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 Prospect ratings 
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Post Re: Prospect ratings
there is no doubt that the line needs to be improved too, but the talent isnt there at pick 13 to improve that. with brown and smith on their way out, and with mo mo nearing the end, rb becomes a position of need. like i said earlier im not sure if they need to fill in with the first round pick, but if they think mark ingram is a special player and that jahvid best could possibly play the slot then that would make picking mark ingram a more valuable pick. they could potentially strengthen 2 positions by selecting him at that point. I guess maybe i overvalue ingram, but i think he will be a really good rb in the nfl. I just really hope amukamara is there so its not even an option.


January 18th, 2011, 6:49 pm
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Post Re: Prospect ratings
I'm not convinced MoMo is nearing the end. If he were a car, he's old but low mileage.

I'm also not convinced Smith needs to be on his way out. Sure the injuries the past 2 seasons raise question marks, but not enough for me to decide he's a bust. If we were relying on him to be our number 1 back, I'd have big concerns. As a number 3, I can cope.

None of that is to say that we shouldn't take Ingram even if he is the BPA by some margin when we come to pick. In that scenario, I'd definitely take him.

But under Mayhew's expressed "BPA + sprinkling of common sense" formula, if Ingram's available along with another player close to his level of talent but at a position of need (say CB or LB) I expect that we don't take Ingram and take that other player.


January 18th, 2011, 8:16 pm
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Post Re: Prospect ratings
wjb21ndtown wrote:
The Legend wrote:
what the? i thought you were against 1st rd RBs?


??? Where did you get that from? I wanted us to draft Willis McGahee before he busted his knee, and I would have loved AP over CJ if I wasn't afraid of injury issues. Rb is the position that has the most immediate impact on offense. I would love for the Lions to land a TRUE first round caliber every down back.



When the Lions took Best last year, you said that we could get a RB late in the draft or outside the draft altogether. Not 100% sure but pretty sure you werent happy about Best pick and said something about not the place to take a RB


January 18th, 2011, 10:57 pm
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Post Re: Prospect ratings
Anybody know anything about Robert Sands? FS for W.Va. 6'5", 220. He was named the best hitter in the Big East. Big hitter, some what of a ballhawk.

Sport's Inc. rated him at 80, which would put him about mid 2nd round.

Haven't heard much about him, but putting him in a backfield with Delmas might make the middle, behind the LBs a no mans land.

Comments?


January 18th, 2011, 11:05 pm
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Post Re: Prospect ratings
100 days until the draft...

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January 19th, 2011, 12:02 am
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Post Re: Prospect ratings
The Legend wrote:
wjb21ndtown wrote:
The Legend wrote:
what the? i thought you were against 1st rd RBs?


??? Where did you get that from? I wanted us to draft Willis McGahee before he busted his knee, and I would have loved AP over CJ if I wasn't afraid of injury issues. Rb is the position that has the most immediate impact on offense. I would love for the Lions to land a TRUE first round caliber every down back.



When the Lions took Best last year, you said that we could get a RB late in the draft or outside the draft altogether. Not 100% sure but pretty sure you werent happy about Best pick and said something about not the place to take a RB


Nooooooo... What I said was, we could get a Rb of Best's quality in the 3rd round, and I sited numerous Rbs of his type and style that have been selected in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I thought that we reached for Best, and I still think we reached for Best. However, there are plenty of Rbs worthy of a first round draft pick.


January 19th, 2011, 12:08 am
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Post Re: Prospect ratings
Ingram will be there at 13, I guarantee it, and I also guarantee the Lions will NOT take him at that point. If somehow Amukamara is still there, they take him. They look at Ayers. The thing we're not looking at is value at the pick. Does Ingram represent a #13 value? I don't. If the Lions "Trade Down" then they'll consider taking him if he's still available at 17 or 18 or wherever they end up, but he may not even represent the value there. I agree with a previous poster about reaching for Best at 30. Now, the fact that Minny might have grabbed him really forced our hand, so I'm not too mad about the reach because I think he was a piece to our offense that we desperately needed. I wouldn't call our need for a back like Ingram a desperate need like it was for Best last year.

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January 19th, 2011, 12:43 pm
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Post Re: Prospect ratings
well i guess you dont value ingram as high as i do. i think that most have him under valued. i wouldnt say that ingram will be there for sure at 13. you just might be surprised how fast he comes off the board. im willing to bet that teams have him ranked much higher on their boards than what most scouts do.


January 19th, 2011, 7:06 pm
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Post Re: Prospect ratings
You're right. All this pre-draft chatter gets thrown off by one team having a man-crush on a guy. Lots of players have gone a lot higher than they should have based on their production. Value is relative in the draft too. Unless you're picking at the top of Round 1, your value is going to be different than the Vikings or the Browns or whomever. I think that the further down you go, your value starts to descend into areas of need. Obviously if a guy falls to you that you didn't think would be available at your selection, you take him, regardless of need.

Lots of posters think that Mayhew is a strictly BPA type of drafter. While that has been his MO in the last two drafts, he was starting from a negative talent standpoint. Now that there is some talent on this roster, he doesn't necessarily have to go in this direction. Could he use another draft to get talent through drafting the BPA? Sure. There is still a talent void between the Lions and playoff teams, but they have done well for themselves in closing the gap.

As for Ingram I think he's the best RB in the draft, and that's probably not even debatable at this point. With the work the O-Line needs, and the glaring holes on defense, I just can't see a justification for taking him so high. I'm not overly enamored with the "first round" talent in this draft and I think good players at a lot of positions can be found in rounds 2-5. Kiper has him going to Miami at 15. They may have a serious need at RB if Brown and Williams aren't brought back so it would fit them. I wouldn't categorize the Lions need at the position as dire as the Dolphins if that scenario goes down. With Best and MoMo, who's still got some tread left on the tires, I think they'll be ok. If Kevin Smith can fill a roll, then we'll be ok. I would rather see the Lions address the O-Line before spending another first round pick on a RB.

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January 19th, 2011, 8:13 pm
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Post Re: Prospect ratings
well i see where your coming from wayno, you expect the backfield to stay the same. i really dont think there is a chance that it stays the same. i cant see detroit keeping kevin smith when there are 20+ guys that sit in free agency all year long that are more talented or more reliable than him.

as far as mo mo goes, what do you think that he is gonna last forever? i dont think so. you just cant think, well he has low mileage so he has a few more years left in him. he very well could, but he is getting to a age where your body just doesnt cooperate. there is no telling when he will reach the top of the hill and how he will come down the other side. he could just come down the other side nice and slowly or he could just fall off a cliff and you have to be prepared for that. he has run pretty well since he has been here, but we havent seen him carry a load all season either. how will he hold up getting 10-15 touches a game all season long? will he make it all season long? a rb has it till he doesnt anymore. there is no doubt in my mind that he is gonna be here next year though.

now the reason that i think ingram could be an option is because of the scenario that brown and smith are on their way outta town. mo mo is nearing the end and their is no telling if he can handle splitting the load with best all year long. therefore that would make rb a position of need. mark ingram is a phenomenal rb. he is the complete package. he can put his head down and run you over, make you miss, and out run you. its obvious that best needs somebody to split carries with, that doesnt mean that they have to go and use a 1st rd pick to fill that need. but picking at 13 ingram is gonna be nearly as good if not the best player on the board at that point. he is safe pick and not a reach by any means. its not a bad thing to have 2 very good rbs.

if amukamara or peterson is gone, and i believe they will be, i believe ayers, or harris would be a reach to go with at that point. I also believe that selecting a OG or a OC would be a reach at that point. I dont think there is a safety worthy. we are pretty set along the defensive line and like i said before i believe ingram will be considered pretty close to or better than anybody that is sitting there. backus played at a high level and i have seen plenty of offensive linemen play at a high level well into their 30s so i could see him sticking around for a few more years and i believe they think fox will be able to take over his position. in my scenario with mo mo nearing the end, smith and brown on their way outta town meaning that it would make rb a position of need. why reach for something else you need when there is such a good player sitting right there at a position of need. it obviously isnt as big a need as other positions. or is it?

everybody knows that we need lbs, cbs, s, oc, and a og. there will be GOOD players there at that point when we pick, but why settle for GOOD when you can have a GREAT player. i think there will be a lb sitting there in the second that would be a much better pick than taking ayers in the first. i guess all im getting at is that picking ingram at 13 just makes sense to me. i think he fits into both the bpa and a position of need. so i wouldnt just dismiss the idea of detroit taking him. who knows they could trade back, they could trade up to land amukamara or peterson, but for now i will just discuss picking at 13 because that is all we have to discuss at this point.


January 20th, 2011, 1:08 am
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Post Re: Prospect ratings
vankman79 wrote:
well i see where your coming from wayno, you expect the backfield to stay the same. i really dont think there is a chance that it stays the same. i cant see detroit keeping kevin smith when there are 20+ guys that sit in free agency all year long that are more talented or more reliable than him.

as far as mo mo goes, what do you think that he is gonna last forever? i dont think so. you just cant think, well he has low mileage so he has a few more years left in him. he very well could, but he is getting to a age where your body just doesnt cooperate. there is no telling when he will reach the top of the hill and how he will come down the other side. he could just come down the other side nice and slowly or he could just fall off a cliff and you have to be prepared for that. he has run pretty well since he has been here, but we havent seen him carry a load all season either. how will he hold up getting 10-15 touches a game all season long? will he make it all season long? a rb has it till he doesnt anymore. there is no doubt in my mind that he is gonna be here next year though.

now the reason that i think ingram could be an option is because of the scenario that brown and smith are on their way outta town. mo mo is nearing the end and their is no telling if he can handle splitting the load with best all year long. therefore that would make rb a position of need. mark ingram is a phenomenal rb. he is the complete package. he can put his head down and run you over, make you miss, and out run you. its obvious that best needs somebody to split carries with, that doesnt mean that they have to go and use a 1st rd pick to fill that need. but picking at 13 ingram is gonna be nearly as good if not the best player on the board at that point. he is safe pick and not a reach by any means. its not a bad thing to have 2 very good rbs.

if amukamara or peterson is gone, and i believe they will be, i believe ayers, or harris would be a reach to go with at that point. I also believe that selecting a OG or a OC would be a reach at that point. I dont think there is a safety worthy. we are pretty set along the defensive line and like i said before i believe ingram will be considered pretty close to or better than anybody that is sitting there. backus played at a high level and i have seen plenty of offensive linemen play at a high level well into their 30s so i could see him sticking around for a few more years and i believe they think fox will be able to take over his position. in my scenario with mo mo nearing the end, smith and brown on their way outta town meaning that it would make rb a position of need. why reach for something else you need when there is such a good player sitting right there at a position of need. it obviously isnt as big a need as other positions. or is it?

everybody knows that we need lbs, cbs, s, oc, and a og. there will be GOOD players there at that point when we pick, but why settle for GOOD when you can have a GREAT player. i think there will be a lb sitting there in the second that would be a much better pick than taking ayers in the first. i guess all im getting at is that picking ingram at 13 just makes sense to me. i think he fits into both the bpa and a position of need. so i wouldnt just dismiss the idea of detroit taking him. who knows they could trade back, they could trade up to land amukamara or peterson, but for now i will just discuss picking at 13 because that is all we have to discuss at this point.



Agree with some of your points, "its not a bad thing to have 2 very good rbs". Would have been nice to have that kind of quality depth with JB's bad toes this season. It's a little premature to anoint Ingram as a "GREAT player".

When you say "picking ingram at 13 just makes sense to me. i think he fits into both the bpa and a position of need". The way I see it, the same can be said about Julio Jones.


January 20th, 2011, 3:05 am
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Post Re: Prospect ratings
I really wish we could get a guy like Mikel Leshour. A true workhorse in the mold of RBs like Mendenhall, Steven Jackson, or Beanie Wells. Imgram will be good but Leshour was pretty much all of Illinois' offense.

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January 20th, 2011, 3:17 am
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Post Re: Prospect ratings
Wayne Fontes wrote:
Lots of posters think that Mayhew is a strictly BPA type of drafter. While that has been his MO in the last two drafts, he was starting from a negative talent standpoint. Now that there is some talent on this roster, he doesn't necessarily have to go in this direction. Could he use another draft to get talent through drafting the BPA? Sure. There is still a talent void between the Lions and playoff teams, but they have done well for themselves in closing the gap.

My guess would be that the Lions have a draft board that's made up something like:

X*Y = Z where

X = talent score for the player out of 100
Y = position need factor (a number between 0.[A] and 1 dependent on how badly we need a player at that position)
Z = overall player score for position on the board

When the Lions had an absolute dearth of talent, I suspect that "A" was very close to 999999etc as pretty much every position was "of need". As they have improved, I suspect that A has reduced. I don't know how low they'll allow it this year, but I am sure it is lower than previous drafts.

At least this is how I see as the "common sense" that Mayhew was talking about effectively working in practice.


January 20th, 2011, 9:51 am
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Post Re: Prospect ratings
UK Lion wrote:
My guess would be that the Lions have a draft board that's made up something like:

X*Y = Z
where
X = talent score for the player out of 100
Y = position need factor (a number between 0.[A] and 1 dependent on how badly we need a player at that position)
Z = overall player score for position on the board

When the Lions had an absolute dearth of talent, I suspect that "A" was very close to 999999etc as pretty much every position was "of need". As they have improved, I suspect that A has reduced. I don't know how low they'll allow it this year, but I am sure it is lower than previous drafts.

At least this is how I see as the "common sense" that Mayhew was talking about effectively working in practice.


I think you are pretty much right. When teams put together their draft boards and rank players, they are naturally going to give more value to players at a position of need.

Different teams set up their boards differently from each other. Some teams rank the players individually, some rank the players according to position, still other teams list each position against various areas of the draft (high first round, mid first round, low first round, etc.) and place the names of players they feel fall into those categories.

I truly have no idea how Schwartz and Mayhew set up their board, but I have a feeling they put together a list of players they are interested in based on interviews, game tape, etc..then give them a ranking based on where they feel they become a value pick, and fit the team. There are going to be some talented players they will keep off their board, despite needs. Chris Rucker won't be a Lion, despite some pretty decent talent. Even if he falls to the sixth round where the Lions pick, they'll pass him over even if they didn't select a corner earlier in the draft. It's one of the reasons I could see the Lions taking Robert Quinn at #13, because I don't think Akeem Ayers represents as much value at that pick as Quinn, long term.

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January 20th, 2011, 12:47 pm
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Post Re: Prospect ratings
UK Lion wrote:
Wayne Fontes wrote:
Lots of posters think that Mayhew is a strictly BPA type of drafter. While that has been his MO in the last two drafts, he was starting from a negative talent standpoint. Now that there is some talent on this roster, he doesn't necessarily have to go in this direction. Could he use another draft to get talent through drafting the BPA? Sure. There is still a talent void between the Lions and playoff teams, but they have done well for themselves in closing the gap.

My guess would be that the Lions have a draft board that's made up something like:

X*Y = Z where

X = talent score for the player out of 100
Y = position need factor (a number between 0.[A] and 1 dependent on how badly we need a player at that position)
Z = overall player score for position on the board

When the Lions had an absolute dearth of talent, I suspect that "A" was very close to 999999etc as pretty much every position was "of need". As they have improved, I suspect that A has reduced. I don't know how low they'll allow it this year, but I am sure it is lower than previous drafts.

At least this is how I see as the "common sense" that Mayhew was talking about effectively working in practice.

Very interesting. I wonder how they would determine the number for the "need" factor

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January 20th, 2011, 1:06 pm
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