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 Cespedes for Porcello 
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Post Cespedes for Porcello
Just read it...tigers trade Purcell for Yoenis Cespedes.

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December 11th, 2014, 11:52 am
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Post Re: Cespedes for Porcello
and....Suarez and former 1st round pick Jonathon Crawford RHP for Alfredo Simon

Overall: Bad


December 11th, 2014, 1:03 pm
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Post Re: Cespedes for Porcello
2013-2014 comparison

CF Austin Jackson - CF Anthony Gose (worse hitter, better defense, less cost) Overall trend down
LF Rajai Davis - Davis/JD Martinez (better hitting, D same but not good, cost equal) Treading water
RF Hunter - Cespedes (hitting slightly worse but more power, D better, cost less) Trending up but less than we think
DH V Mart - VMart (all same but increased cost) Treading water
3B Castellanos - Castellanos (figures to hit better, field better cost same) Trending up
SS Romine/Suarez - Iglesias (better D, better hit, better fielder, cost same) Trend up if healthy
2B Kinsler - Kinsler (hit worse, field equal, cost same) Trending down
1B Cabrera (depends on recovery from ankle surgery) Treading water
C Avila/Holaday - Avila/McCann (slight improved all across) Trending up slightly

SP Scherzer - SP Price (treading water)
SP Sanchez - SP Sanchez (treading water)
SP Verlander- SP Verlander (trending up or down? dont know)
SP Porcello - SP Simon (trending down)
SP Smyly - SP Greene/Lobstein (trending down)


Not sure they are better. Definitely should be better on defense and looks like worse with starting pitching unless JV has a big bounce back or they pull a rabbit out of the hat with Scherzer. Need some help in the bullpen still which will make or break there offseason and is still not addressed. They also added RHP Alex Wilson 28 yo who might be able to help in the bullpen and low level minor leaguer Gabe Speir who is a former 19th rd pick has already had Tommy John surgery. What troubles me is they seem to have no foresight beyond the current season and without Suarez have no backup plan at SS with any semblance of upside.


December 11th, 2014, 1:19 pm
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Post Re: Cespedes for Porcello
The Legend wrote:
and....Suarez and former 1st round pick Jonathon Crawford RHP for Alfredo Simon

Overall: Bad


Swear word (Suarez) was a defensive error waiting to happen. He can't hit a lick either. Good riddance. I don't know anything about Crawford.


December 11th, 2014, 2:25 pm
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Post Re: Cespedes for Porcello
BillySims wrote:
The Legend wrote:
and....Suarez and former 1st round pick Jonathon Crawford RHP for Alfredo Simon

Overall: Bad


Swear word (Suarez) was a defensive error waiting to happen. He can't hit a lick either. Good riddance. I don't know anything about Crawford.



I like Suarez a lot. He s not as good a defender as Iglesias or Romine but he is a good defender who is developing power and has greater potential to hit for average and power than Iglesias. Crawford is a solid prospect who was the Tigers 1st round pick in 2013, he was doing fine but was passed over by other starting prospects and wasnt striking batters out in the minors at the rate that was expected for being in low Class A last season. I dont have a problem with trading Crawford but Suarez could have been an option at 2B as well where Kinsler s performance in the 2nd half of last year was terrible. Obviously the Tigers are saying they prefer Hernan Perez over Suarez but Perez isnt capable of playing shortstop for extended stretches and doesnt hit as well as Suarez. Suarez if and when he breaks into the Reds lineup could hit for double digit home runs in that ballpark.

The reason I dont like the trade is bc they are downgrading from Porcello to Simon. Simon is an accused murderer and accused rapist who just had his best season at age 33. He s a stopgap back end starter for the Tigers and not anywhere near the "All-Star" label that DD gave him at the press conference. I think the Tigers easily could have landed a better pitcher in free agency for more money and kept both Suarez and Crawford. I dont see why it was necessary to make this trade with the way Kyle Lobstein emerged late last season and the acquisition of Shane Green as well to be a back end starter. I think Lobstein has a good chance to break the starting rotation at some point in 2015 and Simon or Greene could then potentially move to the bullpen as a decent option in middle relief. Greene had a nice run with the Yankees last season but his production in the majors was far better than any production he had at any point in the minors.

As for Cespedes he s a feast or famine hitter who will strike out a lot but also has some home run and doubles power. As a hitter he is not much of an improvement over Torii Hunter but runs better and has more power at the expense of hitting for average and worse plate discipline. Cespedes has wheels but is not a great baserunner though his speed and athleticism is valuable for the Tigers. Defensively, he plays Left Field almost exclusively and has refused to move to right field even though his big arm is best suited to be used in Right Field. He is a better defender than Rajai Davis in left field but that means JD Martinez gets pushed into RF. Martinez is a below average defender though better than Hunter was late in his career. Cespedes definitely is a good addition but not sure if he was worth downgrading on Porcello. Porcello is still only 25 years old and has his best baseball ahead of him. I strongly believe the Tigers will regret not giving him an Anibal Sanchez type of contract. I think DD is enamored with the big strikeout arms and Porcello doesnt fit that big time power arm but he wins a lot of games anyway as a ground ball pitcher despite the awful defense the Tigers have had behind him. He will produce as a No 2 or 3 starter for the Red Sox.

The Tigers may not feel that loss as much until 2016 when Price will be gone and only Sanchez and a declining Verlander will be under contract. They will be leaning heavily on hoping for the development of minor league arms like Kevin Ziomek, Buck Farmer, and Drew VerHagen none of whom are viewed as big time prospects but more of back end starters who could wind up in the pen. Look for more bundled prospect trade packages for pricey major leaguers near the end of there contracts.

Overall, the Tigers are better for 2015 than when the day started defensively and in the lineup with run production which they needed while KC looks like they ve gotten worse. DD is doing what he can to keep the window of opportunity open for repeated playoff berths but there will be a time soon when Tigers fans will massively regret that the Tigers didnt sell there top end guys for highly regarded prospects. Hopefully, the Tigers repeated trading of the future for the present will at least bring in a World Series but I really dont see them as a legit threat to win the World Series with this roster unless there are some major breakthrough performances in the bullpen and DD can add another starter at the trade deadline.


December 12th, 2014, 12:19 am
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Post Re: Cespedes for Porcello
I think I look at this trade the following way. Cespedes for Porcello makes the Tigers a better team 4 out of 5 days of the week. I honestly think Porcello reached his peak this past season, I'm not saying he'll completely fall off this season, but I don't think he'll have another half of a season like he did the first half of 2014. Cespedes will learn from Martinez and Cabrara this season how to become a hitter. I think he'll struggle slightly to start the season then start becoming a beast the second half of the season. Comerica park isn't the pitcher's park that people always claim it to be, it ranks right in the middle of the pack for homeruns of all the MLB parks, so I doubt his power numbers will drop all that much. All in all I think the Tigers are better than they were before the trade but they are still a worse team overall from last year, if that makes sense. Losing two starting pitchers will be hard to recover from, and the bull pen still hasn't been properly addressed in my opinion.


December 12th, 2014, 12:45 pm
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Post Re: Cespedes for Porcello
Simon went to trial for manslaughter, involuntary. He' like many others were shooting guns into the air as a cultural celebration and the bullet hit someone and killed them. It was proven to have not come from his gun. So, not a murderer.

Rapist, maybe. So is Evan reed too, and nobody bitched about him. Simon is a solid reliever. I would rather see lobster starting and Simon in the pen, he's more valuable there. He wore down during the season last year.

I like the porcello trade. He would have done better this year 3.25 era I'm guessing, with nice saber metrics to back it up. However, his Ks were down and he was likely going to get $15 per for 6 years. I wouldn't pay the kid $100+. I'd rather have shields for 5 years at $15 per.

Now, not a big Cespedes fan and would much rather had Melky for 4 yr / $68M. And melky has an OBP about 50 points higher. My big beef with Cespedes is his low OBP makes him a poor spot for the 2 hole...so that's still a hole we need to figure out. His D is way overrated simply due to his arm. His routes are terrible.

Alex Wilson will be a nice bullpen piece. Spaier takes Crawford's spot in high a ball. And spaier is only 19. Crawford was 23 and didn't dominate a ball like he should have. Not encouraging. He should have had a 1.9 era with 10+ k/9. Plus, his control was terrible for his age and level. He wasn't like knebel or Thompson.

Suarez was a nice utility guy, but was an adequate defender. Notice how romine got a load of starts at the end when they needed wins? His d was much better and they were both hitting the same. Suarez raked for a few weeks, but had zero power after his initial welcome to the show.

The porcello deal will end up being a good one and the Simon deal will end up being bad.

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December 12th, 2014, 5:57 pm
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Post Re: Cespedes for Porcello
aManNamedSuh wrote:
I think I look at this trade the following way. Cespedes for Porcello makes the Tigers a better team 4 out of 5 days of the week. I honestly think Porcello reached his peak this past season, I'm not saying he'll completely fall off this season, but I don't think he'll have another half of a season like he did the first half of 2014. Cespedes will learn from Martinez and Cabrara this season how to become a hitter. I think he'll struggle slightly to start the season then start becoming a beast the second half of the season. Comerica park isn't the pitcher's park that people always claim it to be, it ranks right in the middle of the pack for homeruns of all the MLB parks, so I doubt his power numbers will drop all that much. All in all I think the Tigers are better than they were before the trade but they are still a worse team overall from last year, if that makes sense. Losing two starting pitchers will be hard to recover from, and the bull pen still hasn't been properly addressed in my opinion.



agree with your assessment. hunter was a better hitter than cespedes the past 2 seasons but that could change depending on where the tigers bat him in the lineup and he should stand to benefit from vmart, cabrera and even jd. i think comerica is a better hitter's park than the oakland colliseum so thats another potential plus. DD had to choose bw this trade, his minor league guys (Collins, Moya) and available FA outfielders (melky cabrera, nelson cruz).

the simon trade i dont get - the tigers arent averse to adding payroll and in this case it would be a short term deal for a FA 5th starter and they could ve gotten a guy who is less checkered and more established for more money but without giving up good prospects.

The biggest question remains: WHERE IS THE BULLPEN HELP??????


December 13th, 2014, 5:16 am
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Post Re: Cespedes for Porcello
Hear me out...

They could still sign scherzer in the dwindling market for big money pitchers. Simon goes to the pen. They pay the LT for one year only. They have price ($18), Simon ($5), Nathan ($10), Soria ($7), Cespedes ($10), and Davis ($5) all coming off the books next year. That's $52M to spend next year for a 2x SP, 2x RP, OF. Collins could easily be the OF, lobster could be the SP. Wilson is looking like a solid RP.

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December 13th, 2014, 10:51 am
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Post Re: Cespedes for Porcello
Quote:
Simon went to trial for manslaughter, involuntary. He' like many others were shooting guns into the air as a cultural celebration and the bullet hit someone and killed them. It was proven to have not come from his gun. So, not a murderer.

Rapist, maybe. So is Evan reed too, and nobody bitched about him. Simon is a solid reliever. I would rather see lobster starting and Simon in the pen, he's more valuable there. He wore down during the season last year.


Reid was already in the organization so they dealt with it but why trade for a guy with a checkered past like that. The rumors after the Porcello-Cespedes trade were that the Tigers were going to land Mike Leake from Cincy for prospects but Im not sure what happened there. Leake would ve been a much better acquisition and potentially even an upgrade over Porcello.

Quote:
I like the porcello trade. He would have done better this year 3.25 era I'm guessing, with nice saber metrics to back it up. However, his Ks were down and he was likely going to get $15 per for 6 years. I wouldn't pay the kid $100+. I'd rather have shields for 5 years at $15 per.


if porcello got a 6 year deal he d be shields current age at the end of that deal. there s a 7 year age difference bw them. for the future of the franchise id rather invest in the younger guy who is getting better rather than the older one. shields has gone over 200 IP 8 years in a row, he s a big time workhorse and clearly the better target for short term but i dont want to be paying for the fallout on the back end of his deal.

Quote:
Now, not a big Cespedes fan and would much rather had Melky for 4 yr / $68M. And melky has an OBP about 50 points higher. My big beef with Cespedes is his low OBP makes him a poor spot for the 2 hole...so that's still a hole we need to figure out. His D is way overrated simply due to his arm. His routes are terrible.


agree on all points. cespedes insane arm gets him nice highlights but the rest of his fielding ability nowhere near matches that arm. he also strikes out a ton. cabrera is a better all around hitter with a bit less homerun power but gets a lot of extra base hits, gets on base more, is a switch hitter, doesnt strike out a lot, and the tigers could bat him at the top of the order where anthony gose really shouldnt be hitting.

Quote:
Alex Wilson will be a nice bullpen piece. Spaier takes Crawford's spot in high a ball. And spaier is only 19. Crawford was 23 and didn't dominate a ball like he should have. Not encouraging. He should have had a 1.9 era with 10+ k/9. Plus, his control was terrible for his age and level. He wasn't like knebel or Thompson.


Speir s arm has already been reconstructed and he was pitching in short season rookie ball. there isnt a lot to go off of with him but having had that operation so young there s a good bet his career doesnt last much longer than age 25 or 26. crawford was spending a lot of his time trying to develop a 3rd pitch so that he can remain a starter. his arm talent is a lot better than his strikeout/walk numbers indicate and he was probably capable of missing more bats. i think if someone really wanted to push him to the majors he could be ready to contribute out of the pen soon but his biggest upside is as a starter and he has to take some more lumps developing a 3rd pitch.

Quote:
Suarez was a nice utility guy, but was an adequate defender. Notice how romine got a load of starts at the end when they needed wins? His d was much better and they were both hitting the same. Suarez raked for a few weeks, but had zero power after his initial welcome to the show.


Suarez definitely hit a wall but then again he was 22 and had just climbed from Class A to the bigs in a one year span. Romine is the better fielder but he s 6 years older and cant be considered as having much chance to develop his horrendous bat much further. In equal at bats for the season, Suarez was a much better hitter with an OPS 100 points higher. Romine being a switch hitter however helped him pry away playing time late in the season. I think Suarez will have a run as a starting MLB middle infielder for at least a few seasons.

The Tigers are playing a dangerous game of all or nothing. Anything short of winning a World Series is a failure but they just havent done enough here to even seal there ticket to the playoffs. Joe Nathan as closer, Blaine Hardy as the reliable lefty - its not enough. Why does DD refuse to get established help in the bullpen?


December 13th, 2014, 11:26 am
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Post Re: Cespedes for Porcello
conversion02 wrote:
Hear me out...

They could still sign scherzer in the dwindling market for big money pitchers. Simon goes to the pen. They pay the LT for one year only. They have price ($18), Simon ($5), Nathan ($10), Soria ($7), Cespedes ($10), and Davis ($5) all coming off the books next year. That's $52M to spend next year for a 2x SP, 2x RP, OF. Collins could easily be the OF, lobster could be the SP. Wilson is looking like a solid RP.


I hear what you are saying but I just dont like this game of going after hired guns. It doesnt work all that well and it isnt sustainable. There s no depth, an injury or two hits and they re stuck scrambling to bring up guys 2-3 years away from the majors up from low Class A to start. Farmer, Ryan, VerHagen and whoever else had no business starting games in a playoff chase last year. Suarez shouldnt have been in the majors and Romine probably would not have made the Anaheim Angels. They have a couple outfielders in the upper levels of the minors who can maybe contribute soon like Fields, Moya, and Collins but other than that this organization is dangerously top heavy and have a lot of future payroll dedicated to the declining years of too many players.

Further, as a fan I find it harder to stay interested, I dont feel a lot of connection to a team put together like this. Its far more interesting to watch a guy like Smyly or Porcello develop through there careers and achieve something here than it is to watch a hired gun who s just waiting a few months to get a payday and cash out of town like Price or Cespedes.


December 13th, 2014, 11:34 am
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Post Re: Cespedes for Porcello
I do agree with what you're saying. Lobster and Ryan should be upend contributing. Both are solid prospects. I'm worried about the rotation and at some point, DD is going to have to strike lightning in a bottle with young pitchers. He's hoping Greene is that, but more is necessary. We need 2 starters for next year. We have one likely, lobster. JV, Sancez, Greene, Lobster, and who knows. I have all the faith JV will come back to a 3.4 era, not ace worthy. Sanchez is always hurt with some piddly crap. Beyond that, who knows. That's a bad rotation. They need young, solid prospects.

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December 13th, 2014, 12:44 pm
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Post Re: Cespedes for Porcello
Legend, rumor is there have been no talks of an extension with Price. Could mean they're looking at bringing scherzer back. I hate the idea of an all righty lineup, which we could have in 2016 (Simon would be a FA, so maybe they get a lefty to replace him (Lobstein)). I like lobstein, but he relies a lot on the cutter, which is hard for him to control. He rarely throws a curve and his change is merely adequate as just another offering.

Honestly, I like scherzer, but I would hate putting $273M for each of the next 7 in his pocket. That would cripple this team, like the JV deal is doing. I'd rather pay Shields $100 for 5. He's got better pitch ability than Max, IMO. I would rather let max sign somewhere else, cripple their payroll, and take the 1st/2nd round pick out of it.

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December 29th, 2014, 10:46 pm
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Post Re: Cespedes for Porcello
I think the Tigers are probably not even in contact with Scherzer right now. DD openly said they arent pursuing him but after trading for Price midseason when SP was not a need how can anybody 100% believe that he ll go into this season with Price, Sanchez, Verlander, and 2/3 of Greene, Simon, and Lobstein with no premium pitching prospects on the horizon. Boras on the other hand said the Tigers wont get a chance to match other offers. Well if he s the amazing agent that everyone says, the Tigers and every other team will have a chance to match the offer. You dont just settle for the first offer like Kosmo Kramer with Java Coffee. Scherzer will probably sign in January and the Tigers wont go above $200 million but they ll get pretty darn close. I like the Tigers to get Scherzer at 7yrs/$189 million which is an additional year and over $1 mill more per season than what Jon Lester got (makes it a big win for Boras also). Then they ll let Price play out his final year here and be a trade chip if the season goes sour but he ll be pitching to get his near $200 million deal in 2016 if they still havent won a World Series and Ilitch is still living.

Its insane and your idea of Shields at 5 yrs is probably better for the team but we cannot comprehend the kind of wealth Ilitch has lived with in his adult life. He s left his family with plenty for another couple generations even if they were total degenerates. Little Caesars is at about $3 billion/year in sales and this new entertainment district they planned is supposedly $650 million.

If they somehow dont get Scherzer which I think is unlikely I think they definitely chase someone like Shields and then sign Price to a big deal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qoINTDFosCY (negotiation at around 2:45 mark)


December 30th, 2014, 12:13 am
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