I thought that you folks might be interested in this analysis from my new blog that is based on my new statistics-based program for projecting the NFL Draft (i.e., a fancy pants mock draft!). I use my program to simulate the NFL Draft, and based on the simulations, you can infer which players are likely to be available to the Lions at No. 23. Here's a sample:

Dre Kirkpatrick CB 58.6%
Stephon Gilmore CB 59.2%
Peter Konz IL 59.3%

The full list of possible Lions draft targets is here:
http://themocktopus.blogspot.com/2012/04/detroit-lions-most-likely-to-be.html

Thoughts? Is this good news for the Lions?

interesting but in reality there is probably a 100% chance that Konz is available with the Lions pick

Interesting figures, but I dont understand how it is even possible to calculate percentages for an NFL Draft. As a matter of fact, Ill even say its impossible.

Matt Kalil 13% chance of remaining at 23?

Yeah not even going to look at the rest.

I think the truth is that the only CB that might be there at 23 who is considered a top prospect is Janoris
Jenkins. Not that I want to spend that pick on him tho. CB is a premium position, and if Krikpatrick and Gilmore are as good as people say, they will be gone before Detroit gets to pick by quite a margin. They just do not last on the draft day much past 15 or so.

I agree, that was my whole point when AllensLions said that Kirkpatrick would DEFINITELY be there when we pick. I just don't see it.

Definitely is a strong word. It's impossible to project, even the day before, which prospects considered first round talent will definitely be there when the Lions pick.

However, cornerback is a position that has seemingly started to be devalued in recent years. Teams are finding that an improved pass rush will improve their pass defense moreso than an improved secondary. That's not to say that the Lions should avoid picking a CB, but a team with a need for both a coverage guy and a pass rusher will typically take the pass rusher. Many folks (including myself) have the Titans picking a corner in the first round. However, that is not a lock for them. They still need defensive line help, and interior offensive line help. They have Derrick Morgan and Kamerion Wimbley as their starting DEs, but Morgan gets hurt a bit, and Wimbley hasn't played as a DE in the NFL all that much. They also lack depth at the position. They could, therefore, decide that a pass rusher is a better pick in round one than a corner. If that is the case, there may be a shot of Kirkpatrick falling to the Lions.

The other factor is whether or not Buffalo is bluffing about their interest in Gilmore. If they pick him at #10, that pushes down someone that was not foreseen as dropping too far. This is a very tough draft to predict beyond the sixth spot.

For what it's worth, the Mocktopus currently has the Lions' most likely selections in this order:

Dre Kirkpatrick
Stephon Gilmore
Janoris Jenkins
Nick Perry

I would be happy with all those...except Gilmore.

Really?

Also, nice to see you again Stallion, its been a while since I've seen your name (maybe im wrong?)

I kind of agree that Gilmore may be over rated. Just a month ago he was seen as a late first rounder. How he's suddenly getting top 10 hype. Personally, I am VERY leery about players who suddenly rise as the draft comes closer. In this draft, it is guys like Steven Gilmore and Chander Jones. I've found that players who drop a few spots, even into the top of the second round over the course of time, usually turn out to be pretty good players, versus guys who suddenly rise into the midst of the first round.

If Gilmore were to fall to the Lions, I wouldn't have a problem with them taking him. But only if Kirkpatrick was already off the board.

I agree, especially about the Chandler Jones part.

Though I wonder also why Gilmore all of a sudden is this great player, I wouldnt mind if the Lions took him because I think he fits what our CBs are asked to do very well.

I agree. IMO he looks soft. I'd be happy with Kirkpatrick, but I would prefer we go OL (maybe even trade down and take OL), if Dre is gone. I don't see why we'd draft a DE, unless we can move Avril. I realize that Avril may not be here next year, and I realize KVBs contract expires soon, but IMO Willie Young should be able to step up after this year, and I'm all for drafting Avril's replacement next year. I just really don't think we get much better drafting a DE this year. It's more of a "future progress" pick, when, IMO we need to get better now and make a real playoff/SB run right now with what we have.

A player's "sudden" rise in the week or two leading up the draft usually isn't a sudden rise at all. Rather, it usually represents what the teams' boards have looked like all along and the media types are just beginning to learn of it. I've heard/read a lot recently regarding Gilmore and the possibility that he could be a top-10 (maybe even top-5!) pick. Apparently, there are NFL teams who have him ranked higher than Claiborne on their board. It's all speculation at this point. I guess we'll find out soon enough.



Care to expand? Soft in what way? I saw Gilmore cover Julio Jones and A.J. Green last year...looked solid in coverage to me. He's a good tackler too (twice as many tackles as Kirkpatrick for those who like stats). In this poll, I voted for Gilmore if he's available so I'm curious about what others dislike about him.

I think that Gilmore is just as physical, if not more so, than Kirkpatrick. Both of them concern me though with their tackling ability. They seem to want to go for the knockout hit instead of wrapping up. That's what I appreciated about Eric Wright. I thought he was a very good open field tackler. These two kids want the highlight reel stuff instead of being solid and consistent tacklers.