19. NFC North (order of finish)
Gene's NFC North picks
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Minnesota Vikings -- Or the Chicago Bears. Or even the Green Bay Packers. It's that close.

I'm taking the Vikes because Brett Favre will do what Tarvaris Jackson has never done: complete 60 percent or more of his passes. Favre doesn't need to be a weekly hero. He just needs to make teams pay when they load the box against Peterson. It also would help if he cut down on those 22 interceptions of a season ago. This time he'll have a better offensive line than the one he had with the Jets, a better running back, a better offense, a rookie wide receiver in Harvin who just needs a sliver of open space, and a return to the division he knows best.

The Pat and Kevin Williams court situation still remains, so there's a chance Minnesota could be without its nose tackle and defensive tackle for four games apiece. If it happens, defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier, who could be a head coach by 2010, will figure something out.

Bears -- If the Bears want to reach the playoffs, they might have to win the division. It's been eight years since two teams from the NFC North qualified for postseason play. And in the last nine seasons, it's taken at least 10 games to win the division and an average of more than 11 victories.

Why does this matter? Because the Bears went 9-7 with Orton at quarterback in 2008. So it stands to reason that Cutler is worth at least one win, probably two, right? That's what the Bears figure.

Trading Orton for Cutler is like trading a Civic for a Shelby 500. Orton is dependable; Cutler is turbo-charged, yee-haw fun. A few things, though: Cutler thinks with his arm instead of his head way too often. That means interceptions and drive-ending incompletions. And it will be interesting to see how his temper holds up when he realizes the Bears don't have a Brandon Marshall or an Eddie Royal. But at least he has Forte and tight ends Olsen and Desmond Clark.

But the real question has nothing to do with Cutler; it has to do with the defense, specifically the D-line and the secondary. The Bears were 30th against the pass last season and 21st in total defense. If those numbers don't improve, then Cutler could end up doing what he did last season: missing the playoffs.

Packers -- Not much going on the night of Sept. 13. Just the Bears at Lambeau Field and the perfect opportunity for the Packers to make a statement.

Whatever the Pack is doing on offense during the preseason, it needs to keep doing during the regular season. Has Rodgers even thrown an incomplete pass yet?

The Packers aren't going to go 6-10 again. But if they want to challenge for the division, they'll need to remember how to run the ball. Ryan Grant finished with 1,203 yards in 2008, but it was a forgettable 1,000-yard season. The telling number: His yards per carry dropped by 1.2 from a season earlier.

Dom Capers is the defensive coordinator and has a history of seamless transitions when it comes to installing the 3-4. So far, so good during preseason with the new scheme. Through their first three games, the Pack's first-team D had forced 13 turnovers, given up just 10 points and recorded 11 sacks.

Detroit Lions -- You mean the Dan Orlovsky Era is over?

An 0-6 start is a distinct possibility, thanks to games at New Orleans, Minnesota, Washington, at Chicago, Pittsburgh and at Green Bay. But even if that happens, they'll be better than the 2008 Lions team that started out winless and stayed that way. Three reasons: Calvin Johnson, Stafford and Kevin Smith.

15. Detroit's Matthew Stafford will have a better rookie season than the Jets' Sanchez because …
Stafford has wide receiver Calvin Johnson, Sanchez doesn't. Sanchez has to play in the world's media capital, Stafford doesn't. True, the Jets have a much better offensive line than the Lions, but Stafford's quick release will help reduce that sack total of 52 in 2008.

15. Detroit's Matthew Stafford will have a better rookie season than the Jets' Sanchez because …
Stafford has wide receiver Calvin Johnson, Sanchez doesn't. Sanchez has to play in the world's media capital, Stafford doesn't. True, the Jets have a much better offensive line than the Lions, but Stafford's quick release will help reduce that sack total of 52 in 2008.