View unanswered posts | View active topics It is currently April 19th, 2014, 10:38 am



Reply to topic  [ 111 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 8  Next
 Tigers sign Prince Fielder to nine-year, $214 million deal 
Author Message
League MVP

Joined: February 11th, 2005, 3:01 pm
Posts: 3504
Location: WSU
Post Re: Tigers sign Prince Fielder to nine-year, $214 million de
Quote:
The ball will be hit his way, maybe 5% of the time. Of that 5%, he will field about 75% of them cleanly. So, he will only hurt us whatever 25% of the 5% of balls hit his way.

In other words, he's not going to be the liability you think he will be. It's not like he's moving to 2nd or Short Stop. There just aren't that many balls hit at the 3rd baseman. Especially, when the pitcher pitches away from right handed hitters and in tight on left handed hitters.

I think Verlander is gonna win 30+ for the next few years with this lineup. I would have loved it if Illitch had opened up the bank vault for Cliff Lee last year(might have been the year before- can't remember for sure.) Can you imagine this lineup with Verlander and Lee being 1,2 in the SP rotation?


I calculated on avg how many balls Inge and Cabrera got to per game during their careers at 3b projected that average to an entire season and that calculation resulted in Inge getting to 96 more balls per year. When Inge was playing elite defense a few years ago - this number would have been 140 balls per season. I was shocked to see it was that high. Then to be fair I calculated how many times Cabrera gets on base per 162 games compared to Inge and that number is 95 times per year. Seems like a fair trade but then you have to consider that really the comparison should be made bw Inge and Cabrera at 3b and then Inge and Fielder batting since Fielder is the one batting instead of Inge and the difference will be that Fielder gets on base 80 times more than Inge. So if they all play similar to career totals, this move is a negative 16 runners on base per year but doesnt tell the whole story. With Cabrera at 3b and Fielder at 1b, you would then have to compare the dropoff from VMART at DH to Delmon Young. That tradeoff is minus 42. Put it together and that becomes a net -58, in favor of our opponents. Fielder at 1b makes 8 more plays a year than Cabrera bases on their career numbers which makes this a -50 net baserunners compared to last season. Of course there are a lot of assumptions in making an analysis like that but it still doesnt look good.

If Cabrera were to DH than the whole thing changes. Fielder is + 8 on Cabrera fielding at 1b, Inge stays the same and then you compare Fielder to Martinez in the lineup and its a + 5, making it +13 compared to last season. To me that seems significant enough to use Inge at 3b, Fielder at 1b and Cabrera at DH.


January 30th, 2012, 6:36 pm
Profile
Heisman Winner
User avatar

Joined: July 14th, 2005, 11:58 am
Posts: 761
Post Re: Tigers sign Prince Fielder to nine-year, $214 million de
The Legend wrote:
Quote:
The ball will be hit his way, maybe 5% of the time. Of that 5%, he will field about 75% of them cleanly. So, he will only hurt us whatever 25% of the 5% of balls hit his way.

In other words, he's not going to be the liability you think he will be. It's not like he's moving to 2nd or Short Stop. There just aren't that many balls hit at the 3rd baseman. Especially, when the pitcher pitches away from right handed hitters and in tight on left handed hitters.

I think Verlander is gonna win 30+ for the next few years with this lineup. I would have loved it if Illitch had opened up the bank vault for Cliff Lee last year(might have been the year before- can't remember for sure.) Can you imagine this lineup with Verlander and Lee being 1,2 in the SP rotation?


I calculated on avg how many balls Inge and Cabrera got to per game during their careers at 3b projected that average to an entire season and that calculation resulted in Inge getting to 96 more balls per year. When Inge was playing elite defense a few years ago - this number would have been 140 balls per season. I was shocked to see it was that high. Then to be fair I calculated how many times Cabrera gets on base per 162 games compared to Inge and that number is 95 times per year. Seems like a fair trade but then you have to consider that really the comparison should be made bw Inge and Cabrera at 3b and then Inge and Fielder batting since Fielder is the one batting instead of Inge and the difference will be that Fielder gets on base 80 times more than Inge. So if they all play similar to career totals, this move is a negative 16 runners on base per year but doesnt tell the whole story. With Cabrera at 3b and Fielder at 1b, you would then have to compare the dropoff from VMART at DH to Delmon Young. That tradeoff is minus 42. Put it together and that becomes a net -58, in favor of our opponents. Fielder at 1b makes 8 more plays a year than Cabrera bases on their career numbers which makes this a -50 net baserunners compared to last season. Of course there are a lot of assumptions in making an analysis like that but it still doesnt look good.

If Cabrera were to DH than the whole thing changes. Fielder is + 8 on Cabrera fielding at 1b, Inge stays the same and then you compare Fielder to Martinez in the lineup and its a + 5, making it +13 compared to last season. To me that seems significant enough to use Inge at 3b, Fielder at 1b and Cabrera at DH.


Interesting, seems like "fuzzy" math, but it's neat to look at it this way.

That said Inge isn't as good of a defender that he's made out to be.


January 30th, 2012, 7:27 pm
Profile
Veteran General Manager
User avatar

Joined: May 7th, 2005, 3:25 pm
Posts: 7120
Location: Earth/Sagittarius Dwarf Galaxy
Post Re: Tigers sign Prince Fielder to nine-year, $214 million de
The Legend wrote:
Quote:
The ball will be hit his way, maybe 5% of the time. Of that 5%, he will field about 75% of them cleanly. So, he will only hurt us whatever 25% of the 5% of balls hit his way.

In other words, he's not going to be the liability you think he will be. It's not like he's moving to 2nd or Short Stop. There just aren't that many balls hit at the 3rd baseman. Especially, when the pitcher pitches away from right handed hitters and in tight on left handed hitters.

I think Verlander is gonna win 30+ for the next few years with this lineup. I would have loved it if Illitch had opened up the bank vault for Cliff Lee last year(might have been the year before- can't remember for sure.) Can you imagine this lineup with Verlander and Lee being 1,2 in the SP rotation?


I calculated on avg how many balls Inge and Cabrera got to per game during their careers at 3b projected that average to an entire season and that calculation resulted in Inge getting to 96 more balls per year. When Inge was playing elite defense a few years ago - this number would have been 140 balls per season. I was shocked to see it was that high. Then to be fair I calculated how many times Cabrera gets on base per 162 games compared to Inge and that number is 95 times per year. Seems like a fair trade but then you have to consider that really the comparison should be made bw Inge and Cabrera at 3b and then Inge and Fielder batting since Fielder is the one batting instead of Inge and the difference will be that Fielder gets on base 80 times more than Inge. So if they all play similar to career totals, this move is a negative 16 runners on base per year but doesnt tell the whole story. With Cabrera at 3b and Fielder at 1b, you would then have to compare the dropoff from VMART at DH to Delmon Young. That tradeoff is minus 42. Put it together and that becomes a net -58, in favor of our opponents. Fielder at 1b makes 8 more plays a year than Cabrera bases on their career numbers which makes this a -50 net baserunners compared to last season. Of course there are a lot of assumptions in making an analysis like that but it still doesnt look good.

If Cabrera were to DH than the whole thing changes. Fielder is + 8 on Cabrera fielding at 1b, Inge stays the same and then you compare Fielder to Martinez in the lineup and its a + 5, making it +13 compared to last season. To me that seems significant enough to use Inge at 3b, Fielder at 1b and Cabrera at DH.


If both Fielder and Cabrera get on base more than Inge, Then How on Earth do you get a MINUS 16 runners with them in the lineup instead of Inge? Are you using new math?


January 30th, 2012, 9:39 pm
Profile
RIP Killer
User avatar

Joined: January 26th, 2005, 9:34 pm
Posts: 10270
Location: Sycamore, IL
Post Re: Tigers sign Prince Fielder to nine-year, $214 million de
Because apparently miggy will have a 0.700 fielding % and a -20 uzr, according to legend

_________________
_____
I have no faith this team will win a game the rest of the year. The kitties finish at 7-9 and Miss the playoffs as GB wins out and takes it from the kitties.
Image


January 30th, 2012, 11:06 pm
Profile
Varsity 1st Team

Joined: February 10th, 2011, 4:08 am
Posts: 267
Post Re: Tigers sign Prince Fielder to nine-year, $214 million de
You guys are gonna be shocked when u see miggy this spring.i saw him in late december at the sportsplex in miami and he had dropped atleast 40 pounds.getting thrown out at home against the rangers peed him off badly.


January 31st, 2012, 8:47 am
Profile
Afghan Allstar
User avatar

Joined: January 9th, 2006, 1:16 pm
Posts: 564
Location: San Diego, CA
Post Re: Tigers sign Prince Fielder to nine-year, $214 million de
Dombrowski had said that he had already lost quite a bit of weight.


January 31st, 2012, 9:25 am
Profile
Varsity 1st Team

Joined: February 10th, 2011, 4:08 am
Posts: 267
Post Re: Tigers sign Prince Fielder to nine-year, $214 million de
I think miggy if he keeps the weight in check he will be solid at 3rd.and if he works out there we can start moving the kid over to short.as i think he will get a shot at the bigs in late !2013.


January 31st, 2012, 2:03 pm
Profile
Heisman Winner
User avatar

Joined: July 14th, 2005, 11:58 am
Posts: 761
Post Re: Tigers sign Prince Fielder to nine-year, $214 million de
allenslions wrote:
I think miggy if he keeps the weight in check he will be solid at 3rd.and if he works out there we can start moving the kid over to short.as i think he will get a shot at the bigs in late !2013.


are you referring to Nick Castellanos? My understanding is he won't be ready for the bigs until 2014 at the very earliest. He's only 19 right now.


January 31st, 2012, 2:22 pm
Profile
League MVP

Joined: February 11th, 2005, 3:01 pm
Posts: 3504
Location: WSU
Post Re: Tigers sign Prince Fielder to nine-year, $214 million de
BillySims wrote:
The Legend wrote:
Quote:
The ball will be hit his way, maybe 5% of the time. Of that 5%, he will field about 75% of them cleanly. So, he will only hurt us whatever 25% of the 5% of balls hit his way.

In other words, he's not going to be the liability you think he will be. It's not like he's moving to 2nd or Short Stop. There just aren't that many balls hit at the 3rd baseman. Especially, when the pitcher pitches away from right handed hitters and in tight on left handed hitters.

I think Verlander is gonna win 30+ for the next few years with this lineup. I would have loved it if Illitch had opened up the bank vault for Cliff Lee last year(might have been the year before- can't remember for sure.) Can you imagine this lineup with Verlander and Lee being 1,2 in the SP rotation?


I calculated on avg how many balls Inge and Cabrera got to per game during their careers at 3b projected that average to an entire season and that calculation resulted in Inge getting to 96 more balls per year. When Inge was playing elite defense a few years ago - this number would have been 140 balls per season. I was shocked to see it was that high. Then to be fair I calculated how many times Cabrera gets on base per 162 games compared to Inge and that number is 95 times per year. Seems like a fair trade but then you have to consider that really the comparison should be made bw Inge and Cabrera at 3b and then Inge and Fielder batting since Fielder is the one batting instead of Inge and the difference will be that Fielder gets on base 80 times more than Inge. So if they all play similar to career totals, this move is a negative 16 runners on base per year but doesnt tell the whole story. With Cabrera at 3b and Fielder at 1b, you would then have to compare the dropoff from VMART at DH to Delmon Young. That tradeoff is minus 42. Put it together and that becomes a net -58, in favor of our opponents. Fielder at 1b makes 8 more plays a year than Cabrera bases on their career numbers which makes this a -50 net baserunners compared to last season. Of course there are a lot of assumptions in making an analysis like that but it still doesnt look good.

If Cabrera were to DH than the whole thing changes. Fielder is + 8 on Cabrera fielding at 1b, Inge stays the same and then you compare Fielder to Martinez in the lineup and its a + 5, making it +13 compared to last season. To me that seems significant enough to use Inge at 3b, Fielder at 1b and Cabrera at DH.


If both Fielder and Cabrera get on base more than Inge, Then How on Earth do you get a MINUS 16 runners with them in the lineup instead of Inge? Are you using new math?



Like I explained - I looked at how many plays per game Inge and Cabrera get to per season at 3B. Hugely in favor of Inge. Then have to compare the new DH being Delmon Young at best and not Victor Martinez. Another big dropoff in runners reaching base. That Fielder gets on base more than Inge is good but it doesnt make up for the difference in base runners we will allow.

Definitely fuzzy math bc of the assumptions mostly about the pitching staffs and how many ground ball outs they get but Im not prepared to look up and see the ground ball rates for pitchers from the last 6-7 years.

To CO2 - Im not interested in fielding percentage as much as I am how many balls the player makes a play on. Last time I went to a game with Miggy at 3b it was in Chicago and he blew two plays on foul balls not called errors. Fielding percentage only tells you how well the player executes on balls he can get to and tells you nothing about range which is the more important factor. My analysis doesnt use fielding percentage at all - if it did the numbers would be more in favor of an Inge at 3b and Cabby/Fielder at 1b/dh lineup.


January 31st, 2012, 6:21 pm
Profile
Post Re: Tigers sign Prince Fielder to nine-year, $214 million de
My early prediction on the trade is that:
1) Miggy is going to be horrible at 3rd
2) He will turn his frustration outward and blame others, namely losing his position at first
3) There will be a rift between Miggy and Prince, even if it is small
4) Neither will want to DH as their primary role
5) Miggy will be the DH, reluctantly, but his offensive numbers will not be as good as they were
6) There will be talk of Detroit needing to trade one of them
7) Much like the Renteria deal, we won't be as good as people think


February 1st, 2012, 2:45 pm
Heisman Winner
User avatar

Joined: July 14th, 2005, 11:58 am
Posts: 761
Post Re: Tigers sign Prince Fielder to nine-year, $214 million de
wjb21ndtown wrote:
My early prediction on the trade is that:
1) Miggy is going to be horrible at 3rd
2) He will turn his frustration outward and blame others, namely losing his position at first
3) There will be a rift between Miggy and Prince, even if it is small
4) Neither will want to DH as their primary role
5) Miggy will be the DH, reluctantly, but his offensive numbers will not be as good as they were
6) There will be talk of Detroit needing to trade one of them
7) Much like the Renteria deal, we won't be as good as people think


Of course you think that, it would surprise me more if you thought it would work out.

NB The Renteria deal was probably the worst deal the Tigers ever made, and you didn't have to be a baseball insider to know that before Renteria played a game with the Tigers. He was a name people knew, that's the only reason why people thought it put them over the top.


February 1st, 2012, 2:56 pm
Profile
RIP Killer
User avatar

Joined: January 26th, 2005, 9:34 pm
Posts: 10270
Location: Sycamore, IL
Post Re: Tigers sign Prince Fielder to nine-year, $214 million de
Of course, the flipside is the slew of morons who bitched about how bad the fister trade was...that we gave up excellent positional talent that we lack in the minors. Fisty was what, 8-1 with a 1.96 era after the trade? Better than verlander numbers.

_________________
_____
I have no faith this team will win a game the rest of the year. The kitties finish at 7-9 and Miss the playoffs as GB wins out and takes it from the kitties.
Image


February 1st, 2012, 4:57 pm
Profile
Post Re: Tigers sign Prince Fielder to nine-year, $214 million de
conversion02 wrote:
Of course, the flipside is the slew of morons who bitched about how bad the fister trade was...that we gave up excellent positional talent that we lack in the minors. Fisty was what, 8-1 with a 1.96 era after the trade? Better than verlander numbers.



Personally, I loved the Fister trade. I just wanted to document the way I feel about this one now, so when things fall apart in July I can say... =; :-({|= :finger:


February 1st, 2012, 5:12 pm
Team MVP
User avatar

Joined: February 20th, 2007, 10:51 pm
Posts: 3257
Location: Saginaw, MI
Post Re: Tigers sign Prince Fielder to nine-year, $214 million de
wjb21ndtown wrote:
conversion02 wrote:
Of course, the flipside is the slew of morons who bitched about how bad the fister trade was...that we gave up excellent positional talent that we lack in the minors. Fisty was what, 8-1 with a 1.96 era after the trade? Better than verlander numbers.



Personally, I loved the Fister trade. I just wanted to document the way I feel about this one now, so when things fall apart in July I can say... =; :-({|= :finger:



Lol ill remember. But im optimistic about it all.

_________________
April 22nd, 2010 @ 7:44p.m. "The Detroit Lions select...Ndamukong Suh". Those are some beautiful words.


Lionbacker2 Fantasy Champion 2011


February 1st, 2012, 8:29 pm
Profile
League MVP

Joined: February 11th, 2005, 3:01 pm
Posts: 3504
Location: WSU
Post Re: Tigers sign Prince Fielder to nine-year, $214 million de
signing fielder = good idea and trying to move cabrera to third and play fielder at first = good idea with a high likelihood to ultimately fail. if cabrera doesnt hold up there its not an epic failure of a signing by adjusting and putting inge or kelly back at third. the failure would be continuing to play cabrera at 3b despite repeated incompetence there. i dont have a problem with them trying this experiment but Im just curious to see how stubborn they are going to be trying to make this work.


February 1st, 2012, 11:18 pm
Profile
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic   [ 111 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 8  Next

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group.
Designed by STSoftware.