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 My Article on Projecting Pass Rushers in the NFL Draft 
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Post Re: My Article on Projecting Pass Rushers in the NFL Draft
m2karateman wrote:
Strawberries&Chocolat wrote:
m2karateman wrote:
That's all I know is, I watched the game last night with the Giants crushing the Bears ( :cheers: )
and Jason Pierre-Paul looked like he might turn out to be pretty good, which goes directly against the projection model.


You and I must have taken something different away from that game. This is a game where the Giants sacked Jay Cutler ten times, and not one was credited to the Giants' first-round rookie. Jason Pierre-Paul did get one pressure, where he beat the tackle with a good step outside, but he demonstrated what I thought was a lack of agility by not cutting inside quickly enough after Cutler stepped up to actually get the sack (I believe Umenyiora cleaned it up). I did not watch the whole game though, so there may have been some hits or hurries that I missed, and I admit that I may be biased because I have staked out my position on Jason Pierre-Paul.

In other news, so far the projection system is doing well, I think, although it is very, very early. The top four projected edge rushers have 3.5 sacks between them, while the bottom five have exactly 1.0 sack (Koa Misi's sack of Brett Favre).


Don't get me wrong, it's certainly not proof positive of anything. With Tuck and Osi getting the bulk of the snaps, JPP didn't get a great deal of time in the game. But from what I saw, he was getting into the backfield and at least getting the man blocking him moving backwards. I don't expect a ton of sacks from him, particularly given the people playing ahead of him. His limited time will have as much to do with a low sack total as anything else....at least this season.

No projection model is going to be 100% accurate, so please don't take this as a knock on your work. It's incredibly insightful, and I truly believe your model is very good. But, there will be the odd 99th percentile player that will buck the trends, either in a good or bad way for the team that takes him.


Certainly did not take it personally, and I did not intend for it to read that way, but from what I saw of that game I disagreed with that particular analysis. Thanks for the nice words.

Of course it's not 100% accurate, but so far JPP does not have a sack while Morgan, Graham, Worilds, and Misi all have at least one. Of course, JPP will probably get two against the Lions and throw everything off. I actually think the early results show that Jerry Hughes, rather than JPP, might be a miss. Hughes was a healthy scratch for the first two games and has not yet recorded a sack, so the returns suggest that SackSEER may have been a bit too bullish on his prospects. SackSEER seems to be right about Sergio Kindle being a bit of a head case/injury risk though.

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October 4th, 2010, 10:35 pm
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Post Re: My Article on Projecting Pass Rushers in the NFL Draft
Just curious did you ever run your program to see what Willie Young and Suh would be?


October 8th, 2010, 7:28 pm
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Post Re: My Article on Projecting Pass Rushers in the NFL Draft
Darb27 wrote:
Just curious did you ever run your program to see what Willie Young and Suh would be?


Check it out:

http://www.lionbacker.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=13518

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October 10th, 2010, 5:26 pm
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Post Re: My Article on Projecting Pass Rushers in the NFL Draft
JJ Watt=Probowler

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March 2nd, 2011, 3:18 pm
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Post Re: My Article on Projecting Pass Rushers in the NFL Draft
Stallion wrote:
JJ Watt=Probowler


The dude's a beast. Putting up those numbers at 290 pounds is very impressive. A defensive line with Avirl and Watt on the ends and Suh in between be pretty sick.

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March 2nd, 2011, 9:38 pm
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Post Re: My Article on Projecting Pass Rushers in the NFL Draft
I know it's very soon after the Combines, but were you planning to run your model with the numbers from this years DE/DT class?

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March 3rd, 2011, 9:49 am
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Post Re: My Article on Projecting Pass Rushers in the NFL Draft
I liked Watt before the combine.

Now I thionk if he is there at 13, you take him, and worry about CB AND LB later (unless Miller, Prine or Peterson are also still available - doubtful).

Watt looks like a beast, but is a production guy too, not some unheralded workout warrior.

I think he could be a DE in a 3-4 also, which is why he will get taken earlier than 13, but could see him as a dominating replacement for KVB in a year while we continue to work Avril/Speed Rushers on the opposite side.


March 3rd, 2011, 3:38 pm
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Post Re: My Article on Projecting Pass Rushers in the NFL Draft
I think Watt probably fits best as a 3-4 end. I read an article today that said Ryan Kerrigan was going to be the next KVB and it got me thinking who better to tutor him than the original KVB. I'm starting to come around to the idea of a DE at 13 depending on who is there.


March 3rd, 2011, 4:21 pm
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Post Re: My Article on Projecting Pass Rushers in the NFL Draft
Being fit to be a 3-4 end doesnt preclude him from being an all pro 4-3 DE either tho.

In general 4-3 DEs come in 2 varieties. (1) Speed Rush Focus with OK Run Support (Dwight Freeney) or (2) Run Contain with Solid Pass Rush Skills (KVB).

3-4 DEs due to the necessity of playing on the edge with less support ont he line tend to need to be of the type 2 variety but evewn larger, sometimes approaching 300 lbs (like JJ).

When you have a 290lb who moves like a 270lb, that doesnt mean he cant play 4-3 DE and be a Monster, it just means that a 3-4 team that needs a DE bad will rate him higher since they are harder to find.

TO me its like Suh. He isnt overly large.. even could be considered on the Light end for DTs.. but he has the Power of someone much larger. JJ Watt is the same idea, just at DE. I would rather have him than Kerrigan, but both could work in that Run Contain w Solid Pass rush position.

And I agree, if the talent is at DE at 13, and the CBs/LBs around would be a reach, Ive got no issue with a DE.


March 3rd, 2011, 5:36 pm
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Post Re: My Article on Projecting Pass Rushers in the NFL Draft
By saying he best fits a 3-4 I meant that I see him having the most success in that scheme, not that he could only be a 3-4 DE. I think he could do well as a 4-3 end but seems to have the size and skills teams look for in a 3-4 end. I think he'll probably go 17th or 18th to the Patriots or the Chargers. Cam Jordan is another versatile guy that could do either 34 or 43 end. Both athelitic guys around 290lbs. Kerrigan gained some weight to get up to 267. By comparison, Avril is listed at 260 and KVB is 278. Weight obviously isn't the only factor. I think both Watt and Kerrigan have great motors.


March 3rd, 2011, 7:01 pm
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Post Re: My Article on Projecting Pass Rushers in the NFL Draft
DJ-B wrote:
Being fit to be a 3-4 end doesnt preclude him from being an all pro 4-3 DE either tho.

In general 4-3 DEs come in 2 varieties. (1) Speed Rush Focus with OK Run Support (Dwight Freeney) or (2) Run Contain with Solid Pass Rush Skills (KVB).

3-4 DEs due to the necessity of playing on the edge with less support ont he line tend to need to be of the type 2 variety but evewn larger, sometimes approaching 300 lbs (like JJ).

When you have a 290lb who moves like a 270lb, that doesnt mean he cant play 4-3 DE and be a Monster, it just means that a 3-4 team that needs a DE bad will rate him higher since they are harder to find.

TO me its like Suh. He isnt overly large.. even could be considered on the Light end for DTs.. but he has the Power of someone much larger. JJ Watt is the same idea, just at DE. I would rather have him than Kerrigan, but both could work in that Run Contain w Solid Pass rush position.

And I agree, if the talent is at DE at 13, and the CBs/LBs around would be a reach, Ive got no issue with a DE.


I agree. Id be happy with Watt or Kerrigan, especially Watt considering his combine awesomeness. And I can bet any money Mayhew and Co. didnt ignore Watts impressive combine.

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March 3rd, 2011, 10:36 pm
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Post Re: My Article on Projecting Pass Rushers in the NFL Draft
m2karateman wrote:
I know it's very soon after the Combines, but were you planning to run your model with the numbers from this years DE/DT class?


Most definitely. I'm saving the projections themselves for an updated article, but suffice it to say that Von Miller looks like a stud, Watt looks like he has serious potential as a 4-3 end (even though he might ultimately be a 3-4 end), and that in general this class looks much better than last year's. Also, there's not a lot of good sleepers at the position in this draft. The Lions should either take one early or leave the position alone. I would obviously be very pleased with Watt.

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March 3rd, 2011, 11:07 pm
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Post Re: My Article on Projecting Pass Rushers in the NFL Draft
Here are my updated edge rusher projections. Enjoy!

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings/2011/sackseer-lets-try-again

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April 11th, 2011, 5:32 pm
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Post Re: My Article on Projecting Pass Rushers in the NFL Draft
Just out of curiosity, where do you have Cam Jordan?

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April 11th, 2011, 10:42 pm
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Post Re: My Article on Projecting Pass Rushers in the NFL Draft
It seems that the bulk the the previous two drafts have been bucking your model, any hypothesis as to why this may be?

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January 15th, 2012, 11:43 pm
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