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 Avril's Contract: Within 2 weeks? 
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Play by Play Announcer - Al Michaels

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Post Re: Avril's Contract: Within 2 weeks?
Can we quit the talk about Avril demanding $12M? I confess I posted this back on page 7 or so:

Quote:
Jason LaCanfora essentially reported that the NFL.com story is false and that Avril's agent is using Calais Campbell and Tamba Hali as reference points in negotiations. Those numbers are closer to $12M per year.


And this $12M/year figure has been repeated several times on this forum in an effort to paint Avril as out of touch with his value.

However, my math was off when I posted the story from LaCanfora--and so is the math of anyone suggesting Avril demanded $12M or more. $12M would be the Charles Johnson deal, but that's apparently not what Avril's agent was using in negotiations.

Calais Campbell's deal is 5 years/$55M, about $31M guaranteed (avg. $11M/year). Hali's deal is 5 years/$57.5M, $35M guaranteed (avg. $11.5M/year). We know for sure the Lions and Avril agreed to a duration of 3 years. Now, about Avril's demands...let's put ourselves in a similar situation:

Imagine that you are offered a raise at your job, only to find out that another employee is getting a bigger raise than you. What's worse is that employee's production is inferior to yours over the same length of time! Assuming you have enough leverage to challenge your employer, would you negotiate for a bigger raise? Or would you simply accept the raise out of gratitude, knowing that your inferior is taking home more money?

That's the situation Avril is in when the Lions ask him to take a contract of lesser value than Calais Campbell. Whether we, as fans, think Avril is as good as Campbell is irrelevant. We have to consider it from Avril's perspective: Avril's production in terms of sacks and forced fumbles over his career (30 sacks, 14 FF) is significantly better than Campbell's (21 sacks, 4 FF), and Avril has played in six fewer games. Avril and his agent likely believe that Avril's market is someplace above Campbell's deal but below Hali's deal.

Again, I'm not saying Avril is better than Campbell. I'm simply pointing out what he and his agent likely believe, and they have good evidence to support their stance.

So the Lions offered Avril a 3-year/$30M deal with $20M in guarantees. Personally, I think that was a good deal. However, if I'm Avril, I'm not going to play for less than Calais Campbell under any circumstances. If I'm Avril, using Calais Campbell's deal as a guideline, I would agree to a 3-yr/$33M deal with $22M guaranteed. The Lions' offer was close but I understand why Avril dug in his heels and refused to play for less than Campbell.

We can argue in the abstract about Avril's real market value but the truth is none of us can say with any certainty how much he's worth until he actually becomes a free agent in March 2013 and he has a chance to receive multiple offers. We know this for sure--he's worth at least $10.6M this year, which is proven by the Lions' willingness to pay him that amount.

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August 7th, 2012, 1:07 am
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Post Re: Avril's Contract: Within 2 weeks?
While I certainly understand and respect Avril's stance on trying to get the most out of the contract that will put him through his prime playing years, I just think that the team could benefit more by spending the money elsewhere.

There's too many mouths to feed next year. Delmas, Alphonso Smith, Spivey, Levy, Durant, Corey Williams, Sammie Hill, Cherilus. Granted Smith, Spivey, Cherilus, and possibly Levy probably could deserve to be free agents after this season. Personally I think they'd be better off rolling the dice with LoJack and Young and even consider drafting another DE if need be.

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August 7th, 2012, 1:56 am
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Post Re: Avril's Contract: Within 2 weeks?
regularjoe12 wrote:
BillySims wrote:
Of course, the Avril haters will just come up with some semantics about why those real stats don't mean squat.



Billy I don't think you understand. I don't think ther is much in the line of hating on Avril, just feelings that 12mil can be better used elsewhere an that the drop in talent behind him isn't nearly as steep as you'd like to believe. I personally believe that if he could stay healthy lo-jack could end with a 8-10 sack season. Not quite as good as Avril but at a fraction of the cost. Well worth it IMO.


Exactly.

Also, for the Calais Campbell Production vs $$$ Comparison...

Calais Campbell - Dan Williams - Darnell Docket
Sam Acho - Paris Lennon - Daryl Washington - O'Brien Schofield

VS.

Cliff Avril - Ndamukong Suh - Cory Williams - KVB - (Rotation Including: Willie Young, LoJack, SLH & Nick Fairley)
Justin Durant - Stephen Tulloch - DeAndre Levy

Yeah, Nuff said.


August 7th, 2012, 2:35 am
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Post Re: Avril's Contract: Within 2 weeks?
Quote:
Exactly.

Also, for the Calais Campbell Production vs $$$ Comparison...

Calais Campbell - Dan Williams - Darnell Docket
Sam Acho - Paris Lennon - Daryl Washington - O'Brien Schofield

VS.

Cliff Avril - Ndamukong Suh - Cory Williams - KVB - (Rotation Including: Willie Young, LoJack, SLH & Nick Fairley)
Justin Durant - Stephen Tulloch - DeAndre Levy

Yeah, Nuff said.


nice try except that hasnt been the situation the entire time period from 2008-2011. In fact Arizona has had more sacks as a team than the Lions every one of those seasons except 2010.


August 7th, 2012, 8:11 am
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Post Re: Avril's Contract: Within 2 weeks?
mwill2 wrote:
Imagine that you are offered a raise at your job, only to find out that another employee is getting a bigger raise than you. What's worse is that employee's production is inferior to yours over the same length of time! Assuming you have enough leverage to challenge your employer, would you negotiate for a bigger raise? Or would you simply accept the raise out of gratitude, knowing that your inferior is taking home more money?
With respect, in this scenario Calais isn't a coworker of Cliff's as he works for a different company (Arizona). Does this mean that I should hold out if someone at an opposing company is getting paid more than me?

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August 7th, 2012, 9:36 am
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Post Re: Avril's Contract: Within 2 weeks?
TheRealWags wrote:
mwill2 wrote:
Imagine that you are offered a raise at your job, only to find out that another employee is getting a bigger raise than you. What's worse is that employee's production is inferior to yours over the same length of time! Assuming you have enough leverage to challenge your employer, would you negotiate for a bigger raise? Or would you simply accept the raise out of gratitude, knowing that your inferior is taking home more money?
With respect, in this scenario Calais isn't a coworker of Cliff's as he works for a different company (Arizona). Does this mean that I should hold out if someone at an opposing company is getting paid more than me?


Excellent point. Another point to make...Calais Campbell plays an entirely different position than Cliff. DE in a 34 means you don't get the stats a 43 DE gets in terms of sacks and forced fumbles. However, that doesn't make the player of lesser value to their particular team.

Same thing with Tamba Hali. He is now playing OLB in a 34 defense. His stats won't be the same as Cliffs, since he is asked to do more as a linebacker than a DE is asked to do in the Lions defense.

And you and others keep making the same comparisons over and over to Campbell and Hali and their contracts. The point has already been established that:

A) The Lions could not afford that same size contract on a per year average
B) The Lions offered, on a percentage basis, more guaranteed money than New Orleans offered Drew Brees (67% of face value guaranteed for Cliff, 60% of face value guaranteed for Drew)
C) The Lions couldn't amply backload the contract due to other players whose deals are ending in the next two years that need to be retained

Cliff didn't take the deal, that's fine. He decided to wait until after his sons first birthday to report, that's fine. I was only upset with him when it appeared he was talking about holding out for a lengthy amount of time. He's in, so I'm OK with him. At least, that's my standpoint.

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August 7th, 2012, 11:23 am
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Post Re: Avril's Contract: Within 2 weeks?
Guys, you are missing the point entirely. IMAGINE YOURSELF AS AVRIL for just a moment. This is particularly useful if you've been bashing Avril for declining the Lions' offer.

1. If you are Avril, would you admit that your production was a result of Suh and Corey Williams' talent, not yours? In a negotiation, would you really agree with your employer when they say "I know you produced more than Campbell but your numbers are inflated"? Again, I agree that the Lions are justified in making this argument but if you imagine yourself in Avril's shoes, would you concede that your production is inflated and that you aren't as good as your numbers indicate? Be honest with yourself.

2. While the "working for the same employer" analogy isn't identical to Avril's situation, it serves the purpose just fine. No analogy with withhold that kind of nit-picking. Agents use other players' contracts in negotiations--that is a fact. According to LaCanfora, Avril's agent used Campbell and Hali as comps. I understand the difference between a 3-4 and 4-3 DE. However, for the sake of this discussion, that distinction is irrelevant. Also note that the league lumps 3-4 and 4-3 DEs together when it comes to franchise tag values. In this regard, Avril likely views Campbell as a peer who has the same job, the same work experience, and lesser production.

3. If my numbers are correct, the two sides were very close together. $20M guaranteed was the offer and $21.5M likely would have gotten the deal done (assuming they were using Campbell's contract as a comp). If that's true, the theory that the Lions couldn't afford Avril's asking price doesn't hold up. The difference between the two deals is negligible. Of course Avril might have been asking for more but there's no evidence to support that theory. However, I concede this part of the equation is based only on informed speculation, as neither side has given any indication of what Avril's asking price was.

Again, I completely agree that the Lions made a fair offer. I just think it's important for the Avril bashers to see that the guy has a legitimate case for refusing the deal they offered.

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August 7th, 2012, 12:42 pm
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Post Re: Avril's Contract: Within 2 weeks?
Quote:
A) The Lions could not afford that same size contract on a per year average


you keep saying this but if you re looking at it from Avril's perspective you wouldnt give a f... i wouldnt sell my car to someone for a lower price bc they cant afford it - id wait for someone who could pay its value...

Quote:
B) The Lions offered, on a percentage basis, more guaranteed money than New Orleans offered Drew Brees (67% of face value guaranteed for Cliff, 60% of face value guaranteed for Drew)


also irrelevant, brees is older with an injury history and also signed a longer contract with much more money guaranteed. % face value guaranteed...gimme a break, is a 2 yr 18 million deal fully guaranteed deal better than what cliff got offerred?

Quote:
C) The Lions couldn't amply backload the contract due to other players whose deals are ending in the next two years that need to be retained


again irrelevant from the player's perspective, smart by the lions.

none of ur stated reasons justify bashing avril for not taking the supposedly offerred contract.


August 7th, 2012, 12:59 pm
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Post Re: Avril's Contract: Within 2 weeks?
Let m e ask you fellas something, what's more important, the individual, or the team? From all appearances Avril seems to think its t.he individual. Guys who are re working their contract every year ( I.e. Stafford) seems to understand that the team is more important.

Is 30 mill over three years taking food off his table? Will this kinda chump change cause him to not live a lavish lifestyle and still be able to set his children and grand children up for life? You guys want to see avrils view...let me sum it up for you..." I want more and I don't care what it costs you".


End of story.

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August 7th, 2012, 2:00 pm
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Post Re: Avril's Contract: Within 2 weeks?
regularjoe12 wrote:
Let m e ask you fellas something, what's more important, the individual, or the team? From all appearances Avril seems to think its t.he individual. Guys who are re working their contract every year ( I.e. Stafford) seems to understand that the team is more important.

Is 30 mill over three years taking food off his table? Will this kinda chump change cause him to not live a lavish lifestyle and still be able to set his children and grand children up for life? You guys want to see avrils view...let me sum it up for you..." I want more and I don't care what it costs you".


End of story.


Good post.

Here's another thing for those of you saying "look at it from Cliffs point of view"....

From his point of view, he took $10.6M to play this year instead of $20M. There is a risk that he is accepting, and he knows it. But he is accepting that risk in hopes that next year he can negotiate a much bigger deal, either with the Lions or with another team.

As a fan of the LIONS (I am not a fan of Avril, though I cheer for him as a member of the Lions) it concerns me as to whether he will have that injury concern at the back of his brain when he is playing this year. Does he play full out to maximize his value and risk significant injury? Or does he play it safe and make sure he is healthy coming into free agency? It's something to consider.

Another thing to consider....the Lions offered him a three year deal, which means he would be 29 when that new deal would have expired. He would still be considered a player in his prime at that point, should he stay healthy. He could have cashed in on an even bigger deal in 2015, when the salary cap would be much higher than it is now. However, next season if he looks to get a deal similar to Campbell or Hali, then he'd be facing a deal that would be five years...making him 32 when it expires. At that point, unless he plays at an elite level for most of those years, he won't be getting a chance to cash in on being a player in his prime. He'd be staring at deals worth significantly less than what he would see at age 29.

As RJ said above...we are Lions fans, not Avril fans. We are looking at it from the team perspective because that is who we cheer for. I am happy he's back in camp. But now we know EXACTLY where his priorities lie, and it's not with the team. Some NFL players accept less money to play on the team they want, for various reasons. Highest among them is the chance to play on a team that has a very real shot at making the Superbowl. For some players it's the chance of playing for a particular coach, or with a particular team mate. They aren't all strictly about the money.

And I'd be willing to bet that well over half the players in the NFL would have jumped at the chance to have a $20M guaranteed offer in front of them for just a three year deal. I know I would...if you really want to know my perspective.

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August 7th, 2012, 2:37 pm
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Post Re: Avril's Contract: Within 2 weeks?
yes of course half the players would have jumped at that offer, then again, avril is better than half and probably 3/4 of the players in the league...great point!!!

again he didnt turn down $20 million and choose $0, he chose $10.6 mill for 1 year with a chance at free agency over $30 million/3yrs.

Quote:
Let m e ask you fellas something, what's more important, the individual, or the team? From all appearances Avril seems to think its t.he individual. Guys who are re working their contract every year ( I.e. Stafford) seems to understand that the team is more important.

Is 30 mill over three years taking food off his table? Will this kinda chump change cause him to not live a lavish lifestyle and still be able to set his children and grand children up for life? You guys want to see avrils view...let me sum it up for you..." I want more and I don't care what it costs you".


End of story.


you should get your facts straight bc nobody on the current lions has reworked there deal to take less money. the re-working of stafford and suh s contract accelerated there salary into a bonus so that the salary cap figure could be decreased by being spread over the remainder of the contract. they didnt take a dollar less and actually got their salary up front rather than waiting for paychecks throughout the season. easy to make the team choice when it benefits you. stafford and suh are actually closer to an example of what was wrong with the system (luckily they are great players not busts like c rogers/harrington) - league high type pay to rookies who have proven nothing outside of college. avril a 3rd rd pick was playing for essentially the same money as other recent 3rd rd picks - andre fluellen, amari spievey, derrick williams, etc and - and has had to work for his big payday. this dichotomy is the reason why the CBA included the rookie contract clauses. avril not getting the deal he wanted is more a consequence of the lions being stuck under the old system with regards to stafford/suh's contracts causing cap problems then the Lions not wanting him. anyway if you want to fault avril you might as well fault stafford/suh/calvin - 300k/yr from each of them could ve probably gotten avril signed at 11 mill/yr. im not suggesting that they should do that but your post suggests that is what other lions have done in the recent past which is just not true.


August 7th, 2012, 3:29 pm
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Post Re: Avril's Contract: Within 2 weeks?
TheRealWags wrote:
mwill2 wrote:
Imagine that you are offered a raise at your job, only to find out that another employee is getting a bigger raise than you. What's worse is that employee's production is inferior to yours over the same length of time! Assuming you have enough leverage to challenge your employer, would you negotiate for a bigger raise? Or would you simply accept the raise out of gratitude, knowing that your inferior is taking home more money?
With respect, in this scenario Calais isn't a coworker of Cliff's as he works for a different company (Arizona). Does this mean that I should hold out if someone at an opposing company is getting paid more than me?



this just highlights that cliff didnt get offerred market value (if cliff hits open market - he could find an equal employer), he got offerred what the lions were able to pay him. it d be nice if stores used that policy, wouldnt it? "oh i cant afford that $1100 computer i can only give you $1000" - might work in some places but generally that is not how things work in this country.


August 7th, 2012, 3:38 pm
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Post Re: Avril's Contract: Within 2 weeks?
The Legend wrote:
TheRealWags wrote:
mwill2 wrote:
Imagine that you are offered a raise at your job, only to find out that another employee is getting a bigger raise than you. What's worse is that employee's production is inferior to yours over the same length of time! Assuming you have enough leverage to challenge your employer, would you negotiate for a bigger raise? Or would you simply accept the raise out of gratitude, knowing that your inferior is taking home more money?
With respect, in this scenario Calais isn't a coworker of Cliff's as he works for a different company (Arizona). Does this mean that I should hold out if someone at an opposing company is getting paid more than me?



this just highlights that cliff didnt get offerred market value (if cliff hits open market - he could find an equal employer), he got offerred what the lions were able to pay him. it d be nice if stores used that policy, wouldnt it? "oh i cant afford that $1100 computer i can only give you $1000" - might work in some places but generally that is not how things work in this country.



Legend, I think you're being ridiculous. The amount here is negligible (around 10%), and Cliff is taking a $12 million dollar risk holding out for that extra 10%, hurting the team, and hurting his career. Not only would he get to play next to Suh for that 10% discount, but he would also get to play on a playoff caliber team, in a defensive scheme that inflates his stats.

Seems stupid on his part if you ask me.

As far as "market value" goes, I doubt that many teams would have given either of those respective players the type of deal that they signed. It's been said and proven that untalented teams HAVE to over-pay to acquire and keep talent around. We're not there anymore. There's no "negative" to coming here any longer, at least as an organization. Just because a couple of teams over-paid these guys, it doesn't mean that every team should over pay similarly situated talent. And, I don't believe the "fair market" is what you or he thinks it is regarding his play - he was essentially on the "fair market" and couldn't find a deal.


August 7th, 2012, 3:54 pm
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Post Re: Avril's Contract: Within 2 weeks?
there is a chance you leave the game on a stretcher without use of limbs so i cant be mad at the guy for wanting as much as possible. it doesnt matter how good WE think he is. bottom line: he's in camp now

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August 7th, 2012, 8:24 pm
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Post Re: Avril's Contract: Within 2 weeks?
Killwill25 wrote:
there is a chance you leave the game on a stretcher without use of limbs so i cant be mad at the guy for wanting as much as possible. it doesnt matter how good WE think he is. bottom line: he's in camp now


Bingo, Legend and Killwill have this one pegged. Fans will be upset that Avril is "hurting the team" but in the end the players view this as a business first and quiet frankly they should. It's a risk that Avril is taking but in his mind it's a risk he's willing to take, you can't hold that against him.


August 7th, 2012, 8:53 pm
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