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 Who will the Lions pick? 
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Post Who will the Lions pick?
There is no question that this draft is scattered, but the big question for all lions fans is what direction will the duo of mariucci and millen take at #10? I have been studying this draft for a while and been involved in numerous forums for years. Heres what I have seen so far.
Most people have the lions getting a DE. I call those the "madden users" they look at our team, position by position and say "the DE position needs to be upgraded they have Cory Redding starting". I disagree. Redding is a run stopping DE who was drafted as a DT but never really got serious playing time as a rookie. We moved him to the DE position last season and haven't looked back. Combined with the pass rushing 3rd down skills of Kalimba Edwards, The LDE position had 62 tackles and 10.5 sacks. Those stats are as good as Starting Pro-Bowl DE Jason Taylor who had 40 tackles and 9.5 sacks.
Another direction that I see in the draft is the OT position. I like that. Alex Barron had let up only one sack in his final 2 years at Florida State, reciving all-american honors But at 308 that is a big downgrade size wise to former RT Stockar McDougle. Mariucci is also committed to giving 6th round draft choice Kelly Butler a chance to win the job. Butler was a 3rd round choice who fell to the 6th round due to off the field issues.
Then there is the wildcard. Which falls into place with what cleveland does. assuming Cleveland goes with Derrick Johnson, Alex Smith who should be a top 5 pick, will fall possibly out of the top 20. with Joey Harrington being the next Jeff Tedford mistake and Jeff Garcia too old to be a QB of the future, Smith is an option. At #10, the price will be far less then the figure that Harrington has. But will still cost the team roughly 2 million per year. It took Drew Brees a top flight rookie QB to finally get him to wake up, I see Harrington being in the same situation a year later.

Heres my projected mock draft up to the lions selection...

TRADES:
CLE trades #3 overall to MIN for #7 and #18
MIA trades 2nd round pick (pending Patrick Surtain trade) to IND for RB Edgerrin James
CIN Trades #17 overall pick to GB for #24 and a 2nd round pick

1. SF- Aaron Rodgers QB Cal
I don't like the pick, But it's most likely going to happen
2. MIA- Alex Smith QB Utah
Saban was commiteed to A.J. Feeley for a year but after the James trade Smith's the guy
3. MIN- Braylon Edwards WR Michigan
Minnesota's moles are quietly dicussing the odds of one of the premier recievers falling to them at #7. The odds are aganist them and Cleveland still gets their man, Derrick Johnson at a cheaper price.
4. CHI- Mike Williams WR USC
With an improved offensive line, the running game will be improved. at 5'11", Bobby Wade is destined for slot duties.
5. TB- Ronnie Brown RB Auburn
Would have taken either reciever had they have fallen, but they still get a future RB.
6. TEN- Antrel Rolle CB Miami
Andre Woolfolk and Michael Waddell aren't ready to be shut-down corners in this league.
7. CLE- Derrick Johnson LB Texas
This is where lions fans heart brakes as Cleveland fans get the better of us this year
8. ARI- Carnell Williams RB Auburn
They will take Antrel Rolle if he slips over a RB with only 1 CB (David Macklin) currently on the roster.
9. WAS- Adam Jones CB W. Virginia
Could fall even further with his recently failed urine test.
10. DET- Alex Barron OT Florida State
The "logical" pick according to Pablo.

now the rest w/o comments

11. DAL- Shawne Merriman DE/OLB Maryland
12. SD- Marcus Spears DE LSU
13. HOU- Troy Williamson WR S. Carolina
14. CAR- Cedric Benson RB Texas
15. KC- Carlos Rogers CB Auburn
16. NO- Travis Johnson DT Florida State
17. GB- Thomas Davis S/OLB Georgia
18. CLE- Jammal Brown OT Oklahoma
19. STL- Erasmus James DE Wisconsin
20. DAL- Mark Clayton WR Oklahoma
21. JAX- Khalif Barnes OT Washington
22. BAL- Roddy White WR UAB
23. SEA- Dan Cody DE/OLB Oklahoma
24. CIN- Heath Miller TE Virginia
25. DEN- Demarcus Ware DE/OLB Troy
26. NYJ- Marlin Jackson CB Michigan
27. ATL- David Pollack DE Georgia
28. SD- Brodney Pool S Oklahoma
29. IND- Shaun Cody DE/DT USC
30. PIT- Fabian Washington CB Nebraska
31. PHI- Odell Thurman LB Georgia
32. NE- Barrett Ruud LB Nebraska

Comments would be appretiated, thanks.


April 3rd, 2005, 11:48 pm
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Take it however you want... but here is what Pro Football Talk said about Alex Smith going #2 to Miami...

Quote:
FINS DON'T PLAN TO TAKE QB AT NO. 2

Word out of Miami is that the Dolphins have no plans to select a quarterback with the second choice in the 2005 draft, despite efforts by coach Nick Saban to suggest otherwise.

We've previously surmised that Saban's flirtations with Ricky Williams were an effort to dupe the Browns into thinking that the Fins would go for a signal-caller and not a chain-mover at No. 2, thereby possibly enabling Saban and company to squeeze an extra pick or two out of the Browns for the right to move up one spot and ensure a shot at a quarterback.

In 1998, the Cardinals squeezed a first-round pick, a second-round pick, and RB/KR Eric Metcalf out of the Chargers in exchange for a flip-flop of the No. 2 and No. 3 overall picks, which enabled San Diego to select (gulp) Ryan Leaf.

So the message to the Browns is this -- sit tight and stick to your guns. A quarterback will be there if you want one at No. 3, unless the Dolphins trade down with a team that would take one of them. As to that possibility, the major downside for the Fins is that, even if they swap spots with one of the teams in the top ten that could use a new quarterback (the Titans at No. 6 or the Cards at No. 8), Miami suddenly risks not getting a sniff at any of the three elite running backs.


Consider this as well. Scott Linehan came over from Minnesota. He obviously wants a say in who the starting quarterback is. So what did he do? Go and get the guy who he was successful in Minnesota with; Gus Frerotte.

I would be surprised if they went QB in the first, although I have spoken to someone close to the situation and they thought it could happen. With A.J. Feeley showing some signs of life near the end of the season, Frerotte being the wildcard, there just isn't any room for a quarterback.


April 4th, 2005, 12:52 am
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I understand the Barron pick, but I don't like it nor think it logical. The apparent need on the oline is right tackle. Barron is not a right tackle. The better fit in the draft would probably be Khalif Barnes, but he isn't valued at the 10 spot.

Also as mentioned in other threads the question of certain positions being needs is debateable. For one thing it has been passed on from Kowalski that the Lions are high on Victor Rogers and even more so on Kelly Butler. If you consider the lack of sense of urgency by the Lions to re-sign McDougle it reads correctly. The lions are fine with using the two young tackles on the right side. The other areas that are serviceable are Tight end and safety. It was obvious that strong safety was a hole. They plugged that nicely with Kennoy Kennedy. Free safety was never deemed an area required of addressing by the FO or anyone else... except for fans who perceived Marion to be a liability and those not sold on Holt.

So if you are happy going into battle with Butler and Rogers at Right Tackle, Pollard and Fitzsimmons at tight end, and Holt and Marion at free safety, then our team has no holes... and I believe the Lions organization feels this way as well.

With that in mind... the 10 spot pick and practically every other draft pick will be for either upgrading a serviceable position or adding depth. We can also consider drafting for future needs. For example drafting Barron would make sense if the Lions are absolutely sure that Jeff Backus has no future with Detroit. My read on the situation is that Backus and Detroit like each other and will work something out... so the Barron pick doesn't make sense to me. I don't get the McDougle/Barret Green vibes from him.

Along those same lines future needs include Tight End as Pollard is on the wrong side of 30, defensive tackle because Big Daddy is on the downside of his career and if only they feel Bell isn't starting material, and middle linebacker... which can be adressed by shifting Teddy to the middle or picking someone else up.

On the category of upgrading a serviceable position, I see us drafting either Derrick Johnson and maybe one of two possible defensive ends. Why? Dirty and Lewis are solid serviceable weak side LB's. The 3 headed D-end in Redding/Edwards/Devries also works fine as the opening post mentions. Free Safety is a maybe. Brodney pool is the top ranked 'free' safety. But he is still projected to go in the second round. Would he really upgrade the Holt/Marion tandem?

On the category of adding depth... I see Anrel Rolle being a backup corner unless he becomes the starting FS. There are many DE's that could be added to the rotation. Also taking a top receiver could be either added depth or insurance for injuries.

Really then, it is almost impossible to get a read on what the Lions will do at 10. If DJ falls to 10 I think it's a no brainer... but after that, it's tough to get a read on the direction the Lions want to go. QB too can't be ruled out as it's quite a similar situation as the Drew Brees/Phillip Rivers situation last year. The only thing I can absolutely be sure besides your standard no Kickers/Punters/Fullbacks/Guards at 10... is no running back. Other than that it's a crapshoot.

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April 4th, 2005, 1:31 am
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Honolulu blue has some good points. TE wouldnt be a bad pick. Pollard is elderly in NFL years. I dont like Barron either, Like Lulu said, he's not a right tackle, we want our man in the 2nd round. There are no issues at Free Safety... forget about it! Millen, Mooch, and the Fords all want to see what Torry Holt s little brother can do and I think they let Brock and Terrence battle it out in pre season. Ive mentioned several time s I like a DT(replacement for Big daddy)or DE(help for shaun Rogers so he isnt a wasted talent). I like the Lions sticking to Lines in the first 2 rounds. Olines and Dlines are where games are won and lost. Millen knows that. I also like a WR and a QB in the 3rd and 4th. Im sure there's people the lions have picked, and garuntee contigency plans are in place if they are not! Thats what the "next wave of free agency" is all about

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April 4th, 2005, 3:11 am
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Good points by all. Many of these points are why I'd really like to see the Lions trade down. IMO Miller (TE), Barnes (OG), or a top DE would all be good picks for the Lions but don't warrent the #10. They should all be there in the second half of the 1st, some could even fall into the 2nd. Moving down would surly get the Lions another pick on the first day, which would make it easier for the team to draft a rookie QB with lots of upside. As I've said eleswhere I would love to see that happen. \:D/ The only scenario in which I could see being tempted to stay put would be if DJ were still on the board. Still if they got a good enough offer I could come to terms with the Lions passing on him.

Insider mentioned going for QB & WR in the middle of the draft. I know we've talked alot about QB's but as far WR's go who would you want to see. I find Chris Henry intresting.

http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/playerprofiles/wr/chrishenry.html

I saw him refered to as haveing the physical tools of a top 10 pick but the maturity of a rookie FA :-k could turn out to be a bargin in the 3rd or 4th round. Does anyone know alot about this guy?


April 4th, 2005, 4:00 am
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From what I've read about Chris Henry, some "insiders" consider him to be a possible Randy Moss clone. Build, talent, maturity and attitude all seem to fir the profile. Do ya'll think Mooch could handle a guy like that. I'd like to see him give it a try and see what happens.

What about Taylor Stubblefield WR in the later rounds? Just a thought.


April 4th, 2005, 5:13 am
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California Kid wrote:
Insider mentioned going for QB & WR in the middle of the draft. I know we've talked alot about QB's but as far WR's go who would you want to see. I find Chris Henry intresting.


I've gotta go with Roscoe Parrish. He's a stud.


April 4th, 2005, 7:51 am
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Good post lionsforlife and nice reply HB. While I do still label Barron as "the logical choice" it doesn't mean that I am sold on him or even like him with the tenth pick at this point. It was more the lesser of a number of evils assuming the players I really want won't be around when the Lions select.

The nine guys who will be off the board IMO are:
QB - Rogers & Smith (fine with me)
RB - Brown, Williams & Benson (also fine with me)
WR - Edwards & Williams (now I'm getting bummed out)
LB - Johnson (now I'm sobbing)
CB - Rolle (I could live without)

I'm more convinced of this now than ever with Pac Man screwing up (I'd take Carlos Rogers over him anyway).

Trading down is by far the best option. If that doesn't happen, then I'm hoping somebody (perhaps the Redskins) grabs a DE in the top 10. There could also be a trade that shakes up the 9 taken, but I doubt it since any team moving up is likely to grab one of these guys off the board anyway.

If it shakes out this way, that leaves us with Barron or our choice of DEs. Back to my same starting point - ugggh!

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April 4th, 2005, 1:16 pm
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I like Barron's athleticism. I don't think a tackle with his tools has come along... ever. But I think this piece in the sporting news exemplifies my fears for Barron.

Quote:
... The COWBOYS tried to make Bradie James their starting weakside line-backer last year, but he couldn't beat out Dexter Coakley. This offseason, they gave the job to James after releasing Coakley. James has all the needed physical skills, but he is not instinctive. A better grasp of defensive concepts could make him an impact player...


Basically, what I'm saying is you can have the physical tools, but if you don't have it upstairs, or you don't have the heart or any other of the necessary intangibles we aren't getting our money's worth.

If a less gifted player can beat out the mega athletic football retard then you're getting gipped. In other words... we draft Barron for his 1st round top 10 tools... but in actuality we are only getting 2nd, 3rd maybe 2nd day round play out of him. Then we are better off waiting for Barnes in the 2nd round or trading down.
_______________

I did mention we can draft for a future tight-end, but we are hard pressed to find one in this draft. Unless we trade way way down... the only foreseeable future upgrade, Heath Miller is sure as hell ain't worth the 10th pick anymore. Hernia injuries are chronic... loooooooong term. We draft Miller... we draft a hernia. They are able to play through it, but there will be days where he won't be effective. That's the nature of the beast.

Alex Smith has fell out of favor with most with poor workouts. They said he couldn't catch a ball for his life. Maybe he just dropped his stock to the 3rd round.

Kevin Everret would make for a non-flashy pick. But when you draft a TE out of Miami you think superstar like Shockey or Winslow. Too bad Everett will never be as good as either.

So since the option for drafting a TE would be for the future anyway... it makes more sense to pass on all of them. Unless Heath falls to us in the 2nd or we do some draft-day trades, we're better off waiting for better talent in the next couple of years. Pollard should give us that much time. Also it should give the Lions the opportunity to see if they can develop Casey Fitzsimmons into a solid TE.
________

Anyway Pablo... I guess I would rather take any of the two DE's I rate the highest than Barron. So my shakedown on the draftboard (which seems unlikely to change between now and draft day) is...

1. Derrick Johnson (Trade Up for him if need be)
2. Trade Down Young Man!
3. Antrel Rolle
4. Shawne Merriman
5. Erasmus James
6. Mike Williams
7. Braylon Edwards
8. Aaron Rodgers
9. Alex Smith
10. The rest of the DE mash

20. Barron

Notice how I would probably slit my wrists and pour vinegar on them before I'd reach for a player I didn't think was worth the pick. I'm taking the Best Available dude.

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April 4th, 2005, 3:18 pm
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Post Re: Who will the Lions pick?
lionsforlife wrote:
......I disagree. Redding is a run stopping DE who was drafted as a DT but never really got serious playing time as a rookie. We moved him to the DE position last season and haven't looked back. Combined with the pass rushing 3rd down skills of Kalimba Edwards, The LDE position had 62 tackles and 10.5 sacks. Those stats are as good as Starting Pro-Bowl DE Jason Taylor who had 40 tackles and 9.5 sacks.


Cory Redding was drafted as a DE but couldn't beat out Porcher, so was moved inside to contribute to the rush on obvious passing downs. Also, remember that James Hall was lining up on both sides, so judging that our LDE position got those numbers, they don't necessarily all belong to Edwards/Redding. I would say a good deal of those numbers belonged to Hall. And for Edwards having skills.....that's debatable. He hasn't shown too much since his rookie season, and is a liability against the run.

Given that the Lions are feeling like they have no obvious holes to plug, taking a DE with solid pass rush skills is not such a bad maneuver. And that has nothing to do with 'Madden', it has everything to do with upgrading an area that can be easily upgraded. Redding is a solid run stopper but may never be usable as a pass rusher. Edwards is very close to having the 'bust' label tattoed on his forehead. DeVries is a solid backup, but is not starting material. Mostly, our DE's lack speed to the QB, even Hall, who is more of a power rusher. I would prefer if the Lions could use Hall as our LDE full time and have a speed rusher coming from the blind side. This way if the QB starts to run our speed DE will have enough steam to reach him regardless (unless it's Vick).

I don't think that DE is our most pressing need, it's just that there are some that will be available in round one that will be upgrades over our current roster. After round one's group (Merriman, James, Roth, Cody, Tuck) there is a bit of a fall off. I don't count Pollack in this group, because he has a great motor, but his lack of size and overall athleticism will hurt him in the NFL. I feel he is destined to be a DeVries type player.

IMO the Lions most pressing need is at tight end. Pollard is 33 and Fitzsimmons is better suited to play as a #2 TE. I like Joel Dreesen for round three. Good hands, blocks fairly well and has decent wheels. Showed well at the Senior Bowl and had solid pro day workouts.

As for round one........trade down and go after the BPA.

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April 4th, 2005, 4:25 pm
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:arrow: As much as I would like to grab DJ at #10, I just don't think he'll be there. Too many things that I don't like about Barron. Rolle won't be there either. Edwards or Williams would be hard to pass up there, but again I don't think they'll fall that far. As far as one of the DEs, I think we would be better off to trade down and grab a DE in the 15-25 range and pick up at least another pick. DT can wait for second round.

Ideally trading down for a second round pick taking DE Matt Roth in the first.
Take DT Luis Castillo and ILB Barrett Ruud in the second. Take an OT in the third, QB in the fourth and WR and FB in the 6th and 7th.

This would help upgrade the defense and add depth. If DJ is there at 10 take him or use him for richer trade bait.

:arrow:


April 4th, 2005, 6:31 pm
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No to Barron!!
My choices for the #10 pick is:

1. DJ-(Next Great LB, plays like Arrington)
2. Rolle(Next Great CB, plays like Chris McAllister and maybe even better).
3. Mike Williams(His hands are like velco and he just is a playmaker. Imagine Roy, Mike and Charles WOW!!)
4. Merriman(I think this guy will be a star in his 1st year just a Great talent-tough, mean and makes plays. He is a force that other teams will try to stay away from).


April 5th, 2005, 1:29 pm
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Honolulu_Blue wrote:
I understand the Barron pick, but I don't like it nor think it logical. The apparent need on the oline is right tackle. Barron is not a right tackle. The better fit in the draft would probably be Khalif Barnes, but he isn't valued at the 10 spot.

Really then, it is almost impossible to get a read on what the Lions will do at 10. If DJ falls to 10 I think it's a no brainer... but after that, it's tough to get a read on the direction the Lions want to go. QB too can't be ruled out as it's quite a similar situation as the Drew Brees/Phillip Rivers situation last year. The only thing I can absolutely be sure besides your standard no Kickers/Punters/Fullbacks/Guards at 10... is no running back. Other than that it's a crapshoot.


Barron actually has the potential to develop into a strong right tackle in the future. While he plays LT, and has solid pass protection, he has the body of a RT and can be a dominant RT run blocker.

I was thinking along the same lines with QB. I don't think one falls, but I don't like Harrington, and if one were to fall, we should consider it.

I actually have heard that the Lions have been interested in a wide receiver, either Mike Williams or Braylon Edwards. They aren't content with just giving Rogers the starting gig. If Edwards or Williams were to take a plunge (I think they are both top 7 picks), then they would be considered.


April 5th, 2005, 3:07 pm
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California Kid wrote:

Insider mentioned going for QB & WR in the middle of the draft. I know we've talked alot about QB's but as far WR's go who would you want to see. I find Chris Henry intresting.

I saw him refered to as haveing the physical tools of a top 10 pick but the maturity of a rookie FA :-k could turn out to be a bargin in the 3rd or 4th round. Does anyone know alot about this guy?


Chris Henry has SERIOUS personality issues. His selfishness is beyond reasoning. And I disagree with the notion that he is a top 10 talent, even in this draft. I have him going late second to early third round because he didn't interview well and his maturity issues are well known to all. Usually a player like that develops off-field or locker room problems that teams just don't want to deal with. He is worse than David Boston in that department. And Boston was traded away by a Wide Receiver famished team like San Diego for a mere sixth round pick. I wouldn't want Chris Henry in a Lions uniform any time soon. I'd prefer Courtney Roby or Terrance Murphy to play the slot for us.

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April 5th, 2005, 6:58 pm
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The sleeper picks for the top 10 are Williamson, Merriman, and Pollack.

Let's say two of them make it up into the top 9.

Who drops?

I think this is why the Lions are interviewing Williams and Smith. These guys could be the ones to drop. Merriman going early could trigger a run on DEs, or there could be a run on WRs with four gone after SD's pick at 12. As I said earlier I think the logical people to drop out of the Top 10 are:

1. Pacman, now with drug test
2. One or two of the RBs
3. Mike Williams-at the end of the day he runs a 4.7 and Williamson a 4.3. Is he another Keyshawn?
4. Perhaps DJ could get lost in the shuffle, for while every team could draft him, a game of musical chairs could lead them to pass on him too, since for all his athletic ability he does not have the mean streak some teams like and he is a LB.

Trades are the x-factor, but I think barring a trade up for WRs from SD or MN or a very big move up from Philly, probably nothing will happen.

Wow, one interesting draft.


April 5th, 2005, 7:19 pm
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