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 2014 NFL compensatory pick projections 
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5th Round Pick - Traded

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Post 2014 NFL compensatory pick projections
2014 NFL compensatory pick projections

Posted: Friday, February 7, 2014, 2:22 PM

Over the last 2 years, my friend Craig Turner has done compensatory pick projections very accurately for my former football blog. Last year, he correctly matched 24 teams with the correct round for which they received a pick. He projected an additional 5 teams to receive a pick, but missed by just one round. The 3 remaining picks he missed on were due to some gray area, which he learns from every year.

Since the NFL does not make the compensatory pick formula public, learning how to accurately project them for the entire league takes time and practice. Projecting comp picks is fairly complicated, and we'll go deeper into the methodology of projecting them later in the post.

Compensatory picks are typically announced at the NFL owners' meetings, which occur this year from March 23-26.

Compensatory Picks Awarded (round – team – player lost)


3 – Pittsburgh – Mike Wallace

3 – Green Bay – Greg Jennings

4 – San Francisco – Dashon Goldson

4 – Baltimore – Paul Kruger

4 – Detroit – Gosder Cherilus

4 – Baltimore – Dannell Ellerbe

5 – Houston – Connor Barwin

5 – New York Jets – LaRon Landry

5 – Baltimore – Carey Williams

5 – Atlanta – Brent Grimes

5 – Pittsburgh – Keenan Lewis

5 – New York Giants – Martellus Bennett

5 – Baltimore – Ed Reed

5 – Houston – Glover Quin

6 – New York Jets – Mike DeVito

6 – Green Bay – Erik Walden

6 – New York Jets – Dustin Keller

6 – New England – Patrick Chung

6 – Cincinnati – Manny Lawson

6 – St. Louis – Brandon Gibson

6 – New York Jets – Shonn Greene

7 – St. Louis – Bradley Fletcher

7 – Dallas – Mike Jenkins

7 – Cincinnati – Pat Sims

7 – St. Louis – Craig Dahl

7 – St. Louis – Rob Turner

7 – Dallas – Victor Butler

7 – Cincinnati – Brad Gradkowski

7 – Tampa Bay – Geno Hayes

7 – Atlanta – Will Svitek

7 – Atlanta – Christopher Owens

7 – San Diego – Shaun Phillips

7 – Dallas – Kenyon Coleman

7 – Houston – Donnie Jones

7 – Atlanta – Luke McCown

7 – Pittsburgh – Ryan Mundy

7 – Buffalo – net value

7 – Oakland – net value


February 7th, 2014, 6:28 pm
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Post Re: 2014 NFL compensatory pick projections
I thought Comp picks were generated by not just who you lost, but also by who you signed, the value of the contracts of who was lost and who was signed, and their level of play for the new team.

Cliff Avril wouldn't generate a pick? Not even a 7th rounder? But Cherilus gets us a fourth?

If Detroit DOES get a fourth round pick, it would be based on more than just losing Cherilus. He played well for Indy, but not THAT well.

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February 8th, 2014, 9:03 am
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Post Re: 2014 NFL compensatory pick projections
Am I correct in my thinking that comp. picks can't be traded? If so, why not (if anybody knows)?


February 8th, 2014, 5:55 pm
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Post Re: 2014 NFL compensatory pick projections
Boz wrote:
Am I correct in my thinking that comp. picks can't be traded? If so, why not (if anybody knows)?


Comp picks are given to teams to help replace losses in free agency. I think the league just wants to make sure the teams use them as intended on the year they are given.


February 8th, 2014, 8:25 pm
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Post Re: 2014 NFL compensatory pick projections
m2karateman wrote:
I thought Comp picks were generated by not just who you lost, but also by who you signed, the value of the contracts of who was lost and who was signed, and their level of play for the new team.

Cliff Avril wouldn't generate a pick? Not even a 7th rounder? But Cherilus gets us a fourth?

If Detroit DOES get a fourth round pick, it would be based on more than just losing Cherilus. He played well for Indy, but not THAT well.



This was the reasoning from the article I read prior to posting this.

You can read about what goes into determining compensatory picks over at Philly.com, but the gist of it is this: Detroit lost free agents Cliff Avril, Sammie Hill and Justin Durant last year, but those losses were canceled out by the Lions signing Glover Quin, Reggie Bush and Jason Jones. The Lions' loss of Gosder Cherilus to the Indianapolis Colts was not canceled out by any signings, so the Lions are set to get one compensatory pick this year.


February 25th, 2014, 9:33 pm
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Post Re: 2014 NFL compensatory pick projections
m2karateman wrote:
I thought Comp picks were generated by not just who you lost, but also by who you signed, the value of the contracts of who was lost and who was signed, and their level of play for the new team.

Cliff Avril wouldn't generate a pick? Not even a 7th rounder? But Cherilus gets us a fourth?

If Detroit DOES get a fourth round pick, it would be based on more than just losing Cherilus. He played well for Indy, but not THAT well.


You are right. Also in the formula is the players origional draft position. Gos was a 1st round pick. I bet he gets us a 3rd round comp.


February 26th, 2014, 1:07 am
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Post Re: 2014 NFL compensatory pick projections
liontrax wrote:
m2karateman wrote:
I thought Comp picks were generated by not just who you lost, but also by who you signed, the value of the contracts of who was lost and who was signed, and their level of play for the new team.

Cliff Avril wouldn't generate a pick? Not even a 7th rounder? But Cherilus gets us a fourth?

If Detroit DOES get a fourth round pick, it would be based on more than just losing Cherilus. He played well for Indy, but not THAT well.



This was the reasoning from the article I read prior to posting this.

You can read about what goes into determining compensatory picks over at Philly.com, but the gist of it is this: Detroit lost free agents Cliff Avril, Sammie Hill and Justin Durant last year, but those losses were canceled out by the Lions signing Glover Quin, Reggie Bush and Jason Jones. The Lions' loss of Gosder Cherilus to the Indianapolis Colts was not canceled out by any signings, so the Lions are set to get one compensatory pick this year.


Mark my words on this. We will get a 3rd or a 4th round comp pick for Avril. Yes we did sign a FA to replace him. But, we got 3 games out of him before he went on IR. How the FA's performed is also part of the formula.


February 26th, 2014, 1:12 am
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Post Re: 2014 NFL compensatory pick projections
BillySims wrote:
liontrax wrote:
m2karateman wrote:
I thought Comp picks were generated by not just who you lost, but also by who you signed, the value of the contracts of who was lost and who was signed, and their level of play for the new team.

Cliff Avril wouldn't generate a pick? Not even a 7th rounder? But Cherilus gets us a fourth?

If Detroit DOES get a fourth round pick, it would be based on more than just losing Cherilus. He played well for Indy, but not THAT well.



This was the reasoning from the article I read prior to posting this.

You can read about what goes into determining compensatory picks over at Philly.com, but the gist of it is this: Detroit lost free agents Cliff Avril, Sammie Hill and Justin Durant last year, but those losses were canceled out by the Lions signing Glover Quin, Reggie Bush and Jason Jones. The Lions' loss of Gosder Cherilus to the Indianapolis Colts was not canceled out by any signings, so the Lions are set to get one compensatory pick this year.


Mark my words on this. We will get a 3rd or a 4th round comp pick for Avril. Yes we did sign a FA to replace him. But, we got 3 games out of him before he went on IR. How the FA's performed is also part of the formula.

I don't think the Lions will get any more picks. As you said, the FA's performance plays a role is assigning the picks, therefore you have to consider the performance of the guys that left and those who came in.

Guys who left Detroit
Avril Played well for Seattle. Cherilus did well for Indy. Durant and Hill didn't do too much for their teams.

Guys who joined Detroit
Quin and Bush played very well. Arguably contributed more than Avril and Cherilus did to their teams. Jones didn't do too much.

So I'd say in terms of performance, Quin and Bush are offset by Avril and Cherilus, while Durant & Hill are basically a wash with Jones (or maybe a 7th round pick since it's 2 guys vs. 1). In the end, I just don't see another pick coming to Detroit being warranted.

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February 26th, 2014, 3:38 am
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