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 Lions the most likely 6-10 team to make the '13 playoffs? 
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3rd Round Selection

Joined: October 19th, 2005, 1:24 pm
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Location: Nottingham, England
Post Lions the most likely 6-10 team to make the '13 playoffs?
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/945 ... e-playoffs

Quote:
Football is coming! Teams are going to be breaking out and surprising the world soon! This is exciting! Last week, I wrote about the more subtle indicators of performance in football and what they meant for the teams at the extreme ends of the success spectrum. At the beginning of that piece, I noted that better than one in four of the teams that go 6-10 or worse in a given season follow that disappointing campaign by making the playoffs. With 10 candidates in line for the dead-cat bounce this year, it would be fair to expect at least two of the league's down-and-out to rise up into an unexpected playoff berth in 2013.

So, which of the 10 teams will make that leap? There's no smoking gun, but after going through those underlying metrics and factoring in some perspective on the real-world dynamics surrounding each organization, I've sorted the teams out by the evidence of a possible leap in their respective favor. There are no guarantees when it comes to these sorts of elite improvements, but I'm pretty confident that the top-ranked team has a significantly better shot of making the playoffs than the bottom-ranked one (#jinxed).

[...]

1. Detroit Lions

Arguments in favor: Underperformed Pythagorean expectation, awful record in close games, faced difficult schedule, fumble recovery rate, turnover differential

Arguments against: Top-heavy team only one injury away from disaster, difficult division

The probable comeback crown belongs to the Lions, who have just about every statistical indicator tracking in their favor. Their 4-12 season saw them produce the point differential of a 6.5-win team while going 3-8 in one-touchdown games. They had the league's third-worst turnover margin at minus-16, likely owing to their defense recovering just six fumbles last year. (Their recovery rate of 32.6 percent was the second-worst in the league.) They've also dumped return man Stefan Logan, who muffed six times last year and somehow took a knee on the 4-yard line. Remember: Sometimes, competency is enough.

Detroit's a scary team to back because they're perpetually running a high-wire act. If one false move puts Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, or Ndamukong Suh on the sideline for any length of time, the team is basically toast. If those guys stay healthy, though, the baseline talent here should be enough to get the Lions past .500 and have them approach the playoffs for the second time in three seasons.


July 10th, 2013, 2:18 pm
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Joined: December 13th, 2005, 2:09 pm
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Post Re: Lions the most likely 6-10 team to make the '13 playoffs
I think any team is a an injury away to a critical component leading to a poor season. The Lions didn't have a running game last year, this year it looks a little more positive. (Pending the results of the revamped OL)

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July 10th, 2013, 9:09 pm
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Fired Head Coach (0-16 record)

Joined: March 5th, 2009, 8:42 pm
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Location: Brooklyn, NY
Post Re: Lions the most likely 6-10 team to make the '13 playoffs
JL wrote:
I think any team is a an injury away to a critical component leading to a poor season. The Lions didn't have a running game last year, this year it looks a little more positive. (Pending the results of the revamped OL)

I'm really hoping our D-Line toughens up the O-line in training camp.

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July 12th, 2013, 3:59 am
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