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 For the Die-hards: 8-8 gets the Lions in if... 
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Post For the Die-hards: 8-8 gets the Lions in if...
I can never let go until there's no chance left :roll:
As before, I took this from another board, it's the best sorce I can find and I'm far to lazy to go through the schedual myself with the tiebreaker rules in hand :wink: for anyone like me,who just can't let go, read on. If the Lions win out to an 8-8 finish AND four of these five things happen...Playoffs baby! :lol:

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Both the 6th and 7th place teams have a one game lead and the tie breakers over the Lions. That puts the Lions two games out with three to play. Any combination of the Lions winning out and various teams choking would do it:

?Minnesota loses to either Green Bay or Washington. Detroit would have the advantage from division record or conference record (the divisional tie breaker is applied before conference tie breakers in a three way tie, and Min would thus be eliminated). Likelyhood: moderate.

?The second place NFC west team finishes at 7-9. St Louis would have to lose at least two games (Jets, Eagles, Cards). They cannot finish at 8-8 with worse than a 7-5 conference record, better than the Lions' best possible outcome of 6-6. The Seahawks, however, could finish at 8-8 with a 6-6 conference record if they lose to Arizona and Atlanta at home. Their other game is @Jets. Seahawks lose the division tie break to the Rams by merit of head to head. I don't see them losing to Arizona, but I can see St Louis losing two more games to both the Jets and the Eagles, especially without Bulger. Likelyhood: very high

?Dallas loses one game. Not only do they have head to head against us, they would have a 7-5 conference record. But don't worry about that. They will lose @Philly next week. Likelyhood: very high

?Carolina loses two games. At 8-8 they will beat us not matter how it plays out (conference record). The good news is, they play @Atlanta and @Tampa bay, and could go 7-9. Their other game is New Orleans at home. The bad news is that if Tampa wins, Tampa can overtake both them and us for the last spot. Likelyhood: moderate

?Tampa loses one game. They would finish with a 7-5 conference record if they finish 8-8. Their schedule includes 4-9 New Orleans and 6-7 Carolina at home, and @4-9 Arizona. Carolina is the showdown game. Likelyhood: moderate

We need to win out and have four of the above five things happen. I can say that there is a very good chance that four things will happen:

St Louis will lose two games, to both the Jets and Philly.
Dallas will lose to Philly.
Minnesota will lose to either Green Bay or Washington (or both)
Either Tampa loses to Carolina OR Carolina loses to Tampa and then loses @Atlanta.

Lions playoff chances are still there if they win out, and still reasonable at that.

Can't you just smell the post-season! Hey If nothing eles it makes some games I wouldn't care about a little more fun to watch. :idea:


December 14th, 2004, 4:02 am
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I like your optimism


December 14th, 2004, 5:19 am
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green bay was the toughest game left on the schedule. this weeks game is the tell all, if they get by the vikings i think they should beat the bears with little problem. the titans season is over, they are still playing well but could give it up in the season finale. there is still hope, go lions.


December 14th, 2004, 2:25 pm
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Bottom line, as I wrote in my column today, the division chase is over, the Lions cannot pass the Packers. As for the wildcard, the Lions are essentially two games down (factoring in tie breakers) with three to play. A win in the final 3 games by the Rams and Vikes ends their playoff chances.

It's time to start focusing on 2005. I'm gearing up for Free Agency and the draft.


December 15th, 2004, 10:12 am
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Pablo wrote:
Bottom line, as I wrote in my column today, the division chase is over, the Lions cannot pass the Packers. As for the wildcard, the Lions are essentially two games down (factoring in tie breakers) with three to play. A win in the final 3 games by the Rams and Vikes ends their playoff chances.

It's time to start focusing on 2005. I'm gearing up for Free Agency and the draft.
Ok! Well it seems someone didn't drink the Kool-Aid! :wink:

Seriously though, I see your point, but it's not quite as bad as you're saying. The Rams and Vikes can both still win one more each for the Lions to get in at 8-8:

-Just one win in the last three games by the Rams would put the Rams at only 7-9.

-A single win by the Vikes gives the Lions the tie-breaker in either div-record, conf-record or both (depending on who the win/loss is to) regaurdless Detroit would edge them out.

As mentioned before other things would also have to happen with Dalles, Carolina & Tampa, and ALL of this assumes that the Lions can and will win out! IMO that's the most daunting task to any Detroit playoff scenario. :shock:


December 15th, 2004, 8:04 pm
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I just don't see it happening. The Lions have dashed my hopes over the years too often, if they were to all of the sudden win 3 straight, I would be shocked. This team just doesn't reel off 3 straight wins though. The fact is we have blown too many games this year and we are basically out of the playoffs. I see us going 7-9 though, I think that was my prediction at the start of the season.


December 17th, 2004, 2:48 am
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Go Lions :( :idea: :arrow:


December 17th, 2004, 4:55 pm
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Brian, yeah I know. Deep down it's the winning out thing I have can't get behind as well. As for the help they need, IMO it is very realisic and alot of it seems even likly. It's the winning three straight I have trouble with. To me they are all "winable" games, but the Lions don't seem to win those consistantly do they :(

That said...PAYOFFS BABY! :arrow:
I just can't start talking offseason yet! For one thing my other team is the 49ers, and 9ers fans have been talking offseason since, I don't know, week 5 !? Second I havn't been able to get into the NBA this season, so it's already going to be a long wait for spring training. I will NOT let my football season end before it's completely OVER. So here's hoping they can beat the Vikes and keep stringing me along (for at least another week). :idea:


December 17th, 2004, 8:15 pm
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I could actually see the Lions winning all the rest of their games.

But the fact is, they won't. They don't do that. They are the Lions of old this season.

We haven't scored a second half touchdown in 5 weeks! 5! How's that for an offensive meltdown?

If Sherman Lewis isn't fired at the end of the season, I'll be one pissed off fan, because the offense just isn't working.

If you look at it optimistically, we could beat Minnesota. We should have beat them in Minnesota, and if you take the fact that most teams play better at home than on the road, we should be able to win today.

Chicago..we already beat them at Chicago with Grossman. Now they are starting Chad Hutchinson, LMFAO

Tennessee can't even beat Kansas City. Their team is a wreck.

We can beat the rest of the teams, but we are the Lions of old, and I don't see it happening. This team doesn't want to be in the playoffs, the attitude of the team doesn't show me that.


December 19th, 2004, 2:28 am
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Well said Brian. Your analysis of these last three games is right on target. The Lions could win all three. They probably should win all three. But the odds of them winning all three are probably 20 or 30 to 1.

I have been in Chicago for the past several weeks listening to the Chicago media talk about the Lions and Harrington. Almost to a person they all believe that the Bears will win the rematch, regardless of who they (the Bears) start at QB. I on the other hand believe that the Bears game is the most likely choice for the Lions to win one more game.

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December 19th, 2004, 12:06 pm
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