The latest buzz I heard on Sirius NFL Radio today is that the Rams are seriously considering taking Manziel at #2 overall. That would send shock waves to QB needy teams and could touch off the irrational "Ponder" type picks.

But, it actually makes some sense for St. Louis. Bradford has been barely average and can't stay healthy. But, until today, no-one thought QB was even in play for the Rams. So, if that happens, I could see this happen:

Jax takes Bortles
Cleveland takes Carr

OR

The Rams could be taking the chance that it would force whoever wants Manziel to come to them and make a trade happen. But, that would take some serious balls to do that.

If Manziel goes at 2 it won't mean anything different for the other 2 teams really. Jax can take Mack and Browns can just take Watkins. Raiders would probably be really happy since that means they'll have their pick of the OTs.

This idea that teams would go crazy and start picking all kinds of QBs just doesn't happen. I posted about this before, and I'll say it again: 3 QBs being taken in the first 8 picks has only ever happened 1 time, and that was when Luck and RGIII were in the same draft. The QBs in this draft are not even close to that. Billy, you've posted a lot about the idea that teams will get desperate and make a run on QBs, but history shows us that it simply doesn't happen. Yes, there are times when a team reaches and picks a QB way too early, but multiple teams doing it in the same draft just doesn't happen (or at least, very very very rarely).

In case anyone is wondering, here's exactly what I posted about the QB draft mania idea before (I did some crunching of numbers to get the info):

I just looked back over the past 10 years of drafts, and on average only 2.8 QBs are taken in the first round. But just for conversation's sake let's round that up to 3. If we drill down a bit further and look at QBs taken before the 8th pick, the average drops to 1.45. I'll be generous and round that up to 2. To go a step further, our 2nd pick is #45. If we look at how many QBs have been drafted by that pick, the average is 3.55. Let's round that up to 4. That's not close to 8. In fact, not once in the past 10 years have 8 QBs been picked before the 45th pick. So let's see:

3 QBs gone before pick #8: It's very unlikely to happen. On average, only 2 QBs are taken by then. In fact, 3 QBs being taken by 8 has only happened once, and that was in 2012 when Luck and RGIII were in the same draft. That's a very rare occurrence.
8 QBs gone by pick #45: also very unlikely. I'd say there's zero chance of this happening since it's never happened in the past 10 years. I even went all the way back to 1950, and it has never happened. The closest was in 1983 when there were 6 QBs taken, and that draft included John Elway, Jim Kelly, and Dan Marino. This year's draft doesn't even necessarily have 1 elite QB.

I think two QBs go top ten, Manziel and Bortles. I don't think Manziel is worthy of a top ten pick, but not everyone shares my opinion.

I think Bridgewater will go before the 20th pick, and Derek Carr in late one or early two. Jimmy G may go before Carr.

I think the best thing the Lions could hope for at 10 is that somehow Mike Evans falls to them. I am not totally opposed to the idea of the Lions taking Zack Martin in the first round, but I'd rather see them get someone that can contribute immediately and be an upgrade where it is needed more.

This is how I would set up the Lions board:

1. Sammy Watkins
2. Khalil Mack
3. Jadeveon Clowney
4. Greg Robinson
5. Jake Matthews
6. Mike Evans
7. Anthony Barr
8. Zack Martin
9. Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix
10. Darqueze Dennard
11. CJ Mosley
12. Aaron Donald
13. Justin Gilbert
14. Taylor Lewan
15. Brandin Cooks

My how far Bridgewater has fallen, that pro day killed him. Don't be shocked if Carr is taken before Teddy. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Rams take Johnny Football. He could go anywhere in this draft, but I expect him to go him and not get pass Dallas at 16. Blake should go in the top ten just based on his prototype measurements.

I'm going to use tiers like I do in my FF rankings. I'm going 3 deep at each tier and my general thoughts if we land one...

Tier 1
1. Sammy Watkins
2. Jadeveon Clowney
3. Khalil Mack
* Ecstatic, off the charts, I'll pay attention to the rest of the draft but it is all bonus from here - really love all three

Tier 2
4. Greg Robinson
5. Mike Evans
6. Jake Matthews
* Excited, Evans will look good next to CJ, Robinson and Matthews aren't huge needs at OT but OL looks real good now

Tier 3
7. Aaron Donald
8. Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix
9. Anthony Barr
* Expected, this is where I think the Lions land a player. I've come around more on Donald than just about any player in the draft and he gives us good long-term options at DT, Ha-Ha instantly upgrades the secondary, Barr gives us a pass rusher, not sure what else and he scares me a little

Tier 4
10. Zach Martin
11. CJ Mosley
12. Darqueze Dennard
* Fine, I like each of these players especially if the value is good. Meaning, if we trade down and pick up an extra pick or two I'm liking it better than if we stand pat with a tier 3 player

Tier 5
13. Justin Gilbert
14. Taylor Lewan
15. Calvin Pryor
* Humm, all 3 intrigue for different reasons. I'd really have to let the pick sink in but rounds 2/3 become quite critical now - hope we moved back and picked these guys around the 14-18 range

Tier 6
Johnny Football
Eric Ebron
Odell Beckham Jr.
Ryan Shazier
* Bonus tier - Johnny Football just for the fun of it, but if you draft from this group Martin you better get a bevy of picks and trade back into the first and keep your high 2nd rounder as well

Apparently we're focused on the Jags at #3 for a move up. I'd be ok with that as long as we don't have to give up our second rounder.

I'd prefer to move down and get a bunch of solid players instead of 1 superstar, but having Mack or Watkins would be awesome.

I can see the Jags wanting to move down yet staying in the top ten. I'm guessing they are probably pitting the Lions against the Browns as both would love to add Watkins and think he will be there at 3.

But I'm guessing the Jags will want at a 2nd rounder in return. The Lions have pick 45, the Bills have 41. Last year the Fins moved up to 3 from 12 (ahead of the Lions and took Dion Jordan), cost them their 2nd rounder (to Raiders) which I think was in the early 40's.

your boards are solid but not where are boards are.just a hint gilbert is,nt that high for us.we value tackling ability as well as being able to play off

Dennard must be high on the board. I think he'd be a solid pick, although I'd like him more around pick 15 if possible.

dennard simply does not fit our defence.we have fuller,gilbert,roby all ahead of him,none worth the 10th pick in our opinion.

Glad to hear it! Didn't feel any of the CB's were worth 10. If we don't move, believe it will be Barr or Ebron. Not that excited about Dix. Hope he isn't the choice.

i wouldnt get to comfortable with us at 10.hint hint

allenslions, I have a question for you. Well, I suppose it's two questions. I believe you said you work for the Lions in the scouting department or something like that, correct? If so, are you revealing info you shouldn't be by posting these things here? Don't get me wrong, I enjoy your comments and I like seeing what you have to say, but I just wonder if you're possibly putting yourself in jeopardy with your boss by revealing info about the Lions draft board & plans. Just curious.

Nothing here ever gets picked up by any major media. I tried a few years ago when pablo, myself and m2k were writing regular content updates to get linked with profootballtalk before they were picked up by NBC and they scoffed. He could layout the entire draft board and no one would notice.

Lions value the ability to actually tackle? Since when? LOL