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 Andrew Luck elite? 
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Joined: February 11th, 2005, 3:01 pm
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Post Andrew Luck elite?
I know probably nobody will support this but just throwing it out there.

Andrew Luck isnt looking like an elite QB really, well at least not anytime I ve seen him play - which is a lot. I think he s better than someone like Stafford but not necessarily with throwing. He misses a lot of completable opportunities during the course of the games I watch. I think what sets Luck apart is his athleticism and ablity to rush and evade rushes, buy receivers time to come open as well as the fact that his coaches allow him to take a lot of deep shots. Stafford for example is definitely not elite and not really in that conversation but Luck is widely considered elite. People criticize Stafford s accuracy but seems they overlook or would be shocked if you told them the truth that he has a higher completion % career than Luck.

Fans and experts alike will tend to point to Luck's record (11-5 each of his 3 seasons) but he s in an awful division and absolutely feasting on them. Jacksonville, Tennessee and Houston dont have stable QB situations and are not hostile environments to play in. Contrast that with the NFC North. Luck is 16-2 when playing his division and 12-0 the past two seasons vs them. That means he s 17-15 vs everyone else career and just 10-10 since 2013. I would love to see a breakdown of his passing numbers in and out of his division but dont know how to generate one unless I go throw each game and make my own spreadsheet which I dont have time for. Regardless I think its safe to say Luck wouldnt be 16-2 in the NFC north though he is 3-1 (all in his rookie season).

Playoff performances then would be the next thing and Luck has won 3 playoff games which sets him apart and that plus his TD stats is enough to sway people. Of course he s had the luxury of playing at home winning a wild shootout vs KC at home, beating a depleted CIN team at home and then a statement road win at Denver against a Peyton Manning team that really struggled. Luck didnt look all that great in that one. In his road playoff games they had the win vs Denver obviously but aside from that 2 beatdowns from New England and another from Baltimore. Comparing to Stafford bc he s someone we all know on this site and none of us would say is elite. Stafford playoff comp 65.9%, Luck 56.5%. TD % Stafford 4.7% Luck 3.5%, INT % Stafford 3.5%, Luck 4.6%, playoff passer rating Stafford 92.4, Luck 70.8.

Then people will talk about age and they are only about a 1 year and a half apart.

Anyway, its not really a post about Stafford although you can interpret it however you want. The post is about Luck. He s the golden boy, I ve heard people call him the best QB in the NFL not just the best "young QB" in the NFL. The media is really hyping him up and there is evidence to support it, the 40 TD season last year, some spectacular plays he s made and 3 playoff wins at a young age. But when you look a little bit deeper at least some of it has to be chalked up to pun intended - Luck ie fortunate situations. Coming into an atrocious division helps and yields home playoff games and then drawing Alex Smith and Andy Dalton led teams. Having a tried and true Bruce Arians offensive system and being in an organization that has won for the past 15 years helps too. I like the guy and I tend to root for him and appreciate his athletic talent and intelligence but I truly dont think he should be in that "elite" conversation to this point. I think he has a ways to go in improving his accuracy, limiting his turnover and stepping it up in big games.

As for the comparison points with Stafford I see a lot of similarites - big play passers, high reward high risk plays, big arms but not great accuracy or precision on the throws. I think Luck is better if I had my choice but I think its closer than people think it is and the biggest factor might be Luck s legs and mobility over Stafford. Besides that they might be a tossup.

Wondering if there is anyone out there that agrees with me on any of this...

September 22nd, 2015, 9:33 pm
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Post Re: Andrew Luck elite?
I don't think Luck's the problem there. Sure he's having a down year. All QB's have them. I think the real issue there is the exact same thing that's happened every year we've had bad years for the last two regimes. Offensive line. People are quick to say Luck is excellent on the move and rightfully so because he's had to do a lot of it over the past few years. He wouldn't be on the move if it weren't for the poor offensive line play. And the blame isn't entirely on the players. It's scheme, along with the players not matching the scheme, same with what's happening here.

I'd agree that Luck's record is inflated due to a bad division, but he's fundamentally a much better QB than most. Fundamentals aren't going to help with the offensive line he's got at the moment though. You had to know there would be a problem in Indy this year with the rift between Pagano and the GM. When they gave up 45 points in the title game and didn't do a think on defense in the draft or offseason, they were guaranteed to be on a down year. But as bad as they look, they'll still win the division and make the playoffs. And winning erases the faults of QB's. Luck is a good quarterback and should be elite with the right team around him.

September 22nd, 2015, 10:02 pm
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Joined: August 9th, 2004, 1:51 am
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Post Re: Andrew Luck elite?
As they said on IT IS WHAT IT IS ( a radio show )......Lets talk about Luck being elite when he actually is. I believe on the show yesterday it was stated that Stafford's numbers are very comparable to Luck's numbers, if not better......and no one thinks of Stafford being elite, especially me. But as Sean said....I would take Luck over Stafford and time.


I feel more like I do now than when I first got here.

September 23rd, 2015, 7:41 am
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Joined: August 6th, 2004, 9:21 am
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Location: Dallas
Post Re: Andrew Luck elite?
First you need to define elite? Top 3, top 5?

We have only had two games so far this year, too small of a sample size. Going back to last year, Luck lead the league in TDs (40), was third in total yardage. His 9 picks were second lowest among the top 15 QBs (Rodgers only had 6).

Also, let's take a look at who Luck is playing with. Offensive line - ugh! Running game - ugh! Receivers - certainly no CJ there.

Elite? If you were starting a franchise who would you rather have in the most important position on the field. Aaron Rodgers? Ok, if you don't mid a QB who turns 32 this season vs one who is six years younger - then I will give him to you. Some other guys to consider:

T. Brady? 38, maybe for one game or even one season - but not overall at his age...
P. Manning? 39, looks done...
D. Brees? 36, shoulder injuries...
R. Wilson? Totally different QB, just a little older than Luck but great leader. Maybe...

I define "elite" by comparing to others. Is Andrew Luck elite? If you start naming off QB's you'd rather have under center I think you would have to consider him elite.

BTW - he hasn't even entered his prime yet - who is going to be better than him in 2-3 years?

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September 23rd, 2015, 12:44 pm
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