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 Playoff Scenarios 
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Varsity Benchwarmer
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Joined: November 15th, 2004, 4:05 am
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Post Playoff Scenarios
I love this point in the season where you can have fun with different playoff scenarios. I lifted this off another board. While it's not my research it seems right to me. Anyhow, I thought I'd share it here, for anyone eles who enjoys this stuff...
Quote:
Breakdown of each team's chances to make the playoffs with 5 or more wins in the NFC.

Philly: Clinched Division. Can clinch homefield advantage with any combination of two wins and two Atlanta losses
Dallas: Can clinch a berth with four wins and two losses by Seattle OR St Louis
NY Giants: Need too much help, but still possible
Washington: Needs a TON of help, but not mathematically eliminated (they would be the best possible 8-8 team, as they would be 8-4 in the conference, not counting head to head where they could lose).

Atlanta: Can clinch the Division with either a win or tie OR a Carolina loss or tie AND a Tampa Bay loss or tie. Can clinch a first round bye with 3 wins in its last 4 games.
Carolina: Can clinch a berth with four wins and a Dallas loss
Tampa Bay: Can clinch a berth with four wins and a Dallas loss and a Carolina loss
New Orleans: Needs a TON of help, but not mathematically eliminated.

Green Bay: can clinch a berth with 3 wins in its last 4 games, and the division if one of those is over Minnesota
Minnesota: can clinch a berth with 3 wins in its last 4 games
Chicago: Can clinch a berth with 4 wins and a lot of help (too many head to head losses against other 5-7 teams)
Detroit: Can Clinch a berth with 4 wins, a Dallas loss, a Carolina Loss, and an additional Minnesota loss or two St Louis losses or two Seattle losses.

St. Louis: Can clinch a berth win three wins, the division with four wins.
Seattle: Can clinch a berth with 4 wins.
Arizona: Needs a TON of help, but not mathematically eliminated.
San Fran: Eliminated

Who to root for: Philly over Dallas, Seattle against Minnesota, St Louis over Carolina. If this happens, the Lions control their own destiny for a wildcard berth....

Best case scenario is Seattle beats Minny, Minny beats GB, Lions win out. All three teams will be 8-7 after week 16, but Lions will only have 2 division losses while Minny and GB will both have 3. Lions would know a week in advance that a win at (currently 4-8) Tennessee would mean the division title.



The best case scenario he mentions sounds pretty tough (just to win next week in GB :shock: ), but hey it could happen. I love the idea of Detroit going into their final game in control of their own fate playing "win & you'er in" football. In any case it's fun to talk about, and while they'er still alive why not? :arrow:


December 7th, 2004, 4:04 am
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Good stuff C-Kid. I appreciate this lengthy detail on the playoff scenario. I've got to read it one more time and then pop some aspirins.

That said, what is up with the Seahawks. Down 15, they come back to take a 10 point lead with under 2 minutes to play and lose the game to the Cowgirls who are now in the mix at 5-7. (Granted that Keyshawn TD was bogus) Now the hawks drop from division leader to wild-card team - doh.

And I thought KJ had a great shot at rookie-of-the-week until the "other" Jones got that last carry and finished with 4 more yards and 2 more TDs - damn! :cry:


December 7th, 2004, 11:18 am
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Water Boy
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I'm kinda confused, was the Seahawks losing bad for our chances at making the wild card?

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December 8th, 2004, 7:39 pm
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No no. You'er talking about the the best case scenario where the hawks beat the vikes right? I think he (again I don't want to represent this as my work, I just trust it) was trying to find a path where the Lions could rise up and win the division. Obviously a wildcard birth out of the west would hurt. It's a tall order however you try to see them getting in, but it's kind of fun IMO.

For those who can't make yourselves believe that the Lions can win out: 8-8 gets them in IF Dallas, Carolina, St Louis OR Seattle, and Washington finish at 7-9 (or worse). AND NY Giants and Tampa Bay finish at 8-8 or lower. (again I'm steeling that but it looks right and I trust the sorce) While 8-8 requires a whole lot of help I can conceive all of those records realisticly happening.

Can you imagine what it will do to our hopes if Detroit could beat GB this week. We could talk about all this without laughing :lol:


Last edited by California Kid on December 9th, 2004, 7:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.



December 9th, 2004, 6:57 pm
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boxxleman wrote:
I'm kinda confused, was the Seahawks losing bad for our chances at making the wild card?


Depends on what happens the rest of the way. Most of us were guessing the seahawks would win their division (ahead of the rams who now move into the lead). Seattle now is a front running wild-card team, along with the Vikings. The Cowboys move into the mix with a 5-7 record but have the head-to-head tie breaker.

I don't think it was a great thing for the lions, but we really won't know for a few more weeks. If the rams win a few more games and both the seahawks lose a few more then it works out ok for the lions. As it stands right now we are sitting behind both teams (Seahawks and Cowboys).


December 9th, 2004, 6:59 pm
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