Certainly did not take it personally, and I did not intend for it to read that way, but from what I saw of that game I disagreed with that particular analysis. Thanks for the nice words.

Of course it's not 100% accurate, but so far JPP does not have a sack while Morgan, Graham, Worilds, and Misi all have at least one. Of course, JPP will probably get two against the Lions and throw everything off. I actually think the early results show that Jerry Hughes, rather than JPP, might be a miss. Hughes was a healthy scratch for the first two games and has not yet recorded a sack, so the returns suggest that SackSEER may have been a bit too bullish on his prospects. SackSEER seems to be right about Sergio Kindle being a bit of a head case/injury risk though.

Just curious did you ever run your program to see what Willie Young and Suh would be?

Check it out:

http://www.lionbacker.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=13518

JJ Watt=Probowler

The dude's a beast. Putting up those numbers at 290 pounds is very impressive. A defensive line with Avirl and Watt on the ends and Suh in between be pretty sick.

I know it's very soon after the Combines, but were you planning to run your model with the numbers from this years DE/DT class?

I liked Watt before the combine.

Now I thionk if he is there at 13, you take him, and worry about CB AND LB later (unless Miller, Prine or Peterson are also still available - doubtful).

Watt looks like a beast, but is a production guy too, not some unheralded workout warrior.

I think he could be a DE in a 3-4 also, which is why he will get taken earlier than 13, but could see him as a dominating replacement for KVB in a year while we continue to work Avril/Speed Rushers on the opposite side.

I think Watt probably fits best as a 3-4 end. I read an article today that said Ryan Kerrigan was going to be the next KVB and it got me thinking who better to tutor him than the original KVB. I'm starting to come around to the idea of a DE at 13 depending on who is there.

Being fit to be a 3-4 end doesnt preclude him from being an all pro 4-3 DE either tho.

In general 4-3 DEs come in 2 varieties. (1) Speed Rush Focus with OK Run Support (Dwight Freeney) or (2) Run Contain with Solid Pass Rush Skills (KVB).

3-4 DEs due to the necessity of playing on the edge with less support ont he line tend to need to be of the type 2 variety but evewn larger, sometimes approaching 300 lbs (like JJ).

When you have a 290lb who moves like a 270lb, that doesnt mean he cant play 4-3 DE and be a Monster, it just means that a 3-4 team that needs a DE bad will rate him higher since they are harder to find.

TO me its like Suh. He isnt overly large.. even could be considered on the Light end for DTs.. but he has the Power of someone much larger. JJ Watt is the same idea, just at DE. I would rather have him than Kerrigan, but both could work in that Run Contain w Solid Pass rush position.

And I agree, if the talent is at DE at 13, and the CBs/LBs around would be a reach, Ive got no issue with a DE.

By saying he best fits a 3-4 I meant that I see him having the most success in that scheme, not that he could only be a 3-4 DE. I think he could do well as a 4-3 end but seems to have the size and skills teams look for in a 3-4 end. I think he'll probably go 17th or 18th to the Patriots or the Chargers. Cam Jordan is another versatile guy that could do either 34 or 43 end. Both athelitic guys around 290lbs. Kerrigan gained some weight to get up to 267. By comparison, Avril is listed at 260 and KVB is 278. Weight obviously isn't the only factor. I think both Watt and Kerrigan have great motors.

I agree. Id be happy with Watt or Kerrigan, especially Watt considering his combine awesomeness. And I can bet any money Mayhew and Co. didnt ignore Watts impressive combine.

Most definitely. I'm saving the projections themselves for an updated article, but suffice it to say that Von Miller looks like a stud, Watt looks like he has serious potential as a 4-3 end (even though he might ultimately be a 3-4 end), and that in general this class looks much better than last year's. Also, there's not a lot of good sleepers at the position in this draft. The Lions should either take one early or leave the position alone. I would obviously be very pleased with Watt.

Here are my updated edge rusher projections. Enjoy!

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings/2011/sackseer-lets-try-again

Just out of curiosity, where do you have Cam Jordan?

It seems that the bulk the the previous two drafts have been bucking your model, any hypothesis as to why this may be?