I agree Holcomb could be interesting (and hopefully cheap) but all other things being equal I'd rather see them bring Johnson in. Thoughts?

Author:  theAlphaMale [ November 19th, 2004, 12:23 am ]
Post subject: 

Why would the Browns drop Holcomb after dumping Couch?

I would love to see Kordell bursting into tears on the sideline for joy after a great Eddie Drummond return...hell while were at it lets take on some of the other Chicago retreds like Jim Miller, Shane Matthews, and hell let's find Cade M. for giggles too...

Author:  Pablo [ November 19th, 2004, 12:24 am ]
Post subject: 

California Kid wrote:
I agree Holcomb could be interesting (and hopefully cheap) but all other things being equal I'd rather see them bring Johnson in. Thoughts?


Kelly Holcomb is 31 (07/09/1973), his 2004 base salary is $975K. He is a FA after this season. Holcomb has only 11 career starts and has a 62.5% comp % and a career qb rating of 74. His only real action was in 2003 when he had 8 starts.

Brad Johnson is 36 (09/13/1968), his 2004 base salary is $3.25M, rises to $5.75M (2005) and $6.75M (2006). He is not a true FA until 2007 and will be 39 years old. Johnson has 99 career starts and a 61.8% comp % and a career qb rating of 84.

Brad Johnson had been a solid qb (96' - 03') but his age, salary and contract status are all negatives. Holcomb is less experienced than Harrington. Neither is a great choice. :(

Author:  Brian [ November 19th, 2004, 10:53 pm ]
Post subject: 

I don't really see any FA QB on the market, besides Brees and Hasselbeck, that we can bring in here and will actually light a fire under Harrington, and those QBs are going to be too expensive for us to acquire, as they are going to want starting roles on the teams that they sign with.

Hasselbeck is interesting. He really hasn't been performing well this season (As us stupid people who decided to trade for him in fantasy football realize) and with Shaun Alexander being the Seahawks #1 priority this off season, Hasselbeck may not get the huge deal that he thinks he will deserve from Seattle.

Matt is the only guy I could see possibly coming here that could actually challenge Joey. He knows the WCO well, as he runs it in Seattle, and has shown to be an effective QB over his career.

Again, the only thing possibly holding a FA back from signing here is Harrington, and how the organization has put all their faith in him, given him the starting role, and his contract taking up a lot of salary at the position. Because of Joey's contract, it will be impossible to sign any QB that isn't going to accept a backup's salary.

Author:  California Kid [ November 21st, 2004, 6:26 pm ]
Post subject: 

Quote:
Brad Johnson had been a solid qb (96' - 03') but his age, salary and contract status are all negatives. Holcomb is less experienced than Harrington. Neither is a great choice.

Pablo, I hear ya. I may sound ignorent asking this but if Johnson's cut doesn't that void his contract (as far as the Lions are concerned anyway)? That's the only way I could see (or would want) him coming to the Lions. I don't beleive anyone is going to pick up his current contract with those numbers. I was just trying think of a way to go bargin hunting, and yet still improve Detroit's QB situation.

Brian, Hasselback would be near the top of my list as well, if the Lions could afford him. Although I don't think there is going to be a FA available next year that's worth breaking the bank. I didn't even consider Brees or Hasselback because I don't feel the Lions will cut Harrington. Although who knows... :oops:

Author:  Pablo [ November 22nd, 2004, 11:31 am ]
Post subject: 

California Kid wrote:
if Johnson's cut doesn't that void his contract


Actually, I believe you are correct. But with 2 more years remaining the bonus would accelerate and hit the cap. I don't know what his bonus amounts were but if his salary was that high I'm sure the bonus $ are substantial as well.

In this situation, with Brad's age, he is unlikely to get a nice fat paycheck somewhere else. My guess would be that the Bucs could get him to renegotiate his contract - extending the terms - to lower his base.

My guess is that they may keep him, that is unless somehow Gruden can get his hands on Gannon.

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